Ellis Park Johannesburg is the venue for the first of four test matches between South Africa and New Zealand in the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry tour. The game takes place on Saturday and the Boks will start as the bookmakers favourites
South Africa vs New Zealand, Johannesburg, Kick Off 17:10, Saturday 22nd August
Referee: Matthew Carley (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (RFU), Nika Amashukeli (GRU)
TMO: Mike Adamson (SRU)
Weather Forecast - Johannesburg
South Africa:
South Africa tuned up for this tour with a one off clash with Argentina in Buenos Aires on 8th August and they came out on top 17-10. The Boks scored 2 tries to Argentina’s 1 and held out for the win after late pressure from Los Pumas but it was pretty hard work.
All available guns are now trained on the All Blacks with this test followed by games in Cape Town, Soweto and finally Baltimore in the USA. In terms of the series betting Hollywoodbets have South Africa at 7/20, a tie at 33/10 and New Zealand are 15/2. South Africa to win the series 3-1 is 17/10 and a 4-0 clean sweep for the Boks is 19/10.
The Springboks home fixtures in the first 3 rounds of the Nations Championship pretty much went to plan with bonus point wins over England (45-21), Scotland (42-28) and then Wales (43-0). The All Blacks also have the maximum 15 log points but the Boks have a better points difference.
New Zealand:
New Zealand’s final prep for the first test came against the Bulls at Loftus on Saturday and they came out on top 50-19. They led 24-0 at half time but there was a bit more about the Bulls after the break. The All Blacks still ran in a total of 8 tries and the bookmakers main handicap line of 31.5 points was very accurate.
The All Blacks second tour match saw them thrash the Sharks 54-0 in Durban (half time 14-0). Despite wet condition they ran in 8 tries they easily covered the main pre-match handicap line which had been supported into -38.5 points.
The All Blacks were around -33.5 points on the bookmakers main handicap line for their opening match of the tour against the Stomers in Cape Town. However it was only late on that they put the game to bed with 4 of their 6 tries coming from the 66th minute onwards in a 38-21 victory.
Injury has seen Billy Proctor, Caleb Clarke, George Bell and now Ollie Norris ruled out of this tour before the first test
In the Nations Championship New Zealand are second in the Southern Hemisphere behind the Springboks on points difference. They won all 3 of their recent home matches with a bonus point, starting by edging out France 34-32 in Christchurch in what was Dave Rennie’s first game in charge. In Round 2 in Wellington New Zealand put Italy away 47–17 whilst arguably their most convincing display came in Round 3 at Eden Park where they beat Ireland 40–21.
Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Results & Fixtures
Friday 7th August, Stormers 21-38 New Zealand (Cape Town Stadium)
Tuesday 11th August, Sharks 0-54 New Zealand (Kings Park, Durban)
Saturday 15th August, Bulls 19-50 New Zealand (Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria)
Saturday 22nd August, 1st test: South Africa v New Zealand (Ellis Park, Johannesburg)
Tuesday 25th August, Lions v New Zealand (Ellis Park, Johannesburg)
Saturday, 29th August, 2nd test: South Africa v New Zealand (Cape Town Stadium)
Saturday, 5th September, 3rd test: South Africa v New Zealand (FNB Stadium, Soweto)
Saturday, 12th September, 4th test: South Africa v New Zealand (Baltimore, USA)
Head to Head Results
Sep 2025 RC Wellington New Zealand 10-43 South Africa
Sep 2025 RC Auckland New Zealand 24-17 South Africa
Sep 2024 RC Cape Town South Africa 18-12 New Zealand
Aug 2024 RC Johannesburg South Africa 31-27 New Zealand
Oct 2023 RWC Paris New Zealand 11-12 South Africa
Team News
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Zachary Porthen, 19 Cobus Wiese, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Marco van Staden, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok
New Zealand – revised: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Simon Parker, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Leroy Carter.
The Betting
Updated 18 August 23h16
South Africa -7.5 points at 9/10
New Zealand +7.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle - betting updates and tips will be posted below with the newest post on top
Unders arrives to soften the blow
Posted 23 Aug 09h53
The All Blacks made a mockery of the handicap to win 33-16 and thankfully unders arrived despite a fast start.
I am expecting a handicap of -4.5 Boks in Cape Town but next preview will be Lions v AB's.
South Africa v New Zealand Betting Update
Posted 22 August 14h39
First up, some important team news, with Segner is out for the AB's out and Simon Parker taking his place on the bench.
Unsurprisingly, there's been no significant change to the betting, with South Africa still -6.5 or -7.5, depending on your bookmaker, while the total points line is now 56.5 or 57.5.
I was going to get involved in some last try scorer markets, but unfortunately PokerBet have taken those markets down. I'm heading out to watch the rugby, so I won't be able to check again later.
For the record, I was looking at Jan-Hendrik Wessels to be the last South African try scorer at around the 14/1 mark, while I probably could have got a similar price about Preston to be the last New Zealand try scorer.
There are a couple of other bookmakers who have last try scorer markets available, but they don't include any of the bench players. I can only assume bets would be void in that case, but both players I wanted to take are on the bench, so let's leave it at that.
Enjoy the game. I'm sitting on my under 58.5 points, and I just know there's going to be heaps of pressure!
Look out for the Lions v All Blacks preview which will be out Monday latest!
Game Day at Last!
Posted 22 Aug 07h50
Betting aside I am really excited for this one and as kickoff approaches I find myself leaning towards the Boks at -6.5, it is just a lean and not a bet at thus stage though.
If you fancy the Boks to win a close one here are some markets to consider
SA win by 1-12 exactly 35/20 (1.75/1) at Betxchange
SA win by 1-7 points at 4.2/1 at Betxchange
I can also report that the points line is in from 58.5 to 56.5 which is closer to where I would set it.
Bookies have the handicap and points lines spot on!
Posted 21 Aug 08h19
We had a fascinating and some would say rather lengthy discussion on this Test match on last night's edition of The Handicap, and if you missed the show live, you can click here to watch.
A word of warning: Oracle launches into a documentary on Springbok rugby history at the start, and you may have to wait a while to see Couch Critic contribute to the show!
The betting on this Test match remains stable, and that's a good indication that the bookmakers have got the handicap about right.
If the Boks were to win by 20 points, or New Zealand were to win the match, for example, you'll often hear punters say that the bookmakers got it wrong. But a bookmaker isn't judged on the eventual result relative to the line; what matters is the supply and demand on either side of that line. In this case, the handicap has been pretty much rock solid all week.
I have seen the total points line shift down with one or two bookmakers, but 58.5 is still available, while the handicap continues to range from South Africa -6.5 to -7.5.
Couch Critic also touched on a couple of last try scorer plays during the show, and I'll be back with my selections later today or, at the latest, tomorrow morning.
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Bet: South Africa v New Zealand
Posted 20 August 23h38
Bet: 2 units (1–5) – Under 58.5 points at 9/10 with World Sports Betting.
I never enjoy going unders when New Zealand are playing, as the scoring can quickly get out of control, but I just feel this line is a couple of points too high.
Historically, these sides have played out some high-scoring fixtures, particularly in South Africa, but for the first match of such an important series, I think we are going to get periods where defence dominates.
My opening play is therefore under 58.5 total points.
I'll be keeping a close eye on the betting and will be back to have a look at some of the more exotic markets on Friday and Saturday.
Teams are out, Markets unchanged
Posted 20 Aug 18h22
In the URC team news can spark huge betting movements but when it is strength v strength like we have here there wasn't much doubt about the teams and the odd surprise here or there does not impact the markets
SA are still -6.5 and you can get +7.5 NZL
Total points has not budged at 58.5
The Handicap is back - live at 21h00
Posted 20 Aug 10h23
If you thought the team announcements were the biggest news of the day then think again .......
Our trademark rugby betting show "The Handicap" is live tonight at 21h00 and we will focus on the 1st test - click here to watch or set a reminder
Points lines are out
Posted 19 Aug 12h50
The points line has come out at 58.5 a few points higher than I had hoped - the lads in the forum were hoping for lower
There is still -6.5 on offer but the line has gone -7.5 in places
As you were!
Posted 18 August 23h24
After some money for the All Blacks the line is stable at SA -6.5.
I have been keeping an eye on whatsapp groups and predict the line will go out to -7.5 over the next couple of days.
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
More rugby bets from Brent can be found in the Currie Cup Blog whilst tips from other members of our community are posted on the weekly rugby thread on our brand new discussion forum. If you haven't done so already, register a forum account here.
