Round 2 of the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific season is in the books, and the early shape of the competition is starting to emerge. In this blog we keep an eye on all things betting related including early handicap projections, before settling on a betting strategy.
Bet: Brumbies v Blues
Posted 28 Feb 09h02
1 unit Blues win at 21/20 at Betxchange
The Brumbies are -6.5 with a points line of 55.5 and what looks like good conditions.
The Blues have yet to fire this season and while I cannot argue the Brumbies are favourites I priced this a lot closer at -2.5 and I think the value lies with the visitors.
Hoping Saturday goes better!
Posted 27 Feb 23h10
The Highlanders were never in the running against the Reds and I am pleased I went for a smaller ML bet rather than a handicap play.
Still its a losing Friday and hopefully things will turn on Saturday although I am not strong on much.
Bet: Drua v Hurricanes & Chiefs v Crusaders
1 unit double Drua +12.5 onto Crusaders +8.5 at 5/2 at Betxchange
My strategy reflects my lack of feel for Super Rugby at the moment.
I am expecting improvement from the Drua at home to the Canes who were impressive last week. The points line is 52.5 but that is where I have been doing my money in this tournament so I will stick to the handicap.
In the 2nd game the handicap is Chiefs -8.5 which is just where I set it. There is plenty of quality in this Crusaders team though and I was actually looking for either team by 8 or less but could not find it so will throw the Crusaders plus into a double. The points line is 55.5 and that looks about right.
Just the one Friday bet!
Posted 26 Feb 23h01
I am going to sit the Moana Pasifika v Force game out. Pasifika are currently -64.5 and the points line is 64.5 but I will be in meetings and if I am going to lose on this game I would like to at least watch my money disappear.
Bet: 1 unit Highlanders win at 15/10 at WSB
The Highlanders were -0.5 when I 1st saw the betting and the Reds have been backed to -3.5.
The Reds were well beaten by the Waratahs in week 1 and although I expect them to come out firing the Highlanders have looked good and I think they can get an invaluable away win.
The points line is 52.5 which looks about right.
Betting Update
Posted 25 Feb 20h25
Teams have been announced and here is the latest betting - original lines in brackets
Moana Pasifika -5.5 (-1.5) v Western Force, Points 64.5
Queensland Reds -3.5 (+0.5) v Highlanders, Points 52.5
Fijian Drua +12.5 (+14.5) v Hurricanes
Chiefs -7.5 (-8.5) v Crusaders
Brumbies -7.5 (-7.5) v Blues
A 4 point move in favour of Moana
A 4 point move in favour of the Reds
Round 3 Handicaps are up!
Posted 23 Feb 07h05
The handicaps are up at Betxchange and in brackets next to my projections
Moana Pasifika -3.5 (-1.5) v Western Force
Queensland Reds -4.5 (+0.5) v Highlanders
Fijian Drua +10.5 (+14.5) v Hurricanes
Chiefs -8.5 (-8.5) v Crusaders
Brumbies -2.5 (-7.5) v Blues
A 5 point difference in the Reds and Brumbies games and 4 in the Drua. I would be surprised if the line in the Reds and Blues games did not move closer to mine during the week.
Super Rugby Pacific – Round 3 Fixtures & Handicap Projections
Posted 22 Feb 11h52
Below are my projected handicaps which I will compare to the bookies on Monday.
Moana Pasifika -3.5 v Western Force
Queensland Reds -4.5 v Highlanders
Fijian Drua +10.5 v Hurricanes
Chiefs -8.5 v Crusaders
Brumbies -2.5 v Blues
Round 2 results Recap
Posted 22 Feb 10h30
Before turning our attention to the Round 3 betting markets, let’s recap the key results from last weekend and look at how the standings are shaping up.
Hurricanes 52–10 Moana Pasifika – I was on the under 67.5 and it looked like a comfortable win but a late burst meant it was a tense final minute.
Waratahs 36–13 Fijian Drua – I was on the Waratahs -13.5 which landed easily to complete a good Friday.
Highlanders 23–26 Chiefs – I was on the over 53.5 here and it was always under pressure
Western Force 32–42 Blues – worst play of the weekend as I was on under 56.5. I never watched the game thank goodness.
Crusaders 24–50 Brumbies – I like the Brumbies plus but had a late Saturday night and clean forgot about this one. What a win for the Brumbies.
League Table Update
After two rounds, the ACT Brumbies and NSW Waratahs sit at the top of the table with perfect 2-from-2 records, both on 10 points. The Chiefs remain well placed in third after their narrow win in Dunedin, while the Hurricanes’ big victory sees them climb into the top four despite having played one fewer match.
The Blues and Highlanders are both sitting on five points, having split their opening two fixtures, while Moana Pasifika have at least shown competitiveness early in the season.
At the other end of the table, it has been a difficult start for the Crusaders, Reds, Drua and Western Force, all of whom are still searching for consistency and their first win heading into Round 3.
I will be back with my round 3 handicap projections later today
