The URC is back and in this blog we will track all things betting related and will also share bets on selected matches.
Round 10 Wrap
Posted 25 Jan 09h36
The thinking that we would get close games was spot on with 11 points the biggest winning margin but I my combinations were off and the bookies finished ahead.
Biggest disappointment was the Edinburgh ML play especially after the money came for them and I am kicking myself for not backing the Sharks to win having taken the 22/1 HT/FT option.
This weekend was a rugby write off for me in terms of viewing and I will be able to get more involved next week.
Giving the 1–12 Double Another Go
Posted 24 Jan 11h17
BET: 1 unit (1–5) Ulster 1–12 and Leinster 1–12 at 5.37/1 at Betxchange
The weather looks fairly poor for both of these fixtures, and in each match the away side is installed as a 7.5-point favourite and I am expecting competitive contests rather than one-sided affairs.
I am going with a couple of narrow away wins, with conditions likely to keep scores down and margins tight.
Legs:
Ulster 1–12 at 15/10
Leinster 1–12 at 31/20
Value Play: Stormers v Sharks
Posted 24 Jan 09h11
BET: 0.5 unit (1–5) Stormers/Sharks HT/FT at 22/1 (BetOlimp)
The handicap in this match currently sits at Stormers -11.5 or -12.5, depending on where you shop. The points line is 52.5, and conditions are expected to be good, although there is still some uncertainty around the state of the pitch. Aimee Barrett-Theron is on the whistle, so if pushed, I would normally lean towards the unders.
However, I have a feeling this Sharks side has turned a corner. Despite money coming for the home team (they opened at -10.5), I think the visitors are capable of staying within the handicap. There has been plenty of discussion on X about the Sharks’ loaded bench, and they look well equipped to finish strongly.
That has pushed me towards a half-time/full-time angle, and I was surprised to see this price . At 22/1, it is worth a small speculative play.
I will probably show the Sharks handicap into a multiple later but as mentioned in the Friday wrap I cannot watch so won't be getting too involved.
Friday Wrap
Posted 24 Jan 08h59
I called close games and we got them, with a draw and a pair of two-point victories. Unfortunately, the results never fell my way though and I head into Saturday behind the bookies.
Once again, it is a day where I cannot watch much rugby, so I will not be flying into big bets. Instead, I will look to pick up the odd double or exotic at a decent price here and there.
Below are the current handicaps and points lines.
Scarlets +7.5 v Ulster (44.5)
Connacht +7.5 v Leinster (46.5)
Stormers -12.5 v Sharks (52.5)
Cardiff -7.5 v Benetton (42.5)
Zebre +17.5 v Glasgow (47.5)
A 1–12 Friday Night Double!
Posted 23 Jan 18h48
BET: 1 unit (1–5)
Selection: Edinburgh 1–12 & Ospreys 1–12
Odds: 3.64/1 (Sportingbet)
I’ll be at a pre-wedding braai tonight and can say with certainty that the rugby won’t be on, so this is just a small-interest play.
With miserable weather expected across much of the weekend, I am anticipating a number of tight, low-scoring contests. On that basis, the 1–12 winning margin markets appeal, and I’m happy to take a chance on both Edinburgh and Ospreys edging narrow victories.
Below is the latest betting and points lines
Ospreys -4.5 v Lions (39.5)
Edinburgh -2.5 v Bulls (38.5)
Munster -16.5 v Dragons (45.5)
Scarlets +7.5 v Ulster
Connacht +7.5 v Leinster
Stormers -13.5 v Sharks (52.5)
Cardiff -7.5 v Benetton (42.5)
Zebre +17.5 v Glasgow (47.5)
Bet: Edinburgh v Bulls
Posted 23 Jan 00h02
BET: 2 units (1–5)
Selection: Edinburgh to win at 29/25 at Betxchange
The Bulls opened as underdogs for this clash, but there has been steady support for them in the market and they are now narrow favourites at the time of writing. They were impressive in their win over Pau last week, a result I backed at 4/1, but I am not convinced they can produce back-to-back performances of that level.
Edinburgh remain a formidable side at home and also boast a strong record against the Bulls in this fixture when playing in Scotland. Both teams look well balanced on paper, but I give the edge to the hosts.
The points line is set at 42.5. My initial lean was towards the overs, but the latest forecast suggests heavy wind and possible rain, which should make attacking rugby difficult.
All things considered, I am siding with an Edinburgh home win, and this will be my main focus for Friday night.
Betting Update with Points Lines
Posted 22 Jan 22h22
Here are the latest handicaps with points line for Fridays games reflecting wet and windy conditions
Ospreys -3.5 v Lions (42.5)
Edinburgh +1.5 v Bulls (42.5)
Munster -17.5 v Dragons (47.5)
Scarlets +7.5 v Ulster
Connacht +7.5 v Leinster
Stormers -10.5 v Sharks
Cardiff -7.5 v Benetton
Zebre +10.5 v Glasgow
Weather for Round 10
Posted 22 Jan 22h18
Below the current weather forecasts and links to Time and Date.com for updates - some miserable conditions expected.
Ospreys v Lions - cold at 6 degrees, rain all day, windy 46km/h, humidity early 90's
Edinburgh v Bulls - cold at 6 degrees, drizzle all day, wind 30km/h, humidity early 90's
Munster v Dragons - 5 degrees, showers all day, wind 33km/h, humidity late 90's
Scarlets v Ulster - 8 degrees, showers, wind 27km/h, humidity late 80's
Connacht v Leinster - 8 degrees, showers, wind 27km/h, humidity late 80's
Stormers v Sharks - 20 degrees, clear, humidity mid 70's
Cardiff Rugby v Benetton - 7 degrees, rain, humidity late 80's
Zebre v Glasgow - 4 degrees, rain, humidity mid 90's
All is quiet on the betting front
Posted 21 Jan 07h15
URC Round 10 - latest handicaps in brackets next to opening lines
Ospreys -3.5 (-3.5) v Lions
Edinburgh -0.5 (+2.5) v Bulls
Munster -20.5 (-20.5) v Dragons
Scarlets +7.5 (+7.5) v Ulster
Connacht +7.5 (+7.5) v Leinster
Stormers -10.5 (-10.5) v Sharks
Cardiff Rugby -7.5 (-7.5) v Benetton
Zebre +10.5 (+10.5) v Glasgow Warriors
2+ Point Movers
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Edinburgh v Bulls: moved from Edinburgh -0.5 to Edinburgh +2.5 (3-point swing)
Not a lot of betting action this week but could it be the calm before the storm.
URC Round 10 – Opening Handicaps
Posted 19 Jan 15h35
We have betting, opening lines below.
Ospreys -3.5 v Lions
Edinburgh -0.5 v Bulls
Munster -20.5 v Dragons
Scarlets +7.5 v Ulster
Connacht +7.5 v Leinster
Stormers -10.5 v Sharks
Cardiff Rugby -7.5 v Benetton
Zebre +10.5 v Glasgow Warriors
Latest URC Outright Betting
Posted 19 Jan 12h55
Leinster 4/5
Stormers 67/20
Glasgow Warriors 43/7
Munster 8/1
Blue Bulls 10/1
Ulster Rugby 14/1
The Sharks 33/1
Lions 79/1
You can get 149/1 and better the balance
Log Update after Round 9
The URC log is beginning to take clear shape as we head into Round 10, with the DHL Stormers setting the early pace after a perfect start to the season. They sit top on 36 points, but Glasgow Warriors remain firmly in the hunt in second on 34 points, having played one more match.
Ulster, Cardiff, Leinster and Munster form a tightly packed chasing group, all within a single win of each other and jostling for prime playoff positions inside the top six. Below them, the Lions currently occupy seventh and are clinging to a playoff spot where they are fighting with the likes of 8th placed Benetton, Ospreys and Edinburgh with the Bulls, Connacht, Dragons and Sharks also in the hunt but with little room for error.
Zebre and Scarlets bring up the rear and look to have too much to do to finish top 8.
Fixtures
Friday
Ospreys v Lions, 21:45, Dunraven Brewery Field
Edinburgh v Vodacom Bulls, 21:45, Hive Stadium
Munster v Dragons RFC, 21:45, Virgin Media Park
Saturday
Scarlets v Ulster, 17:00, Parc y Scarlets
Connacht v Leinster, 19:30, Dexcom Stadium
DHL Stormers v Hollywoodbets Sharks, 19:30, DHL Stadium
Zebre Parma v Glasgow Warriors, 21:45, Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi
Cardiff Rugby v Benetton, 21:45, Cardiff Arms Park
I will be back when we have some outright and match betting to look at