The URC continues from 9 to 11 October with the Round 3 matches. In this blog, we’ll review Round 2 from a betting angle and keep an eye on markets and news as the weekend approaches.
Bet: Leinster v Cardiff
Posted 10 October 19h11
2 units (1–5): Cardiff under 16.5 points at 1.87/1 with PokerBet
The handicap has shifted from an opening call of Leinster -21.5 to -23.5 as the punters have come for the home team, although it has been fairly stable since the teams were announced.
The total-points line is set at 56.5. While I had seen that some rain was possible, my connections in Dublin suggest conditions should be decent.
Leinster have tended to build their previous campaigns on a strong defence, especially at home, and I’m backing them to restrict Cardiff to 16 points or fewer.
Bet: Scarlets v Benetton and Ulster v Munster
Posted 10 October 17h42
1 unit (1–5): Scarlets by 1–12 points at 15/10 and Ulster by 1–12 points at 1.37/1 — double at 4.93/1 with World Sports Betting
It has been a terrible day for me on the tipping front, although I did have a stroke of good fortune in the Bulls v Lions game, which I’ve outlined in the forum.
I’m not going to get too involved in the rest of the action. For now, I’m having a speculative 1–12 winning-margin double on the Scarlets and Ulster to win their respective matches narrowly, at just under 5/1.
The points lines are 45.5 in the Scarlets game and 46.5 in the Ulster match. I considered overs plays in both, but with rain around, I would rather stick to this speculative option.
I also don’t have any confidence in the handicaps, with the Scarlets at -5.5 and Ulster at -4.5.
I’ll have a look at the Leinster game later, although I cannot guarantee a bet at this stage.
Bet: Zebre v Edinburgh
Posted 10 October 11h00
2 units (1–5): Over 51.5 points at 0.87/1 with World Sports Betting
Given that this game kicks off at the same time as Stormers v Sharks, I’m not going to be giving it much attention.
However, the last two meetings between the sides have both finished around the 60-point mark and, from what I’ve seen, conditions should be good come kick-off.
I’m going to have a play on the overs.
Bet 2: Bulls v Lions
Posted 10 October 10h39
2.5 units (1–5): Lions over 22.5 points at 0.93/1 with PokerBet
At the risk of putting all my eggs in one basket, I’m following up my Lions handicap play with an overs bet on their team points.
The total-points line has been set at 56.5, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that edge up by a point or two. The weather looks set to be good at Loftus, and I prefer the Lions team total overs to the match total overs.
A quick update on the points in Cape Town: the line has been set at 50.5. I’ll probably wait to see how the Loftus game goes before deciding whether to get involved.
Bet: Stormers v Sharks
Posted 10 October 07h56
2 units (1–5): Stormers -8.5 points at 0.96/1 with Betxchange
The Stormers have moved from -6.5 to -8.5 following the team announcements.
While the handicap looks fairly well set, I’m leaning towards the home team, who I believe can draw clear over the final 20 minutes with a very strong bench.
The Sharks have certainly been impressive during the opening two rounds, but I’m with the home team today.
We’re still waiting for the points lines in what should be good conditions in Cape Town. I’ll likely be back later in the day with another bet, either on the points or potentially in the player try-scorer markets.
Bet: Bulls v Lions
Posted 10 October 07h34
3 units (1–5): Lions +10.5 points at 17/20 with Hollywoodbets
1 unit (1–5): Lions to win at 31/10 with Betxchange
I’m really looking forward to this game and have run out of patience waiting for the points lines, although I may still get further involved later in the day.
I fancy the Lions to give the Bulls a real game, and I’m expecting this one to go down to the wire.
The Bulls probably have the edge on paper, but I find myself in Oracle’s camp on this one and reckon an upset could be on the cards.
Betting update and early points lines
Posted 09 October 13h55
Below are the latest handicaps heading into the weekend, as well as the available points lines for Friday night’s matches.
Dragons -2.5 v Ospreys, points 48.5 - raining now, but should clear well before kickoff
Glasgow Warriors -7.5 v Connacht, points 44.5 – Glasgow have moved in from -9.5 - rain expected
Bulls -10.5 v Lions
Zebre +7.5 v Edinburgh
Stormers -8.5 v Sharks
Ulster -4.5 v Munster
Scarlets -4.5 v Benetton
Leinster -23.5 v Cardiff – Leinster have moved out from -21.5
Bet: Glasgow v Connacht
Posted 8 October 23h03
3 units (1–5): Connacht +9.5 points at 17/20 with Hollywoodbets
Money has come for Connacht, who have been backed from +11.5 to +9.5, and they have certainly selected a strong team for this one.
I can’t argue with Glasgow being favourites at home, but I feel the support for Connacht is justified, and I reckon this Irish side will push the Scots all the way.
I’ll look at the points markets when they become available, although the bookmakers appear to be trading cautiously in that regard. For now, I’m going with the handicap play.
In Friday night’s other game, the Dragons are -2.5 at home to the Ospreys. I’ll also look at the points line tomorrow, but there is a good chance I’ll sit that game out as my focus will be on Glasgow v Connacht, which kicks off at the same time.
Money for the Stormers!
Posted 07 Oct 17h09
The Stormers have edged out a point to -7.5 from -6.5 after naming a Bok-laden team and all other handicaps are stable
Glasgow Warriors -11.5 v Connacht
Dragons -2.5 v Ospreys
Bulls -8.5 v Lions
Stormers -7.5 v Sharks
Zebre +7.5 v Edinburgh
Scarlets -3.5 v Benetton
Ulster -4.5 v Munster
Leinster -21.5 v Cardiff
URC outright betting update
Posted 5 October 22h39
Here’s an outright betting update on the United Rugby Championship after Round 2, with Leinster still trading as 8/5 favourites despite losing both their opening games.
The South African teams, the Bulls and the Stormers, are next in the betting at 3/1 and 7/2. You have to go a little further down to find the Sharks and the Lions at 20/1 and 25/1 respectively.
Leinster 8/5
Vodacom Bulls 3/1
DHL Stormers 7/2
Glasgow Warriors 5/1
Munster 12/1
Ulster 20/1
Hollywoodbets Sharks 20/1
Lions 25/1
Connacht 50/1
Edinburgh 66/1
Odds subject to change
URC Week 3 early handicaps
Posted 05 Oct 17h15
Early lines are up and below is how they compare to my projections:
Glasgow Warriors -11.5 v Connacht (My projection: Glasgow Warriors -8.5)
Dragons -2.5 v Ospreys (My projection: Dragons -3.5)
Vodacom Bulls -8.5 v Lions (My projection: Vodacom Bulls -5.5)
DHL Stormers -6.5 v Hollywoodbets Sharks (My projection: DHL Stormers -4.5)
Zebre Parma +6.5 v Edinburgh (My projection: Zebre Parma +10.5)
Scarlets -3.5 v Benetton (My projection: Scarlets -3.5)
Ulster -4.5 v Munster (My projection: Ulster -3.5)
Leinster -21.5 v Cardiff Rugby (My projection: Leinster -16.5)
Leinster game the biggest difference at 5 points with a 4 point difference in Zebre game and 3 points in Glasgow and Bulls games.
Round 3 Handicap Projections
Posted 05 October 08h04
Below are my handicap projections which I will compare to the bookies early lines
Glasgow Warriors -8.5 v Connacht
Dragons -3.5 v Ospreys
Vodacom Bulls -5.5 v Lions
DHL Stormers -4.5 v Hollywoodbets Sharks
Zebre Parma +10.5 v Edinburgh
Scarlets -3.5 v Benetton
Ulster -3.5 v Munster
Leinster -16.5 v Cardiff Rugby
ROUND 2 REVIEW
Cardiff 40 Zebre 27
Cardiff were well backed from -17.5 to -20.5. Although they won the game, it was Zebre who beat the handicap.
I had an interest in under 52.5 points, but this bet proved well off the mark.
Edinburgh 17 Stormers 13
The Stormers were backed into slight favourites for this game but failed to deliver, mainly as a result of some terrible work at lineout time.
Conditions weren’t as bad as expected, but fortunately my solid play on under 48.5 points arrived fairly comfortably.
Benetton 19 Connacht 22
Benetton were slight favourites, but I fancied underdogs Connacht to pull off the win.
They looked good in the first half, but Benetton then took control of the match and it appeared extremely unlikely that Connacht would deliver the bet. The visitors were my biggest play of the evening at odd of 13/10.
Connacht stayed in the fight, though, and broke through for a late try before holding on to win the match.
Lions 35 Ospreys 19
This was the massive disappointment of the weekend for me.
The Lions started as -12.5 favourites, so minus backers collected, but I needed over 57.5 points. Not only did I have a straight bet on the game, but I also had a number of multiples ending on it.
The match was a little stop-start early on, but things eventually opened up. Unfortunately, the Lions missed five successive conversions and that ended up costing me the win and pretty much ruined my weekend.
Dragons 38 Scarlets 26
My initial leaning was towards the Dragons, who opened as half-point favourites. However, I felt I had missed the boat at -3.5 and decided to pretty much sit the game out, placing only a small speculative bet on the draw.
Sharks 26 Leinster 20
Leinster opened as -6.5 favourites, but there was a massive turnaround in the betting after the teams were announced and the Sharks loaded their starting side and bench with internationals.
It was a good game to watch, and my 2/1 Leinster play was certainly a runner at times. In the end, though, the Sharks held on for a six-point victory.
Glasgow Warriors 33 Ulster 33
Glasgow Warriors were well backed and started at -15.5, but they failed to justify that heavy favouritism.
Ulster produced a much-improved performance following their Week 1 effort, with the teams eventually playing out a thrilling draw.
I had taken a bigger Glasgow handicap at -21.5 and needless to say my poor Saturday continued.
Munster 26 Vodacom Bulls 22
I backed the Bulls at 13/10 in a game where the lead changed hands several times.
In the end, Munster were too strong at home and won by four points, which was very close to where the bookmakers had set the handicap.
URC table update
The Hollywoodbets Sharks currently top the table with a full house of points after two matches. Cardiff, the Lions and Edinburgh round out the top four.
Looking at the other South African teams, the Bulls are seventh and the Stormers eighth. Defending champions Leinster currently sit 13th with three points from their opening two matches.
Round 3 fixtures
Friday, 9 October
Glasgow Warriors v Connacht – 20:45, Scotstoun Stadium
Dragons v Ospreys – 20:45, Rodney Parade
Saturday, 10 October
Vodacom Bulls v Lions – 13:30, Loftus Versfeld
DHL Stormers v Hollywoodbets Sharks – 16:00, DHL Stadium
Zebre Parma v Edinburgh – 16:00, Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi
Scarlets v Benetton – 18:30, Parc y Scarlets
Ulster v Munster – 18:30, Affidea Stadium
Leinster v Cardiff – 20:45, Laya Arena
I’ll be back later today or on Monday morning with my handicap projections for Week 3.