United Rugby Championship, Week 5 Betting Blog

URC Week 5 Betting Review

Posted 26 Oct 09h56

Aside from the now regular disappointment on the Sharks and the Zebre unders it was a pretty good weekend with the wrap below. With URC taking a break look out for the Internationals Blog which will be up Monday morning latest. 

Glasgow 21–12 Bulls

• Bet: 3 units Glasgow -8.5 @ 0.93/1

• Result: Glasgow won by 9, just enough to cover.
  ✅ Win

Lions 49–31 Ulster

• Bet: 4 units Over 52.5 points @ 0.87/1 at WSB

• Result: 80 points scored in an open game at Ellis Park to land the newsletter bet - click here to get my weekly e-mail, its compulsory .
  ✅ Win

Sharks 29–19 Scarlets

• Bet: 3 units Sharks -18.5 @ 0.93/1

• Result: Sharks won by 10, well short of the cap which started -23.5. Not included in the blog I also took a late call to back Sharks over 5.5 tries which despite 3 tries in 20 minutes lost as they could only get 1 try in the last 60 minutes.
  ❌ Loss

Leinster 50–26 Zebre

• Bet: 3 units Zebre under 13.5 points @ 11/10 

• Result: Zebre crossed 26, comfortably over the target and this bet was done and dusted 30 minutes into the match.
  ❌ Loss

Benetton 16–31 Stormers

• Bet: 1 unit Points Range 42–48 inclusive @ 33/10 

• Result: Total points = 47, right in the chosen band and nice to land a speculative play on a game where I never fancied anything strong.
  ✅ Win

Dragons 19–19 Ospreys

• Bet: 3 units Under 48.5 points @ 0.94/1 

• Result: 38 points scored in a wet, scrappy draw which I am pleased to say I didn't watch.
  ✅ Win

Munster 17–15 Connacht

• Bet: 3 units Under 48.5 points @ 0.94/1 

• Result: Just 32 points scored in a tense derby.
  ✅ Win

Cardiff 20–19 Edinburgh

• Bet: 2 units Cardiff 1–12 winning margin @ 25/20 

• Result: Cardiff edged it by 1, right in the range.
  ✅ Win

BET: Munster v Connacht

Posted 25 Oct 19h50

3 units Under 48.5 points at 0.94/1 at Betxchange.

The handicap has shifted out to -10.5 Munster, from an opening call of -9.5 but I’m steering clear of the cap and focusing on the points line instead. Conditions in Limerick look like they could make this a more attritional contest, and with both teams missing internationals, attacking fluency might suffer.

At 48.5, I’m happy to take unders in what could be a tighter battle than the market expects.

BET: Cardiff v Edinburgh

Posted 25 Oct 19h46

2 units Cardiff 1–12 points winning margin at 25/20 at Supersportbet.*

This is my first bet at Supersportbet and I’m still getting a feel for their site, but this price is better than I’ve seen elsewhere.

Cardiff opened -3.5 and the line has since pushed out to -5.5, with Edinburgh hard hit by internationals not being available. I don’t have a firm view on the cap or the 47.5 points line (there could be showers about), so I’m siding with Cardiff to edge it in a tight one.

BET: Leinster v Zebre

Posted 25 Oct 16h02

3 units Zebre Under 13.5 points at 11/10 at Hollywoodbets

This handicap opened -28.5 and shortened to -21.5 before settling around -23.5. Leinster are without something like 26 internationals, but even with a heavily depleted squad they still field a decent side.

I’m backing them to keep Zebre to 13 points or fewer in what could be tricky conditions.

The total points line is 51.5 

BET: Benetton v Stormers

Posted 25 Oct 09h07

1 unit Points Range 42–48 inclusive at 33/10 at Hollywoodbets

Something a bit different for this one as I’m battling to find a confident angle. Benetton have shortened from +4.5 into +1.5 after team news, and if pushed I’d lean their way.

The 46.5 points line almost tempted me into overs, but this pitch doesn’t always hold up well and, although conditions are dry, it could still feel humid. Instead, I’m taking a speculative stab that we land in the 42–48 points range.

BET: Dragons v Ospreys

Posted 25 Oct

3 units Under 48.5 points at 0.94/1 at Betxchange

The handicap has been steady all week in the +6.5 to +7.5 range for the Dragons, which is exactly where I had it projected, so I’m turning my attention to the points line instead.

The last two meetings between these sides at Rodney Parade have produced 44 and 25 points, and with rain expected throughout the day, I’m siding with a low-scoring contest. Under 48.5 looks the play here.

BET: Lions v Ulster

Posted 25 Oct 08h25

4 units Over 52.5 points at 0.87/1 at WSB

The handicap has been fairly stable around Lions +1.5. I had projected Lions +5.5 but that didn’t fully account for the missing Irish internationals, so I don’t have a firm view on the match result or the handicap.

Conditions look perfect in Joburg and the 52.5 points line is enough to tempt me into an overs play. Ulster have been free-scoring this season, hitting at least 28 points in every game, and if the Lions can sharpen up their finishing, we should get the points needed to land this bet.

Betting Update and Friday Recap 

Posted 25 Oct 08h05

A busier than expected Friday and a late night which included 3 funneled beers means I am bit behind schedule and I am going to start looking at todays games soon. 

Nice to sneak in on the -8.5 last night, I couldn't watch but was tracking the scores. 

The Sharks line has moved as expected and is now -22.5 from -18.5 and I am unlikely to do anything further in that game. 

Here is the latest betting

• Lions +1.5 v Ulster, Points 52.5

• Sharks -22.5 v Scarlets, Points 51.5

• Leinster -24.5 v Zebre, Points 53.5

• Benetton +0.5 v Stormers, Points 46.5

• Dragons +7.5 v Ospreys, Points 48.5

• Cardiff -5.5 v Edinburgh, Points 47.5

• Munster -8.5 v Connacht, Points 48.5

BET: Glasgow v Bulls

Posted 24 Oct 07h40

3 units Glasgow -8.5 at 0.93/1 at Betxchange.

This handicap opened Bulls +10.5 and has since shifted to +8.5 after team news confirmed some Bok players in the lineup. Even so, this Glasgow side looks strong and I’ve not seen anything from the Bulls on tour to get excited about.

I’ll take the -8.5 now as I can’t see this line coming in any further and I think it could even edge back out to double digits. I’ll likely have a look at the points markets closer to kick-off, but for now Glasgow on the minus is the call.

BET: Sharks v Scarlets

Posted 24 Oct 07h25

3 units Sharks -18.5 at 0.932/1 at Betxchange.

One of my original radio show guests back in the pre-YouTube days, RuggaBugga, used to say “scared money don’t make money”  and lining up another Sharks play here, I must admit this does feel a lot like scared money.

They don’t click into gear often, mind you, but surely they can hammer this Scarlets team? The handicap opened at -16.5, which is very much where I set it, but I’ve already seen -20.5 in places. For me this is a Sharks minus or no bet and I think now is the time to get on.

I’ll also have a look at the points lines on Saturday morning but for now the minus play.

Bulls shorten after team news 

Posted 23 Oct 15h54 

The Bulls have come in from +10.5 to +8.5 as forecast by Southpaw in the forum. This is on the back of team news. 

Personally I am not rushing in yet as quite like the team Glasgow are putting out as well 

Our Rugby Betting show THE HANDICAP is live at 21h00 on Thursday (tonight) - click here to watch on You Tube 

United Rugby Championship – Round 5 Teams, Weather & Officials

Friday, 24 October 2025

Glasgow v Bulls – Scotstoun Stadium, 20:45
Weather: Cold, overcast with drizzle, humidity high 70's - click here for updates 
Referee: Craig Evans (Wales)
Assistant Referees: Mike Adamson (Scotland), Ru Campbell (Scotland)
TMO: Keith David (Wales). 

Glasgow Warriors: 15 Josh McKay, 14 Kyle Steyn (captain), 13 Stafford McDowall, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Kyle Rowe, 10 Adam Hastings, 9 George Horne, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Matt Fagerson, 6 Gregor Brown, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Max Williamson, 3 Murphy Walker, 2 Johnny Matthews, 1 Jamie Bhatti
Replacements: 16 Seb Stephen, 17 Nathan McBeth, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Alex Samuel, 20 Alex Craig, 21 Euan Ferrie, 22 Ben Afshar, 23 Dan Lancaster

Bulls: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Sebastian de Klerk, 13 David Kriel, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Stravino Jacobs, 10 Keagan Johannes, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Jeandre Rudolph, 7 Reinhardt Ludwig, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Ruan Nortje (captain), 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Mornay Smith, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp.
Replacements: 16 Juann Else, 17 Etienne Janneke, 18 Francois Klopper, 19 JJ Theron, 20 Nama Xaba, 21 Paul de Wet, 22 Stedman Gans, 23 Kurt-Lee Arendse.

Saturday, 25 October 2025

Lions v Ulster – Ellis Park, 13:45
Weather: High 20's, sunny, dry, humidity below 20 – click here for updates
Referee: Ben Connor (Wales)
Assistant Referees: Christopher Allison (South Africa), JD Jadezweni (South Africa)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)

Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Eduan Keyter, 13 Henco van Wyk, 12 Bronson Mills, 11 Angelo Davids, 10 Chris Smith, 9 Nico Steyn, 8 Francke Horn (captain), 7 Ruan Venter, 6 Jarod Cairns, 5 Reinhard Nothnagel, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 Franco Marais, 1 SJ Kotze.
Replacements: 16 Morne Brandon, 17 RF Schoeman, 18 Conraad van Vuuren, 19 Darrien Landsberg, 20 Renzo du Plessis, 21 Layton Horn, 22 Gianni Lombard, 23 Kelly Mpeku.

Ulster: 15 Michael Lowry, 14 Robert Baloucoune, 13 James Hume, 12 Jude Postlethwaite, 11 Zac Ward, 10 Jack Murphy, 9 Nathan Doak, 8 Juarno Augustus, 7 Tom Stewart, 6 David McCann, 5 Joe Hopes, 4 Harry Sheridan, 3 Tom O’Toole, 2 Rob Herring (captain), 1 Sam Crean.
Replacements: 16 James McCormick, 17 Callum Reid, 18 Scott Wilson, 19 Matthew Dalton, 20 Bryn Ward, 21 Conor McKee, 22 Jake Flannery, 23 Werner Kok.

Sharks v Scarlets – Hollywoodbets Kings Park, 16:00
Weather: Cloudy, dry, temp early 20's, humidity early 80's, some wind – click here for updates
Referee: Sam Grove-White (Scotland)
Assistant Referees: Griffin Colby (South Africa), Aimee Barrett-Theron (South Africa)
TMO: Eoghan Cross (Ireland)

Sharks: 15 Jordan Hendrikse, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Siya Masuku, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Emmanuel Tshituka, 7 Vincent Tshituka, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Eben Etzebeth (captain), 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Fez Mbatha, 17 Cameron Dawson, 18 Lee-Marvin Mazibuko, 19 JJ Scheepers, 20 Phepsi Buthelezi, 21 Jaden Hendrikse, 22 Jean Smith, 23 Jurenzo Julius.

Scarlets: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Johnny Williams (captain), 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Dane Blacker, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Dan Davis, 6 Sam Lousi, 5 Jake Ball, 4 Harvey Cuckson, 3 Archer Holz, 2 Marnus van der Merwe, 1 Kemsley Mathias.
Replacements: 16 Kirby Myhill, 17 Alec Hepburn, 18 Henry Thomas, 19 Alex Groves, 20 Jarrod Taylor, 21 Archie Hughes, 22 Joe Hawkins, 23 Ioan Nicholas.

Leinster v Zebre – Aviva Stadium, 18:30
Weather: Light rain forecast all day, temp around 7 degrees, humidity early 70's  – click here for updates
Referee: Ian Kenny (Scotland)
Assistant Referees: Stuart Gaffikin (Ireland), Andrew Fogarty (Ireland)
TMO: Colin Brett (Scotland)

Leinster: 15 Hugo McLaughlin, 14 Joshua Kenny, 13 Hugh Cooney, 12 Charlie Tector, 11 Andrew Osborne, 10 Harry Byrne, 9 Luke McGrath (captain), 8 James Culhane, 7 Scott Penny, 6 Max Deegan, 5 Diarmuid Mangan, 4 Brian Deeny, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 John McKee, 1 Jerry Cahir.
Replacements: 16 Bobby Sheehan, 17 Alex Usanov, 18 Andrew Sparrow, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Alex Soroka, 21 Will Connors, 22 Fintan Gunne, 23 Caspar Gabriel.

Zebre: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Mirko Belloni, 13 Giulio Bertaccini, 12 Marco Zanon, 11 Albert Einstein Batista, 10 Giacomo Da Re, 9 Thomas Dominguez, 8 David Odiase, 7 Samuele Locatelli, 6 Giacomo Ferrari, 5 Leonard Krumov (captain), 4 Franco Carrera, 3 Matteo Nocera, 2 Giovanni Quattrini, 1 Muhamed Hasa.
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Paolo Buonfiglio, 18 Marcos Gallorini, 19 Giacomo Milano, 20 Giovanni Licata, 21 Migael Prinsloo, 22 Martin Roger Farias, 23 Luca Morisi.

Benetton v Stormers – Stadio Comunale di Monigo, 18:30
Weather: Temp mid teens, overcast but dry, humidity late 70's – click here for updates
Referee: Hollie Davidson (Scotland)
Assistant Referees: Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy), Luca Bisetto (Italy)
TMO: Andrew McMenemy (Scotland)

Benetton: 15 Matt Gallagher, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Leonardo Marin, 11 Ignacio Mendy, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Andy Uren, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Riccardo Favretto (captain), 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Siua Maile, 1 Thomas Gallo.
Replacements: 16 Bautista Bernasconi, 17 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 18 Giosué Zilocchi, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 So’otala Fa’aso’o, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Filippo Drago.

Stormers: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Seabelo Senatla, 13 Ruhan Nel (captain), 12 Damian Willemse, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Jurie Matthee, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 JD Schickerling, 4 Salmaan Moerat, 3 Sazi Sandi, 2 André-Hugo Venter, 1 Vernon Matongo.
Replacements: 16 JJ Kotze, 17 Oli Kebble, 18 Zachary Porthen, 19 Adré Smith, 20 Ruben van Heerden, 21 Ruan Ackermann, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Wandisile Simelane.

Dragons v Ospreys – Rodney Parade, 18:30
Weather: Cold at around 5 degrees, showers forecast to clear during game, windy, humidity 80% – click here for updates
Referee: Ben Breakspear (Wales)
Assistant Referees: Adam Jones (Wales), Amber Stamp-Dunstan (Wales)
TMO: Aled Griffiths (Wales)

Dragons: 15 Angus O’Brien (captain), 14 Fine Inisi, 13 Joe Westwood, 12 Aneurin Owen, 12 Harri Ackerman, 11 Huw Anderson, 10 Tinus de Beer, 9 Rhodri Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Thomas Young, 6 Ryan Woodman, 5 Ben Carter (c), 4 Matthew Screech, 3 Chris Coleman, 2 Brodie Coghlan, 1 Wyn Jones.
Replacements: 16 Oli Burrows, 17 Rodrigo Martinez, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Shane Lewis Hughes, 20 Harry Beddall, 21 Niall Armstrong, 22 Cai Evans, 23 David Richards.

Ospreys: 15 Jack Walsh, 14 Dan Kasende, 13 Phil Cokanasiga, 12 Keiran Williams, 11 Iestyn Hopkins, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Harri Deaves, 6 Huw Sutton, 5 James Fender, 4 Ryan Smith, 3 Tom Botha, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Lewis Lloyd, 17 Garyn Phillips, 18 Ben Warren, 19 Rhys Davies, 20 Jac Morgan, 21 Luke Davies, 22 Evardi Boshoff, 23 Max Nagy.

Munster v Connacht – Thomond Park, 20:45
Weather: Cold 4 degrees, light rain all day, humidity late 80's – click here for updates
Referee: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
Assistant Referees: Peter Martin (Ireland), Chris Lough (Ireland)
TMO: Matteo Liperini (Italy)

Munster: 15 Shane Daly, 14 Diarmuid Kilgallen, 13 Dan Kelly, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Thaakir Abrahams, 10 JJ Hanrahan, 9 Ethan Coughlan, 8 Gavin Coombes, 7 John Hodnett, 6 Jack O’Donoghue (captain), 5 Fineen Wycherley, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 John Ryan, 2 Lee Barron, 1 Michael Milne.
Replacements: 16 Niall Scannell, 17 Jeremy Loughman, 18 Ronan Foxe, 19 Evan O’Connell, 20 Ruadhan Quinn, 21 Jake O’Riordan, 22 Tony Butler, 23 Shay McCarthy.

Connacht: 15 Harry West, 14 Byron Ralson, 13 Hugh Gavin, 12 Cathal Forde, 11 Finn Treacy, 10 Josh Ioane, 9 Ben Murphy, 8 Sean Jansen, 7 Paul Boyle (captain), 6 Josh Murphy, 5 Darragh Murray, 4 Joe Joyce, 3 Sam Illo, 2 Dave Heffernan, 1 Jordan Duggan.
Replacements: 16 Dylan Tierney-Martin, 17 Peter Dooley, 18 Fiachna Barrett, 19 Niall Murray, 20 David O’Connor, 21 Matthew Devine, 22 Sean Naughton, 23 Seán O’Brien.

Cardiff v Edinburgh – Cardiff Arms Park, 20:45
Weather: Cold 3 degrees, rain earlier in day should clear, humidity early 80's – click here for updates
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant Referees: Craig Evans (Wales), Carwyn Sion (Wales)
TMO: Colin Stanley (Ireland)

Cardiff: 15 Jacob Beetham, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Harri Millard, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Tom Bowen, 10 Ioan Lloyd, 9 Johan Mulder, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Taine Basham, 6 Alex Mann, 5 George Nott, 4 Josh McNally, 3 Javan Sebastin, 2 Liam Belcher (captain), 1 Danny Southworth.
Replacements: 16 Daf Hughes, 17 Corey Domachowski, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Ben Donnell, 20 Alun Lawrence, 21 Dan Thomas, 22 Aled Davies, 23 Callum Sheedy.

Edinburgh: 15 Wes Goosen, 14 Ross McCann, 13 Piers O’Conor, 12 James Lang, 11 Lewis Wells, 10 Cammy Scott, 9 Charlie Shiel, 8 Magnus Bradbury (captain), 7 Dylan Richardson, 6 Liam McConnell, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Marshall Sykes, 3 D’arcy Rae, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Paddy Harrison, 17 Boan Venter, 18 Paul Hill, 19 Callum Hunter-Hill, 20 Luke Crosbie, 21 Ben Vellacott, 22 Ross Thompson, 23 Matt Davidson.

URC Week 5 – Handicap Movements

Posted 22 Oct 23h05 

There has not been a lot of movement since I posted the early lines 

Here are the moves of more than 1 point 

Leinster v Zebre

• Early: Leinster -28.5

• Current: Leinster -26.5

• 🔻 Leinster trimmed back 2 points – some support for Zebre, I imagine because Leinster have a number of injuries and I expect will be missing their Irish players heading to the USA.

Munster v Connacht

• Early: Munster -9.5

• Current: Munster -7.5

• 🔻 Munster eased 2 points – support coming in for Connacht on the plus. I suspect as a result of the Ireland v USA test. 

URC Week 5 – Projected vs Current Handicaps

Posted 20 Oct 16h48

The bookies are out with handicaps and here is how mine compare to Betxchange 

Friday, 24 October 2025

• Glasgow v Bulls

  • Projected: Glasgow -6.5

  • Current: Glasgow -10.5

  • 📌 A 4 point difference, team news will be interesting. I am not sure if Bulls will lose their Boks. 

Saturday, 25 October 2025

• Lions v Ulster

  • Projected: Lions +5.5

  • Current: Lions +1.5

  • 📌 Also a 4 point difference, won't be making a move and will let the market settle 

• Sharks v Scarlets

  • Projected: Sharks -17.5

  • Current: Sharks -16.5

  • 📌 Almost identical – only 1 point off.

• Leinster v Zebre

  • Projected: Leinster -30.5

  • Current: Leinster -28.5

  • 📌 Pretty close for a big handicap 

• Benetton v Stormers

  • Projected: Benetton +6.5

  • Current: Benetton +4.5

  • 📌 Within 2 points - no move 

• Dragons v Ospreys

  • Projected: Dragons +6.5

  • Current: Dragons +6.5

  • 📌 Perfect match.

• Munster v Connacht

  • Projected: Munster -10.5

  • Current: Munster -9.5

  • 📌 Pretty close, nothing to choose.

• Cardiff v Edinburgh

  • Projected: Cardiff -3.5

  • Current: Cardiff -3.5

  • 📌 Spot on with the market.

No early moves for me 

URC Week 5 Fixtures and Projected Handicaps

Posted 19 Oct 21h50

Friday, 24 October 2025

• Glasgow -6.5 v Bulls – Scotstoun Stadium, 20:45

Saturday, 25 October 2025

• Lions +5.5 v Ulster – Ellis Park, 13:45

• Sharks -17.5 v Scarlets – Hollywoodbets Kings Park, 16:00

• Leinster -30.5 v Zebre – Aviva Stadium, 18:30

• Benetton +6.5 v Stormers – Stadio Comunale di Monigo, 18:30

• Dragons +6.5 v Ospreys – Rodney Parade, 18:30

• Munster -10.5 v Connacht – Thomond Park, 20:45

• Cardiff -3.5 v Edinburgh – Cardiff Arms Park, 20:45

The above are my handicap projections and I will compare these with the bookmakers on Monday