The United Rugby Championship returns this coming weekend with Round 7, and in this blog, we will cover all things betting related including early betting, handicap moves, weather, team lineups and ultimately our bets.
Bet: Dragons RFC v Connacht Rugby
Posted 20 Dec 19h14
3 units Under 45.5 points at 0.89/1 (BetXchange)
The Dragons opened at +6.5 and have since drifted to +9.5. The points line, however, has been stable at 45.5.
Conditions are expected to be wet and windy, which should make attacking rugby difficult and place a premium on territory and set piece. That suits another lower-scoring contest, and I’m happy to bring the curtain down on Round 7 with one more unders play.
Bet: Ospreys v Munster
Posted 20 Dec 09h17
4 units Under 47.5 points at 0.99/1 (BetXchange)
After opening with Ospreys at +3.5, this handicap has now settled exactly where I forecast it at +5.5. There is no real value for me on the handicap at this stage, but I do like the Under 47.5 and this is my biggest play of the day.
This total would have landed in the last three meetings between the sides, including the last two hosted by Ospreys. Conditions are also expected to be unpleasant, with rain and wind in the forecast, which should further favour a lower-scoring contest.
All things considered, the unders is the standout angle for me here.
Bet: Hollywoodbets Sharks v Vodacom Bulls
Posted 20 Dec 09h08
3 units Under 47.5 points at 0.94/1 (BetXchange)
The Sharks opened as -1.5 favourites, but the market has swung and the Bulls are now trading at -1.5. Both sides have been struggling for form, although the Sharks will have taken plenty of confidence from their win over Saracens in Durban last weekend.
This has the feel of a proper arm wrestle. While I would have preferred a couple of extra points on the total, at this time of year in Durban, I am generally inclined to look for unders.
The under would have landed in three of the last four meetings in Durban, and with both teams likely to prioritise physicality and territory, I’m happy to side with a lower-scoring contest here in what will hopefully be muggy conditions.
Bet: Glasgow Warriors v Edinburgh Rugby
Posted 20 Dec 09h01
3 units Under 46.5 points at 0.92/1 (BetXchange)
This line opened at Glasgow -8.5, which is where I had it priced, but there has been steady support for the home side and it now sits at -11.5.
The total points line is 46.5 and this has historically been a low-scoring fixture. Conditions are expected to be clear but cold, with some humidity, which should favour defences and set-piece control rather than expansive play.
I’m following The Admiral on the unders here and expect another tight, attritional Glasgow–Edinburgh battle.
Bet: Stormers v Lions
Posted 20 Dec 08h49
3 units Under 52.5 points at 9/10 (PokerBet)
This handicap opened at Stormers -13.5 and has since pushed out to -15.5. The points line sits at 52.5, but much of the pre-match discussion has centred on the condition of the pitch.
The surface was used for motocross last week and Stormers coach John Dobson has described it as resembling a cricket pitch and he is not a happy camper. With some wind also expected, kicking conditions may be challenging.
Taking all of that into account, I am siding with the unders in what could turn say into a stop-start, attritional contest.
I am not having a bet in Benetton v Zebre which overlaps with the Stormers and Glasgow games but the cap is Benetton -12.5 and the points line is 46.5.
It looks an unders kind of day
Posted 20 Dec 08h36
The weekend got off to a decent start with unders arriving in Leinster v Ulster but the -12 missed in Cardiff v Scarlets - what the Cardiff player was thinking with that cross kick after the hooter he alone will know.
The Admiral mentioned he liked unders in a lot of games this week and I am in agreement. Bets to follow.
Bet: Leinster v Ulster
Posted 19 Dec 07h09
4 units Under 49.5 points at 0.93/1 (BetXchange)
I handicapped this game at Leinster -15.5. The line opened at -12.5 and has since tightened to -9.5 after Leinster mixed things up slightly with their team announcement. In theory I should be on Leinster but they just don't instill confidence at the moment.
The sentiment on last night’s show, which included a Leinster supporter and a neutral conveniently wearing a Leinster jersey, was that Ulster are big runners. However, The Admiral was particularly bullish on the unders at 49.5.
Conditions are expected to be cold but clear and this has the look of a proper arm wrestle. Leinster remain an excellent defensive side but are not scoring as freely as they once were, which hopefully points to an unders match.
For those looking for something more speculative, the Half-Time/Full-Time market is interesting. Ulster/Leinster is trading at 21/4 at Sportingbet. Leinster have named a stacked bench, which may be needed to get them over the line in the second half although in truth I would have preferred around 6/1 which I saw while hosting The Handicap on Thursday.
Bet: Cardiff Rugby v Scarlets
Posted 19 Dec 06h48
2 units Cardiff win & Under 46.5 points at 33/20 (Hollywoodbets)
I handicapped this match at Cardiff -8.5 and the market has been pretty stable all week around -7.5.
Both guests on last night’s show gave the Scarlets a fighting chance, and I did consider Cardiff to win by 1–12 points at 29/20. The total points line sits at 46.5 and the unders would have landed in the last two meetings between these sides.
Conditions are expected to be cold and clear, but humidity is well into the 90s, which could make handling tricky. That and recent history pushes me towards a lower-scoring contest.
I don’t want to get too involved here, so a small play on the home side to win a tight, low-scoring game is the approach.
Match Officials, Lineups, Weather
Posted 18 Dec
Below are the match officials, team line ups and weather for the weekends action
THE HANDICAP - tune in live at 21h00 SAST tonight for our final live show of the year which will focus on the URC
Cardiff Rugby v Scarlets
Date: Friday, 19 December 2025
Venue: Cardiff Arms Park
Kick-off: 21:45
Team Line-ups:
Cardiff: 15 Cam Winnett, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Harri Millard, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Mason Grady, 10 Callum Sheedy, 9 Aled Davies, 8 Alun Lawrence, 7 Dan Thomas, 6 James Botham, 5 George Nott, 4 Josh McNally, 3 Javan Sebastian, 2 Liam Belcher (captain), 1 Danny Southworth
Replacements: 16 Evan Lloyd, 17 Rhys Barratt, 18 Sam Wainwright, 19 Rory Thornton, 20 Alex Mann, 21 Taulupe Faletau, 22 Johan Mulder, 23 Jacob Beetham
Scarlets: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Eddie James, 12 Johnny Williams, 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Joe Hawkins, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Fletcher Anderson, 7 Josh Macleod (captain), 6 Max Douglas, 5 Jake Ball, 4 Sam Lousi,3 Archer Holz,2 Ryan Elias,1 Kemsley Mathias
Replacements: 16 Marnus van der Merwe, 17 Alec Heburn, 18 Henry Thomas, 19 Jarrod Taylor, 20 Dan Davis, 21 Archie Hughes, 22 Elis Price, 23 Joe Roberts
Referee: Ben Breakspear (Wales)
Assistant referees: Ben Whitehouse (Wales) & Ben Connor (Wales)
TMO: Keith David (Wales)
Weather: Cold at 6 degrees but clear, humidity early 90's - click here for updates
Leinster Rugby v Ulster Rugby
Date: Friday, 19 December 2025
Venue: Aviva Stadium
Kick-off: 21:45
Team Line-ups:
Leinster: 15 Ciarán Frawley, 14 Joshua Kenny, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Charlie Tector, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Luke McGrath, 8 Jack Conan (captain), 7 Scott Penny, 6 Alex Soroka, 5 James Ryan, 4 Brian Deeny, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Gus McCarthy, 1 Jack Boyle
Replacements: 16 Dan Sheehan, 17 Paddy McCarthy, 18 Tadhg Furlong, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Max Deegan, 21 Fintan Gunne, 22 Harry Byrne, 23 Ruben Moloney
Ulster: 15 Jacob Stockdale, 14 Rob Baloucoune, 13 Jude Postlethwaite, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Werner Kok, 10 Jack Murphy, 9 Nathan Doak, 8 Juarno Augustus, 7 Nick Timoney (captain), 6 David McCann, 5 Charlie Irvine, 4 Harry Sheridan, 3 Tom O’Toole, 2 Tom Stewart, 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 John Andrew, 17 Sam Crean, 18 Scott Wilson, 19 Joe Hopes, 20 Bryn Ward, 21 Conor McKee, 22 Jake Flannery, 23 Ethan McIlroy
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Andrew Fogarty (Ireland) & Tomás O’Sullivan (Ireland)
TMO: Olly Hodges (Ireland)
Weather: Cold at 7 degrees, overcast but dry, humidity mid 70's - click here for updates
DHL Stormers v Lions
Date: Saturday, 20 December 2025
Venue: DHL Stadium
Kick-off: 15:30
Team Line-ups:
Stormers: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Dylan Maart, 13 Wandisile Simelane, 12 Jonathan Roche, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Jurie Matthee, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Marcel Theunissen, 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruben van Heerden, 4 Salmaan Moerat (captain), 3 Neethling Fouché, 2 André-Hugo Venter, 1 Vernon Matongo.
Replacements: 16 Lukhanyo Vokozela, 17 Ntuthuko Mchunu, 18 Sazi Sandi, 19 Adré Smith, 20 JD Schickerling, 21 Ben-Jason Dixon, 22 Stefan Ungerer, 23 Suleiman Hartzenberg.
Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Kelly Mpeku, 13 Erich Cronje, 12 Bronson Mills, 11 Eduan Keyter, 10 Chris Smith, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Francke Horn (captain), 7 Ruan Venter, 6 Jarod Cairns, 5 Reinhard Nothnagel, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 PJ Botha, 1 SJ Kotze.
Replacements: 16 Franco Marais, 17 Eddie Davids, 18 RF Schoeman, 19 Dylan Sjoblom, 20 Darrien Landsberg, 21 Siba Qoma, 22 Nico Steyn, 23 Richard Kriel.
Referee: Hanru van Rooyen (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa) & Stephan Geldenhuys (South Africa)
TMO: Quinton Immelman (South Africa)
Weather: 24 degrees, clear and sunny, windy, humidity in 60's - click here for updates
Benetton Treviso v Zebre Parma
Date: Saturday, 20 December 2025
Venue: Stadio Monigo
Kick-off: 16:00
Team Line-ups:
Benetton: 15 Matt Gallagher, 14 Paolo Odogwu, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Leonardo Marin, 11 Ignacio Mendy, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Alessandro Garbisi, 8 So’otala Fa’aso’o, 7 Michele Lamaro, 6 Manuel Zuliani, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Riccardo Favretto, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Bautista Bernasconi, 1 Thomas Gallo.
Replacements: 16 Nicholas Gasperini, Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Tiziano Pasquali, 19 Giulio Marini, 20 Lorenzo Cannone, 21 Louis Werchon, 22 Tomas Albornoz, 23 Malakai Fekitoa.
Zebre Parma: 15 Giovanni Montemauri, 14 Giulio Bertaccini, 13 Marco Zanon, 12 Damiano Mazza, 11 Simone Gesi, 10 Giacomo Da Re, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 David Odiase, 7 Samuele Locatelli, 6 Bautista Stavile, 5 Leonard Krumov (co-captain), 4 Giacomo Ferrari, 3 Juan Pitinari, 2 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 1 Muhamed Hasa.
Replacements: 16 Giampietro Ribaldi, 17 Paolo Buonfiglio, 18 Matteo Nocera, 19 Alessandro Ortombina, 20 Matteo Canali, 21 Thomas Dominguez, 22 Malik Faissal, 23 Giovanni Licata (co-captain).
Referee: Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
Assistant referees: Filippo Russo (Italy) & Luca Bisetto (Italy)
TMO: Stefano Penne (Italy)
Weather: Clear, temp around 10 degrees, humidity mid 70's - click here for updates
Glasgow Warriors v Edinburgh Rugby
Date: Saturday, 20 December 2025
Venue: Hampden Park
Kick-off: 17:00
Team Line-ups:
Glasgow Warriors: 15 Ollie Smith, 14 Kyle Steyn (captain), 13 Stafford McDowall, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Adam Hastings, 9 George Horne, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Max Williamson, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Gregor Hiddleston, 1 Nathan McBeth.
Replacements: 16 Seb Stephen, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Alex Craig, 20 Gregor Brown, 21 Ally Miller, 22 Ben Afshar, 23 Dan Lancaster.
Edinburgh: 15 Wes Goosen, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Matt Currie, 12 Piers O’Conor, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Cammy Scott, 9 Ben Vellacott, 8 Magnus Bradbury (captain), 7 Dylan Richardson, 6 Liam McConnell, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Glen Young, 3 Ollie Blyth-Lafferty, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Harri Morris, 17 Boan Venter, 18 Paul Hill, 19 Callun Hunter-Hill, 20 Freddy Douglas, 21 Conor McAlpine, 22 Ross Thompson, 23 Matt Davidson.
Referee: Eoghan Cross (Ireland)
Assistant referees: David Sutherland (Scotland) & Finlay Brown (Scotland)
TMO: Mark Patton (Scotland)
Weather: 7 degrees, overcast, rain forecast before and after at this stage, humidity early 80's - click here for updates
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Vodacom Bulls
Date: Saturday, 20 December 2025
Venue: Hollywoodbets Kings Park
Kick-off: 18:00
Team Line-ups:
Sharks: 15 Hakeem Kunene, 14 Edwill van der Merwe, 13 Ethan Hooker, 12 Andre Esterhuizen (captain), 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Phepsi Buthelezi, 7 Vincent Tshituka, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Emile van Heerden, 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Hanro Jacobs, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Phatu Ganyane.
Replacements: 16 Eduan Swart, 17 Lee-Marvin Mazibuko, 18 Mawande Mdanda, 19 Marvin Orie, 20 Matt Romao, 21 Nick Hatton, 22 Jaden Hendrikse, 23 George Whitehead.
Bulls: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Sebastian de Klerk, 13 David Kriel, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Stravino Jacobs, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 JJ Theron, 7 Elrigh Louw (captain), 6 Jeandre Rudolph, 5 JF van Heerden, 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp.
Replacements: 16 Akker van der Merwe, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Khuta Mchunu, 19 Reinhardt Ludwig, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Paul de Wet, 22 Stedman Gans, 23 Devon Williams.
Referee: Griffin Colby (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Aimee Barrett-Theron (South Africa), AJ Jacobs (South Africa)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
Weather: 23 degrees, possible storms, humidity mid 80's - click here for updates
Ospreys v Munster Rugby
Date: Saturday, 20 December 2025
Venue: Dunraven Brewery Field
Kick-off: 19:30
Team Line-ups:
Ospreys: 15 Max Nagy, 14 Dan Kasende, 13 Evardi Boshoff, 12 Owen Watkin, 11 Keelan Giles, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 8 Morgan Morris, 7 Harri Deaves, 6 James Ratti, 5 Ryan Smith, 4 Rhys Davies, 3 Rhys Henry, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Steffan Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Sam Parry, 17 Cam Jones, 18 Tom Botha, 19 Huw Sutton, 20 Morgan Morse, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Keiran Williams, 23 Jack Walsh.
Munster: 15 Mike Haley, 14 Calvin Nash, 13 Tom Farrell, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Shane Daly, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Paddy Patterson, 8 Gavin Coombes, 7 Alex Kendellen, 6 Jack O’Donoghue (captain), 5 Fineen Wycherley, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Michael Ala’alatoa, 2 Niall Scannell, 1 Jeremy Loughman.
Replacements: 16 Lee Barron, 17 Michael Milne, 18 Conor Bartley, 19 Edwin Edogbo, 20 Tom Ahern, 21 Ethan Coughlan, 22 JJ Hanrahan, 23 John Hodnett.
Referee: Sam Grove-White (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Craig Evans (Wales) & Andrew Moule (Wales)
TMO: Andrew McMenemy (Scotland)
Weather: 9 degrees, showers, humidity late 70's - click here for updates
Dragons RFC v Connacht Rugby
Date: Saturday, 20 December 2025
Venue: Rodney Parade
Kick-off: 21:45
Team Line-ups:
Dragons: 15 Angus O’Brien (co-captain), 14 Jared Rosser, 13 Fine Inisi, 12 Aneurin Owen, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Tinus de Beer, 9 Che Hope, 8 Harri Keddie, 7 Harry Beddall, 6 Ryan Woodman, 5 Ben Carter (co-captain), 4 Levi Douglas, 3 Robert Hunt, 2 Oli Burrows, 1 Rodrigo Martinez.
Replacements: 16 George Roberts, 17 Jordan Morris, 18 Cebo Dlamini, 19 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 20 Thomas Young, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Joe Westwood, 23 Huw Anderson.
Connacht: 15 Sam Gilbert, 14 Chay Mullins, 13 Cathal Forde, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Shayne Bolton, 10 Josh Ioane, 9 Caolin Blade, 8 Paul Boyle, 7 Seán O’Brien, 6 Cian Prendergast (captain), 5 Niall Murray, 4 Darragh Murray, 3 Sam Illo, 2 Dave Heffernan, 1 Jordan Duggan.
Replacements: 16 Dylan Tierney-Martin, 17 Denis Buckley, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Josh Murphy, 20 Sean Jansen, 21 Ben Murphy, 22 Jack Carty, 23 Hugh Gavin.
Referee: Ru Campbell (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Rob McDowell (Wales) & Jonny Mackenzie (Wales)
TMO: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
Weather: 8 degrees, showers, windy, humidity low 90's - click here for updates
URC Round 7 – Betting Moves
Posted 17 Dec 07h11
Not a lot to report on the betting front - a few small moves
-
Cardiff -7.5 v Scarlets
(unchanged) -
Leinster -13.5 v Ulster
(moved from -12.5 to -13.5, 1-point shift toward Leinster) -
DHL Stormers -13.5 v Lions
(unchanged) -
Benetton Treviso -10.5 v Zebre
(unchanged) -
Glasgow Warriors -9.5 v Edinburgh
(moved from -8.5 to -9.5, 1-point shift toward Glasgow) -
Hollywoodbets Sharks -0.5 v Vodacom Bulls
(moved from -1.5 to -0.5, 1-point shift toward Bulls) -
Ospreys +3.5 v Munster
(unchanged) -
Dragons +5.5 v Connacht
(unchanged)
Round 7 Early Handicaps
Posted 15 Dec 23h24
I missed the opening lines but below the handicaps at Betxchange in brackets next to mine - we are pretty much aligned with a 3 points difference in Leinster game and a 4 point difference in the Stormers match.
-
Cardiff -8.5 (-7.5) v Scarlets
-
Leinster -15.5 (-12.5) v Ulster
-
DHL Stormers -9.5 (-13.5) v Lions
-
Benetton -9.5 (-10.5) v Zebre Parma
-
Glasgow Warriors -8.5 (-8.5) v Edinburgh
-
Hollywoodbets Sharks -3.5 (-1.5) v Vodacom Bulls
-
Ospreys +5.5 (+3.5) v Munster
-
Dragons RFC +6.5 (+5.5) v Connacht
Round 7 Handicap Projections
Posted 15 Dec 07h30
I battle a bit with handicaps when we jump between competitions but the fact that these are local derbies should make it easier to handicap - my projections below
Cardiff Rugby -8.5 v Scarlets
Leinster -15.5 v Ulster
DHL Stormers -9.5 v Lions
Benetton -9.5 v Zebre Parma
Glasgow Warriors -8.5 v Edinburgh
Hollywoodbets Sharks -3.5 v Vodacom Bulls
Ospreys +5.5 v Munster
Dragons RFC +6.5 v Connacht
I will be back to compare these to the bookies later
Below is a high-level look at the Round 7 fixtures, the current league table, and the latest outright title odds with early handicaps likely to be out on Monday.
Below is a high-level look at the Round 7 fixtures, the current league table, and the latest outright title odds with early handicaps likely to be out on Monday.
Round 7 Fixtures
Posted 14 Dec
It is derby time with some juicy match ups to look forward to. I will have a closer look at the fixtures tonight and will post my projected handicaps.
Friday, 19 December 2025
- Cardiff Rugby v Scarlets
Cardiff Arms Park | 21:45 (SAST) - Leinster v Ulster
Aviva Stadium | 21:45 (SAST)
Saturday, 20 December 2025
- DHL Stormers v Lions
DHL Stadium | 15:30 - Benetton Treviso v Zebre Parma
Stadio Monigo | 16:00 - Glasgow Warriors v Edinburgh
Hampden Park | 17:00 - Hollywoodbets Sharks v Vodacom Bulls
Hollywoodbets Kings Park | 18:00 - Ospreys v Munster
Dunraven Brewery Field | 19:30 - Dragons RFC v Connacht
Rodney Parade | 21:45
Current URC Table (After Round 6)
- 1. DHL Stormers – 27 pts (6–0)
- 2. Cardiff Rugby – 25 pts
- 3. Munster – 24 pts
- 4. Ulster* – 21 pts
- 5. Glasgow Warriors – 20 pts
- 6. Leinster – 16 pts
- 7. Lions – 16 pts
- 8. Vodacom Bulls – 15 pts
- 9. Connacht* – 14 pts
- 10. Edinburgh* – 13 pts
- 11. Zebre Parma – 10 pts
- 12. Benetton – 9 pts
- 13. Ospreys – 8 pts
- 14. Hollywoodbets Sharks – 8 pts
- 15. Dragons RFC – 5 pts
- 16. Scarlets* – 4 pts
*Only played 5 games
URC Outright Winner – Current Betting at Betxchange
- Leinster – 13/20 - it seems win or lose bookies wont budge on this price
- Stormers – 4/1 – there was some 6/1 available but bookies now showing them some respect
- Vodacom Bulls – 50/9
- Munster – 38/5
- Glasgow Warriors – 9/1
- Hollywoodbets Sharks – 41/2
- Ulster – 51/2
66/1 and better the balance
