Streamed live from 21:00 on Thursday 12th September Brent Graham is joined by a team of rugby betting experts providing betting tips for the weekends Currie Cup semi-finals and Bunnings NPC matches and a look ahead to the Rugby Championship Round 5
Live from 21:00 on Thursday 12th September, The Handicap, Rugby Betting Show
In this blog we will post our Currie Cup Semi-Finals plays for the weekend.
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Any additional bets will be posted in our forum where we have some very shrewd punters sharing information and bets
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CURRIE CUP SEMI-FINALS BETTING UPDATE
Posted 14 September 13h09
Very little movement in the handicap or the points lines. Can confirm hot conditions in Joburg with a bit of a breeze but doubt it will have an impact.
Love this play by Shaft in the forum – JC Pretorius Lions Final try at 18/1 if your bookies has it
I am looking to Renzi Du Plessis once again as he scores from mauls and free play and is in cracking nick.
BET: 0.5 unit 1st Lions Try Scorer Renzo Du Plessis at 9/1 at WSB
BET: 1 unit Renzo Du Plessis at least 2 tries at 5/1 at Pokerbet*
*You can open a Pokerbet Account by clicking here
CURRIE CUP SEMI-FINALS BETTING UPDATED
Posted 14 September 08h49
There has been some movement on the handicaps with the Lions now generally -14.5 (I still think we get -15.5) and the Bulls are generally -5.5 with the -3.5 at Betx snapped up as projected although they held it there for some time.
Points lines
We also have points lines with Lions v Cheetahs 63.5 (Betx 65.5 with unders at 0.82/1) and Bulls v Sharks 57.5.
Conditions should be excellent for both games but I think unders is the play in both. The thing is I am so involved in the handicaps I am nervous to get too committed.
Looking at the Lions game their last 3 home games have had 63-67 points in them but 3/5 would have seen unders arrive and this is a semi-final and while I expect an exciting game I think teams will adapt a slightly more defense-orientated approach.
Over 63.5 would only have arrived in 2 of the last 9 Currie Cup playoff matches and there were 59 points when the sides met in Bloem back in August. The quote feels 3-4 points too high.
The spread in the Bulls game is lower at 57.5 and overs would have arrived in 4 of the 5 Bulls home matches this season. The Sharks have really worked on their D though and I think this could turn out to be an arm wrestle.
If I wasn’t already big on the Lions cap I would be taking Cheetahs under 24.5 but for now I am going with an unders double.
I will be back with some try scorer plays.
BET: Double: 2 units under 65.5 Lions game, under 57.5 Bulls game at 2.43/1 at Betxchange
BULLS V SHARKS
Posted 12 September 17h30
I handicapped this game Bulls -5.5 and the line opened -4.5. It has generally moved out and is -6.5 in places but there is also some -3.5 still hanging around.
The Sharks have named their side and it looks a good one with Esterhuizen a surprise selection at 12. A surprise in that he was only expected back from Injury in a few weeks.
There is no team news from the Bulls camp yet but I am expecting the to put out a strong side.
I am going to take the -3.5 on offer at Betxchange as I think it will start -6.5 and if I get cold feet I can trade out (I generally have warm feet though)
More plays to follow as we approach kick off and get more markets
BET: 5 units Bulls -3.5 at 9/10 at Betxchange
LIONS V CHEETAHS
Posted 12 September 08h37
I handicapped this game -12.5 and it opened -11.5. At the time of writing I can find -12.5 and also -10.5 and it is the latter that catches my eye.
The Lions have been in excellent form and were in full control of their match in Bloem where they won by 17 points.
Their squad is even stronger now and I am expecting some URC names to be involved whereas the Cheetahs have no such luxury.
The Cheetahs are coming off a strong win over the Pumas but the Lions have also hammered the same opposition twice and for me the Cheetahs will battle to stay with the Lions.
Followers of this site will know that I don’t buy into the theory that playoff games are closer due to their importance and in fact with no bonus points on offer I see the team that gets ahead taking the 3 pointers to build their lead while the chasing team is forced to take risks.
As a matter of interest last season the Cheetahs beat the Bulls by 27 points at home in the semi-final.
I confidently predict the -10.5 will disappear long before kick off and I am happy to take up to -12.5 before applying brakes
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BET: 7 units Lions -10.5 at 9/10 at HollywoodBets*
*If you are not signed up yet, please use this link to open your account at Hollywood
