The final action in the 2024 edition of the Rugby Championship comes from Nelspruit on Saturday, South Africa clash with Argentina and the outcome of this game will decide who wins the title.
Argentina v South Africa, Saturday 28th September, Nelspruit, KO 17:00 (South African time)
Referee: Ben O'Keeffe (NZR)
Assistant Referees: James Doleman (NZR), Craig Evans (WRU)
TMO: Glenn Newman (NZR)
Weather Forecast - Nelspruit
South Africa:
The Springboks top the standings with 4 wins, 1 defeat and 19 log points and a win, draw or even a losing bonus point from this match will be enough to clinch the Rugby Championship title.
These teams met last week in Santiago del Estero and South Africa were 9.5 point favourites on the bookmakers main handicap line. A victory or a draw would have sealed the title for the Boks but they slipped to a first defeat of the tournament, going down 29-28. South Africa started well and were 17-0 up on 12 minutes but Los Pumas fought back to lead 26-22 at half time. The lead changed hands again in the second half but with Argentina in front by a single point in the final minute Manie Libbok missed a penalty that would have seen his side win the game.
Earlier the Springboks beat the All Blacks 18-12 in Round 4 in Cape Town, fighting back from 9-3 down at the interval. They also came from behind to edge the Round 3 contest with New Zealand 31-27 in Johannesburg, a game they trailed 27-17 with just over 10 minutes remaining.
The Boks started with back to back wins over the Wallabies in Australia. In Round 2 in Perth they came out on top 30-12 and in the opening round in Brisbane they were even more convincing winners, 33-7.
Argentina:
Coming into the final Los Pumas have 3 wins and 2 defeats against their name. Their only chance of landing the title is to win this game with a bonus point and deny the Boks a losing bonus point. That scenario would see them go level on points with the Boks and take the title on a better head to head record.
Argentina scored 4 tries to South Africa's 3 as they edged last week's contest 29-28. They still have a mountain to climb to overhaul their opponents here in the title race and on their last visit to these shores there was also only 1 point in it as South Africa prevailed 22-21 in Johannesburg.
In Round 4 Argentina thrashed the Wallabies in Santa Fe by a record margin (62-27), scored 9 tries in total, 4 of which came in the final 10 minutes. A round earlier their first clash with the Wallabies in Buenos Aires had seen them go down 20-19 when a penalty on the hooter won it for Australia.
Argentina had started their tournament by taking on the All Blacks twice in New Zealand. They sprang a big surprise in Wellington in the opener, coming out on top 38-30 but in Round 2 in Auckland it was a totally different story with the All Blacks dishing out a 42-10 hiding.
Team News
South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Elrigh Louw, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Handre Pollard, 23 Lukhanyo Am
Argentina: 15 Santiago Carreras, 14 Rodrigo Isgro, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Tomas Albornoz, 9 Gonzalo Garcia, 8 Joaquin Oviedo, 7 Santiago Grondona, 6 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Pedro Rubiolo, 3 Joel Sclavi, 2 Julian Montoya (captain), 1 Thomas Gallo.
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Ignacio Calles, 18 Pedro Delgado, 19 Franco Molina, 20 Pablo Matera, 21 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 22 Lucio Cinti, 23 Juan Cruz Mallia
Recent Head to Head
2024 RC Santiago Argentina 29–28 South Africa
2023 RC Johannesburg South Africa 22-21Argentina
2022 RC Durban South Africa 38-21Argentina
2022 RC Buenos Aires Argentina 20–36 South Africa
2021 RC Port Elizabeth South Africa 29-10 Argentina
2021 RC Port Elizabeth South Africa 32-12 Argentina
2019 RC Salta Argentina 13–46 South Africa
2018 RC Mendoza Argentina 32-19 South Africa
2018 RC Durban South Africa 34-21 Argentina
The Betting -
September 27 12h36
South Africa -18.5 points at 9/10
Argentina +18.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
I handicapped this game -17.5 and after opening Boks -20.5 it seems to have settled around the -18.5 mark.
This is being called a Rugby Championship decider but given Argentina need to outscore the Boks by 3 tries and beat them by 8 points or more the Boks will win the Championship and both teams know it.
There is no doubt the Boks are going to go full out for a big win here and I wonder if Argentina won’t enter this one feeling that the tournament is already a success with wins over their 3 big superpower rivals (ok causing Australia a superpower may be stretching things these days)
There is a good reason as to why I am out early with this preview though and that is because there is a bet that comes with “Graham’s Guarantee”** in that the line and price will not be available at kick off.
In fact it won’t last the whole of Thursday and I appreciate not everyone will get on this one and will return with another bet when more bookmakers price up on the market I am looking for.
Pokerbet offer over 51.5 points at 5/6 and overs at 9/10. I don’t usually take 5/6 but in this case I am happy to do so as I expect the line to start in the mid 50’s.
This ground absolutely rained points in the Currie Cup with 55, 64, 88, 92 and 96 points and with good conditions I suspect we are in for a high scoring game but more important at this stage I don’t see 51.5 being offered come Friday morning.
BET: 8 units over 51.5 points at 5/6 at Pokerbet*
*You can open a Pokerbet Account by clicking here
Update: 26 September 09h45
The points line has moved to 54.5. At that level I am still an overs play for a medium stake but I am going to wait for more bookies and markets and will return with another bet.
Posted 27 September 12h37
The points market has settled at 56.5 and the handicap remains -18.5 Boks.
I still think points is an overs play at these levels but my preference is for Bok points at 37.5 as I think they will beat the handicap.
BET: 3 units South Africa over 37.5 points at 87/100 at Pokerbet
Note: If I wasn’t already big on the over 51.5 I would make this a 5 unit play.
**GRAHAMS GUARANTEE is where I am super confident the line and or the price will move. I need to think of something to do as punishment in the event I am wrong (not on the outcome but on the market move) and if you have any thoughts (I can’t refund all your bets sadly) tweet or e-mail me This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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