Friday's Rugby World Cup action comes from Pool A where New Zealand clash with Italy in Lyon, a must win game for both sides if they are to reach the quarter finals.
New Zealand v Italy, Friday 29th September, Lyon, KO 21:00 (South African time)
Referee: Matthew Carley (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Nic Berry (RA), Christophe Ridley (RFU)
TMO: Brett Cronan (RA)
Weather Forecast - Lyon
New Zealand:
After the previous round of matches France topped Pool A with 13 points from 3 games, Italy have 10 points from 2 matches and New Zealand 5 points from 2 matches and it looks highly likely that one of the All Blacks or Azzuri will miss out on a quarter final place.
The All Blacks came up against tournament hosts France in the opening match of the tournament in Paris. It was near enough a “choice” game with the bookmakers but despite taking the lead early in each half New Zealand were eventually worn down and they finished beaten 27-13.
That was the first ever RWC pool stage defeat for the All Blacks and in their second match they thrashed Namibia 71-3, covering a 69.5 point handicap for minus backers with 11 tries scored although on the down side Ethan de Groot picked up a red card late on.
After this the All Blacks take on Uruguay in their final pool match and they are now trading at around 43/10 to claim a fourth RWC title with BoyleSports and around 16/10 to reach the final.
Italy:
Italy have a full house of 10 log points to show from their clashes with Namibia and Uruguay and the going gets tough from here onwards.
In their second outing Italy came from 17-7 down at half time to see off Uruguay 37-17, a margin of victory just shy of the main handicap line and they opened their tournament with a 52-8 victory over Namibia.
Italy's most recent clash with the All Blacks came in Rome in November 2021 and they lost 47-9.
Italy have yet to make it beyond the pool stage in the RWC and after this they will face France in their final pool match. They are trading at around 13/1 with BoyleSports to make it to the quarter finals.
Team News
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Tele’a, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Dalton Papali’i , 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ofa Tu’ungafasi.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Sam Cane, 21 Cam Roigard, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown
Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Luca Morisi, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Dino Lamb, 3 Marco Riccioni, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Hame Faiva, 17 Ivan Nemer, 18 Simone Ferrari, 19 Niccolo Cannone, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Toa Halafihi, 22 Martin Page-Relo, 23 Paolo Odogwu
The Betting -
New Zealand -27.5 points at 9/10
Italy +28.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
There are 2 clear schools of thought heading into this one. There are some who believe Italy have a real chance to scare and possibly beat the All Blacks (they are 22/1 to win) and others that see the All Blacks making a statement with a big win.
The handicap opened -27.5 and I was in agreement with Hanrick Swart in our forum and grabbed it. After briefly touching +26.5 the money though appears to have come for the All Blacks and there is now +28.5 Italy available.
Italy have been a much improved side this year and I believe they can rattle the All Blacks albeit I am stopping short of calling an upset win.
While the All Blacks cannot afford to lose they don’t necessarily need a massive win and if they do pull well clear the potential of Italy scoring late consolations to beat the handicap also exists.
I am already involved on the +27.5 and am adding the +28.5 at 1/1
I have no real feel on the points market where the line is set at 57.5
Stay close to our forum thread where I will post any outright or points plays on this game
BET: 5 units Italy +28.5 at 1/1 at Betxchange (Using the Boost - 5k max, can’t use in multiples)
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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