New Zealand clash with South Africa in Pool B of the Rugby World Cup at the International Stadium Yokohama on Saturday and if recent histiry is anything to go by this could go down to the wire.
New Zealand v South Africa, Saturday 21st September, Yokohama, KO 11:45 (South African time)
Weather Forecast – Yokohama Stadium
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
Assistant Referees: Romain Poite (France), Karl Dickson (England)
TMO: Graham Hughes (England)
New Zealand begin their quest for a third consecutive RWC title and a fourth in total and they come into the tournament as outright favourites with the bookmakers at an average price of around 11/8. This opening game against the Springboks ought to decide who tops this pool and the All Blacks are generally favourites at 1/3. Looking further ahead New Zealand are 1/8 to reach the semi finals and 8/15 to contest the final.
Let's turn our attention to recent form and the All Blacks were denied yet another Rugby Championship title this year where their results comprised of a narrow win in Argentina, a draw at home to the Boks (16-16) and a defeat to the Wallabies in Australia. They did subsequently gain revenge on Australia with a 36-0 win in Auckland to retain the Bledisloe Cup and most recently they rattled up 92 points in a warm up game against Tonga.
In RWC 2015 the All Blacks came through their pool matches with a 100% record, earning bonus points in 3 of their 4 games before going on to thrash France in the quarter finals, edging out the Boks in the semi's and beating the Wallabies in the final.
South Africa are 4/1 second favourites to win the tournament on many books and around 9/4 to finish top of this pool. The price for South Africa to kick on and reach the semi finals is 4/7 and they can be backed at around 6/4 contest the final.
The Boks will take plenty from landing their first ever Rugby Championship title. Although it was a shortened format they gained momentum from a home win over the Wallabies followed by the draw in New Zealand and held their nerve to comfortably beat Argentina away from home. Subsequent warm up games included a home win over Los Pumas and most recently a 41-7 hiding of host nation Japan.
South Africa's previous RWC titles came on home soil in 1995 and in France in 2007. In RWC 2015 they suffered a shock pool stage defeat to Japan before wins over Scotland, Samoa and USA saw them top their pool. A hard earned win over Wales in the quarter finals was followed by a semi final exit to New Zealand (20-18).
Line Ups
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Ardie Savea, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody
Substitutes: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Ofa Tuungafasi, 18 Angus Ta’avao, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Shannon Frizell, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Sonny Bill Williams, 23 Ben Smith
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Tendai Mtawarira, 18 Trevor Nyakane, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Francois Louw, 21 Herschel Jantjies, 22 Frans Steyn, 23 Jesse Kriel
Head to Head
As you can see from the results below, the last 4 head to heads have gone right down to the wire and the last RWC meeting came in the semi finals of 2015 which the All Blacks edged by 2 points.
2019 Wellington New Zealand 16-16 South Africa (Tries 1-1 )
2018 Pretoria South Africa 30–32 New Zealand (Tries 3-4 )
2018 Wellington New Zealand 34-36 South Africa (Tries 6-5 )
2017 Cape Town South Africa 24–25 New Zealand (Tries 3-3 )
2017 Albany New Zealand 57-0 South Africa (Tries 8-0)
2016 Durban South Africa 15–57 New Zealand (Tries 0-9 )
2016 Christchurch New Zealand 41-13 South Africa (Tries 6-1 )
2015 Twickenham New Zealand 20-18 South Africa (Tries 2-0 ) (RWC semi final)
2015 Johannesburg South Africa 20–27 New Zealand (Tries 2-3 )
2014 Johannesburg South Africa 27–25 New Zealand (Tries 3-2 )
2014 Wellington New Zealand 14-10 South Africa (Tries 1-1 )
Betting – Match Result
New Zealand 4/10
Draw 28/1
South Africa 9/4
Handicap
New Zealand -6.5 points at 9/10
South Africa +6.5 points at 9/10
Quotes are an average of what was on offer from a selection of bookmakers at the time of writing and are subject to change.
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Betting Angle
When the betting opened for this match the Springboks were double digit underdogs, but recent performances have seen punters steam into them to the point where now many of them are giving them a strong chance to win the game. I find myself leaning towards a Boks win as well despite the fact that a lot of my long term bets are based on the fact that they will lose the opening match to New Zealand which could see the Rugby World Cup odds shaken up considerably. The Boks look a settled unit and while I may be reading too much into it, it does appear as though All Black Coach, Hansen, has some selection dilemmas. These may well get sorted out in time, but for now they do look perhaps a bit more vulnerable than we have seen in the past. Either way you look at it I think we are in for a really close game, but I am going to go for the Boks to win at a current best price of 9/4 with World Sports Betting and I am also going to throw in the draw at 28/1 with the same bookmaker. These sides have been almost inseparable of late and the 28/1 looks a big price.
BET: 3 Units Springboks to win at 9/4 WSB, 0.5 Units the draw 28/1 at WSB
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