After drawing 1-1 in Madrid three weeks ago, this tie is finely poised going into the return clash at Old Trafford. United were the clear favourites, but Atletico’s three-game winning run must worry the Red Devils.

 

Recent history suggests both sides are at a disadvantage coming into this one. Manchester United have been eliminated from their last three Champions League knockout stage games when drawing the first leg. However, Atletico have been eliminated in three of the last four occasions they’ve failed to win the first leg at home.

 

Something has to give between those two records in this clash, but defensive issues for both sides should ensure this one is close.

Having had the reputation as one of Europe’s best defenses, Atletico have regressed this season. They’ve also gone six games without a clean sheet in the Champions League, while they’ve conceded in 10 of their last 12. Atletico also haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their eight total away games against English teams in this competition, conceding 14 goals overall.

 

That record should delight Cristiano Ronaldo, who has scored in both of his Champions League home games for Manchester United since returning to the club. The Portuguese has 13 goals in his last 15 home games against Atletico, so back him to follow up his weekend hat-trick with a goal in this clash.

However, with four wins from their last five games the Spanish champions are certainly in scoring form. They have their own free-scoring Portuguese going into this game, with Joao Felix scoring in four of his last five, hitting five goals.

Felix, Joao to score anytime 3.30

 

Following on from United’s weekend thriller, it’s easy to see another high-scoring clash at Old Trafford. The Red Devils have seen both teams score in six of their last eight matches, while six of their seven Champions League games this term have finished without a clean sheet for either side.

Total goals (2.5) over 2.28

 

Given how good both sides look going forward, we can see plenty of goals in this clash. Both teams to score is excellent value considering how rarely the pair keep clean sheets. This one is likely to be close and we can see extra time here, which means we go for a draw after 90min.

 

 

 

Having led twice in Lisbon, it was a bit of a blow for Ajax to come away with only a 2-2 draw in their first leg clash with Benfica. The Eredivisie leaders have emerged as a serious threat in this competition, which isn’t good news for Benfica. Their bid for a first quarter-final berth in six years looks unlikely, especially given they’ve only won one of their last 10 away games against Dutch sides in European competition.

 

The Dutch giants blitzed their group – no mean feat given it included Borussia Dortmund and Portuguese champions Sporting. They won all six group games, while they’ve been clinical going forward in every game. Ajax have scored at least two goals in all seven of their Champions League games this season, netting 22 times in total. That’s no fluke, as they have four different players in double figures for chances created from open play in the competition this season (Tadic 16, Haller 13, Berghuis 12, Antony 10).

 

In their last two home games in Europe they racked up four goals in each, which doesn’t bode well for a Benfica side who aren’t great European travellers. On top of their issues at Dutch sides, Benfica have only won one of their last 14 away games in the Champions League (D4 L9). They’ve also lost five of their last six knockout round trips, so we have little confidence in them in this trip.

Ajax Amsterdam to win 1.42

 

However, Benfica have seen both teams score in nine of their last 10 games. While they suffered a comprehensive loss at Bayern in the last round, they did score twice in Munich.

 

Ajax have seen BTTS land in four straight European games and in four of their last five overall, so a home win and both teams to score is our first prediction. However, we can’t see this being close, we're backing Ajax to hit four once again in a 4-1 victory.