Couch Critic previews Friday's Rugby World Cup third place play off between New Zealand and Wales with best bets from @Olimp_SA
It’s the game that no one really wants to be involved in. To fill the final weekend up a bit the IRB always stage a 3rd/4th play-off between the unlucky losers from the semi-finals. Whilst there is often little incentive for the players to lift themselves for this rather meaningless extra game it does offer punters one more opportunity to finish the tournament with a bang and it’s an opportunity that I for one just can’t pass up. Here’s is how I see things playing out from a punting perspective in Tokyo on Friday.
NEW ZEALAND vs WALES, Friday 01 November @ 11:00 (Tokyo)
What you need to know
New Zealand were near faultless until they ran into a dominant English outfit who completely outplayed them on the day. The All Blacks have victories over South Africa and Ireland to show for their RWC 2019 efforts.
Wales dismissed Australia in the group stages to secure top spot in their pool. They then scraped past France in the quarter final before coming up short against South Africa last weekend.
Tactics & Team Set-up
Wales have a similar, conservative approach to the Springboks. They limit their errors and back themselves to have the attitude and hunger to squeeze out the positive result in tight games. Unfortunately for the Welsh they have experienced some setbacks on the injury front and this has further hampered their play. It will be interesting to see whether the release of pressure for this game will see them embrace a more attacking approach. With the leading tryscorer of the tournament, Josh Adams in their ranks they are clearly not that bad at getting the ball wide when they do eventually decide to have a go.
I think it is now safe to say that this isn’t the same All Black team of years gone by. I did mention it earlier that it is actually quite an inexperienced NZ outfit in general and they haven’t really been able to string a number of solid performances together in quite some time. There are still glimpses of the lethal, all-conquering AB’s that many around the globe know and love but we don’t see this side of them as consistently as we’re used to.
In terms of team news the All Blacks have, as expected, included a few guys who could be playing their last match with the Black Fern on their chest. It is somewhat surprising not to see Beauden Barrett at ten with Ben Smith in the fullback position whilst Ardie Savea missing from the 23 is also significant. Wales have also reshuffled their backline somewhat.
How I see it panning out
It is often difficult for sides to mentally lift themselves for this specific clash. I do however feel that the AB’s have more to play for on Friday. Steve Hansen will not want to sign off on a false note and the pride in the black jersey will also mean they will want to redeem themselves in aftermath of the pummelling at the hands of the Poms. Wales must be physically and emotionally spent, and I see their opponents putting the boot in.
Betting Strategy
My betting strategy will be based on ways to back a big All Black backlash against a Welsh team who I think will struggle to lift themselves for this one. In particular I expect the guys who are retiring from international rugby to shine one last time. Expect to see Ben Smith sail in for a score and Kieran Read to have a monster game. Frizell has the handy knack of scoring so I will put a few pennies on the Highlander loose forward getting the party started.
Betolimp Best Bet: New Zealand to win and beat the handicap of -18.5 @ 1.85
Betolimp Value Play: Wales under 1.5 tries @ 2.14
Special Play 1: First Tryscorer – Shannon Frizell @ 17.00
Special Play 2: Anytime Tryscorer – Ben Smith @ 1.90
Special Play 3: Last Tryscorer – Brad Weber @ 17.00
Special Play 4: Kieran Read to be man of the match @ 9.5
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change
Couch Critic
