Couch Critic previews the NRL matches taking place on 11th and 12th March including his best bets and tryscorer specials with @Olimp_SA
NRL ROUND 1 – THURSDAY & FRIDAY MATCHES
Big hits, flying finishes in the corner and more discipline issues off the field than on it – yes, NRL is back baby! Let’s take a look at the early action in Week 1.
MELBOURNE STORM vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS – Thu 11 Mar @ 11:05, Melbourne.
Wow what an opener to the 2021 season! The defending champs start their defence of the title against the oldest, proudest and loudest.
Souths finished the latter part of the 2020 season like Lewis Hamilton late for a fashion show – flying! Little has changed in their set-up for this season. The duo of Walker and Reynolds will look to weave their magic whilst Latrell Mitchell must be due a big season. They also have last season’s leading tryscorer, Alex Johnston cooling his heels on the left edge just waiting to add to his try tally.
Melbourne start life without Cam Smith but still have a solid spine with Brandon Smith, Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster all present to ensure the likes of Papenhuyzen and Josh “The Fox” Addo-Carr get plenty of ball out wide.
This game is likely to be decided by a very narrow margin. The go-forward created by the big bullies upfront should decide this one.
Verdict
I’m not willing to stick my neck out and call a winner. Over the course of the season I like Souths to out-perform the Storm but, on the day, in front of their home fans this is a coin flip. Decide who you like best and take them to win by a margin of 1-7 point (both available at 4.50) is probably the way to go here.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS – Fri 12 Mar @ 09:00, Newcastle
The Knights had an up-and-down season last year. In 2021 they start their campaign against a Bulldogs unit who have opened the cheque book in the off-season. New recruits, Corey Allen, Nick Cotric and Kyle Flanagan have all been rolled out for this clash in Newcastle. The Bulldogs picked up a nice pre-season trial win over the Sharks whilst the Knights were humbled by the Storm.
Verdict
Newcastle are a different team without Ponga in their ranks so to me the value lies with the visitors who are primed for a much improved 2021 in my opinion.
BRISBANE BRONCOS vs PARRAMATTA EELS – Fri 12 Mar @ 11:05, Brisbane
It’s not often that fans from Brisbane are as quiet as the Royal family after an Oprah interview before the start of a season. But Bronco fans are nervously awaiting the kick-off of the first game not with hope of winning gold at the end of it all but with angst to see whether their side can at least be a little less shit than last year! Unfortunately for the Broncos they hit the pragmatic Parramatta right out the gate. The Eels struggle to hold their form throughout a season but are seemingly always well in the mix till the business end of the season.
Verdict
There is a lot to like about the Eels side on paper. Stagss, Haas and of course Fifita are missing from this Broncos side and as such I don’t see the 11-match losing streak being broken in this first week of the season for the hosts.
BETOLIMP BETS (in order of preference)
Double: Eels on the board onto Bulldogs +11.5 @ 1.81 (Best Bet)
Storm vs Rabbitohs: HT/FT Margin - Storm (1-8) / Rabbitohs (13+) @ 34.00
Yes I know I said I expect a close one but if there is one team this season who can pull away and pile on a score then its this Bunnies outfit. This price looks a touch of value which makes it worth a nibble.
Knights vs Bulldogs: HT/FT Margin – Knights (1-8) / Bulldogs (1-12) @ 12.00
I give the Bulldogs a decent shot at upsetting their hosts and this play gives me a juicy price for this outcome.
Broncos vs Eels: HT/FT Margin – Broncos (1-8) / Eels (1-12) @ 10.00
The Broncos could come out hungry but eventually lose their composure against a well drilled Eels outfit the usually bring the heat for the full 80.
Tryscorers
Storm vs Rabbitohs
Anytime Tryscorer: Nelson Asofa-Solomona @ 4.50
To score two or more tries – Cody Walker @ 11.00
Walker was in the middle of everything for Souths last season and already has a hat trick to his name in the pre-season trials. Asofa-Solomona starts at lock and should be keen as mustered as he leads from the front with a typically abrasive outing.
Knights vs Bulldogs
Wincast: Bradman Best to score the first try and Bulldogs to win @ 26.00
Last Tryscorer: Raymond Faitala-Mariner @ 21.00
Broncos vs Eels
Wincast: Xavier Coates to score the first try and Parramatta to win the game @ 19.00
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