Couch Critic provides his outright betting tips for the 2020 edition of the Tour de France which gets underway on Saturday 29th August.
TOUR DE FRANCE 2020
The biggest cycling event of the year is finally upon us. Early on cycling fans were eagerly awaiting this showdown between the very best in the business – the 2019 Vuelta winner, Primoz Roglic was primed to take on Ineos/Sky who have taken seven of the past eight titles. Instead of Roglic (with Tom Dumoulin by his side) and his Jumbo-Visma team duelling it out with the mighty machine that is Ineos for the ultimate honours, COVID as well as crashes and injury have thrown the cat amongst the pigeons. In the crazy year that is 2020 this event could be all sorts of fun and unpredictable – here’s my take on cycling’s three-week long Superbowl.
The Route
The parcours (fancy French word meaning the course or route) this year doesn’t hold too much of an advantage for the time-trialling specialists as there is only one race against the clock and that’s on a route with a nice hill at the end. Despite the lack of TT’s this still isn’t the most mountainous parcours ever rolled out for the Tour. The Pyrenees look like they will offer some fun early action yet it is surprising that we don’t find a summit finish here. From the look of things there are some good challenges along the way which will separate the boys form the men but ultimately we should see the Alps deciding matters as always. On Stage 15 the climb up the Grand Colombier is a major obstacle (along with 2 other Cat 1 climbs) whilst Stage 17 to Méribel is a beast with two HC climbs in succession. Lastly the Stage 20 TT will crown the champ.
Going for gold
It feels like everyone near the top of the betting boards offer a reason not to back them:
Roglic – Crashed in Dauphiné and rumours are that he isn’t quite ready for this.
Bernal - Withdrew from Dauphiné with a sore back and was not as close enough to Roglic’s level.
Domoulin – Still working his way back to his top form and second fiddle behind Primoz.
Pinot – The French flair usually bites back with one bad stage costing him.
Carapaz – His target was the Giro and he isn’t yet operating at top level, also second to Bernal.
Pogacar – Youngster hasn’t hit the highs of 2019 just yet.
Alaphilippe – Not in the same form of 2019 and doubt he is targeting GC as he will prefer stage wins.
Buchmann – Another who is recovering from injury and had to spend time off the bike recently.
Quintana – Knee issue after a crash has hampered his prep.
Miguel Angel Lopez – The Astana man hasn’t sparked into action in 2020 as of yet and usually ends up losing important time on one or two stages.
From the above you can see it really is a weird race that we are in for in 2020. Apart from crashes and the re-jigged calendar there is the further concern that COVID could rule riders and teams out during the course of the race. Given all this uncertainty I feel the only way to go in this one is to look for some longer shot value and enjoy the ride!
Mountain Goats
A favourite betting market includes the Mountain Classification (Polka dot jersey). Julian Alaphilippe is the bookies’ shortest price yet I have my doubts on the talented Frenchie. He certainly has the quality needed to win but given his success last year the other riders won’t be keen to offer Ala P much room to manoeuvre. Unless he really drops a bucket load of time early doors the chances are he will be watched quite closely and thus struggle to get into too many long distance breaks (which is where major Mountain points are found).
When scanning for other opportunities one needs to consider who will be on team duty rather than being afforded the chance to go for the polka jersey. Guys like Sepp Kuss, Formolo, De La Cruz, Kamna, etc could all be worthy shots but might have to offer themselves for their respective team leaders.
Green Jersey
Given the nature of the course I struggle to see an out and out sprinter being able to take this. Unfortunately Michael Matthews hasn’t made the cut, as he was the most likely to challenge Peter Sagan. Wout van Aert is also the perfect rider but will surely be all-in for leader Roglic. Thus I won’t be opposing Sagan here as I reckon this is his main objective for the year.
BETOLIMP BEST BETS
Mountain Classification - BET HERE
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Lennard Kamna (@ 32.00) – The impressive young German took victory on Stage 4 of the Duaphine and finished 8th overall. With doubt around Buchmann being able to compete at the top level for 3 weeks after his injuries, Bora-Hansgrohe could very well unleash Kamna to try and go for Polka.
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Ilnur Zakarin (@ 34.00) – The Russian hasn’t been in peak condition in recent times but he is one of the finest outright climbers in the peloton when on song and the CCC rider looks a touch of value.
Overall Top 3 - BET HERE
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Miguel Angel Lopez (@ 6.75) – Plenty ahead of him in the betting have some serious question marks around them. The Columbian is still only 26 years old and might feel like he has something to prove now that people are starting to talk more about his countrymen Daniel Martinez, Sergio Higuita and of course Bernal.
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Guilluame Martin (@ 21.00) – Martin is trending in the right direction for mind. His price for a top 10 is too short considering the dangers a three-week race hold (especially in 2020) but given the price he is worth an outside nibble in this market. Should the top 2 not make it to Paris then the Cofidis rider is right in it with a shot to podium.
To win the whole thing BET HERE
Well I suppose I have to take the plunge and pick an outright winner, so here goes.
Thibaut Pinot to win the 2020 Tour de France @ 7.00. The poor bugger failed to finish any of the last four events (he skipped the race in 2018) but somehow, I’m ready to back the Frenchman one more time. The route should suit him and he looks to have good legs – it’s all about not having that one disastrous day which sees everything end in tears for good old Pinot.
Vive le Tour!
Note, odds are subject to change
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Couch Critic
