Wales bid to clinch a quarter final place when they take on Fiji in a Rugby World Cup Pool D clash in Oita on Wednesday.
Wales v Fiji, Wednesday 9th October, Oita, KO 11:45 (South African time)
Weather Forecast – Oita (note this stadium has a retractable roof)
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
Assistant referees: Romain Poite (France), Karl Dickson (England)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Wales
Wales have won both their matches so far and victory here will guarantee a place in the quarter finals. They still have a final pool match against Uruguay to come so although Wales have 9 points, 2 fewer than Australia, they have a game in hand on the Wallabies and hence they are in the pound seats when it comes to topping the pool.
Should Wales secure their place England or France will provide the opposition in the last 8. In the outright betting to win the tournament Wales are trading either side of 9/1. Wales to reach the semi finals is generally priced at around 4/7 and it's 11/4 for the Welsh to reach the final.
The crunch game in this pool always looked likely to be Wales' clash with Australia and the Welsh edged it 29-25. Wales started as narrow favourites to win that game and they took control with a 23-8 half time lead. The Wallabies hit back to get within a point only for Wales to stretch that lead to 4 with a 71st minute penalty and they held on in a frantic finish.
Earlier Wales came through their opening match of the tournament with a 43-14 bonus point win over Georgia, just covering a pre-match handicap of around 27.5 points.. The first of their 6 tries came as early as the second minute and by half time the lead had increased to 29-0.
Fiji
Fiji got their first win at the third time of asking, coming out on top 45-10 against Georgia, securing a bonus point and easily covering a minus handicap in the process. Fiji started as 7 point favourites to win that game and although they led just 7-3 at half time they scored a further 5 tries after the break and coasted to victory.
Unfortunately for Fiji they lost their first 2 matches in this pool and the 30-27 shock defeat to Uruguay in their second outing looked really expensive at the time and even more so now. They had started with a 39-21 loss to Australia, a game they led 14-12 at half time and 21-12 early in the second half before the Wallabies got on top in the final quarter.
Securing third place in the pool will now be the most realistic aim and Fiji's total of 7 log points is 2 more than Georgia (who's final pool match comes against the Wallabies) and 3 more than Uruguay who finish up against Wales at the weekend.
Line Ups
Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 James Davies, 6 Josh Navidi, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Jake Ball, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Wyn Jones
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Rhys Carre, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Aaron Shingler, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Tomos Williams, 22
Rhys Patchell, 23 Owen Watkin
Fiji: 15 Kini Murimurivalu, 14 Josua Tuisova, 13 Waisea Nayacalevu, 12 Levani Botia, 11 Semi Radradra, 10 Ben Volavola, 9 Frank Lomani, 8 Viliame Mata, 7 Semi Kunatani, 6 Dominiko Waqaniburotu (c), 5 Leone Nakarawa, 4 Tevita Cavubati, 3 Manasa Saulo, 2 Samuel Matavesi, 1 Campese Ma’afu
Replacements: 16 Mesulame Dolokoto, 17 Eroni Mawi, 18 Peni Ravai, 19 Apisalome Ratuniyarawa, 20 Peceli Yato, 21 Nikola Matawalu, 22 Jale Vatubua, 23 Josh Matavesi
Head to Head
The teams have met 11 times in all competitions with Wales winning 9 to Fiji's 1 and there has been 1 draw.
The most recent meeting came in Cardiff in RWC 2015 and Wales won a pool stage match 23-13.
When the teams met in RWC 2011 in Hamilton, New Zealand, Wales won a pool stage match 66-0.
Fiji's only win over Wales came in RWC 2007 in France when they won a pool stage match 38-34
Early Betting – Handicap
Wales -16.5 points at 9/10
Fiji +16.5 points at 9/10
Quotes are an average of what was on offer from a selection of bookmakers at the time of writing and are subject to change.
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Betting Angle
Fiji have blown hot and cold in this Rugby World Cup and I am expecting them to be fired up for this their final match of the tournament. Whether they can beat the Welsh is questionable, but it would not surprise me if they gave them a scare.
That being said I don’t have enough confidence in Fiji to have a big bet on the handicap and will look for a longer priced play.
For Wales any win will do and I am going to back them to win this by 12 points or less at what looks a tasty price.
Bet: 2 units Wales win by 1-12 points inclusive at 24/10 at Sunbet
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