Uefa Champions League title holders Liverpool are 1-0 down to Atletico Madrid as we head into the Round of 16 second leg which takes place at Anfield on Wednesday night
Liverpool
Liverpool were favourites to take a first leg lead in Madrid 3 weeks ago but they conceded in fourth minute and that proved to be the only goal of the game. Since the first leg Liverpool's fortunes have been mixed. They did beat West Ham 3-2 at Anfield in a league game before a shock 3-0 defeat at Watford torpedoed any chance of going through the Premier League campaign unbeaten. A changed side then lost a fifth round FA Cup tie at Chelsea (2-0) but at the weekend Liverpool came from behind to win 2-1 at home to Bournemouth and the league title remains a formality.
Inspiration will be taken from last season's knockout rounds against Spanish opposition when Liverpool found themselves 3-0 down to Barcelona after the first leg of a semi final at Camp Nou. They won the return 4-0 at Anfield and went on to be crowned champions. Liverpool haven't lost a home game in the Champions League since the group stage in 2014.
On the team news front goalkeeper Alisson has been ruled out of this clash and in the betting to be crowned Uefa Champions this season Liverpool are trading in the region of 7/1.
Atletico Madrid
Saul was Atletico's goalscorer in the first leg and they restricted Liverpool to just 2 attempts on goal. If they are to protect that first leg lead they are likely to need to step up on away form in the group stage. Atletico did win 2-0 at Lokomotiv but subsequent road trips saw them beaten at Leverkusen (2-1) and Juventus (1-0).
Last season Atletico were knocked out in the last 16 by Juventus 3-2 on aggregate even though they won the first leg 2-0 in Madrid.
At the time of writing Atletico were fifth in the La Liga standings, 13 points off the pace being set by Barcelona and 11 behind Real Madrid. They have won just 3 of 13 road trips alongside 7 draws and 3 defeats and they have generally been tight games with 11 goals scored and 12 conceded.
In the betting to be crowned Uefa Champions this season Atletico are trading in the region of 22/1.
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The Betting:
To win this second leg in 90 minutes Liverpool are trading at around 11/2 whilst the draw is 14/5 and Atletico are 23/4. To advance to the next round via any method either side can be backed at 9/10.
It's 21/20 for both sides to score in 90 minutes and a game of 3 goals or more in total is an even money shout.
Verdict:
Although Liverpool's recent performances have dipped significantly they have been rotating their line up, no doubt with this second leg in mind. If an early breakthrough doesn't arrive for Klopp's team it could be an nervy night and Atletico certainly know how to defend.
I'm sat on the fence between under and over 2.5 goals so 2-3 in total in the aggregate market is a logical way for me to play this one.
Bets: 90 minute total goals 2-3 at even money
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