URC Quarters, Super Rugby Rd 11, Currie Cup Rd 9 5-7 May
- Brent Graham
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I lost on Toulon overs thanks to that red card but the Newsletter Best Bet ( Click here to join our mailing list ) La Rochelle -11.5 trotted up and I loaded their overs at 33.5 as well
So a decent weekend in the end
Lots of great rugby this weekend starting with the URC quarters where the caps are out
Ulster -10.5 v Connacht
Stormers -6.5 v Bulls
Leinster -18.5 v Sharks
Glasgow -1.5 v Munster
There is also Super Rugby and here are my projected caps (not up to speed with which players may be rested so keep an eye out for this info and please share here if you hear anything)
Highlanders +13.5 v Chiefs
Drua +12.5 v Hurricanes
Crusaders -24.5 v Force
Blues -28.5 v Moana Pasifika
Reds -8.5 v Waratahs
Rebels +5.5 v Brumbies
The Currie Cup continues, here are my projected caps
Griquas +13.5 v Lions
Pumas -29.5 v Griffons
Cheetahs -9.5 v WP
Bulls +7.5 v Sharks
Have a great week everyone!
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- wslark1
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Final round, there's still room for movement in the midfield
Hopefully a few slip ups here and there from the books
Shortlist:
Bath minus (Anything under 4 or 5)
L Irish minus (Any single digit figure)
Quins line (This could fall between +3 and -3, we just don't know how strong Leicester will go)
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- R3V3R3NT_
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Drua +12.5 v Hurricanes
Crusaders -21.5 v Force
Blues -20.5 v Moana Pasifika
Reds PK v Waratahs
Rebels +4.5 v Brumbies
I'm assuming there's a number of players rested through these games this week.
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- R3V3R3NT_
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R3V3R3NT_ wrote:
Highlanders +17.5 (+17.5) v Chiefs
Drua +12.5 (+14.5) v Hurricanes
Crusaders -21.5 (-23.5) v Force
Blues -20.5 (-27.5) v Moana Pasifika
Reds PK (-3.5) v Waratahs
Rebels +4.5 (+11.5) v Brumbies
I'm assuming there's a number of players rested through these games this week.
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- Brent Graham
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Highlanders +13.5 v Chiefs (+14.5)
Drua +12.5 v Hurricanes (+11.5)
Crusaders -24.5 v Force (-25.5)
Blues -28.5 v Moana Pasifika (-25.5)
Reds -8.5 v Waratahs (-3.5)
Rebels +5.5 v Brumbies (+8.5)
Top 3 all within a point - Reds v Waratahs the big difference - not rushing in at this point
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- Brent Graham
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Griquas +13.5 v Lions (+16.5)
Pumas -29.5 v Griffons (-26.5)
Cheetahs -9.5 v WP (-7.5)
Bulls +7.5 v Sharks (+2.5)
I like the Sharks -2.5 against the Bulls who will be back to their Currie Cup side
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- Laraxwell
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Match is in Dublin
Glasgow v Toulon
Glasgow scored a comfortable away win v Scarlets in the SF - a Scarlets side who beat a loaded Sharks side and Clermont on route to the SF
14 man Toulon were comfortable 23 nil winners v Benetton. Stuck in the headlights performance from Benetton and I felt little went right for them.
Toulon are 6/7 pt favs. I feel this is value in Glasgow on Money line at close to 2/1 and certainly on + handicap.
They do have a tricky URC QF v Munster this wkend so will watch selection with interest
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- kt6747
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- Laraxwell
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Qualifying rules are a bit of a head scratcher.
Open to correction but my understanding is:
Despite Sharks finishing top 8 in URC log, Cardiff (10th) usurp them as they finished top of the Welsh Shield.
The shields are 4 regional sub pools:
SA
Wales
Ireland
Ita&Sco
So Sharks only route to ERC Champions Cup is to win the URC
Toulon look well placed to make next season's cup via their T14 ranking
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- kt6747
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Thanks for the clarifacation.
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- Mondo86
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Hurricanes over 37.5 & Crusaders over 48.5 & Blues over 46.5
@ 7.5
Pumas -29.5 looks good too - I think they make a statement this week
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- Pablo
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In the first match Carcassonne needs a BP win against Provence (that has nothing to play for so I expect big rotation) to avoid relegation and waiting for Angouleme to leave empty handed from visit to leaders Oyonnax.
In the second match Nevers is playing to reach position 3rd or 4th to have a home QF but as Vannes plays in Grenoble a simple win will be enough for the neversois. Montauban won last week so the avoid relegation with last round to play so I expect a big rotation after a big celebration.
*Adding 1.5u up to 2.5 to Nevers -17.5 @1.90 as a french friend from Montauban just told me Montauban sent the group and it is full of academy players in the backline
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- Pablo
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I expect a big home win, strong compo and mid afternoon kick off so conditions will be good.
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- Brent Graham
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- southpaw
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- shark prince
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Hurricanes 1-21 2.5 units - would be on the Drua plus for 2 units if I didn't have that market. Drua should keep it tight, a late try could decide the cap so am hesitant on the plus.
Tahs will give the Reds a very good go, but Reds have had the wood over the Tahs. Either team to win by less than 11.5 X Chiefs win at $2.02 (TAB). 3.5/5 units.
Don't have points markets on Crusaders match yet at my bookies. Think 28.5 is wayyyy too big, I capped it at +17.5. Will make a call between the plus and force points when I have the markets (2 units max).
Don't like a bet in the Blues game, Blues have no value imo. May be a late strike on overs Moana points. (2 units max)
I like Rebels +10.5 a lot, capped it at +6.5. Waiting for points markets before triggering either Rebels points or plus. (3-4 units)
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- Brent Graham
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- shaft
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"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Brent Graham
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I was going to take a rare half time handicap play on the minus for reasons outlined in the show but my Irish mate Dave has pointed out conditions will be poor and unders is the call
Under 57.5
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- Mondo86
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- hanrick
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Have thought about the Griquas vs Lions game a bit more. That Griquas points line of 23.5 is too low. In Kimberley on a Friday afternoon, with good conditions you can't offer me that line on Griquas points. Like that over 23.5 strong.
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- shaft
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hanrick wrote: Landers under 21.5 points main bet this morning
Have thought about the Griquas vs Lions game a bit more. That Griquas points line of 23.5 is too low. In Kimberley on a Friday afternoon, with good conditions you can't offer me that line on Griquas points. Like that over 23.5 strong.
Griekwas win @ 3/1 surely worth a play too
"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- hanrick
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shaft wrote:
hanrick wrote: Landers under 21.5 points main bet this morning
Have thought about the Griquas vs Lions game a bit more. That Griquas points line of 23.5 is too low. In Kimberley on a Friday afternoon, with good conditions you can't offer me that line on Griquas points. Like that over 23.5 strong.
Griekwas win @ 3/1 surely worth a play too
Agree. Obviously like the Griquas plus aswell. But that over 23.5 stands out like a sore thumb
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- southpaw
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1st highlanders try Frizell 10/1
last try Nankervil @ 20/1
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- Brent Graham
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Currie Cup Preview for WSB - main bets will likely come when points are out on Pumas game
Was looking forward to Drua v Canes only to find it is tomorrow
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- southpaw
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southpaw wrote: Overs in Dunedin starting to trap and tempt me. Under roof, decent overs ref. Just worry Chiefs defence been solid most season. 57.5 is maybe a few points too much? I’m still damn tempted though!
FFS should have listened to my gut but overthought things and left the overs alone.
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- Brent Graham
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Reds v Waratahs preview
Joining the Understaker - Waratahs board at 14/10
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- Brent Graham
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- Pablo
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Weakened group sent by Usap (Lam, Eru, Oviedo, Lemalu, Shields, McIntyre, De la Fuente, Crossdale, Taumoepeau out) while Lou in very fine form and fighting for the barrage. Too much absences in Usap side so I think value is in the home side as they are looking for a 5 point win tomorrow.
*Adding one more unit up to 3u as Usap finally fields even a weaker team. Lou over points is a must as I expect a one way match.
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- Brent Graham
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The weekends final preview and I am sticking with the Stormers -6.5
Now to focus on making some money in the Currie and and URC later
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- Pablo
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Looks like big home win, on paper they are +30 points favourites.
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- Mondo
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Griquas come out firing here I think & with rain expected in a cold Belfast I think this is a tight match but hedging alot -
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- Flemenstar
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- Brent Graham
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- southpaw
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Force under 25.5
@ 8/11
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- hanrick
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- hanrick
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Brent Graham wrote: Decent strike u50.5 in Ulster match
Well played, Brent. Never in doubt!
Connacht now to roll the winner of the game in Cape Town tomorrow to validate my call of no SA team in the final.
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- Pablo
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Pablo wrote: In the always interesting Pro D2 I go with Carcassonne -14 @1.90 2u and Nevers -17 @1.90 2.5u*
In the first match Carcassonne needs a BP win against Provence (that has nothing to play for so I expect big rotation) to avoid relegation and waiting for Angouleme to leave empty handed from visit to leaders Oyonnax.
In the second match Nevers is playing to reach position 3rd or 4th to have a home QF but as Vannes plays in Grenoble a simple win will be enough for the neversois. Montauban won last week so the avoid relegation with last round to play so I expect a big rotation after a big celebration.
*Adding 1.5u up to 2.5 to Nevers -17.5 @1.90 as a french friend from Montauban just told me Montauban sent the group and it is full of academy players in the backline
The always interesting Pro D2 delivers, big home wins both. Interesting until the end as Carcassonne gets relegated after Angouleme´s 77th minute try to avoid the red zone.
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- shark prince
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Rebels +10.5, 3 units
Canes over 30.5 X Munster +7.5, 2 units at evens
Moana +26.5, 2 units. Not much value in the game, like most Blues games imo. Taking biggest minus in potentially slippery conditions
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- Chiefie
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Brent Graham wrote: Highlanders v Chiefs betting preview
Chiefs -13.5
Drua v Canes
under 64.5
5-7 at HT in the drua v canes game, 33 points in 20 min in the 2nd half. Can’t believe what I’m watching. 19 points to play with in 20 min. Can see this ending 45-40 in the last 20.
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- Brent Graham
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Taken over 9.5 tries at 1/1 in Saders game
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- Chiefie
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Brent Graham wrote: At half time the unders looked banked but after a wobble arrived with a score to spare
Taken over 9.5 tries at 1/1 in Saders game
I was wobbling. But thankfully dropped balls, reset scrums and kicking for poles ensued. That was looking ominous with 5 tries in 15 mins.
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- shaft
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"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Kirky
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So, I'm gonna empty my accounts onto Pumas -30.5 and the devil can have the rest.
Fuck this.
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- R3V3R3NT_
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- cluaindiuic
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Interested to see what ye think of the Sharks line up. 8(?) Springbok internationals. Missing a few. If Sharks had their first choice of everyone available they'd be genuine contenders. Lock has been a Sharks weakness a while.
Anyway, the hcap (18-20 in places) looks very big to me.
Selection is one reason. Two other reasons, 1 already highlighted, meant to be dogshit weather here today. Wet ball.
Finally, knock out rugby gets tight. Kicking penalties rather than kicking for corner. Leinster got chinned in the semi final last year. I think they've too strong a bench for that to happen again but I wouldn't be shocked if its tighter than expected and that hcap is too big.
Ht/ft Sharks/Leinster could also be worth a nibble.
Rolling Stones of the rap game, not braggin'
Lips bigger than Jagger, not saggin'
Spell it backwards, I'ma leave it at that...
That ain't got nuttin to do with rap
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- southpaw
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Conditions looked great at Townsville for women’s game earlier and 68 points in that game. Hoping reds and Tahs can do similar with best overs ref.
Reds tahs over 56.5 @ 10/11
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