URC Quarters, Super Rugby Rd 11, Currie Cup Rd 9 5-7 May

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1 year 5 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
It was a roller coaster for me and having gone 0/3 on Friday I was under big pressure Saturday morning but hit a great run to show a profit on all of my Saturday games including Toulouse where a last minute try got the overs home

I lost on Toulon overs thanks to that red card but the Newsletter Best Bet ( Click here to join our mailing list ) La Rochelle -11.5 trotted up and I loaded their overs at 33.5 as well

So a decent weekend in the end

Lots of great rugby this weekend starting with the URC quarters where the caps are out

Ulster -10.5 v Connacht
Stormers -6.5 v Bulls
Leinster -18.5 v Sharks
Glasgow -1.5 v Munster

There is also Super Rugby and here are my projected caps (not up to speed with which players may be rested so keep an eye out for this info and please share here if you hear anything)

Highlanders +13.5 v Chiefs
Drua +12.5 v Hurricanes
Crusaders -24.5 v Force
Blues -28.5 v Moana Pasifika
Reds -8.5 v Waratahs
Rebels +5.5 v Brumbies

The Currie Cup continues, here are my projected caps

Griquas +13.5 v Lions
Pumas -29.5 v Griffons
Cheetahs -9.5 v WP
Bulls +7.5 v Sharks

Have a great week everyone!

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1 year 5 months ago #2 by wslark1
Keeping my eye out for those Premiership caps in the morning, expecting the playoff teams to rest some big boys

Final round, there's still room for movement in the midfield

Hopefully a few slip ups here and there from the books

Shortlist:
Bath minus (Anything under 4 or 5)
L Irish minus (Any single digit figure)
Quins line (This could fall between +3 and -3, we just don't know how strong Leicester will go)
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1 year 5 months ago #3 by R3V3R3NT_
Highlanders +17.5 v Chiefs
Drua +12.5 v Hurricanes
Crusaders -21.5 v Force
Blues -20.5 v Moana Pasifika
Reds PK v Waratahs
Rebels +4.5 v Brumbies

I'm assuming there's a number of players rested through these games this week.

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1 year 5 months ago #4 by R3V3R3NT_

R3V3R3NT_ wrote:

Highlanders +17.5 (+17.5) v Chiefs
Drua +12.5 (+14.5) v Hurricanes
Crusaders -21.5 (-23.5) v Force
Blues -20.5 (-27.5) v Moana Pasifika
Reds PK (-3.5) v Waratahs
Rebels +4.5 (+11.5) v Brumbies

I'm assuming there's a number of players rested through these games this week.

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1 year 5 months ago #5 by Brent Graham
WSB out with Super Rugby caps - theirs in brackets and based on home team cap

Highlanders +13.5 v Chiefs (+14.5)
Drua +12.5 v Hurricanes (+11.5)
Crusaders -24.5 v Force (-25.5)
Blues -28.5 v Moana Pasifika (-25.5)
Reds -8.5 v Waratahs (-3.5)
Rebels +5.5 v Brumbies (+8.5)

Top 3 all within a point - Reds v Waratahs the big difference - not rushing in at this point

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1 year 5 months ago #6 by Brent Graham
Here are the early Currie Cup caps in brackets

Griquas +13.5 v Lions (+16.5)
Pumas -29.5 v Griffons (-26.5)
Cheetahs -9.5 v WP (-7.5)
Bulls +7.5 v Sharks (+2.5)

I like the Sharks -2.5 against the Bulls who will be back to their Currie Cup side

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1 year 5 months ago - 1 year 5 months ago #7 by Laraxwell
Early call on ERC Challenge Cup final
Match is in Dublin
Glasgow v Toulon

Glasgow scored a comfortable away win v Scarlets in the SF - a Scarlets side who beat a loaded Sharks side and Clermont on route to the SF

14 man Toulon were comfortable 23 nil winners v Benetton. Stuck in the headlights performance from Benetton and I felt little went right for them.

Toulon are 6/7 pt favs. I feel this is value in Glasgow on Money line at close to 2/1 and certainly on + handicap.
They do have a tricky URC QF v Munster this wkend so will watch selection with interest
Last edit: 1 year 5 months ago by Laraxwell. Reason: Error

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1 year 5 months ago #8 by kt6747
Stupid question here, if Glasgow get into the Champions Cup cause they win the Challenge Cup, do the Sharks go through as the extra team or is it Toulon as runner ups?

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1 year 5 months ago - 1 year 5 months ago #9 by Laraxwell
Not a stupid question at all
Qualifying rules are a bit of a head scratcher.

Open to correction but my understanding is:
Despite Sharks finishing top 8 in URC log, Cardiff (10th) usurp them as they finished top of the Welsh Shield.
The shields are 4 regional sub pools:
SA
Wales
Ireland
Ita&Sco

So Sharks only route to ERC Champions Cup is to win the URC

Toulon look well placed to make next season's cup via their T14 ranking
Last edit: 1 year 5 months ago by Laraxwell. Reason: Typo
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1 year 5 months ago #10 by kt6747
Yeah I thought so, but if I remember correctly doesnt the winner of the Challenge Cup also get entry into the Champions Cup, so as a die hard Shark supporter trying to give myself some hope that if Glasgow or Toulon win, then we will get that qualifacation spot. Okay I will just stop my dreaming cause there is Zero chance of us winning on Saturday, I will fall pregant before that happens. LOL

Thanks for the clarifacation.
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1 year 5 months ago #11 by Mondo86
Cheeky treble -

Hurricanes over 37.5 & Crusaders over 48.5 & Blues over 46.5

@ 7.5

Pumas -29.5 looks good too - I think they make a statement this week
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1 year 5 months ago - 1 year 5 months ago #12 by Pablo
In the always interesting Pro D2 I go with Carcassonne -14 @1.90 2u and Nevers -17 @1.90 2.5u*

In the first match Carcassonne needs a BP win against Provence (that has nothing to play for so I expect big rotation) to avoid relegation and waiting for Angouleme to leave empty handed from visit to leaders Oyonnax.

In the second match Nevers is playing to reach position 3rd or 4th to have a home QF but as Vannes plays in Grenoble a simple win will be enough for the neversois. Montauban won last week so the avoid relegation with last round to play so I expect a big rotation after a big celebration.

*Adding 1.5u up to 2.5 to Nevers -17.5 @1.90 as a french friend from Montauban just told me Montauban sent the group and it is full of academy players in the backline
Last edit: 1 year 5 months ago by Pablo.
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1 year 5 months ago #13 by Pablo
And of course I go with Crusaders o46.5 @1.90 2u

I expect a big home win, strong compo and mid afternoon kick off so conditions will be good.
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1 year 5 months ago #14 by Brent Graham
Looking forward to chatting to The Understaker on THE HANDICAP tonight at 21h00

Click here to watch and set a reminder on you tube


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1 year 5 months ago #15 by southpaw
Overs in Dunedin starting to trap and tempt me. Under roof, decent overs ref. Just worry Chiefs defence been solid most season. 57.5 is maybe a few points too much? I’m still damn tempted though!
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1 year 5 months ago #16 by Brent Graham

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1 year 4 months ago #17 by shark prince
Highlanders u23.5 3/5 units. Chiefs defence top notch, slightly concerned about Lienert-Brown starting with not much conditioning. Chiefs should win comfortably. May add 2 units on Chiefs minus.

Hurricanes 1-21 2.5 units - would be on the Drua plus for 2 units if I didn't have that market. Drua should keep it tight, a late try could decide the cap so am hesitant on the plus.

Tahs will give the Reds a very good go, but Reds have had the wood over the Tahs. Either team to win by less than 11.5 X Chiefs win at $2.02 (TAB). 3.5/5 units.

Don't have points markets on Crusaders match yet at my bookies. Think 28.5 is wayyyy too big, I capped it at +17.5. Will make a call between the plus and force points when I have the markets (2 units max).

Don't like a bet in the Blues game, Blues have no value imo. May be a late strike on overs Moana points. (2 units max)

I like Rebels +10.5 a lot, capped it at +6.5. Waiting for points markets before triggering either Rebels points or plus. (3-4 units)
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1 year 4 months ago #18 by Brent Graham
Crusaders v Force Preview

Jordan FTS 9/1
Taylor LTS 9/1

Blues v Moana Preview

Blues -25.5

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1 year 4 months ago #19 by shaft
Chiefs under 36.5 @ 5/6

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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1 year 4 months ago #20 by Brent Graham
Leinster v Sharks betting preview

I was going to take a rare half time handicap play on the minus for reasons outlined in the show but my Irish mate Dave has pointed out conditions will be poor and unders is the call

Under 57.5

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1 year 4 months ago #21 by Mondo86
Highlanders lover 9.5 HT

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1 year 4 months ago #22 by hanrick
Landers under 21.5 points main bet this morning

Have thought about the Griquas vs Lions game a bit more. That Griquas points line of 23.5 is too low. In Kimberley on a Friday afternoon, with good conditions you can't offer me that line on Griquas points. Like that over 23.5 strong.

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1 year 4 months ago #23 by shaft

hanrick wrote: Landers under 21.5 points main bet this morning

Have thought about the Griquas vs Lions game a bit more. That Griquas points line of 23.5 is too low. In Kimberley on a Friday afternoon, with good conditions you can't offer me that line on Griquas points. Like that over 23.5 strong.


Griekwas win @ 3/1 surely worth a play too

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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1 year 4 months ago #24 by hanrick

shaft wrote:

hanrick wrote: Landers under 21.5 points main bet this morning

Have thought about the Griquas vs Lions game a bit more. That Griquas points line of 23.5 is too low. In Kimberley on a Friday afternoon, with good conditions you can't offer me that line on Griquas points. Like that over 23.5 strong.


Griekwas win @ 3/1 surely worth a play too


Agree. Obviously like the Griquas plus aswell. But that over 23.5 stands out like a sore thumb

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1 year 4 months ago #25 by southpaw
Got to respect the unders views from lads, so just for me a couple tryscorer bets -

1st highlanders try Frizell 10/1
last try Nankervil @ 20/1

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1 year 4 months ago #26 by Brent Graham
Chiefs get the weekend off to a decent start

Currie Cup Preview for WSB - main bets will likely come when points are out on Pumas game

Was looking forward to Drua v Canes only to find it is tomorrow

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1 year 4 months ago #27 by southpaw

southpaw wrote: Overs in Dunedin starting to trap and tempt me. Under roof, decent overs ref. Just worry Chiefs defence been solid most season. 57.5 is maybe a few points too much? I’m still damn tempted though!


FFS should have listened to my gut but overthought things and left the overs alone. :(

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1 year 4 months ago #28 by southpaw
Griquas v Lions over 60.5 points

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1 year 4 months ago #29 by Brent Graham
I like that one South and it will likely kick off the newsletter acca

Reds v Waratahs preview

Joining the Understaker - Waratahs board at 14/10

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1 year 4 months ago #30 by Brent Graham

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1 year 4 months ago - 1 year 4 months ago #31 by Pablo
In the not always interesting Top14 I go with Lyon -16.5 @1.80 3u*

Weakened group sent by Usap (Lam, Eru, Oviedo, Lemalu, Shields, McIntyre, De la Fuente, Crossdale, Taumoepeau out) while Lou in very fine form and fighting for the barrage. Too much absences in Usap side so I think value is in the home side as they are looking for a 5 point win tomorrow.

*Adding one more unit up to 3u as Usap finally fields even a weaker team. Lou over points is a must as I expect a one way match.
Last edit: 1 year 4 months ago by Pablo.
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1 year 4 months ago #32 by Brent Graham
Stormers v Bulls Preview

The weekends final preview and I am sticking with the Stormers -6.5

Now to focus on making some money in the Currie and and URC later

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1 year 4 months ago #33 by Pablo
I managed to take Bath -15 @1.90 2u

Looks like big home win, on paper they are +30 points favourites.

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1 year 4 months ago #34 by Mondo
Griquas +8.5 HT & Connacht 20.5 @ 1.87

Griquas come out firing here I think & with rain expected in a cold Belfast I think this is a tight match but hedging alot -

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1 year 4 months ago #35 by Flemenstar
Cold Belfast? Might be a few showers but it's most certainly not cold here. Like a summer's day atm but a few showers

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1 year 4 months ago #36 by Brent Graham
Decent strike u50.5 in Ulster match

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1 year 4 months ago #37 by southpaw
Saders over 41.5
Force under 25.5

@ 8/11

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1 year 4 months ago #38 by hanrick
Drua vs Canes under 62.5 onto Force +28.5 at 26/10

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1 year 4 months ago #39 by hanrick

Brent Graham wrote: Decent strike u50.5 in Ulster match


Well played, Brent. Never in doubt!

Connacht now to roll the winner of the game in Cape Town tomorrow to validate my call of no SA team in the final.

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1 year 4 months ago #40 by Pablo

Pablo wrote: In the always interesting Pro D2 I go with Carcassonne -14 @1.90 2u and Nevers -17 @1.90 2.5u*

In the first match Carcassonne needs a BP win against Provence (that has nothing to play for so I expect big rotation) to avoid relegation and waiting for Angouleme to leave empty handed from visit to leaders Oyonnax.

In the second match Nevers is playing to reach position 3rd or 4th to have a home QF but as Vannes plays in Grenoble a simple win will be enough for the neversois. Montauban won last week so the avoid relegation with last round to play so I expect a big rotation after a big celebration.

*Adding 1.5u up to 2.5 to Nevers -17.5 @1.90 as a french friend from Montauban just told me Montauban sent the group and it is full of academy players in the backline


The always interesting Pro D2 delivers, big home wins both. Interesting until the end as Carcassonne gets relegated after Angouleme´s 77th minute try to avoid the red zone.

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1 year 4 months ago #41 by shark prince
Force +28.5, 2 units

Rebels +10.5, 3 units

Canes over 30.5 X Munster +7.5, 2 units at evens

Moana +26.5, 2 units. Not much value in the game, like most Blues games imo. Taking biggest minus in potentially slippery conditions

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1 year 4 months ago #42 by Chiefie

Brent Graham wrote: Highlanders v Chiefs betting preview

Chiefs -13.5

Drua v Canes

under 64.5


5-7 at HT in the drua v canes game, 33 points in 20 min in the 2nd half. Can’t believe what I’m watching. 19 points to play with in 20 min. Can see this ending 45-40 in the last 20.

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1 year 4 months ago #43 by Brent Graham
At half time the unders looked banked but after a wobble arrived with a score to spare

Taken over 9.5 tries at 1/1 in Saders game

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1 year 4 months ago #44 by Chiefie

Brent Graham wrote: At half time the unders looked banked but after a wobble arrived with a score to spare

Taken over 9.5 tries at 1/1 in Saders game


I was wobbling. But thankfully dropped balls, reset scrums and kicking for poles ensued. That was looking ominous with 5 tries in 15 mins.

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1 year 4 months ago #45 by shaft
Pumas HT -12.5

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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1 year 4 months ago #46 by henryscat
Plummer having an absolute mare as usual

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1 year 4 months ago #47 by Kirky
Boy-o-boy, am I taking a beating again or what ?

So, I'm gonna empty my accounts onto Pumas -30.5 and the devil can have the rest.
Fuck this.

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1 year 4 months ago #48 by R3V3R3NT_
I'm pretty salty not on the Moana + If I knew Barrett was out I would have slammed it. I missed the build up and the first 15 of the game.

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1 year 4 months ago - 1 year 4 months ago #49 by cluaindiuic
Greetings from Ireland. This Leinster selection is pretty bad. I'd say 4 starting players in the lineup. Furlong, Sheehan, Doris and Keenan.

Interested to see what ye think of the Sharks line up. 8(?) Springbok internationals. Missing a few. If Sharks had their first choice of everyone available they'd be genuine contenders. Lock has been a Sharks weakness a while.

Anyway, the hcap (18-20 in places) looks very big to me.
Selection is one reason. Two other reasons, 1 already highlighted, meant to be dogshit weather here today. Wet ball.
Finally, knock out rugby gets tight. Kicking penalties rather than kicking for corner. Leinster got chinned in the semi final last year. I think they've too strong a bench for that to happen again but I wouldn't be shocked if its tighter than expected and that hcap is too big.

Ht/ft Sharks/Leinster could also be worth a nibble.

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Last edit: 1 year 4 months ago by cluaindiuic.
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1 year 4 months ago #50 by southpaw
Saders got me back up for weekend.

Conditions looked great at Townsville for women’s game earlier and 68 points in that game. Hoping reds and Tahs can do similar with best overs ref.

Reds tahs over 56.5 @ 10/11

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