URC Semi-Finals, Super Rugby & Currie Cup Rugby 12-14 May
- Brent Graham
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I had a few losses as well and in the end lumped most of what I was up on under 60.5 in Rebels v Brumbies - what a sweat the whole match was with 35 points in the 1st half and then the final agonizing minutes with the Rebels hot on attack.
All is well that ends well and I will head into next week high on confidence (a pity we missed the 15/1 newsletter acca by 1 leg with Griquas v Lions under 60.5 dropping us)
This week with the the URC semi's and I am keen to get my caps in before I see the bookies lines
Stormers -8.5 v Connacht
Leinster -18.5 v Munster (I would have gone closer to 10 but Munster depth is seriously under pressure after heavy injuries last night)
Here are my Super Rugby Projected Caps done without full insight as to which internationals may be rested
Chiefs -16.5 v Reds
Force -10.5 v Drua
Hurricanes -22.5 v Moana
Crusaders -5.5 v Blues
Waratahs -7.5 v Rebels
Brumbies -8.5 v Highlanders
Currie Cup Projected Caps
Griffons +18.5 v WP
Pumas -3.5 v Sharks
Griquas +12.5 v Bulls (I am assuming Jake throws the kitchen sink at the CC now and URC players are brought in)
Cheetahs -3.5 v Lions (assuming Lions also bring their remaining URC players to the ;party)
Look forward to sharing bets and info
BG
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- hanrick
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- wslark1
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Leicester have been priced up at +3.5 vs Sale this weekend for their semi final.
This holds some value for me as this should be +1.5 or +2.5.
Leicester will be very competetive and they have a good chance of winning. I'll be looking for an alternative Leicester plus and a dance partner for this line. Maybe a small Sarries minus.
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- Quill
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- Brent Graham
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Stormers -8.5 v Connacht (-11.5)
Leinster -18.5 v Munster (-13.5) I believe there was some -10.5 early doors
Griffons +18.5 v WP (+22.5)
Pumas -3.5 v Sharks (+5.5)
Griquas +12.5 v Bulls (+11.5)
Cheetahs -3.5 v Lions (-5.5)
The red caps are a gap of 5 or more and orange 3-4 points
The only move I would make at this point is Munster -13.5 as suspect it will push out
I considered making the Sharks favs against the Pumas so I am likely wrong on that one
No ways I am backing Griffons plus
Will be interesting to watch the line in Stormers v Connacht
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- R3V3R3NT_
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Chiefs -17.5 (-19.5) v Reds
Force +5.5 (-0.5) v Drua
Hurricanes -25.5 (-22.5) v Moana
Crusaders -3.5 (-4.5) v Blues
Waratahs -5.5 (-7.5) v Rebels
Brumbies -12.5 (-9.5) v Highlanders
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Chiefs -16.5 v Reds (-19.5)
Force -10.5 v Drua (-0.5)
Hurricanes -22.5 v Moana (-22.5)
Crusaders -5.5 v Blues (-5.5)
Waratahs -7.5 v Rebels (-7.5)
Brumbies -8.5 v Highlanders (-9.5)
Very close on most but a massive difference on Force game. Base don some twitter and WhatsApp chats to other punters and also Hanricks post above I am going to have to rethink
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- Mondo
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Leinster -19.5 @ 2.59
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- Brent Graham
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- hanrick
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Brent Graham wrote: Yip I missed the early Leinster caps but happy to take -14.5 as I expect it to start closer to where I capped it at -18.5 - I can only see he line moving one way
I'll wait for the line to stop moving before placing my bet then.
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- hanrick
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Would have liked a plus of abou 4.5 to 5.5 on Drua, but have taken Drua +0.5 at 19/20.
Seen some sentiment for the Crusaders -4.5 on twitter. Again, this should be a choice game imo. Any plus here is a bonus. Taken Blues +5.5 at 17/20. Blues clearly wasn't into that Moana game and imo already focussed on this game. Not nearly as confident on Blues plus as the top 2, but value imo on Blues plus.
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- Brent Graham
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hanrick wrote:
Brent Graham wrote: Yip I missed the early Leinster caps but happy to take -14.5 as I expect it to start closer to where I capped it at -18.5 - I can only see he line moving one way
I'll wait for the line to stop moving before placing my bet then.
I will do likewise for Force v Drua
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- Brent Graham
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Stormers have oved from -11.5 to -14.5 while Leinster line has stabilized at -14.5 - think of it as a scrum where Leinster got the initial shove but Munster have held them but the 2nd shove is about to come - I still predict it starts -18.5
Very little movement in Super Rugby and likewise the Currie Cup is stable although some money for Sharks and Lions
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- Pablo
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I see all three teams winning at home and maybe past their handicaps
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- hanrick
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hanrick wrote: Taken a big strike on Rebels +7.5 at 17/20. Should be a choice game imo and even then I'd take Rebels to win. That +7.5 is a massive handicap. Also taken Rebels to win at 26/10.
Would have liked a plus of abou 4.5 to 5.5 on Drua, but have taken Drua +0.5 at 19/20.
Seen some sentiment for the Crusaders -4.5 on twitter. Again, this should be a choice game imo. Any plus here is a bonus. Taken Blues +5.5 at 17/20. Blues clearly wasn't into that Moana game and imo already focussed on this game. Not nearly as confident on Blues plus as the top 2, but value imo on Blues plus.
Rebels out to 8.5 and Blues to 6.5. Luckily I don't mind teaching lessons to those who ask for them. Geez, the lack of respect!
Taken more of those two's plusses and then also Waratahs under 33.5 at 17/20. Damon Murphy the ref and a slight chance of rain in Sydney, plus the fact that I fancy a Rebels win.
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- Brent Graham
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- southpaw
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Rebels +8.5 @ 9/10
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- Pablo
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True that Hurricanes rotate but forward pack is strong and backline too, except from Booth. Moana make 15 changes from last week narrow defeat so for me this should be a big home win by more than 30 points.
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Went for a bet builder of Rebels +13.5 X under 68.5 points at 9/10
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- Mondo
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They have picked a ridiculously mobile team that is made for throwing the ball around whilst the Reds have really missed a trick by not picking Lynagh at 10 and the weather looks great for a throwaround!
Chiefs will be disappointed to not score 50
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- Mondo
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Reds under 23.5 & Drua over 25.5 & WP -20/5
@ 4
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- Brent Graham
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Like the Chiefs minus but have settled on Chiefs over 6.5 tries
Force v Drua Preview
Over 58.5
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- sunnyskies
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- sunnyskies
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- sunnyskies
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Pablo wrote: I have to go with Hurricanes -23.5 @1.91 3u
True that Hurricanes rotate but forward pack is strong and backline too, except from Booth. Moana make 15 changes from last week narrow defeat so for me this should be a big home win by more than 30 points.
I'm with you on this. I was surprised they are not resting Ardie Savea and Jordie Barrett for this game. Can't see any other result unless there is bad weather.
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- shark prince
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Also adding Chiefs -12.5 X Brumbies X Leinster at $1.80 (2.5/5 units).
Value on the Drua plus for me, I capped them as 2.5 points favourites. Not a game I think I can pick with confidence either way though. Drua +2.5 (2.5/5 units).
Agree with value being on the Blues. I like either team by under 11.5 points a lot at $1.80 (TAB). Blues won't win by 12+ in Christchurch. This bet just gives a few extra points coverage if the Crusaders score late. (3/5 units)
Far from convinced by the Hurricanes of late, can see Moana scoring against them even if the Hurricanes run up a score. My strategy in these games is to find the biggest plus. Moana +26.5 (2/5 units)
Tahs and Rebels should be a cracking game. While I agree the Reds were trash last week, the Tahs have been quietly very gritty. I capped the Rebels as 2 points favourites, but see an extremely close game. Would be strong on the Rebels plus however I find either team by less than 11.5 points at evens (TAB). Strongest call of the week (4/5 units)
Brumbies have a very strong team, Landers should be fiesty in their last match in Aus where they have no wins. The cap is well set, value is on margin calls imo. Brumbies 1-21 at evens (3/5 units). Would be a 3.5-4 unit play, but Brumbies and Highlanders have been my two bogey teams this year.
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- Brent Graham
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- Brent Graham
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- southpaw
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Chiefs over 6.5 tries @ 6/5
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- Brent Graham
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The line has come in since last nights show but I still like u51.5
Leinster v Munster
Already on -14.5 and adding Leinster over 16.5 half time points
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- Flemenstar
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A Leinster second string would win it imo
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- The Vann
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- Laraxwell
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Still 40 to play though
Difficult to find value in a HT in-play bet.
Chiefs minus 11.5 is tempting but they haven't earned that bet with their first 40. Too many changes in their back 5 and laissez-faire at the breakdown.
Agree that Reds should have more points in them so will join Vann on Reds Overs
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- Pablo
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- Flemenstar
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- Mondo
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To be honest, you would have thought I was born in Aus the way I was screaming for a Reds win at the end - Fuck the Chiefs
D Mac absolutely blown any and all goodwill he had going for him about being AB#10
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- Brent Graham
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- Mondo
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Brent Graham wrote: Couldn't watch the game and only saw the 1st try - never saw that one coming thats for sure - bad start to the weekend
80 minutes of my life I wish I could have back
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- shaft
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"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Quill
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- Mondo
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All first half handicaps for the sevens -
NZ -10.5 & GB - 9.5 & NZ (w) -10.5 @ 6.8
All huge favourites, should cruise out to a big score at HT and then might take their foot off the gas in the second and allow a try or two
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- Laraxwell
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Western Province were 25 zip up
Now 25 - 21 up with 5 mins to go
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- shaft
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"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Mondo
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Mondo wrote: For those with a PokerBet account -
All first half handicaps for the sevens -
NZ -10.5 & GB - 9.5 & NZ (w) -10.5 @ 6.8
All huge favourites, should cruise out to a big score at HT and then might take their foot off the gas in the second and allow a try or two
NZ ladies let me down at the first hurdle - bad call!
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- henryscat
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All the tipping here is for rebels +
Im wondering if actually the waratahs win easily and I should go against the crowd
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- Brent Graham
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- Pablo
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They play in Le Havre instead of La Defence but Racing crowd will be there, home lineup is pretty strong. Toulon with important absences due to next week Challenge Cup Final (Prisa, Etrillard, Isa, Alanuiese, Du Preez, Parisse, Serin, Bigger, Paaiaua, Kolbe, Wainiqolo, Nayacalevu are out) so I expect a big home win. In paper difference between those two teams tomorrow is +20 points for Racing but Top14 is a weird competition so I stick to 2u.
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- Pablo
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ST rotates but the team they field is pretty strong and may get the job done in Perpignan. No Dupont nor Ntamack but lineup is ok and bench is better than USAP one.
For me is 50/50 match so little value on the away side.
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- Pablo
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Pablo wrote: I have to go with Hurricanes -23.5 @1.91 3u
True that Hurricanes rotate but forward pack is strong and backline too, except from Booth. Moana make 15 changes from last week narrow defeat so for me this should be a big home win by more than 30 points.
Easy win Hurricanes
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- Chiefie
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Are we not playing knock ons today?
Nic Berry is a disgrace.
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