Heineken Champions & Challenge Cup Finals, Super Rugby, Currie Cup 19-21 May

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1 year 4 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
It was a real rollercoaster of a punting journey this weekend. I couldn't do a thing right on Friday but clawed my way back to somewhere close to square mainly thanks to the Newsletter Best Bet Lions on the board ( Click here to get our newsletter with Best Bet )

Big disappointments were the Stormers unders which was well beaten and going overs in the Force game instead of backing my initial handicap call and going for the Force

Onto this weekend and we have 2 big finals in Europe as well as Super Rugby and Currie Cup

Heineken Champions Cup - current handicap
Leinster -8.5 v La Rochelle

Challenge Cup - current cap
Glasgow +6.5 v Toulon

Super Rugby - projected caps
Pasifika +30.5 v Crusaders
Reds +7.5 v Blues
Highlanders -8.5 v Rebels
Chiefs -9.5 v Hurricanes
Waratahs -16.5 v Drua
Force +5.5 v Brumbies

Currie Cup - projected handicaps
WP -9.5 v Pumas
Sharks -14.5 v Cheetahs (assume Sharks play some URC players)
Griffons +18.5 v Griquas
Lions -4.5 v Bulls

Have a great week and look forward to your thoughts

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1 year 4 months ago #2 by Brent Graham
Wow I am seriously out on a couple of the Super Rugby caps (orange 3-4 points, red 5 or more)

Pasifika +30.5 v Crusaders (+27.5)
Reds +7.5 v Blues (+11.5)
Highlanders -8.5 v Rebels (-9.5)
Chiefs -9.5 v Hurricanes (-6.5)
Waratahs -16.5 v Drua (-8.5)
Force +5.5 v Brumbies (+13.5)


Thinking it through the -16.5 Waratahs was too big but I think the line might move into double figures
The Force have been good at home, the +5.5 was probably giving them too much credit but mak the +13.5 a good bet

3 units on an early double at WSB - Waratahs -8.5 19/20/Force +13.5 at 19/20 at 28/10

I also like the Chiefs -6.5 but not going to get involved yet

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1 year 4 months ago #3 by Pablo
I go with Glasgow +5.5 @2 2u

Confidence in the scottish side as they finished the season strongly, won't be easy as Toulon rotates last week and have far more experience in this kind of matches but for me is this should be at least a 50/50 match.

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1 year 4 months ago #4 by Laraxwell
I agree, Pablo.
Money already down on Glasgow + handicap and also on the board.
The loss at home to Munster doesn't look so bad now and we have a neutral venue

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1 year 4 months ago #5 by Pablo

Laraxwell wrote: I agree, Pablo.
Money already down on Glasgow + handicap and also on the board.
The loss at home to Munster doesn't look so bad now and we have a neutral venue


I have to add that Toulon, as most of french teams except from Toulouse and La Rochelle, underperforms away from home. Glasgow has a pretty good record away and their mobile pack should be a problem for Toulon's heavy pack.

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1 year 4 months ago #6 by Brent Graham
My Currie Cup handicaps are very different from WSB

WP -9.5 v Pumas (+6.5)
Sharks -14.5 v Cheetahs (+2.5)
Griffons +18.5 v Griquas (+13.5)
Lions -4.5 v Bulls (+4.5)

WP only lost by a point to Pumas away and beat a virtual URC Bulls team - I can't see how they are not narrow favs at least

Sharks game I am assuming URC players start to return but this Sharks team have already beaten the Cheetahs in Bloem

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1 year 4 months ago #7 by Mondo86
Glasgow getting no respect! Fully agree with you guys on this! Glasgow by 1-12 @ 3.34 could be a gelukkie - Could even see this line coming in and being close to a choice game by the weekend

Crusaders vs Moana on Friday - Surely Crusaders rest a few/ plenty? Moana over 19.5 at evens looks good as they should pick a full strength team here after resting some against the Canes. Cap is +25.5 which should come in alot with heavy rain currently predicted - Being played Mt Smart. Striking now!

Cheeky Monday multi -

Moana +27.5 & Over 52.5 Blues vs Reds & Glasgow +6.5 & La Rochelle +7.5

@ 8.1

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1 year 4 months ago #8 by Pablo

Mondo86 wrote: Glasgow getting no respect! Fully agree with you guys on this! Glasgow by 1-12 @ 3.34 could be a gelukkie - Could even see this line coming in and being close to a choice game by the weekend

Crusaders vs Moana on Friday - Surely Crusaders rest a few/ plenty? Moana over 19.5 at evens looks good as they should pick a full strength team here after resting some against the Canes. Cap is +25.5 which should come in alot with heavy rain currently predicted - Being played Mt Smart. Striking now!

Cheeky Monday multi -

Moana +27.5 & Over 52.5 Blues vs Reds & Glasgow +6.5 & La Rochelle +7.5

@ 8.1


Agree on Moana +25.5, they rested heavily against Hurricanes so expect full strength while Crusaders had an arm wrestler against Blues so expect some AB to rest.

Also SR +8.5, I don't think will be an easy match for Leinster specially with Botia ready.

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1 year 4 months ago #9 by wslark1
Cheers for the early SP handicap predictions Brenty, helped me take some early value there.

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1 year 4 months ago #10 by Brad Breath
I've climbed into Moana +25.5 also, line is now on the move

And a couple of beers Moana dnb @ 31

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1 year 4 months ago #11 by Brent Graham
Betting moves

Currie Cup
WP in to -2.5 from +6.5 still less than my -9.5
Sharks -4.5 from +2.5 still less than my -14.5 and may move further on team news
Lions +1.5 from +4.5 still less than my -4.5

Super Rugby
Pasifika +20.5 from +27.5 and moving away from -30.5 with expectations of Crusaders to rest players
Reds +9.5 from +11.5 edging closer to my +7.5
Chiefs -7.5 from -6.5 edging closer to my -9.5
Waratahs -10.5 from -8.5, still some way from my -16.5 but expect it to stabilise at the 10-12 point mark
Force +12.5 from +13.5 still well short of my +5.5

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1 year 4 months ago #12 by Brent Graham
A few big line movements in Super Rugby

Crusaders -11.5 from -26.5
Chiefs out to -12.5 from opening call -6.5
Waratahs continue to edge out now -12.5

Some new blood on tonights THE HANDICAP live at 21h00

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1 year 4 months ago #13 by Cortiss
Would you still take the Sharks -4.5 on offer after the team news Brent?

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1 year 4 months ago #14 by Brent Graham
Hi Cortiss, I haven't had a chance to look at the teams but will try and do so before tonights show

Mondo makes his debut tonight joing Crowe Tips and myself at 21h00

Click here to set a reminder and watch on You Tube


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1 year 4 months ago #15 by Pablo
For the Currie Cup experts, would you take WP dnb at @1.90 ?

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1 year 4 months ago #16 by shaft

Pablo wrote: For the Currie Cup experts, would you take WP dnb at @1.90 ?


Yes. Pumas depth is getting tested. WP are much better equipped to deal with first choice players out because of their good junior structures.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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1 year 4 months ago #17 by Brent Graham
Moana v Crusaders preview

Crusaders -12.5

Reds v Blues preview

Reds over 23.5

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1 year 4 months ago #18 by southpaw
Back after a quiet weekend last week where Brumbies Higlanders game was a rare good Sunday betting result. Itching to get stuck in this weekend, 1st game up -

Saders over 30.5
Saders -7

@ 8/11
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1 year 4 months ago #19 by shaft
Crusader/Crusaders + Blues win @ EVS

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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1 year 4 months ago #20 by Brent Graham
A couple of late changes to the Moana team and I am adding Moana under 25.5 at 10/11

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1 year 4 months ago #21 by Mondo86
Crusaders over 18.5 HT

Moana losing both their locks doesn't bode well

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1 year 4 months ago #22 by shark prince
Poor week last weekend, wiped out a lot of the big profits from a few weeks ago!

Margin punts are the value plays this week imo. With a lot of caps around the 10 mark, 1-21 margin plays at evens on TAB and Topsport are elite if you can get onto them. Otherwise, 1-12/13+ and 1-10s also have a lot of value.

Crusaders 1-21 2.5 units. Missed the early value on the plus, would take the minus if I didn't have 1-21 available. Crusaders should win this in the 11-20 bracket after Moana stick around for a while.

Similar prediction in the Blues game, 1-21 3 units. Lots of changes for the Blues but they need a win here badly, no chance this Reds team can beat NZ teams back to back. Would be on Blues minus if not for the 1-21 market.

Chiefs 1-21 3.5 units. Expect them to bounce back strong, especially with the Canes missing a few key players. Doubt it'll be a crazy blowout though, Canes should stay in touch for periods of the game. Would be on an 11-20 call without the 1-21 market.

Landers 1-21 2.5 units. No Gordon is massive, Highlanders targeting a win against the Rebels. Massive swing game vs the Rebels at home. Should put them away. Would also be on the minus.

Brumbies 1-21 2 units. Don't quite see the support for Force, but it being so widespread brings this to a 2 unit play. I think the Brumbies win comfortably, they are well coached and will chase a bonus point victory to lock in a top 2 finish. The Force will be competitive so doubt it'll be a blow out. Would be on the minus otherwise

Great show all, and happy punting
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1 year 4 months ago #23 by shark prince
Crusaders X Chiefs X Waratahs at evens 3 units.

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1 year 4 months ago #24 by Quill
HT Crusaders -5.5 @1.92

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1 year 4 months ago #25 by Chiefie

Quill wrote: HT Crusaders -5.5 @1.92

Is Fergus Burke wearing suede crocs? His kicking for touch is village. Making about 15m off every penalty kick for touch.

Joke city.

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1 year 4 months ago #26 by Cortiss
I’m a big bet on Fiji -7 v Ireland in the 7s. No Conroy or Kennedy for Irish who have an inexperienced squad selected. I think they’ll get crushed. Will be taking the -hcaps as high as I can get
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1 year 4 months ago #27 by Brent Graham
The 1st of the European Finals

Glasgow v Toulon Preview

Toulon -5.5

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1 year 4 months ago - 1 year 4 months ago #28 by Mondo86
Great shout Cortiss - Fiji -8.5 looks the goods there!

Fiji -8.5 & Highlanders win & Waratahs win @ 2.8

Cheeky Saturday multi to build some funds up for the Heineken final - Either team by 7 @ 2.3 doesn't seem too bad :whistle:
Last edit: 1 year 4 months ago by Mondo86.

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1 year 4 months ago #29 by Brent Graham

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1 year 4 months ago #30 by Cortiss
Points line has dropped to 55.5 in Blues Reds, conditions look good and some new combos which will lack cohesion. Overs for days mate

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1 year 4 months ago #31 by Cortiss
Bulls line up for Currie Cup just out. No KLA or Moodie but very strong bar that. Most the URC lads in. Happy to take the low minus

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1 year 4 months ago #32 by Brent Graham
Highlanders v Rebels Preview

Highlanders -9.5

Chiefs v Hurricanes Preview

Chiefs -11.5 at 17/20

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1 year 4 months ago #33 by Chiefie
Had under 67.5 points in the blues v reds game.

2 tries in final 90 seconds to kill my accumulator.

Good times.

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1 year 4 months ago #34 by Brent Graham
Strong Friday start for once

Waratahs v Drua preview

Tahs over 35.5

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1 year 4 months ago #35 by Pablo
I go against the general feeling in both European finals:

Glasgow +6.5 @1.80 and SR +10 ha @1.70 both for 2u.
Glasgow in really fine form while SR will be up for this, I think won't be as easy for Leinster as odds show.

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1 year 4 months ago #36 by Brent Graham
Force v Brumbies Preview

Keeping the faith, Force on the board 2/1

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1 year 4 months ago #37 by shark prince
Waratahs by 1-21 2.5 units. Would also be a Tahs pts punter.

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1 year 4 months ago - 1 year 4 months ago #38 by Laraxwell
25mins into this ERC Challenge cup final and seems I under estimated Glasgow's ability to choke every facet of their game.
Toulon look a lovely side on paper but let's not forget they lie 8th in the T14. They are not on the same level of Toulouse/ La Rochelle
Glasgow arse needs major kicking at HT but think it's too late
Last edit: 1 year 4 months ago by Laraxwell.

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1 year 4 months ago #39 by Flemenstar
Yep me too. And many others on this forum. They are absolutely crap

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1 year 4 months ago #40 by Flemenstar
Glasgow are absolutely woeful

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1 year 4 months ago #41 by Chiefie

Flemenstar wrote: Yep me too. And many others on this forum. They are absolutely crap

Had over 22.5 1st half points, some Glasgow numpty just grubbered it through after the half time buzzer had gone, like, how do you not take the tackle and set up another phase.

Joke.

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1 year 4 months ago #42 by Flemenstar
Pretty ridiculous. I give up mate - too hard anymore

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1 year 4 months ago #43 by Mondo86
Glasgow absolutely diabolical -

Completely overawed by the situation and manhandled like kids -

Shocking read by me here

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1 year 4 months ago #44 by Chiefie

Mondo86 wrote: Glasgow absolutely diabolical -

Completely overawed by the situation and manhandled like kids -

Shocking read by me here


New game for me now, watching every time Ali Price screams and cheers for any penalty or tackle that Glasgow make. Being 24-0 down won’t stop him.

The dickhead.

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1 year 4 months ago #45 by Pablo

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1 year 4 months ago #46 by Laraxwell
Tough evening but kudos to Toulon punters.

Fiji 7's v Ire 7's Win and handicap double with Aus Women v Fiji Women to get me back ahead

Good luck all!

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1 year 4 months ago #47 by Brent Graham
Highlander over 5.5 tries 6/5

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1 year 4 months ago #48 by southpaw
Highlanders over 5.5 tries @ 6/5
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1 year 4 months ago #49 by southpaw

Brent Graham wrote: Highlander over 5.5 tries 6/5


Wow posted and seen you’d just posted exact same. Good omen I hope!
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1 year 4 months ago #50 by Brent Graham
Hoping its a case of "great minds think alike" and not "fools never differ" South :lol:

Must say this Highlanders side are so far behind the other NZ frnachises

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