URC Final, Gallagher Prem Final, Super Rugby, Currie Cup 26-28 May

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1 year 4 months ago - 1 year 4 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
After a Friday when I could do nothing wrong I came back down to earth on Saturday with only the Force outright really standing out as a highlight.

The big knock was on the Newsletter Best Bet Leinster -8.5 although thankfully I lessoned this by taking some -4.5 HT - at 17-0 I was banking the win but something about the way La Rochelle scored their 1st try had me worried and I could only sit back and watch as they dominated

Overall a square weekend for me and lets hope we can make some profits this week where the URC final is the highlight

URC Final Current Handicap

Stormers -5.5 v Munster

There is also the Premiership final

Saracens -3.5 v Sale

Here are my Super Rugby projected caps for the penultimate weekend of regular season action

Highlanders -4.5 v Reds - Highlanders can keep playoff hopes alive with a win, Reds can book their last 8 with a win
Rebels -7.5 v Force - Rebels look gone, Force in 8th and a win may be enough to see them into top 8
Drua -14.5 v Pasifika
Crusaders -22.5 v Waratahs (Tahs likely to rest players)
Blues -7.5 v Hurricanes
Brumbies -5.5 v Chiefs (assuming Chiefs rest players as guaranteed top spot) Edit: As pointed out by The Admiral below top spot is not 100% secure and his handicap of Brumbies +8 is more likely should it be strength v strength)

Here are my Currie Cup projected caps

Griffons +25.5 v Sharks
WP +9.5 v Lions
Cheetahs -13.5 v Griquas
Pumas +13.5 v Bulls

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Have a good one

BG

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Last edit: 1 year 4 months ago by Brent Graham. Reason: Addition

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1 year 4 months ago #2 by TheAdmiral
New to the forum but thought I’d share my Super Rugby caps.

Landers reds -9
Rebels force -8 (assuming Gordon is back)
Drua moana -17
Saders tahs -16
Blues canes -5
Brumbies chiefs +8 (assuming chiefs still put out a good team as first place isn’t 100% secured yet)

Good luck all!

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1 year 4 months ago #3 by Brent Graham
Thanks TheAdmiral, good point on Chiefs not being guaranteed top spot I misread that and have made a note in my original post)

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1 year 4 months ago #4 by Brent Graham
WSB out with opening caps on Super Rugby (in brackets and based on home team)

Highlanders -4.5 v Reds (-5.5)
Rebels -7.5 v Force (-6.5)
Drua -14.5 v Pasifika (-13.5)
Crusaders -22.5 v Waratahs (-22.5)
Blues -7.5 v Hurricanes (-5.5)
Brumbies -5.5 v Chiefs (+5.5)

All very close other than Brumbies game but as pointed out my logic in setting that cap was flawed so not rushing in

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1 year 4 months ago #5 by Brent Graham
A few differences in the Currie Cup but nothing to get excited about

Griffons +25.5 v Sharks (+25.5)
WP +9.5 v Lions (+5.5)
Cheetahs -13.5 v Griquas (-10.5)
Pumas +13.5 v Bulls (+8.5)

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1 year 4 months ago #6 by shaft
Cheetahs vs Griekwas should be a 7 point cap at most. I think Hawies is losing his squad and getting the boot sooner rather than later.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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1 year 4 months ago #7 by Brent Graham
Money coming for Brumbies now +3.5 from +5.5 (maybe my original handicap will be close after all) and also Crusaders -25.5 from -22.5

Doesn't appear to be alot of movement in the Currie Cup

Points line 49.5 in Cape Town where the weather forecast appears to be improving

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1 year 4 months ago #8 by Kirky
After scouring twitter all week, I'm super confused (just for a change :lol: ): How can I be the only one in the world, other than Brad Thorne, who sees the Reds rolling the Highlanders by 10 this week ? :dry: :unsure:

At least a few others agree with my posit on the Brumbies beating the Chiefs :whistle:
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1 year 4 months ago #9 by Mondo86
Cheeky Friday -

Reds over 24.5 & RebelsVSForce over 54.5

@ 2.3
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1 year 4 months ago #10 by Pablo
I agree with you Kirky, I went Reds +7 ha @1.74 but for 1u for the moment, maybe I'll add some more later.

Crusaders -23.5 @1.91 2u as they come fresh from rotation while Waratahs lose Hooper, Foketi and Perese. Big blows in my opinion so I expect the kiwis to win properly tomorrow.
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1 year 4 months ago #11 by Cortiss
I’m taking 2 units on Landers Reds under 61.5 at even money. Expecting a very tight battle and it could be a kick fest with the two back lines selected, certainly not much creativity. Don’t expect many 3s to be turned down which should slow the game down

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1 year 4 months ago #12 by Brent Graham
Looking forward to The Handicap live at 21h00 where I am joined by The Understaker and Harry Jones

click here to set a reminder and subscribe on You Tube


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1 year 4 months ago #13 by kompos

Brent Graham wrote: Money coming for Brumbies now +3.5 from +5.5 (maybe my original handicap will be close after all)


I'm prepared to bet you a coffee that neither +5.5 or your original +8 will be within 6 points of the actual result

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1 year 4 months ago #14 by coil
Hiya lads ,

Tomorrows first game is a potential banana peel with both sides capable but equally awful at times .

At first glance I fancied the Highlanders but at plus 6.5 Reds and a decent side named once again I'm hoping the Reds can draw from that excellent away win at the Chiefs once again.

One of my better bets will be the Farce plus 7.5 away to the Rebels while unders will also see a fair chunk of my cash at 60.5 .

Finally tomorrow afternoon I'm all over WP plus 5.5 at home to the Lions .
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1 year 4 months ago #15 by Brent Graham
LOL Kompos where do you stay?

Coil I agree it looks a tough game - also leaning Reds and taking the aggressive board line and keeping stakes down

Highlanders v Reds betting preview

Reds win at 2/1

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1 year 4 months ago #16 by Pablo
Maybe I'm wrong but I like WP +6 ha @1.862 on Saturday

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1 year 4 months ago #17 by kompos

Brent Graham wrote: LOL Kompos where do you stay?


probably not more than 7 km away from you - for some reason I think you stay in Randpark Ridge area
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1 year 4 months ago #18 by Brent Graham
100% Kompos - the coffee bet is on

Rebels v Force preview

Aussie derbies have been higher scoring this season but not many have reached 62 points and the usually dormant "unders" gene in me (far more prevalent in Coil and Hanrick) has been activated

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1 year 4 months ago #19 by southpaw
Back again like a lemon for the Highlanders after last weeks disappointing display.

Hoping they can finally click.

Highlanders over 4.5 tries @ 5/6

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1 year 4 months ago #20 by Brent Graham
Holding back the pick in Drua v Pasifika as am looking for a tries line rather than points overs - will post tonight

Crusaders v Waratahs Preview

Waratahs over 16.5 at 15/20

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1 year 4 months ago #21 by Brent Graham
Blue v Hurricanes preview

Canes +6.5

Brumbies v Chiefs Preview

Either team by 7 or less

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1 year 4 months ago - 1 year 4 months ago #22 by Bookie Basher
Like South, I'm hoping Highlanders can click.

Steering clear of main handicap market lines and opted for Highlanders most tries at 7/10 with Betway
Last edit: 1 year 4 months ago by Bookie Basher.
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1 year 4 months ago #23 by hanrick
Reds +5.5 at 19/20 for me and then a double of under 61.5 points in Landers game onto under 60.5 in Rebels game at 24/10. Also Force under 26.5 points at 17/20

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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1 year 4 months ago #24 by Kirky

Kirky wrote: After scouring twitter all week, I'm super confused (just for a change :lol: ): How can I be the only one in the world, other than Brad Thorne, who sees the Reds rolling the Highlanders by 10 this week ? :dry: :unsure:

At least a few others agree with my posit on the Brumbies beating the Chiefs :whistle:

Urrggghh, vomit. :sick:
My Friday jinx continues, and the bookies are always right. :pinch:

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1 year 4 months ago #25 by Mondo86
Sharks over 43.5 at evens looks like my punt of the day - All of my Rebels winnings going this way!

Sharks should clear 50 here with a good team selected, the Griffins with a few injuries and a banging day (weather wise) in Welkom -

Sharks -39.5 @ 4.3 can have some beer money also

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1 year 4 months ago #26 by Jameson
Madness - the unders looked a dead cert in the Rebels game on the hour then crazy rugby inc 2 interception's. Not even the skin on Brents teeth could save us ......

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1 year 4 months ago #27 by shaft
Ruan Pienaar at flyhalf. All over Griekwas +10.5

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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1 year 4 months ago #28 by TheAdmiral
Some performance by the rebels there! Really hope they make the playoffs they’re a great team to watch, play with real spirit.

Couple bets left for the weekend

Waratahs +23.5
Blues 1-12
Double of Drua under 44.5 and saders under 46.5
Either team by less than 7 in the urc final (courtesy of Brent’s call on the show)

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1 year 4 months ago #29 by Brent Graham
I cannot believe unders got screwed in Rebels game

Sharks over 43.5 to get out of it

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1 year 4 months ago - 1 year 4 months ago #30 by Laraxwell
Sharks O 43.5pts @6/5 at Boylesports

Edit: Apologies O 46.5pts @ 6/5
Last edit: 1 year 4 months ago by Laraxwell. Reason: Error

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1 year 4 months ago #31 by southpaw
Sharks over 6.5 tries @ 10/11

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1 year 4 months ago #32 by Chiefie

southpaw wrote: Sharks over 6.5 tries @ 10/11


Sharks 0 points after 30mins.

Eish... Big Eish.

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1 year 4 months ago #33 by Mondo86
Lol is all I can say here.

Useless tactics, useless players - Geez the Sharks know how to absolutely break your heart.

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1 year 4 months ago #34 by Chiefie

Mondo86 wrote: Lol is all I can say here.

Useless tactics, useless players - Geez the Sharks know how to absolutely break your heart.


Don't lose hope. I think the sharks will score 2 x quick tries in the first 10mins, and then ease away.

I'm not betting for a while, but I can tell you that Fakatava try this morning in the 79th minute and the rebels demolition would have killed me, as would have favoured the unders.

Betting is hard.

That's what she said.

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1 year 4 months ago #35 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Mondo86 wrote: Lol is all I can say here.

Useless tactics, useless players - Geez the Sharks know how to absolutely break your heart.


Don't lose hope. I think the sharks will score 2 x quick tries in the first 10mins, and then ease away.

I'm not betting for a while, but I can tell you that Fakatava try this morning in the 79th minute and the rebels demolition would have killed me, as would have favoured the unders.

Betting is hard.

That's what she said.


1 try in 2 mins. Many more to come.

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1 year 4 months ago #36 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Mondo86 wrote: Lol is all I can say here.

Useless tactics, useless players - Geez the Sharks know how to absolutely break your heart.


Don't lose hope. I think the sharks will score 2 x quick tries in the first 10mins, and then ease away.

I'm not betting for a while, but I can tell you that Fakatava try this morning in the 79th minute and the rebels demolition would have killed me, as would have favoured the unders.

Betting is hard.

That's what she said.


1 try in 2 mins. Many more to come.


2 tries in 5 mins.

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1 year 4 months ago - 1 year 4 months ago #37 by hanrick
Terrible Sharks performance. Very lucky to get the minus there.

WP +7.5 at 0.93/1, Lions under 31.5 points at 19/20 and total points under 56.5 at 8/10

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
Last edit: 1 year 4 months ago by hanrick.

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1 year 4 months ago #38 by Chiefie

hanrick wrote: Terrible Sharks performance. Very lucky to get the minus there.

WP +7.5 at 0.93/1, Lions under 31.5 points at 19/20 and total points under 56.5 at 8/10


1st lions try in 45 seconds. Pray for load shedding.

An early try normally indicates a low scoring affair in my experience, so lets see!

Fingers crossed for you Hanrick.

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1 year 4 months ago #39 by hanrick

Chiefie wrote:

hanrick wrote: Terrible Sharks performance. Very lucky to get the minus there.

WP +7.5 at 0.93/1, Lions under 31.5 points at 19/20 and total points under 56.5 at 8/10


1st lions try in 45 seconds. Pray for load shedding.

An early try normally indicates a low scoring affair in my experience, so lets see!

Fingers crossed for you Hanrick.


I like an early try when on unders

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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1 year 4 months ago #40 by kompos
@ Brent
- just watched last night's show and heard you had electricity maintenance from 8 to 4 - had the same so we are in the same area

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1 year 4 months ago #41 by Jameson
Black Friday ......

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1 year 4 months ago #42 by Brent Graham
Black Friday a good way to describe it - just never recovered from that last minute Reds loss

Drua v Moana preview

Over 9.5 tries at 1/1

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1 year 4 months ago #43 by southpaw
Saders over 5.5 tries @ evens

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1 year 4 months ago #44 by Brent Graham

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1 year 4 months ago #45 by Brent Graham
Added over 7.5 tries 8/11 Crusaders game

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1 year 4 months ago #46 by Chiefie

Brent Graham wrote: Added over 7.5 tries 8/11 Crusaders game

Good lord the tahs are trash. Looks like they’ve just met in the car park for the first time.

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1 year 4 months ago #47 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: Added over 7.5 tries 8/11 Crusaders game

Good lord the tahs are trash. Looks like they’ve just met in the car park for the first time.

Add the crusaders to that list. Bombing tries here.

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1 year 4 months ago #48 by Jameson
I'd like to know why I only put cash on GFTG tips that lose? Currently on Hurricanes +6 and they are getting thrashed.

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1 year 4 months ago #49 by The Vann
In-play
Canes over 20.5 @ 17/20 Took time to find. This at Bet coza

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1 year 4 months ago #50 by Jameson
Not sure how the canes are still in this - they have no lineout and no goal kicker ....

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