Super Rugby week, Currie Cup week 13 + other Rugby 2-4 June

DONT BE KAK, BE LEKKER!!!!!

I go with Blues -14.5 @1.91 2u

For me they are far better team than Highlanders and they should win easily.

Waratahs -6.5 HT

They blow Moana away this weekend

Mondo86 wrote: Waratahs -6.5 HT

They blow Moana away this weekend

Waratahs certain to end 6th on the log, no matter what happens. Can't go up or down. So I expect them to rest players. No saying they won't beat the handicap, but certainly something to consider.

Blues minus for me the best on the early betting. If they get 5 points out of the game they are level on log points with the Crusaders (with the Crusaders playing the next day), with the the same amount of wins (determining factor 1 if tied on log points). Determining factor 2 when tied on log points and amount of wins is points difference. At this stage the Crusaders' points difference is 33 better than the Blues. So I'm sure they'll go for the bonuspoint and points difference and will then hope the Canes can do them a favour.

Also Drua @ 2

Permutations for this weekend and how I see the motivations -

BluesVSHighlanders - Blues going for 2 on the log so will take this seriously af. Highlanders need the win to make the playoffs. NB game for both teams but Highlanders seem rocked by injuries and Barrett is back for Blues. Plummer also seems to have been finally dusted!

DruaVSReds - The winner qualifies here. I think the Drua will be a bit more desperate but NB for both. Reds are tough but limited. Drua at home are tricky.

BrumbiesVSRebels - A bonus point for Brumbies makes it mathematically possible for a top 2 finish but highly unlikely. A Rebels win could see them sneak in. Brumbies were diabolical against the Chiefs which could mean a big bounce back but the Rebels train with Gordon conducting has been chugging along nicely all season.

CanesVSSaders - No additional motivation for Saders - They can't overtake the Chiefs at the top. A win for the Canes could see them overtake the Brumbies for a home playoff. Should be a nail biter if the Canes can learn to kick for poles and throw into the lineout.

WaratahsVSMoana - Waratahs already safe in playoffs - Cant go up the log regardless of result. Moana still searching for the first win. Waratahs last home game and might be last game for Hooper. Jorgo out for the season.

ForceVSChiefs - A win for the Force sees them make the playoffs. The Chiefs already have top of the log secured. A losing bonus point (and some miracles) could see the Force make the playoffs. Force at home are a different prospect and if they go full strength with the Chiefs resting plenty (not sure about this, seen on Twitter some big guns made the trip) this could be tight.

If someone has this line Perpignan -6.5 @1.90 is for 2u.

Difference between Top14 and Pro D2 is very big so Usap should run easily in Grenoble. Last year the thumped MDM 16-41 in the accesion match

Already decided Chiefs -4 will be my biggest bet this weekend, would definitely get involved in some -5 if you haven’t already. Slightly favouring Rebels +13.5 (although the rebels Twitter account doesn’t want us talking about that). Still torn in Drua Reds could go either way. Leaning towards a Crusaders 1-12, that market always a favourite if mine. Surprised to see that Landers cap now sitting at +17.5, Papali still suspended and Barrett may not start or be 100% fit, even taking Sam Gilbert’s injury into account think that the plus is the play there.

Have fired Rebels over 23.5 points at 17/20 and also a solid bet on Rebels +12.5 at 9/10.

Rebels with a lot of momentum at the moment and like the team they have picked. Brumbies team look iffy. Lolesio not starting and not their best starting frontrow. Rest of the pack also mix and match. Rebels played last Friday and Brumbies Saturday so Rebels had an extra day's rest aswell.

Also taken under 61.5 points at 17/20 in Drua vs Reds game. Dangerous going unders in Drua games, but there is a lot of rain predicted for Suva. Also think the Reds will try and control the speed of the game. Preference for Reds to win the game at 8/10 aswell.

Rebels line is shifting - at 24.5 now and still great! 3 tries, 2 conversions and 2 penalties Ideally in the first half!

Cheeky Friday -

BrumbiesVsRebels over 53.5 & Bulls over 49.5 & GriquasVsWP over 50.5

@ 3.84

For the boys -

Blues over 35.5 & Rebels +12.5 @ 2.87
Both teams finish the regular season with a flourish

To note -

The Drua line is now sitting at 56!!! I think for me the best here is to pick your favourite on 1-12 with Drua @ 3 & Reds @ 2.8

Friday best bet - Bulls over 49.5 - They go hard at this for revenge under a clear sky at Loftus and this should see plenty of points. This burns me to type as a WP fan. Also, Bulls -13.5 HT is tasty!!!

Just a note on the 1-12 market.

In the games between the “Big 5” this year (Chiefs, Saders, Canes, Blues and Brumbies) where both teams put out full strength XVs the team that closed favourite won by 1-12 8 out of 12 times. This is despite the fact that you can usually get a price if 2.5-2.75 for these bets. Maybe something to consider as we head into the playoffs.

In contrast the “any other result” market in a tribet (meaning either team to win by less than 7 or a draw), which has a similar price of around 2.6, has a record of 4 wins and 8 losses in these games.

Obviously would have to get a bigger sample size to really see if this works long-term, but certainly something to consider.

Iffy Bulls team selected - confidence levels in this bet much lower! They can still maybe do it but Chris Smith at flyhalf doesn’t instill me with a world of confidence.

Brent Graham wrote: Pir New Zealamd correspondent R3V3R3NT reporting on Twitter that itvis raining hard in Auckland so upping under 60.5 to a 6 unit play

Clearing now looking at the radar:

www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain/radar...ge=300&tab=real-time

WP/WP @ 19/20

Shock horror - a winning start to the weekend!

Normally I'm an overs bloke and would hate this - but no score in 30 mins here is pure bliss!

Have taken Rebels first to 10 points @6/4. Brumbies starting very slow in last few and hoping Rebels try and build scoreboard early. Also on Rebels + and overs

Brent Graham wrote: Agree nice to have a Friday morning winner

Rebels over 25.5 at a shade over 8/10

Considered over 3.5 tries at 1/1 but reckon they may take points early with focus on the W

and now back to normal service with a loss on overs. Took over 54 in live play and its always struggled. Lost count of the number of lost Brum opportunities .....

Thats the second time 2 hooker injuries cost me big in rebel games. But even before that they came out resigned to defeat.

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: Thats the second time 2 hooker injuries cost me big in rebel games. But even before that they came out resigned to defeat.

Yeah, deja vu from the Blues game, but not going to use that as an excuse for my bet. Rebels not up to it.

Cool, now to climb out of a big hole I have dug myself in.

Away on holiday so no bets today, but lined up one tomorrow that I really like -

Chiefs over 30.5 @ 10/11

Force average 35 pts conceded and leaked 50 last week. Home form is strong but Chiefs I feel will be allowed to play with freedom despite many changes.

If the Bulls game is abandoned, it will be a get out of jail for me!

I'm on Bulls Over 3.5 First Half tries @4/5
4-5 mins to go and Bulls have 3 scored
Thought bet was a shoe-in after 3rd try but Griffons are niggly side staying in the game
Could be get out of jail for me too, Jameson!

Knowing my luck it will restart at 2am and Bulls knock on over the tryline at 41.00 .......

Well, I'm glad I skipped the Bulls game.

Worst Friday ever for me, didn't want to be to involved in the Blues game so started with a Highlanders under 3.5 tries/ Rebels +14.5 Double. Got to halftime thought the Blues looked good to crack the Landers and backed them on -15.5 and over 34.5. Only to watch the Blues camp in the Landers 22 for 30mins and no reward. I backed the Rebels over 24.5 and on +10.5 only to watch them roll out their worst performance of the season. So I thought hey little Currie Cup action and we back. Backed WP -5.5 what I thought was a nice line fell asleep 25mins in and woke up to a delayed Bulls game and another loss.

On to Saturday boys

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: Well, I'm glad I skipped the Bulls game.

Worst Friday ever for me, didn't want to be to involved in the Blues game so started with a Highlanders under 3.5 tries/ Rebels +14.5 Double. Got to halftime thought the Blues looked good to crack the Landers and backed them on -15.5 and over 34.5. Only to watch the Blues camp in the Landers 22 for 30mins and no reward. I backed the Rebels over 24.5 and on +10.5 only to watch them roll out their worst performance of the season. So I thought hey little Currie Cup action and we back. Backed WP -5.5 what I thought was a nice line fell asleep 25mins in and woke up to a delayed Bulls game and another loss.

On to Saturday boys

Saturday isnt starting well either! Reds -2 looking dodgy on 50 mins .......

Reds 'lucky' to be only 34 - 17 down on 70mins......

As an experiment, next weekend, I'm going to bet the opposite to what the GFTG recommendations are - it cant be any worse?!

Brent Graham wrote: Its been a bad weekend thats for sure


With Canes game a dead rubber there could be points but confidence is down and I will not get further involved

Will finish the Tahs preview now (was a late night) and hopefully begin the fight back

I'm thinking that by its very nature, rugby has too many variables to predict outcomes with much accuracy. May as well go for whatever the handicap is and flip a coin to select the winner!

Moana +15.5 v Tahs here. Tahs rostering a few bodies and have a few young guns who will struggle with Moana’s madness. Kept Reds and Rebels under this line in last two games against Aussies. Impressed with them against drua last week in the Royal rumble. Will nibble on a win to @9/2…

Brent Graham wrote:

Jameson wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: Its been a bad weekend thats for sure


With Canes game a dead rubber there could be points but confidence is down and I will not get further involved

Will finish the Tahs preview now (was a late night) and hopefully begin the fight back

I'm thinking that by its very nature, rugby has too many variables to predict outcomes with much accuracy. May as well go for whatever the handicap is and flip a coin to select the winner!

I disagree, there is a reason why rugby punters get limited by the books, it is possible to gain an edge - as a punter you go through good and bad runs and as long as the good runs outweigh the bad all is good

The bookies are certainly not limiting me lol

Cortiss wrote: Moana +15.5 v Tahs here. Tahs rostering a few bodies and have a few young guns who will struggle with Moana’s madness. Kept Reds and Rebels under this line in last two games against Aussies. Impressed with them against drua last week in the Royal rumble. Will nibble on a win to @9/2…

Great end to a poor round… (Ben Donaldson is sh!t)

Chiefs -2.5 now, way too low and disrespectful to the leaders regardless of the changes. Still more than enough quality to blow this bang average Force side away. Punting on -8.5 @2/1 too.

Have a 4 leg acca ending on Chiefs win

Separately, agree with South and have followed on Chiefs over 30.5, @ 1.83

Hi All, any points/tries either team or match in the currie cup games today?

Having a terrible weekend also , main bet was Waratahs at 7/10 outright at HT against the Samoa dudes , ridiculous performance .

Not much left now , the Farce back to normal and even with a big plus at HT I just can't back them .

I've put the baby on the Pumas later on at plus 1.5 .

After that my reserves are on the unders in Durban at 57.5

Sad that big Mike Hooper had to go out on a loss to Moana. That was weak.