Wimbledon 2023

Qualifying

Duckworth/Daniel/Seyboth Wild @ 19/10

Eastbourne

Etcheverry v Wolf

Wolf's game does not translate well to grass. Etcheverry has not been on grass yet this year but he he looked like he could play on the surface last year. He is, however, a much better player this year and it should show on grass too.
Win
Etcheverry @ 21/20

ATP Mallorca

Thompson vs Gasquet

Both players are very good on grass.

Thompson is in great form and he played the final at Hertogenbosch one week ago.

He has improved his serve and if we add his grit and determination during play, he should win this match.

These two players met four years ago on the grass at Hertogenbosch in semifinals, and Thompson beat Gasquet 2-0, a Gasquet who was probably more agile than now, close to retirement.

Bet: Thompson @1.62

Mallorca

Harris + Hanfmann @2.16

Nice calls yesterday Quill. Made my longer odds pick so moderately happy.

Eastbourne
I think the three underdogs - Ymer/Galan/Zhang - all have a chance today. I'm going Galan as Cressy has lost his last ten matches. Throwing in MacDonald for the odds

Galan + MacDonald @ 23/10

Will probably look at Zhang games later

Mallorca
For an interest

Kubler + Rinderknech + Purcell @ 7/4

I took Rinderknech too in a triple with Moutet and Purcell.

I also took this double (ATP Mallorca):

Moutet + Purcell @2.25

The Vann wrote: Nice calls yesterday Quill. Made my longer odds pick so moderately happy.

Eastbourne
I think the three underdogs - Ymer/Galan/Zhang - all have a chance today. I'm going Galan as Cressy has lost his last ten matches.

Sometimes I wonder if bookies are psychic. Thought the underdogs had a shot today so I pick the only dog that loses

Very annoying day yesterday but we go again

Wimbledon Qualifying

Win
Daniel + Duckworth @ 14/10

WTA Eastbourne

Pegula vs Osorio

Osorio is a clay courter.

Bet: Pegula 2-0 @2.00

Wimbledon Qualifying

Thought Pouille was very lucky to get through on Monday. Just not good on grass. Young Zeppieri has every chance here to win a second match on grass. Throwing in Kudla for the odds

Zeppieri + Kudla @ 17/10

ATP Mallorca

Eubanks vs Shelton
Tsitsipas vs Hanfmann

Both Eubanks and Shelton have had a good season so far.
Shelton reached the quarter finals at the Australian Open and Eubanks got into the top 100.

Still, Shelton seems to be the better all round player and he should be able to beat Eubanks for the third time in their careers (Shelton leads 2-0 H2H).

Tsitsipas played well on clay, but as it was somewhat expected, the situation changed on grass.
Hanfmann plays well on clay too, but he has two wins on grass against some poorer players on this surface.

Even if it wouldn't be too surprising for Hanfmann to beat Tsitsipas, I think the Greek player will be motivated enough to win this match.

Tsitsipas needs matches on grass under his belt in view of his preparations for Wimbledon, and moreover, he is the defending champion here, in Mallorca.

Bet: Shelton + Tsitsipas @2.03

Bad day at the office.

One last bet on my way home from work:

Paul + Tsitsipas + Thompson @2.00

Eastbourne - J.J. Wolf v Tommy Paul
Mallorca - Yannick Hanfmann v Feliciano Lopez

Success on grass is nothing new for Paul, who made a run to the Wimbledon fourth round last year.

Wolf had never played a professional match on grass prior to last week at Queen’s Club, where he qualified for the main draw before falling to Ben Shelton. At this point in time Paul has more experience on the green stuff and is the better all-around player, so he should advance.

Lopez... well how much more can he win!?

Bet: Paul + Hanfmann @2.17

Mannarino vs Eubanks

Mannarino is very good on grass.

One of his two ATP titles (‘s-Hertogenbosch in 2019) has come on the lawn and three of his nine runner-up performances have done the same.

Since this is Mannarino’s favorite time of year, he cannot let any opportunities on grass go to waste. So far in 2023, he reached the quarterfinals in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and at Queen’s Club.

These two players met once, earlier this season in round four of the Miami Open, where Eubanks won in two tie-breakers.

With Mannarino playing on his favorite surface, I expect he'll take revenge. Eubanks has to serve extremely well, and even then this a difficult matchup for him on grass. Mannarino will likely keep his shots low to frustrate a tall opponent (Eubanks is over 2m tall).

Barrere vs Paul

I rate Paul as the better player between these two on grass.

Bet 1: Mannarino @1.66
Bet 2: Mannarino + Paul @2.40

I had a look at the four quarters of the draw with a view of picking some players that could at least reach the fourth round to win their respective quarter and cash out in the third or fourth round, if it's a good cash out.

To win their respective quarter (will cash out after the third or fourth round).
Tiafoe @12.00
Murray @8.00
Fritz @5.50
Rublev @15.00

I personally was rating Fritz quite high up to Miami, but since then his Eason has been only average. Of course clay has never been his best surface, but his recent results on grass have been poor. Of course she could have a good run at Wimb with his a big serve, but I wouldn’t take him at such short odds. I have him going out quite early, tbh. He’s got an easy 2nd round, but 1st and 3rd could be well tricky.
GL anyways

Laokai wrote: I personally was rating Fritz quite high up to Miami, but since then his Eason has been only average. Of course clay has never been his best surface, but his recent results on grass have been poor. Of course she could have a good run at Wimb with his a big serve, but I wouldn’t take him at such short odds. I have him going out quite early, tbh. He’s got an easy 2nd round, but 1st and 3rd could be well tricky.
GL anyways

He got to the quarter-finals last year and I took him to win his quarter.
My intention, however, is to cash out once he reaches round three or four, I'm not going to wait for him to win his quarter.

My humble thoughts for Wimbledon Men:

5*= Djoko (23 GS, possible goat, easy draw, great grass abilities). It’s really hard to see someone else bringing home the title, kinda Nadal at RG vibe here. A class of his own.

3,5*= Alcaraz. His track record is stellar for his young age, and margin of improvement is huge. Of course the sample is super small, but he’s in a class of his own (albeit a distance off ND). Downside is that he’s got a super tough draw and he won’t have a huge margin of error if he wants to make the final.

2.5*= Tiafoe, Korda

2*= Murray

1.5*= Shelton, Norrie, De Minaur, Zverev

(Yes, Djoko is the only one in the bottom part of the draw, and all of the other ones have to fight to meet him in the final )

Wimbledon Ladies:

5*= No one

4*= Swiatek. Not because she is so good on grass (sample is small, but she hasn’t proven anything worth noticing yet)., but because she’s not meeting any stellar grass player in the top half. None of the big hitters (important in the first rounds when the grass is quicker) are in her section of the draw, so she could make the final fairly cheaply.

3,5*= Kvitova (top grass player, easy schedule post clay), Sabalenka (fantastic form, hard hitting)

3*= Rybakina (Reigning champ, but not the greatest of recent form), Muchova (RG champ, love her composure and her style that could translate well on grass)

2*= Fernandez, Garcia, Pegula. I don’t really rate them that high, but they’re in the weak part of the draw, and potentially only need to beat Swiatek (unless she’s out too by then) to make the final.

1*= Andreeva M. No sample, but could surprise a lot.

Fading the following players (no particular order)

Kyrgios, Mannarino, Tsitsipas, FAA, RBA, Williams, Svitolina, Gauff, Fritz, Berrettini, Andreescu, Lehecka, Jabeur.(Medvedev could also be some kind of fade)

GL to you all

Been some very strange results on grass in the past week. Hope this is not an omen for Wimbledon.

Some Outrights

WTA
Don't really follow the ladies but that second quarter of the draw looks weak. Kudermetova V has recently beaten Gauff and Sabalenka and she is quite fond of grass. Worth a shout

Win
Kudermetova V @ 27/1
Win 2nd Quarter
Kudermetova @ 9/2

ATP
Thought I would lump on Djoko but 11/20?? No way. I don't think there is a high seed who can beat him but there are one or two erratic players out there who could. The likes of Hurkacz and Bublik. Guess what - both in his side of the draw. Interesting times.

Cerundola F has recently beaten McDonald and Paul on grass. That 2nd quarter does not look great so worth a sniff

Win 2nd Quarter
Cerundola F @ 19/1

and these odds are too long
Win 3rd Quarter
Hanfmann @ 49/1

Laokai wrote: Fading the following players (no particular order)

Kyrgios, Mannarino, Tsitsipas, FAA, RBA, Williams, Svitolina, Gauff, Fritz, Berrettini, Andreescu, Lehecka, Jabeur.(Medvedev could also be some kind of fade)

GL to you all

Kyrgios withdraws

Day 1:
Grass season is so short that samples are small, and so first rounds can be tricky. We’ll keep it tight.
Cachin has no particular feats on grass and he meets the goat.
Kanepi isn’t wining matches anymore and she’s way past her prime.
Thiem hasn’t been the same for years now and grass never was his surface.

Djoko 3-0 + Kudermetova 2-0 + Tsitsipas = 2.04

GL

I took two of the best servers on grass, best servers for our purposes, as Bublik is erratic too, he makes many double faults, but for aces they are good for me.

Hurkacz over 23.5 aces @1.80

Hurkacz to make 20+ aces + Bublik to make 15+ aces @2.14
Hurkacz to make 15+ aces + Bublik to make 20+ aces @2.16

Van Assche vs Karatsev over 3.5 sets
Moutet vs Gasquet over 3.5 sets
Thompson vs Nakashima over 3.5 sets

Triple @2.86

Quill wrote: I took two of the best servers on grass, best servers for our purposes, as Bublik is erratic too, he makes many double faults, but for aces they are good for me.

Hurkacz over 23.5 aces @1.80

Hurkacz to make 20+ aces + Bublik to make 15+ aces @2.14
Hurkacz to make 15+ aces + Bublik to make 20+ aces @2.16

Hi quill - which bookie do you use for Aces markets? In the UK I can only see bet365 offering them but am unfortunately limited with them. Thanks

Baez v Barrios Vera
Barrios Vera has shown good form on grass and I caught most of that win over Seyboth Wild and he looked impressive. Baez leads the H2H 4-0 but clay is his surface. I'm thinking books may have the wrong favorite here

Win
Barrios Vera @ 11/10

There are two matches which look likely to run over three sets in my view so going

Wolf v Couacaud and Bublik v McDonald
Over 3.5 sets double @ 15/10

Northerner wrote:

Quill wrote: I took two of the best servers on grass, best servers for our purposes, as Bublik is erratic too, he makes many double faults, but for aces they are good for me.

Hurkacz over 23.5 aces @1.80

Hurkacz to make 20+ aces + Bublik to make 15+ aces @2.14
Hurkacz to make 15+ aces + Bublik to make 20+ aces @2.16

Hi quill - which bookie do you use for Aces markets? In the UK I can only see bet365 offering them but am unfortunately limited with them. Thanks

bet365

Quill wrote:

Northerner wrote:

Quill wrote: I took two of the best servers on grass, best servers for our purposes, as Bublik is erratic too, he makes many double faults, but for aces they are good for me.

Hurkacz over 23.5 aces @1.80

Hurkacz to make 20+ aces + Bublik to make 15+ aces @2.14
Hurkacz to make 15+ aces + Bublik to make 20+ aces @2.16

Hi quill - which bookie do you use for Aces markets? In the UK I can only see bet365 offering them but am unfortunately limited with them. Thanks

bet365

Although they are lousy on aces markets (offers and odds).
I used to have these markets at sportsbet (Australia), but for the past several tournaments they haven't had them anymore.

For anyone thinking about betting Wimbledon, note that rain is on the cards tomorrow (might even drag on til Wednesday) so make sure you bet on matches on Centre Court or Court 1 (both have a roof) if you don’t want to tie up money

GL

“Roof-treble” for tomorrow:

Murray + Alcaraz 3-0 + Sabalenka 2-0 = 1.70

Can’t bet Murrqy with hcap here since he has a tendency to let matches last, so straight up ML.
This is Chardy goodbye tournament. Great grass court player, but way past his best now.
Udvardy shouldn’t resist Sabalenka’s power.

GL

Laokai wrote: Fading the following players (no particular order)

Kyrgios, Mannarino, Tsitsipas, FAA, RBA, Williams, Svitolina, Gauff, Fritz, Berrettini, Andreescu, Lehecka, Jabeur.(Medvedev could also be some kind of fade)

GL to you all

Kyrgios withdrew.
FAA, Williams, Gauff already out.
Fritz in trouble.
Tread carefully in the first 2 rounds

Hi Guys

Sorry to ask this here, do you guys know of any decent streaming sites for Wimbledon, I just struggle to justify paying for DSTV for a month when all I want to do is set up Wimbledon for my 91 year old dad.

Thanks

Fancy two non-favorites today - Barrera and Djere so taking

Win
Barrera + Shelton @ 18/10
and
Djere + Rinderknech @ 17/10

Berrettini vs Sonego

Jaqueline Cristian v Lucia Bronzetti

Sonego has just beaten Berrettini last month in Stuttgart in two very quick sets.
Jaqueline Cristian is a mystery on grass.

Sonego + Bronzetti @2.00

Peniston vs Murray

This looks like it's going to be played tonight under the roof.
Murray won two challengers before Wimbledon, losing only one set. Also, the players he beat there were higher ranked than Peniston.

Bet: Murray 3-0 @1.83

Raonic vs Novak

Raonic over 24.5 aces @1.80

Double big servers

Cressy 15+ aces + Raonic 20+ aces @1.75

Harris vs Barrere
Straight sets winner - No

Stricker vs Popyrin
Straight sets winner - No

Double @2.02

Medvedev vs Fery
Sinner vs Schwartzmann

Double 3-0 @2.01

Good morning!
The sun is finally out in London, and the slate is rather massive. Here are my bets for today:

Hurkacz -2.5 sets 1.7
The man’s got a huge serve and a good grass court record. His season isn’t fantastic, but he’s healthy and his opponent is a nobody, even with the home crowd on his side.

Marterer 1.84
The odds are pretty handsome on the German here. He’s got a big serve and qualified well for the main draw. Mmoh is a LL and beating FAA (one of my fades) in R1 isn’t to be looked at as some kind of achievement. FAA had 63 UE across 4 sets and Mmoh had 43 himself.

Goffin + Wawrinka 2.08
I like the veterans here, after their good R1. They have the experience on their side and they both meet players without any grass pedigree. They can both have lapses and on grass things can go pretty quickly so I’ll just take the ML on both.

GL

One from the early matches.

Davidovic Fokina v Fils
DF has been poor recently and my take is this cap should be around choice.

Win
Fils @ 27/20

Goffin + Wawrinka @2.04

Actually following Laokai with this one.

Murray vs Tsitsipas

Since Badosa entered in Tsitsipas life, the Greek player has not been as sharp as before on the tennis courts.
Now on grass, a surface where he is not at his best anyway, I think Murray will beat him.
Playing at Wimbledon with the crowd behind him, Murray should win this.

Bet: Murray @1.72

Murray + Tiafoe @2.07
Murray + Fritz @2.07

Cerundolo vs Lehecka

Cerundolo is not just a clay courter.

Last year he played a very good match against Nadal at Wimbledon, winning a set.

He reached the quarter-finals in Miami.
Last week he won the title in Eastbourne.

Lehecka is mediocre on grass and hasn't done anything of note since the beginning of the year at the Australian Open and Doha.

This is a great opportunity for Cerundolo to reach round three here.

Bet: Cerundolo @1.88

Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev

Mannarino is one of the more in-form grass-court players on the tour. He made a couple of quarterfinals and the final in Mallorca last week. He wasn’t fully fit in the final against Chris Eubanks, but he seemed well in his opener this week against Alexander Shevchenko.

Another bit of bad news for Medvedev is that he has had a bit of a matchup problem with Mannarino. Medvedev has only beaten him twice in their six previous encounters. Mannarino has won three of their four meetings on grass, including at Hertogenbosch a few weeks ago.

Medvedev won a few matches in this year’s tune up event in Halle and he advanced to the second round at Wimbledon with a straight-set win over British wild card Arthur Fery.
With the head-to-head and current form, I think Mannarino takes this one.

Bet 1: A few beers on Mannarino @4.40
Bet 2: Mannarino +5.5 @1.85

Quill wrote: Cerundolo vs Lehecka

Cerundolo is not just a clay courter.

Last year he played a very good match against Nadal at Wimbledon, winning a set.

He reached the quarter-finals in Miami.
Last week he won the title in Eastbourne.

Lehecka is mediocre on grass and hasn't done anything of note since the beginning of the year at the Australian Open and Doha.

This is a great opportunity for Cerundolo to reach round three here.

Bet: Cerundolo @1.88

Cerundolo losing this 3-0. He's hot garbage. Sorry Quill.

Dimitrov vs Ivashka 3-0 @2.25
Fritz vs Ymer 3-0 @2.37