Wimbledon 2023

Quill wrote:

Laokai wrote: Women)

...
(On a side note, I want to apologise for writing such long previews, but I actually like it. I hope it’s not bothering anyone)

GL

Very good previews, Laokai, thank you.

Just know for future, breaking a text in paragraphs makes it much easier to read.

Haha, thanks for the tip, will do!!

Sinner and Djokovic saved my day yesterday.

Let's see what can I do today.

Keys vs Sabalenka

Now with Iga Swiatek out, Sabalenka has a clearer path to the title here and becoming World No. 1. She has been very motivated throughout the tournament so far.

Keys struggled with Mirra Andreeva, but the teenager let her off the hook. Keys deserves credit for that comeback, as well, but something of that nature just isn’t going to happen against an opponent of Sabalenka’s skill and experience.
Her opponents so far have not been of Sabalenka's calibre and Aryna does look like a player at another level.

Jabeur vs Rybakina

I think Rybakina is one of the best grass players right now. She is strong and dominates her opponents with her serve and her powerful, very difficult to return groundstrokes.

Her first serve is incredibly good, 93% vs Rogers, 78% vs Cornet, 84% vs Boulter, 100% vs Haddad Maia when she retired, and I think this will be key in this match.

Jabeur is a very ambitious player, but this year she hasn't been her best. I don't think she can win this match.

Double: Sabalenka + Rybakina @2.33

Medvedev - Eubanks

Eubanks has a big serve which makes service breaks be generally few and far in between.
His third-round match against Christopher O’Connell required tiebreakers for each of the 3 sets and then he won a 5-setter against Tsitsipas.

Prior to Wimbledon, the best run that Eubanks ever had was a quarterfinal performance at the 2023 Miami Open.
Medvedev was the one who halted him in South Beach.

Although he admitted to hate grass before this summer began, Eubanks is arguably most dangerous on this surface thanks to his huge serve and flat, powerful one-handed backhand. Those weapons have helped propel him to new heights, his first ATP title on the grass in Mallorca and now with his first quarter-final at Wimbledon. 

Medvedev is no grass-court specialist himself. He lost right away in ‘s-Hertogenbosch to Adrian Mannarino to begin his grass-court season and then lost in the Halle quarterfinals to Roberto Bautista Agut in straight sets. However, he has turned things around here with only Fucsovics managing to take one set so far.

Eubanks brings a bigger game and more confidence to the table than those opponents, and Medvedev is well aware of it.

“He’s a great player,” Medvedev said. “Miami was his first…let’s call it breakthrough in a way. That’s where he went into the top hundred, coming from qualies, made (the) quarters–his best result at the (time). He played great against me. It was a very tough match. I was on fire. I managed to beat him. But it was a tough one."

“Here he’s on fire again. He just won his first ATP title. Here in the quarters beating Stefanos (in) five sets; unbelievable…. I know that I’m playing someone very dangerous in the quarterfinals who is on the rise right now. I hope he’s not going to be on absolute fire. Or if he is, I hope I’m going to be, too.”

Bet: Over 38.5 games @1.90

Alcaraz vs Rune

Alcaraz is a huge favourite, but I expect Rune to be competitive. In their only previous encounter on the main tour (Paris Masters last year) Rune took the first set before Alcaraz retired in the second-set tiebreaker. Obviously Alcaraz is in better shape and is a better overall player now, but so is Rune.

Despite not playing his best earlier in the tournament, Alcaraz showed up when it mattered. He played fantastic grass-court tennis in the fourth round to dispatch a back-to-form Matteo Berrettini. Berrettini, who made the Wimbledon final in 2021, played his best tennis of the year, but Alcaraz was just better.

Like Alcaraz, Rune has learned how to make his game work on all surfaces. He had zero grass-court wins prior to the 2023 season. He made the semifinals at Queen’s Club and now finds himself in the quarters of Wimbledon.

Rune won a pair of epic matches in the third and fourth rounds to earn his spot in the quarters. His five-set, third-round clash against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina might be the match of the tournament so far.

Assuming Rune takes even one set, the over should arrive.

Bet 1: Over 36.5 games @1.79
Bet 2: Double - Over 3.5 sets (both men's games) @2.79

Forgot to add

Medvedev and over 35.5 games @2.10

Enjoy the takes Laokai. Always good to get a few opinions on a match.

Medvedev v Eubanks
Same as Quill but would have loved that line

Medvedev and over 37.5 games @ 29/20

Alcaraz v Rune

No full strike on this match but always find adrenaline levels much better if there is at least a beer at stake. I think Alcaraz wins pretty easily but hoping Rune can do Quill a favor and sneak a set

Alcaraz 3-1 @ 26/10

Semifinals Women

E.Svitolina (WC, 29yo, WTA76) - M.Vondrousova (24yo, WTA42)

Vondrousova just missed the cut to be seeded here, so she had to beat #12, #20, #32 and #4 to make it to the SF. She doesn’t generate a lot of pace herself but she’s a great counter-puncher and she’s got a very good tennis IQ. She’s not a typical big hitter but rather uses angles and moves around her opponents. She’s battles hard on every point, is on a wonderful run here and is great fun to watch. She’s made it to a GS SF before, so she knows a little about it.
Svitolina post-maternity has been surprisingly good and consistent. Maybe not having her family here helps her keeping focused, or maybe she’s just found her inner self. She’s beaten Williams, Mertens, Kenin, Azarenka and Swiatek to get here. Nobody can say she had an easy path to the semis. She’s had to dig deep in the last 2 rounds, playing for almost 3hrs each time.
Svitolina has beaten better players than Vondrousova, and those players gave her different looks so she’s had to find different kind of solutions, which she did well. As previsouly stated, she’s never been past this stage (2 SF in 2019), but maybe her time has come?
Svitolina leads the H2H 3-2, with Vondrousova winning their last 2 meetings (most recent being Olympics SF match 6-3, 6-1).
I think Svitolina takes this because she’s proven more and better things here, but their H2H history, the way MV fights and the last two long matches ES has had to play scare me off a little. I’m still a little surprised the market has made Vondrousova a favourite here.
I’ll go half stakes on Svitolina at 2.11.

Jabeur (29yo, WTA6) - Sabalenka (25yo, WTA2)
Jabeur is last year’s runner up and just avenged her Final loss by beating Rybakina in the QF.
She’s won well all of her matches here, and given her season so far, that’s a little surprise. But she moves well and she’s got a special set of skills that very few WTA players have. She doesn’t hit hard but she uses the court well and likes to give geometry lessons to her opponents. She’s not scared of meeting hard hitters, as her wins vs Andreescu, Kvitova and Rybakina demonstrate.

Sabalenka needs to wins this match to take over the throne as world #1.
She’s full of confidence, and she’s crushed everyone she’s met so far, but she had trouble with the only player that could bring her a little variation (Gracheva). She’s hit through everyone else.

The H2H is 3-1 Sabalenka, with her winning the only grass meeting (Wimbledon 2021, 6-3,6-4).

I can’t get a good read here. Since these two played their QFs today, and Jabeur had to battle a little hard vs Rybakina, she might be a little tired and/or emotionally drained. I don’t think she can take this 2-0, but nothing else would really shock me. I lean Sabalenka, but no value in betting @1.58, so I’ll just sit and watch peacefully

GL everyone!

I am surprised too that Svitolina is the underdog here, despite what she has shown so far at Wimbledon.
Actually, she was a favourite only in her first match, against Venus Williams, and in all the other four matches she was the underdog, and she beat all the "favourites", Mertens, Kenin, Azarenka, Swiatek, and in every match the betting was against her.
I also bet against her in those matches.

This time I'm betting on Svitolina @2.08

Not a follower of the WTA but based on the above posts this strikes me as a runner. Should be able to cover if she makes the final and hangs in for a few games.

Wimbledon Out Right

Winner Ladies
Svitolina @ 5/1

Men’s Semifinals

Well, the ladies weren’t kind to us, so let’s focus on the men, where the swings in momentum are as frequent and as “violent” and unpredictable, especially in Slams.

Sinner-Djokovic
Apart from raw power, everything Sinner does, Djoko can do better. On top of this he’s got more experience both at this level, in 5-set-format and on grass.
I believe this is one of the worst matchups possible for the young Italian.
One should note that although Djoko leads the H2H 2-0, Sinner took him to 5 sets at Wimbledon last year, leading 2-0 before getting trounced in the last 3 sets.
Sinner has had trouble to get through to the last stages of Slams so far, and most observers are questioning his mental ability to do so (on top of recurrent physical issues).
I personally feel he can go walkabout sometimes in the course of a match, and this shan’t be the case here. He’ll probably take some solace in last year’s encounter, but truly I can’t see past Djoko. I was on Hurkacz +2.5 sets but the Pole has a massive serve, and earlier in the tournament that’s even a bigger weapon. If Sinner hits hard and his serve is one par (that wasn’t the case last year), he might make a match of this, but I can’t even pull the trigger at 1.72 to bet over 3.5 sets.
No bet for me.


Alcaraz-Medvedev

Before starting the preview I note that the AELTC has scheduled start at 1.30pm as always, with a curfew at 11.00pm. Slow(er) grass and the style of play of the 4 players left in the draw could mean that the second match doesn’t end before they have to close shop. That would be truly disappointing for all parties involved, and yet another argument for those complaining about bad scheduling from the tournament’s direction (this year’s schedule has been indeed ridiculous at times).
As much as we can talk about Alcaraz, no one truly knows where his ceiling is, especially on grass and in 5-setters. Everyone has in mind his physical choke vs Djokovic after only 2 sets at the French. His grass record is very slim: 1/4 in Boys tournament in ‘19
Wimbledon R2 3-0-loss to Medvedev in ‘21
Queen’s ATP500 win and then this Wimbledon semifinal this year.
How about this for improvement…?
Medvedev’s grass sample is larger given that he’s 27yo, but he was a late bloomer and wasn’t elite before 2020. And at Wimbledon the record it’s slimmer, as 2020 was cancelled, then he got taken out by Hurkacz in ‘21, and he couldn’t play 2022, being excluded by the tournament. So it’s kind of hard to try to analyse his abilities against top players on grass.
We know he’s got a massive tennis IQ, great serve, elite movement for a tall guy and superb flat ground strokes from both wings. We also know he’s vulnerable to players who come to the net and push him hard with serve-volley. Eubanks did that very well, and although Alcaraz isn’t built like the American and has a completely different set of tools, he can easily steal time away from Medvedev albatross-like strikes.
So far, Alcaraz has shown that he’s a fast learner and we’ve seen him avenge his early losses quite rapidly and effectively. I think he’s learned a lot since his straight defeat to Medvedev here 2 years ago. He beat him well in the final at IW (very slow hard court) in March.
I think he can do it again here, and set up for the dream final everyone wants to see (I actually have more belief that Alcaraz wins this than Djoko beats Sinner, strangely).

I like:
Alcaraz -3.5 games at 1.79.
Alcaraz -1.5 sets at 1.76.
Medvedev under 19.5 games at 1.79


GL!

*…”where the swings in momentum are NOT as frequent…” is what I meant, sorry :-/

Sinner v Djokovic

Surprised Sinner has physically held up so well. I think this could be 3 or 4 sets but do not expect them to run to tie breaks.

Win Djokovic and under 37.5 games @ 11/10

Beers for the day

Sinner/Djoko 4 sets into Alcaraz/Medvedev 5 sets @ 11/1

My punting day has gone totally down the tubes so I may as well embarrass myself further

Alcaraz v Medvedev

Win Medvedev and over 40.5 games @ 4/1

Ladies final
There’s a massive storytelling surrounding Jabeur here, and one should be well wary of that.
She’s a crowd favourite and so you can hear this and that about what could or should happen: “Should she win here, she’d avenge her two previous losses in GS finals”, “she’s learned and grown a lot from them”, “she’d be the first African (woman) to win a Slam,” the first Muslim (woman) to do so”, “her beautiful tennis, her smile and her fantastic personality deserve to be rewarded with a major win”, bla-bla-bla…
I think all this has contributed to two things: her price being so short, and the amount of pressure she now has on her.

Vondrousova has beaten her twice this year already, both on quick hard (AO) and on very slow hard (IW). The H2H is 3-2 for the Czech, with the only grass match going to Jabeur in 2021. There’s no fairy tale in professional sport. You either win, or you don’t.

Jabeur has all the tools in the box (apart from sheer power).
Vondrousova counters better than anyone else on tour right now (kinda Halep style although the skill set is a little different). She’s a 24 yo lefty who’s never been past R16 in any GS apart from her Final at RG in ‘19 (clay’s her favourite surface). I don’t think going to a new GS final is going to scare her even if it comes a little surprising to her. She’s the underdog here and she’s got much less pressure on her shoulders than the Tunisian.
Jabeur’s had to dig a little deeper than Vondrousova in this tournament, but those are grass court matches that never went beyond 2.5 hours, so I don’t think the physical part should play a role here.

I see two well matched ladies who are fit for fight and ready to give it their all. Given their past common history and the way this tournament has been going for both of them, I don’t see anyone running away with a thumping here. I see a hard fought battle, either in 2 tight sets or in 3.
Over 21.5 games is the play, and I hit it at 1.83.

GL to you all!

Men’s final
Here it is fellas, the final everyone has waited for since Alcaraz shot through the rankings last year, the ultimate men’s tennis showdown of 2023: the best pedigree of all time vs ultimate next gen wunderkind.
Everyone has their last encounter fresh in mind, the clay version of Ok Corral that actually turned out being a dud, just because the kid could deliver the goods on the given day, totally cooked by the pressure already after 2 sets.
This time, if even possible, the stakes are even higher. The #1 ranking is on the table, Alcaraz can get a 2nd slam, Djokovic can win his 24th slam, his 8th Wimbledon (5th in a row), and be on his way to a first ever calendar grand slam (would need to win US Open in September), the first to do so since Laver in 1969.

Of course it kinda looks like a mountain too high for Alcaraz, given Djoko’CV. But the kid had only ever played 3 professional grass tournaments in his life prior to this Wimbledon. So he’s won a title (at Queens this year) and is in the Wimbledon final on his 4th tournament on grass. No matter who’s on the other side of the net, this alone deserves some praise and testifies to the steep learning curve the kid’s been through.
The way he dispatched Medvedev in the semis was a masterclass, although one could argue the matchup was perfect for him on this surface.
He’s already got elite footwork and technical abilities to master the grass courts and he seems to thrive on it, not showing any kind of frustration regarding the funny bounces or how the court can sometimes be.
He’s got great weapons all across the board, but his serve might be his weakest spot, especially here where he won’t get any extra points, meeting arguably the best returner in the game of tennis.
I think this dooms him vs Djokovic. The Serb won’t give him any free points, and his experience here should allow him to prevail fairly comfortably.

Bets I’m going for:
Under 41.5 at 1.81
Djoko -1.5 sets at 2.06

The women’s tourney wasn’t good for me, and the final proved my point when I missed my mark by one last service hold from Ons.
The men have been much kinder so I’m hoping the continued!

GL!

I think Alcaraz will give a good account of himself and Djoko will not win easily.

I'm trying to find a bet.
I'm on a short break away from home and don't have time for research.

It could be an over 40.5 games or over 15.5 aces that I'll go for.
Haven't decided yet.

The bookies expect a long-ish match too, as the total games for Djokovic is a bit high.

Quill wrote: I think Alcaraz will give a good account of himself and Djoko will not win easily.

I'm trying to find a bet.
I'm on a short break away from home and don't have time for research.

It could be an over 40.5 games or over 15.5 aces that I'll go for.
Haven't decided yet.

The bookies expect a long-ish match too, as the total games for Djokovic is a bit high.

I've taken over 40.5 games @1.83

Alcaraz v Djokovic

My read here is clay or slowish hard court is Alcaraz's best surface whereas Djokovic is at his best on the faster surfaces. The only reasonable grass court test for Alcaraz has been the out of shape Berrettini and Jarry. I thought Jarry did better than the score suggests. I think Djokovic's most difficult match in this tournament is past and that was Hurkacz.

Match Games
Alcaraz under 19.5 @ 9/10

Well the betting was ok for the tournament as a whole, taking home peanuts in comparison to what was staked, but at least we’re up some.
Finals went to s*** betting wise, but I’m super glad Alcaraz won, since I as a tennis fan can’t stand Djokovic. I didn’t think the kid had in him to take this particular title so early in his career, especially vs that guy, but we’ve just witnessed something special. I hope his body can’t take the toll and allows him to play many more years, because he is truly fun to watch.
Thanks to everyone who contributed in the thread, it was nice to have sparring partners