Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
- Brent Graham
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A bit worrying is that bookmakers have this as a 2 horse race with defending champ Vingegaard at 11/10 and Pogacar 23/20, Hindley is next in the betting at 14/1
I am a big Pogacar fan and would love him to win but he is coming off a layoff since his wrist op although did win his national road and ITT titles this weekend (don't think Roglic was present though)
The other thing to fear for outright backers is that cycling seem to be the only sport which still tests for Covid and that could take your pick out when he is 3 minutes clear
An interesting one could be Adam Yates at 50/1 - he is there mainly for Pogacar but I think UAE will want to keep him in contention to use to pressure JV - you never know what happens to the favs and he may be worth a 50/1 nibble or perhaps 10/1 for a podium
We will be doing video previews for each stage and links will be posted in this thread
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/TDF2023/tour-de-fra...betting-markets.html
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Skjelmose Top 3 finish King of the Mountains @20/1
Ciccone Top 3 finish for Stage 1 @25/1
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- Brent Graham
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- southpaw
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So if someone gets covid - rule is has to be withdrawn, or optional for team to decide? Does make for some serious consideration on outrights.
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- Brent Graham
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My understanding (from recent races like the Giro) is the rider can stay in if he doesn't have symptoms but my question is why are they even testing then. The only sport where you still see masks especially amongst support staff - it makes long term betting risky although I am hoping we don't even hear the word over the next 3 weeks
Biggest recent example Evenepoel withdrawing from Giro a few hours after winning an ITT - would have taken many tickets with him
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- Profitable_Hedgehog
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Hoping he has the legs to win a stage in his first Tour De France.
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- Brent Graham
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www.velogames.com/velogame/2023/leaguesc...php?league=513047014
League Name: Goodforthegame
League Code: 513047014
Looks like a nice simple format - all welcome
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- The Vann
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Number of riders to wear yellow
TdF is front loaded so taking
Under 3.5 @ 14/10
Not a great looking INEOS team. Bernal on record saying if he makes it to Paris it will be a win
Bahrain-V to beat INEOS @ 11/10
Groupama FDJ were second last year. Some teams were short of riders but they finished only 38min behind a full INEOS outfit
Team 1-3
Groupama FDJ @ 7/1
One for old times
Green jersey 1-3
Sagan @ 12/1
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- Brent Graham
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2 units Girmay Green at 11/1
Reckon he can be thereabouts in sprints and hopefully collect when the real quicks cannot. Will have a team willing to help him get into breaks and if he is in contention would make it a target
1 unit AG2R Team Classification at 20/1
Got a few decent climbers and if O'Conner falls out of podium contention can infiltrate breaks. Would need luck in running but if given a sniff this French team would fight for it
Stage 1 preview will be up tonight or early tomorrow
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- Brent Graham
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2 units Girmay Green at 11/1
Reckon he can be thereabouts in sprints and hopefully collect when the real quicks cannot. Will have a team willing to help him get into breaks and if he is in contention would make it a target
1 unit AG2R Team Classification at 20/1
Got a few decent climbers and if O'Conner falls out of podium contention can infiltrate breaks. Would need luck in running but if given a sniff this French team would fight for it
Stage 1 preview will be up tonight or early tomorrow
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- Brent Graham
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You Tube Preview of Stage 1
Long Term Bets
2 units Girmay Green at 11/1 at WSB
1 unit AG2R team at 25/1 at Sportingbet
4 units Skjelmose/S Yates at 11/10 Betxchange
Stage 1 Bets
1 unit Girmay Top 10 at 7/1 at WSB
0.5 units Pidcock at 14/1 at Sportingbet
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- southpaw
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Taken a special with Boyles.
Alaphillipe or Pidcock win
@ 7/1
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- The Vann
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Stage 1
e/w
Alaphilippe @ 15/1
1-3
Bardet @ 25/1
Top 10
Ciccone @ 3/1
Match bet double
Ciccone/Woods - Champoussin/Latour @ 21/10
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Like the Ciccone Top 10 @3/1 and Podium 25/1
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- Brent Graham
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Click here for the Stage 2 preview
Summary after Stage 1
Long Term: 7 units pending
Stage: -1.5 units
Overall: -1.5 units
Stage 2 Bets
1 unit Van Aert at 3/1 at WSB
0.5 unit Girmay 14/1 at WSB
0.5 unit Philipsen at 33/1 at WSB
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- The Vann
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Stage 2
Win
Philipsen @ 33/1
e/w
Strong @ 22/1
Philipsen if the climb is average and the 4/1 Strong place if it is very hard.
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- Brent Graham
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The other one is why did UAE work so hard?
Click here for stage 3 betting preview
Summary after Stage 2
Long Term: 7 units pending
Stage: -2.5 units
Overall: -2.5 units
Stage 3 Bets
0.5 units Girmay win at 14/1 at WSB
2 units Van Aert win at 14/1 at WSB
0.25 unit Pidcock win at Sunbet
0.25 unit Strong win at Sunbet
0.25 unit Pogacar Top 3 at 100/1 at Sunbet
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- The Vann
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Joining Brent with a beer on Pogs which I got at 80/1
No great inspiration today. The bend 200 odd metres out concerns me. It makes the sprint dangerous and a bit of a lottery so still beer level for me.
Win
Ewan @ 11/1
1-3
Kristoff @ 15/1
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- Brent Graham
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Onwards we go and a speculative double in the match play market
Click here for the video preview
Summary after Stage 3
Long Term: 7 units pending
Stage: -5.75 units
Overall: -5.75 units
Stage 4 Bets
2 units Philipson win at 12/10 at WSB
2 units Vingegaard/Pogacar onto Coquard/Sagan at 3.7/1 at WSB
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Biggest bet yet for me on him to beat Sagan. They've got the prices the wrong way round
Also took a little of Pogi to win the K.O.M @4/1
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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Still beer level for me. First stage to see a chunk of my hard earned dosh will be the final climb on stage 6.
e/w
Ewan @ 14/1
I think without a lead out he has to follow wheels and will therefor go late. Should be perfect for the expected head wind so the 5/2 place looks good
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Podium finish Tom Pidcock @5/1
Hang on up the last climb fly down the descent; or just outsprint the climbers left!
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- Brent Graham
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Stage 5 Preview on You Tube
Summary after Stage 4
Long Term: 7 units pending
Stage: -3 units
Overall: -3 units
Stage 5 Bets
2 units Pogacar win at 5/2 at WSB (Money back for 2nd Promo)
0.5 unit Gall win at 28/1 at WSB
0.5 unit Adam Yates win at 40/1 at WSB
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- Brent Graham
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Stage 5 Bets
2 units Pogacar win at 5/2 at WSB (Money back for 2nd Promo)
0.5 unit Gall win at 28/1 at WSB
0.5 unit Adam Yates win at 40/1 at WSB
0.5 unit Simon Yates win at 50/1 at Betx
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- The Vann
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Joining Brent on Pogs also at 5/2
Throwing in a place on Lafay as he has generally been the last man standing when the big two went.
1-3
Lafay @ 15/2
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- kcmarinopirlo
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- Brent Graham
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I am pressing my AG2R at 25/1 for team classification
Click here to watch on You Tube
Summary after Stage 5
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -6 units
Overall: -6 units
Stage 6 Bets
0.5 unit Pedrero win at 66/1 at WSB (Money back for 2nd Promo)
0.25 unit Peters win at 300/1 at WSB
1 unit AG2R team comp at 25/1
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- The Vann
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I think the right break stays away today so looking at riders over 4min behind.
Joining Brent on Peters which I got at 250/1
and adding
Win
G Martin @ 66/1
e/w
Van Gils @ 250/1
and my first proper bet
Match bet double
Pidcock/Woods - Pinot/Bernal @ 17/10
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- Brent Graham
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2.5 units Ciccone/Gall at 11/10
Gall will likely be in break but if GC contest he will likely fade and his is fluctuating so may also have a bad day - Ciccone not riding for himself but can't see him giving up his GC position
Van also going a unit on your Pidcock/Pinot but throwing in Gaudu/S Yates to get a 33/10 treble
1 unit on the treble
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- southpaw
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- The Vann
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Nil in the break for me.
Taking Tobias Johannessen @ 9/1
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- Brent Graham
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A punting blank for me and my main long term play Sjkelmose/S Yates also in big trouble
But yet I am in a great mood - what a stage and I am so happy Pogacar found his legs to keep this tour alive
Stage 7 Betting Preview on You Tube
Summary after Stage 6
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -11.25 units
Overall: -11.25 units
Stage 7 Bets
2 units Philipsen win at 1/1 at WSB (2nd place Promo)
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- southpaw
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Sam Welsford 20/1 ew, if he can get some better help from teammates I think he’s got the legs to win a stage.
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- The Vann
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Stage 7
Back to small stakes. Next big look will be Sunday. Sticking with my man Caleb.
Win
Ewan @ 9/2
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- Brent Graham
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Click her to watch Stage 8 on You Tube
Summary after Stage 7
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -9.25 units
Overall: -9.25 units
Stage 8 Bets
2 units Van Aert win at 4/1 at WSB (2nd place Promo)
0.5 unit Girmay at 11/1 at WSB (2nd place Promo)
0.5 unit Coquard at 18/1 at WSB (2nd place Promo)
2 units Ewan/Philipsen at 7/4 at WSB
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- southpaw
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- Cyclingexpert
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Stage 9 Preview on You Tube
Summary after Stage 8
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -14.25 units
Overall: -14.25 units
Stage 9 Bets
0.5 unit Gall at 20/1
0.5 unit Ciccone at 20/1
0.25 unit Meintjes at 125/1
0.25 unit Pedrero at 125/1
3 units Gaudu/S Yates at 1/1 (credit @GrootLem)
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- The Vann
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Quite possibly a break-away stage so may take something in-play. Initial bets are
Win
Gall @ 20/1
e/w
Martin @ 125/1
Match bet
Rodriguez/Hindley @ 2/1
and smalls on the double
Rodriguez/Hindley - Vingegaard/Pogs 13/2
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- southpaw
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WvA 40/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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LOL yes I only realised after I was def trying not to talk too loud
No joy for me on the betting front - looked at Woods but went with Gall and Ciccone instead
Great ride by Woods not to panic and what a battle over the final km between Pogacar and Vingegaard
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- The Vann
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Woods probably the guy but 7/10 is not on
Berthet @ 14/1
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- Brent Graham
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Watch Stage 10 Betting Preview on You Tube
Summary after Stage 9
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -18.75 units
Overall: -18.75 units
Stage 10 Bets
0.5 unit Mohoric at 20/1
0.5 unit Aranburu at 40/1
0.5 unit Cosnefroy at 80/1
0.25 unit Geniets at 500/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Also on Cosnefroy and Top 10 finish
Powless and Top 10
And Zimmerman
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- The Vann
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Stage looks like a locked in break which could include the likes of van Aert/vd Poel/Pedersen which means probably no in-play bet today. Not going to attempt to pick from any of those at very short odds.
Do not want to be the odd man out so joining on Cosnefroy and taking
Win
Wright @ 28/1
Turgis @ 100/1
e/w
Nielands @ 185/1
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- Brent Graham
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No joy for me although small stakes thankfully
Stage 11 Betting Preview on You Tube
Summary after Stage 10
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -20.25 units
Overall: -20.25 units
Time for the comeback to begin
Stage 11 Bets
5 units Philipsen win at 11/10 at WSB (money back for 2nd promo)
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