US Open Tennis

Leaning Zverev on the out rights as that 20/1 looks attractive. Would have to see the draw though. First out right for me.
This is the US Open and the USA has no chance on the ATP side. I think Gauff has a reasonable shot at this and I expect her to be slightly assisted by her opponents getting the second night slot as the tournament progresses. I have no doubt the scheduling will favor her and the current 10/1 floating around should shorten a little.

Winner US Open WTA
Gauff @ 10/1

I feel that very few players come to this US Open with a lot of confidence.
Djokovic is an obvious choice, while Alcaraz has been pretty poor for his own standards after Wimbledon. He’s being coached to death from the sidelines and seems to let pure talent and physicality solve his matches. He’s got plenty of both, so that works against many players, but I’m not sure he can defend his title here. Djokovic will most likely end the tournament as nr.1 anyway.
I like this take on Zverev. He’s been playing well for a while (bar Toronto) due a big performance, and he’s playing with house money for the rest of the year. Being 12th seed here can hurt him when the draw comes though, so he’ll need a little luck.
I also like a little sprinkle on Hurkacz at 35/1.

Fade list: (Alcaraz), Ruud, Tiafoe, Norrie,

I don’t share the enthusiasm about Gauff. Given her recent form she’s an obvious contender, especially now that she’s paired with B.Gilbert, but I like to see form over a longer period of time before I deem players as solid chances.
Also, there’s often a bigger chance of winning at roulette than at WTA outright, so I find it hard to get value in outrights.
Of course, that’s only my opinion and nothing more.
I’ll share my fade WTA list for this USO:
Rybakina, Garcia, Sakkari, Krejcikova.

GL!

US Open starts today.
To add to my fade list, I wouldn’t bet on Rune, Tsitsipas and Fritz. The last two here are having strange seasons and for me they lack consistency to make a real dent here. Rune is on a 5-match losing streak, he’s changed coach, and seems a little lost.
Zverev has a real tough path to an eventual final, but with him and Hurkacz both in the top half, we might have a decent chance at a final shot at very good odds…

Now some betting for today. Fair weather today in NYC, so OOP should go fine (that won’t be the case on Tuesday/Wednesday so you might want to avoid matches on outside courts then).

Tiafoe (-2.5 sets) vs Tien.
Tiafoe is on my fade list but he meets here a WC US junior with no real weapon. He shouldn’t have any trouble sending him home in straight sets.

Eubanks (1.3) vs Kwon
Leon has been sidelined since February and this is his first tourney back. I suspect he’s here for the pay check but isn’t ready yet for 5-set-tennis. Eubanks is having the best season of his career and even with a little dip in form post grass season, he should dispose of Kwon here.

The double pays 1.82, and I’ll hit it medium hard.

GL to you all!

I also want to share my fades of the day:
Bublik, Korda, Sakkari, Rybakina, Tomljanovic, Ostapenko, Tsitsipas, Kvitova.

Very many matches to go through, no time for a write-up unfortunately.

Bublik vs Thiem over 0.5 tie-breaks
Stricker vs Popyrin over 0.5 tie-breaks
Double @2.14

Bublik vs Thiem over 3.5 sets
Stricker vs Popyrin over 3.5 sets
Double @2.16

Combo

Dellien vs Gojo - Five setter? - No @1.20
Hijikata vs Kotov - Hijikata minim 2 sets @1.36
Musetti vs Droguet - Five setter? - No @1.16
Fucsovics vs Korda - Korda @1.50
Tien vs Tiafoe 0-3 @1.40

Total odds 4.00

Bublik vs Thiem

How badly does Bublik want to win this?
He didn't show much in his two matches against Monfils and Hurkacz in Washington and Toronto respectively.

Thiem on the other hand is trying hard every time and hopefully he is ambitious enough to get back to where he was.

A six-pack on Thiem to win @2.37

OUTRIGHTS

Draw could have been better for Zverev but I have taken a few units on that 20/1 to win.

Also taking
To be eliminated in the semi's - Yes De Minaur @ 14/1

Also opposing Tsitsipas today

Win
Eubanks/Davidovich Fokina/Raonic @ 6/1

Medvedev has a good draw and the odds to win his quarter are 2.30

Djoko has the Irish luck again and to win his quarter he is quoted at 1.20.

I took Medvedev @2.30
and also double
Medvedev + Djoko to win their quarters @2.86

Dellien vs Gojo

Gojo 3-0 @2.00

Thanks gents for all the insights and plays. A double for me for day 1:

Bublik/Thiem over 3.5 sets + Tsitsipas/Raonic over 3.5 sets @ 12/10

You are a lucky man Quill. I have tried all my books for a 1/4 winners multi and not one will accept. Was looking at Alcaraz/Rublev/Rune/Djoko at around 75/1

I never make these sets bets but it's a new day and a new tournament so going again

Over 3.5 sets
Wolf + Ivashka @ 15/10

Hey!
There’s rain on the cards from 20.00 local time, and I don’t want to tie up money waiting for the showers to pass. I also hate it when rain disturbs the rythm of the match, so I’ll pass today.
The first matches (and the ones on the roofed arenas) will be fine but I couldn’t find value in any of those.

I would fade Garcia, Tsurenko, Norrie, Monfils.

GL to you all!

I think Fils is quite likely going to be a handful today and neither Aussie would want to lose the country match-up.

Over 3.5 sets

Griekspoor v Fils + Purcell v O"Connell @ 5/4

Two matches today which look like the wrong favorite to me. Going to double both with Jarry who should be keen to go deep here so he does not have to go home and look after the new baby.


Duckworth over Meligeni Alves into Jarry win @ 9/4

Humbert over Berrettini into Jarry win @ 26/10

Thanks guys, I like Pella to upset Harris tonight. The bookies seem to think Pella is only a clay court player but he has a good record against big servers. With Harris unpredictability regarding injuries and inconsistent performances, I think Pella will battle past him in maybe 4 or 5 sets.

Pella to win - 21/10

I think Andy Murray can make even the easiest match look difficult. Worth a punt

Murray v Moutet
Over 36.5 games @ 17/20

Harris + Sinner 3-0 @2.02

Sinner 3-0 + Alcaraz 3-0 @2.00

Evans + Etcheverry @2.05

Zheng + Wawrinka @1.80

Laokai wrote: I don’t share the enthusiasm about Gauff. Given her recent form she’s an obvious contender, especially now that she’s paired with B.Gilbert, but I like to see form over a longer period of time before I deem players as solid chances.
Also, there’s often a bigger chance of winning at roulette than at WTA outright, so I find it hard to get value in outrights.
Of course, that’s only my opinion and nothing more.


I’ll share my fade WTA list for this USO:
Rybakina, Garcia, Sakkari, Krejcikova.

GL!

Garcia, Sakkari and Krejcikova already out. Rybakina got a free pass in R2 with a walkover, but she might already struggle in R3 vs seasoned Cirstea.

Laokai wrote: US Open starts today.
To add to my fade list, I wouldn’t bet on Rune, Tsitsipas and Fritz. The last two here are having strange seasons and for me they lack consistency to make a real dent here. Rune is on a 5-match losing streak, he’s changed coach, and seems a little lost.
Zverev has a real tough path to an eventual final, but with him and Hurkacz both in the top half, we might have a decent chance at a final shot at very good odds…

Rune and Tsitty out of the tournament already. Hope someone grabbed some of that.

US Open day 4 thoughts (no particular order):
-Hurkacz had a tough R1. Draper had an easy R1. The Brit is stellar when he’s injury-free, but that’s very rare. Fun to watch, no bet.
-Sinner had a serious R1, even if the opposition wasn’t all that great. He thrives vs fellow Italians. Somehow easy R1, but lacks consistency at top level. 3-0 Sinner is at even money, I’ll have some of that.
-I like Altmaier, and he’s having a great season. I don’t think the odds reflect the difference between him and Zverev, but I don’t know how to handicap this one, so no bet. Fun watch though.
-Murray leads Dimitrov 8-2 on HC but they haven’t played H2H since 2016, si history might no be super relevant here. Good season by Dimitrov so far but his R1 was awful. At even money I’ll take some Murray ML. Great popcorn match.
-I don’t know how to read form for Wawrinka, Berrettini, Fils, Norrie, De Minaur, Rublev and Monfils so no bet on these.
-I think Baez takes Meligeni quite easily so it’s a good parlay leg.
-Evans is in great form, and meets an out-of-form VDZ, I think he takes him at good odds, which I’ll parlay with Baez for a nice double.
-Harrisbhad a very good win in R1, while Alcaraz only got half a match. He should roll Harrris, but I’m still having doubts about Carlitos here so I’ll just sit back and watch.
-Meds had a really tough match vs O’Connell in Doha this year, and hopefully for him he’ll have learnt from that. In best of 5, he should prevail, but no bet.

No bet with the ladies, but I liked Kenin, Wang, Alexandrova, Burel and Svitolina.

GL to you all!

Fancy Isner to shade the USA clash so doubling the early matches.

Win
Hurkacz + Isner 2/1

and expect the old guys to hang tough and make the youngsters work

Over 3.5 sets double
Murray + Wawrinka @ 27/20

Thanks guys and I share your same opinion about the old guys making the young ones work tonight Vann. So adding to your double and making it a treble:

Over 3.5 sets:
Murray + Wawrinka + Monfils - 36/10

Nicolas Jarry vs Alex Michelsen

Michelsen recently turned pro after reaching the Newport final. The youngster is talented, but he is obviously inexperienced.
Jarry is in the midst of by far his best season on tour and he will probably be able to take this.

Bet: Jarry -2.5 @1.85

Alcaraz vs Harris

Harris has a good serve and he uses it well to win points.

Alcaraz is the big favourite here, but Harris can take at least one set to extra time, especially that Alcaraz has had some longer matches recently, and not necessarily in finals.

Bet: Over 30.5 games @1.85

US Open day 5:

Many matches again, but I struggle to find value…
-Muchova is great but Townsend has had 2 very good rounds, has big weapons and if she’s on, she can hit through. No good read.
-can’t read form about any of the Chinese players so dropping those too.
-good luck finding value in Swiatek’s matches
-I like Brady and she has big weapons. She’s been away on injury for a long time, but I still think she can at least take a set off Woz, who’s only just coming out of retirement and should need a few more tourneys to adjust. 1.42 for Brady +1.5 sets.
-Gauff’s odds are way too short to do anything with. I still think she won’t win it all though.
-I suspect Rybakina is injured. I think Cirstea can take a set off her, and at 1.92 I’m having some of that.
-TP has had 2 difficult rounds and ADF 2 very easy ones. Opposition level was way different though. I’ll take some ADF +2.5 sets at 1.21.
-I like Shelton but he’s still young and a little immature in his playing style. Karatsev is no mug and he should be good enough for at least a set or two, maybe even the match. Karatsev +2.5 sets at 1.25 for me.
-Tiafoe is defending SF points from last year and Mannarino is paying with house money, and can make things awkward for almost anyone. Foe should take it, but no bet.
-Stricker has 5 wins on the trot, some of them very good. He’s talented but hasn’t properly shone through yet. Bonzi is underrated and was injured the last 3-4 months. Big opportunity for both players to get to a Slam R4 here. Over 3.5 sets is the bet at 1.47.
-Mensik is one of the guys for the generation after Alcaraz. He should become very very good. But he meets Fritz here, so that should be the end of him. Enjoy the game, no bet.
-Djoko meets Djere. No bet, but Djere is playing very well of late, so he could push Djoko (which is nice, since Djoko is on an almost empty highway path to the final). No bet.

Cirstea/ADF 2.32 2U
Bonzi/Brady/Karatsev 2.60 2U

GL to you all!

Posting tomorrow’s card already, won’t have time later:

-I think Draper rolls Mmoh. He’s very good and he seems in shape. I’ll use him in a parlay. I still would advise against it if you have a book that doesn’t void in case of retirement though.
- Alcaraz is gonna steam past Evans, but 3-0 pays 1.36 so no thanks.
- I’ll continue to fade Norrie.
- I’ll use Rublev ML in a parlay
-Sinner should win vs Wawrinka but the odds are beaten to a pulp.
-I believe Zverev owns Dimitrov and wins fairly easily. ML is good at 1.47
-no read whatsoever on women.

Rublev+AZ+Draper (2.44)

GL to you all!

Alcaraz vs Evans 3-0
Medvedev vs Baez 3-0

Double @2.49

This US Open I going great so far.
All men’s matches are one-sided betting wise today.
Djoko will win, probably 3-0, as Gojo isn’t as good as Djere. I might use that in a parlay. The 3 others are unreadable. Fritz is on my fade list, but he’s meeting an unheralded player. I doubt all favourites will win, but I’m not betting on that.
Popcorn matches for women with Woz-Gauff and Penko-Swiatek.
I’m not sure Woz can do anything here, but Gauff is on my fade list, so I’m not getting involved.
Penko is Swiatek’s nemesis thus far, owning her 3-0 H2H (2-0 on hard). Penko to win a set is at 2.95 and that could seem great value. But she’s had 3 sloppy rounds to get here and I’m not sure she can allow that tonight. Of course she can hit through from the baseline, but playing at night the court will be slower and this year’s courts look like they’re a little slower than usual, and all that favours Swiatek. Iga 2-0 is very low at 1.4. I can’t pull the trigger on either.

Tomorrow’s slate isn’t inspiring any bets from me either, apart from Vondrousova. She’s stellar and still a little underrated by the market. She’s meeting a player with no major weapons, who’s done well to get to R4 but hasn’t met anyone of quality. 2-0 is at 1.62, I’ll take that.

I’m gonna bet Vondrousova 2-0 (tomorrow’s slate) with Djoko 3-0, at 2.20.

GL!

Zverev vs Sinner

Both players are in good form here.
Zverev leads H2H, but all those matches were before his injury.
Zverev is on his way up now, not sure he's got where he used to be yet, but Sinner is better than in the years past.

Sinner could win this and it should be an entertaining one.

Bet: Total over 39.5 games @1.89.

US Open QF thoughts:

Penko-Gauff:
Penko is having a great tourney, she’s blowing everyone out of the water, and she’s still underrated by the market, but that’s mainly due to her inconstancy. Gauff is having a great US summer and could be on the path to something big here. I’m still not sold on her, I think maybe the pressure might take her at some point.
H2H is 1-1. I like Penko to win a set at 1.8.

Fritz-Djoko
Djoko owns Fritz 7-0 (4-0 on hc).
Fritz is having a decent US tour but he hasn’t met anyone of rank, apart from Djoko who trounced him in Cincinnati. It’s hard to give Fritz any credit here. The heavy humidity could play a factor, and Djoko hasn’t played in the day time is this conditions for a while, but the man is a beast. He wins this.

Cirstea-Muchova
Two very likeable players having both a very good year so far. Muchova leads the H2H 3-1, all recently on hard, but all matches were tightly won. I’m leaning Muchova but I can’t pull the trigger at 1.5. No bet

Tiafoe-Shelton
These two have never met. Shelton is a bit of a puzzle, as he can’t seem to win two matches in a row at any tournament aside Grand Slam (QF at AO and here). He’s spectacular and (very) loud and the crowd loves him. He’s a lefty with a huge serve and he’s fearless, especially with the lead.
Tiafoe is more seasoned and was in the SF here last year. He’s very similar to Shelton in a way, with great power and energy.
They’re quite evenly matched even though I’m leaning Tiafoe, and players have a tendency to got walkabout for patches of time, so I’m liking the over 3.5 sets at 1.52.

Alcaraz-Zverev
AZ leads the H2H 3-2 but tbh none of these is really relevant.
Alcaraz is the defending champ, and whatever happens he’ll be number 2 after the open, 2.000 points behind Djoko. That shouldn’t affect him, as he has almost no points to defend until February of next year, so plenty of time to catch up. All he wants here is the title, and he’s got a hard path to it, trying to defeat AZ, then Meds/Rublev, before (likely) taking on Djoko in the final.
He hasn’t shown any good form this summer, and here he’s been challenged more than expected by average players.
AZ had a very tough battle vs Sinner in R16, almost cramping at some point to win it after nearly 5hrs of play.
He’s had a dreadful draw so far but has come through with class. I’m not sure how much he’s got left in the tank at this point and any outright ticket holder on AZ (like yours truly) is now going to any church lighting candles…
I’m definitely not sold on Alcaraz, but I can’t read AZ’s physical condition, so no bet from me.

Medvedev-Rublev
Meds leads the H2H 6-2, all on hard court.
They’re best friends, they know each other too well and so Meds has Rublev’s number. I would actually think they’re pretty evenly matched, but the H2H is telling something else, on top of which Rublev’s attitude on court is at times suicidal. I don’t think this goes 5 sets, but Rublev taking at least one set is only 1.35, Meds ML is 1.4, so I’ll pass.

Vondrousova-Keys
Vondrousova pulled out of doubles in dramatic fashion. Rumour has it she’s injured, so I’m not sure she shows up for this, or she can fight properly if she does show up. No bet

Zheng-Sabalenka
Kicking myself for not betting Zheng vs Jabeur at great odds. No me she meets the new nr.1 player in the world.
Zheng is very good, she likes to take the ball early, steal time from opponents and stay on the offensive. She meets here someone who likes to do the same, but hits better and harder than anyone Zheng has met so far. Zheng will have to defend a lot and I don’t think she’s up for that. Sabalenka takes this.

Djoko ml / Penko +1.5 sets @ 2.08 1U
Djoko ml / Tiafoe o3.5 sets / Saba ml @2.29 1U

GL to you all!

Coco Gauff vs Jelena Ostapenko

Ostapenko has played eight three-set matches in a row, four at the US Open.
Three of Gauff’s four matches so far have required a third set.
The first H2H meeting between Gauff and Ostapenko went the distance and their 2023 Australian Open encounter also went over this 20.5 number (7-5 6-3).

Bet: Over 20.5 games @1.77

Shelton + Muchova @ 11/3 for the Late Night watch

Ostapenko, unbelievable what a poor match!

Shelton vs Tiafoe over 3.5 sets + Muchova @2.20

Medvedev + Sabalenka @1.75

Sabalenka 2-0 @1.83

Alcaraz vs Zverev

Carlos Alcaraz has become a dominant player on all surfaces, not only on clay.
He appeared to be very motivated here.

Zverev is also in good form, but he's coming after an exhausting 5 hour match against Sinner.
While Alcaraz would have been the favourite between these two anyway, the physical factor will come into picture too.

I'm going for the fresher and, after all, the better player.

Alcaraz 3-0 @2.37

Well done Quill, on a 4-bet winning streak!
And well done The Vann for the Gauff outright pick, I didn’t think she’d make it that far.

Here are my thoughts for the semis:

Gauff-Muchova
They just met in Cincy with Gauff winning 6-3 6-4 but the score line was a little deceiving as the match was well tighter. Gauff is playing great here even if she’s had a few hard matches. Muchova has had a much easier path to the semis but she’s beaten her opponents well. I wanted to bet Muchova based on value, but the recent encounter puts me off that. Over 2.5 sets is at 2.5, I’ll get some. 1U

Keys-Sabalenka
US tennis can get two female players and one male player in the final here. They must be pumped.
Keys has been trucking everyone on her path (good players) as she can do sometimes. She’s a great ball striker, and she’s beaten Sabalenka before.
Sabalenka is now guaranteed to be nr.1 on the world and is having a stellar year.
I still think they’re pretty evenly matched
Over 2.5 sets is at 2.55, I’ll have a nibble at that. 1U.

Alcaraz-Medvedev
H2H 2-1, but latest on grass and in March they met in IW, which is a very slow hard court.
Alcaraz ran over AZ in the QF but I’m not sure how much we should read into that, given AZ ‘s tough battle in R4.
He’s had a little rocky path up to here despite playing average appontents, and his summer hasn’t been great thus far. Maybe he’s just keeping something under his belt for some final showdown with Djoko, but he still needs to beat Meds here.
I believe Alcaraz is a bad match up for Meds, as he can steal time from him and finish points at the net. As I mentioned I’m not super sold on Alcaraz’ form but I still think he can win in 3 or 4 sets. Carlos -1.5 sets is at 1.61, I’ll go 2U on that.

Djoko-Shelton
The US darling is having the run of his young career so far, and in front of his home crowd. He’s a lefty with a massive serve and explosive forehand and he’s got a slight unpredictability to him that makes him fun to watch. Being new to the tour, he obviously hasn’t met all players yet, and he’s been introduced to the best of them all here, on the biggest stage.
I don’t think the kid is gonna come in impressed or terrified by the whole setting so he’ll be on and ready from the start.
Djoko on the other hand has seen it all and he’s well aware that the crowd won’t be with him and that the kid needs to be tamed early on.
I can see a match where Shelton is pumped from the first point and it takes a few games for Djoko to adjust. If everything goes Shelton’s way he can steal the first set, and ride slightly the momentum into the 2nd, but Djoko will eventually trounce him in 4, something like 6-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2. Or maybe Djoko takes the first in a hard fought battle and runs away with it, with Shelton a little discouraged by giving it his all but still going home empty after the 1st, something like 7-6, 6-2, 6-1.
Shelton 1st is at 4.8, Djoko to lose the 1st and win the match is at 5, Djoko to win 3-0 is at 1.66 and Djoko -7.5 games is at 1.85.
I think Djoko gives the kid a lesson, and I prefer the games hcap.
2U at 1.85.

Whatever happens, there will be no bet from me for the finals, as I’ll be fully focused on the RWC, so enjoy the end of the tourney, and GL to you all!

Laokai wrote: Well done Quill, on a 4-bet winning streak!
And well done The Vann for the Gauff outright pick, I didn’t think she’d make it that far.

Here are my thoughts for the semis:

Gauff-Muchova
They just met in Cincy with Gauff winning 6-3 6-4 but the score line was a little deceiving as the match was well tighter. Gauff is playing great here even if she’s had a few hard matches. Muchova has had a much easier path to the semis but she’s beaten her opponents well. I wanted to bet Muchova based on value, but the recent encounter puts me off that. Over 2.5 sets is at 2.5, I’ll get some. 1U

Keys-Sabalenka
US tennis can get two female players and one male player in the final here. They must be pumped.
Keys has been trucking everyone on her path (good players) as she can do sometimes. She’s a great ball striker, and she’s beaten Sabalenka before.
Sabalenka is now guaranteed to be nr.1 on the world and is having a stellar year.
I still think they’re pretty evenly matched
Over 2.5 sets is at 2.55, I’ll have a nibble at that. 1U.

...

I like both of these at over 2.5 sets and I'll take them too.

Gauff + Sabalenka @2.04

Quill on a roll and has probably called the winning double. I'm going for Keys in the late match as I think the odds are too long for a hometown favorite in front of a raucous crowd in the late evening match

Gauff/Keys @ 38/10

Nice double on the ladies Quill.

On the gents I expect a significant number of spectators wishing they had not forked over huge piles of dollars for tickets. Who are they going to shout for? The Russian or the Unvaccinated?

Medvedev v Djokovic

I have started wondering about Djokovic since that Wimbledon loss. I know his dad has said he should consider calling it a day. In this tournament he has only faced one player inside the top 30. That was Fritz who has been Djoko's bunny since day one. Only two opponents were in the top 50. Djere gave him a good run and I thought Shelton was just starting to work out the Djokovic game in that third set. Medvedev has won here before and he seems happier with the new balls now. For my money odds should be around evens and 8/10. Gladly taking

Win Medvedev @ 2/1

and a case of the good stuff

Medvedev 3-1 @ 7/1

Been a good tournament with excellent betting from all you gents. Well done Vann on that Gauff outright bet, she was brilliant fighting back after that first set.

I was also shocked to see Djok at around 4/10 to win tonight. Medvedev knows how to beat him and especially on a big stage like this at the 2021 US Open final. I saw some 21/10 on Medvedev and will have a strike on him. Theres plenty of value in him tonight and his playing at the top of his game atm.

Hopefully the crowd have some heat for him tonight and then I will be even more confident in the pick. Medvedev seems to thrive of a negative crowd, probably a Russian thing.

Also adding an additional bet, the courts are not the fastest this year but since I am expecting a long battle between these two I think the Djok aces line is a betting opportunity. Djok has had 5+ aces in all his matches so far.

Djokovic over 4.5 aces - 9/10

I agree with Vann's analysis.

Djokovic has not been tested here. He was lucky again to have an easy draw.
Medvedev on the other hand has peaked at the right time. Also, he knows how to beat Djokovic.

I think that the odds are too big for Medvedev to win this.
The odds on Djoko to win are ridiculously small, as if he's playing someone outside top 10. Medvedev is up there with the best and he can trouble Djokovic.

Hopefully he'll win.

Bet: Medvedev @2.87