Vuelta a Espana 2023

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10 months 1 week ago #1 by The Vann
Vuelta a Espana 2023 was created by The Vann
The final Grand Tour starts on 26 August and we have a stellar field. The route is mostly in the north of Spain so expect a warm race. There are 8 mountain top finishes with only one flat 25km ITT. The first stage is a 14.6km TTT.

OUTRIGHTS
Not going large here as we already have the first w/d because of a positive Covid test - Thijssen of Wanty.

There are comfortably over 6 breakaway stages so I am interested in the - To win a stage market.
My three picks are Zana - 3rd and 1st from breakaways at the Giro this year and Battistella - two 2nds and a 6th from breakaways in last years Vuelta and Denz who is a multiple break maker in Grand Tours.


None of my books are offering Battistella so no bet. I see he is 7/2 in the free market countries. I would take this.

Zana is 5/2 which is a little short so I am taking the bet as follows

Any rider to win a stage from team Jayco Alula - Yes @ 2/1

To win a stage Denz Yes @ 9/2


On the various jersey markets I am leaning Almeida podium. Currently 9/2 but I think it may go out after the TTT as he could lose 30+ seconds on day one. Would like to see something longer then 5/1
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10 months 1 week ago #2 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Looking forward to this race and will be writing previews for the WSB Blog which we also carry on GFTG

Outright Preview

Stage 1 TTT


Take the Roglic outright with a pinch of salt for now - it is a small play as I am looking to take Vingegaard on

As for todays stage with some rain about it could a lottery and I have gone with 0.25 units on EF and Bora at 66/1

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10 months 1 week ago - 10 months 1 week ago #3 by The Vann
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Stage 1

Agree with Brent. Not sure this is a big power course and a little rain would level the playing field.

To win
Jumbo/Ineos or any other Not placed. Several teams more then I saw originally.

Also a double on teams with close starting slots

Jumbo/Ineos into Soudal Quick Step/UAE 23/10

Have taken

e/w
EF Education @ 66/1 as they start earliest of the teams with some chance
Last edit: 10 months 1 week ago by The Vann.

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10 months 6 days ago #4 by The Vann
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Start with a little nest egg thanks to the 8/1 place by under 1 second yesterday.

Stage 2
Agree with Brent's write up re GC finish and the castle climb too hard for Coquard and his fellow sprinters. Van den Berg may just get there in which case he wins but I'm going with Remco on the basis he beat my in-play Bilbao bet in a straight sprint in San Sebastian

Win
Evenepoel @ 8/1

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10 months 6 days ago #5 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Nice one Vann!

Lads I just dont see how Remco can beat Primoz in a sprint - Roglic is the master at the uphill explosive effort. Usually too short but reckon as its the 2nd stage and break should have no shot I will take the 9/4.

Also a little nibble on Buitrago at 33/1 just in case.

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10 months 5 days ago #6 by The Vann
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If there was any honour amongst Books - laughs hysterically - they would refund all bets on the Vuelta today.

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10 months 5 days ago #7 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Vuelta been a bit of a joke so far

Hopefully we get a proper stage today

I honestly have no clue and throwing darts at

Storer 25/1 and Elissonde 50/1

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10 months 5 days ago #8 by The Vann
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Stage 3
Another dodgy weather forecast with 70km per hour winds and possible rain on the descent. Would have taken a full run at the match bets but decided probably wise to skip.

Win
Poels @ 80/1

e/w 1-3
Thomas @ 80/1
Godon @ 750/1

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10 months 4 days ago #9 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Great win from Remco but how about the crash at the end? That could of been alot worse

I have persuaded WSB to introduce the Money back for 2nd promo and so today Groves at 11/10 is the play

Far from a straight forward sprint stage though

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10 months 4 days ago #10 by The Vann
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Stage 4
A large chunk of winning at the top level is about mental toughness and an absolute refusal to accept defeat. The "Little Bastard" as Thomas laughingly refers to him has this in spades. Todays finish looks like a sharp bend 500m out followed by a rise around 5% then flat to the line. I see no reason why Casper Pedersen can't give him a 30-50m lead and drop him off 150m or so from the line. Will he try? Bet your socks he will

e/w 1-3
Evenepoel @ 66/1

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10 months 4 days ago #11 by The Vann
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Stage 4
In view of Brent's deal making skills I have added

M van den Berg @ 13/2

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10 months 3 days ago #12 by The Vann
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Nice pick Groves Brent. Disappointed that Remco did not have a dig. Maybe not fully recovered from crash. Today is a wide open road finish so has to be sprinters only.

Stage 5

Should really lump the lot on Groves but, in cycling, the lot is not much dosh so going

e/w
Dainese @ 8/1 Was nowhere in sight yesterday but is better on the wide finishes

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10 months 3 days ago #13 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Cheers Vann, I think that technical finish also could of put Remco off

I like Groves again today at 1/1 at WSB as make him a top 2 banker if there is a sprint

I think the break has a small chance today though and have nibbled on

Godon at 100/1
and Bissegger at 150/1 (may get in break if Van Den Berg not 100% after crash)

Reason I think break has a chance is EF may not work and Groves team must have some tired riders after yesterday

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10 months 2 days ago #14 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Groves does the business but was smalls on him so basically a square stage

There should be a strong break today and I reckon it sticks

Backed Kamna at 10/1 and also taking some 18/1 he wins the KOM

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10 months 2 days ago #15 by The Vann
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Nice Brent. I should take a break with my Jayco long term tanking yesterday when Dunbar fell in the friggen neutral zone and Zana departed with the runs (Same happened to my Zampa cricket bet yesterday). Besides everything turning into crap my main bet - the 1-3 sees Dainese finish 4th. Go figure

Stage 6

Win
Evenepoel @ 8/1
Kamna @ 10/1
e/w
Battistella @ 150/1

Match bet double
Thomas/Cras - Uijtderbroeks/Arensman @ 5/2
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10 months 1 day ago - 10 months 1 day ago #16 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Threw a beer or two at the following in-play 80km to go

Martinez @ 10/1
Poels @ 40/1
Valter @ 80/1
Last edit: 10 months 1 day ago by The Vann.

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10 months 1 day ago #17 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Stiff Vann, sounds like a stage that would have been good to watch from the start

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10 months 1 day ago #18 by The Vann
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Stage 8
Finish up a mountain where Alla won a few years ago from a break. Looks like another break today so a darts day

Win
Poels @ 50/1
Battistella @ 80/1
e/w
Moniquet @ 150/1
Castroviejo @ 200/1
Godon @ 400/1

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10 months 5 hours ago #19 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Interesting stage yesterday

I took 14/1 Remco in running and the bugger does all the work and comes 2nd claiming he didn't know the sprint was for the stage win

Was very impressed the way he rode that final climb keeping the 3 JV and UAE riders in check

Today is the day Egan Bernal returns and I have taken 40/1 and 25/1 Lazkano (was 66/1 when I wrote preview but moved straight away across all books so had nothing to do with the preview and Bernal was not quoted)

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10 months 3 hours ago #20 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Not sure why Jumbo rode down the break. Only ended up giving Evenepoel a few bonus seconds over Kuss and Vingegaard. Would still have taken red if they allowed the break to stick.

Stage 9
Sticking with my first week favorites for the last stage before the rest day.

e/w
Battistella @ 150/1
Sobrero @ 150/1
Godon @ 400/1

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10 months 2 hours ago #21 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
I think Jumbo were planning to win the stage and put time into the contenders but in the end had to settle for the stage

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9 months 4 weeks ago - 9 months 4 weeks ago #22 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
The 40/1 place on Sunday meant we virtually broke even on the first week.

Stage 10
Always difficult to know who will ride 100% in the ITT. I know Caruso is probably looking at KOM but his team lie just over four minutes back in the team comp so hoping he gives it gas today.

Match bet double
Caruso/Kamna - Ayuso/Almeida @ 11/4 (Site switched to decimals when placing. Odds are 7/4)
Last edit: 9 months 4 weeks ago by The Vann.

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9 months 4 weeks ago #23 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Beer on Cattaneo @40/1 hoping he can top 3

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9 months 3 weeks ago #24 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Small plays

Ganna 100/1
Ellisonde 125/1 for stage 11

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9 months 3 weeks ago - 9 months 3 weeks ago #25 by kcmarinopirlo
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Hoping Jumbo Free Tratnik for Stage 11

400/1

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Last edit: 9 months 3 weeks ago by kcmarinopirlo.

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9 months 3 weeks ago #26 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Disappointed with the match bet yesterday. Fortunately did not go overboard with the stake which I do occasionally on ITT's.

Stage 11

Darts for me Win only
Evenepoel @ 10/1
Gregoire @ 18/1
Herrada @ 66/1

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9 months 3 weeks ago #27 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Brilliant on Herrada Vann well played

Bloody Ineos backed the wrong horse there - Thomas looks awful and reckon Ganna should have gone before the climb

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9 months 3 weeks ago #28 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
I like Lotto Dstny and they need the points but I was not a Kron fan over the last 100m yesterday. Thankfully one of my picks scraped in.

Stage 12
As far as I can determine there is no sharp bend in the last km. I do fancy this guy has a stage win in him but he just loses half a dozen places around any bend on the run in so maybe today's finish will suit.

Win
Dainese @ 10/1

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9 months 3 weeks ago #29 by The Vann
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Poor day for me across all sports yesterday.

Stage 13
Normally the kind of stage I would take a run at but it looks way too much like Jumbo will decide who will win the stage. In a straight race Vingegaard wins today but they will take Kuss and Roglic before him if they are ahead of the main GC guys. Reminds me of the Williams sisters in tennis. Their father decided who would win the tournament.

Going for a double hoping that if Poels makes the break then so does Thomas.

Thomas/Poels - Roglic/Ayuso @ 5/2

and the only rider I think capable of crashing the Jumbo party

1-3
Almeida @ 6/1

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9 months 3 weeks ago #30 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Not enjoying the Vuelta this year. I don't like the comms but worse is the dominance of 1 team. The best riders in the word should be racing each other not racing with each other

Will still have a couple of punts though

Hirt at 33/1
Bernal; at 40/1

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9 months 3 weeks ago #31 by The Vann
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Agree it is disappointing having one team dominate. No idea what happened to Almeida yesterday but his problem started on the very first climb so must be slightly under the weather.

Stage 14
Get the whole stage again today so may have an in-play dig. Starting with

Win
Herrada @ 40/1
e/w
Castroveijo @ 150/1

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9 months 3 weeks ago #32 by The Vann
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Another close shave yesterday with the Castroveijo place at 35/1 missing by one.

Stage 15
Lumpy bumpy and probably a little too difficult for the pure sprinters with the Cat 2 at the end so taking a few darts on the break

Win only
Ganna @ 16/1
Gregoire @ 22/1
Denz @ 33/1
Herrogodts @ 50/1

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9 months 3 weeks ago #33 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Cheers Vann, Ganna and Kron for me today

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9 months 3 weeks ago #34 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Vuelta Rest Day

Strangely there are two markets which interest me today.
Jumbo via Seb have confirmed that he will win if he can stay the distance. He has always made it clear he is not a GC Leader so can he hang on for a week in the mountains? I think the legs may but the brain will decline and Jumbo will have to go with Vingegaard. The other mental problem is Remco who will pull if he cannot compete hence the loss of 25odd minutes on one stage. With no chance of winning I expect him to race to the KOM jersey and make big in roads into the Top 10 times.

Win the Vuelta
Vingegaard @ 10/3

Finish Top 10
Evenepoel @ 5/1

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9 months 3 weeks ago #35 by The Vann
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Stage 16

With the stage being short I am not sure there is enough road for the break to build a big enough lead to win. Hoping that Jumbo will wish to save as much energy as possible for tomorrows stage which could see attacks on Kuss thereby giving today's break a realistic chance. Very similar profile to stage 11 so sticking with

Win
Gregoire @ 22/1
Herrada @ 25/1

Have loaded this match bet double coupon but am unsure so will decide at very last minute. May only go a beer or so

Vingegaard/Kuss - Almeida/Soler @ 9/4

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9 months 2 weeks ago #36 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
That Vingegaard play looking pretty tasty after today Vann

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9 months 2 weeks ago #37 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Massive pressure on Jumbo to engineer a Kuss win. I just do not believe he has the mental fortitude to win a Grand Tour. On one of the next few stages Mas and/or Ayuso are heading up the road and Jumbo will have to follow. I live in hope. Poor read on the Evenepoel objectives though.

I also wonder if Groves is not spending way too much energy collecting points at the intermediate sprints. He runs out of gas and that Evenepoel outright could sneak in by default.

Stage 17
One for me today and it carry's a full cycling bet

Vlasov over Landa @ 16/10

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9 months 2 weeks ago #38 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
No idea what happened to Vlasov yesterday. Was in form and on a climb he liked and then clutched. Weight of The Vann's money I presume.

Stage 18
Looks like the last stage for a solid strike but I find myself short on enthusiasm for this Vuelta so just a few beers for the day.

Joining Brent on Bardet and adding

Win
Soler @ 25/1
e/w
Hamilton @ 150/1

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9 months 2 weeks ago #39 by The Vann
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Taken a few beers - not on riders who looked good yesterday but more against a couple who looked cooked


Mas/Ayuso - Cras/Vlasov @ 9/2

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9 months 2 weeks ago #40 by The Vann
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Stage 19
Played him nearly every sprint. Not giving up now (Yep Dumb logic)

Win
Dainese @ 8/1

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9 months 2 weeks ago #41 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Vann you beauty!

I couldnt watch, what happened to Groves?

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9 months 2 weeks ago #42 by The Vann
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Brent Graham wrote: Vann you beauty!

I couldnt watch, what happened to Groves?


Thanks. Groves lead out switched lines and collected back wheel of EF rider. Came down and took out Groves. Groves managed a quality dismount and landed on his feet so no harm done but could not participate in the sprint.

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9 months 2 weeks ago #43 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Cheers Vann

Roglic is 20/1 at Betx and I have just backed him - reckon Jumbo keep break on a leash and bring it back to placate Pimoz

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9 months 2 weeks ago #44 by The Vann
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Stage 20

Probably a lock for Evenepoel so a few darts. Most of the stake on those two podiums

Win
Herrada @ 40/1

e/w
De Gendt @ 150/1
Castroveijo @ 200/1

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9 months 2 weeks ago #45 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Got Lenny Martinez last night @400/1

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9 months 2 weeks ago - 9 months 2 weeks ago #46 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a Espana 2023
Been a frustrating Vuelta with a few riders choosing not to ride to their potential for a variety of reasons. Could just imagine the the hullabaloo should Medvedev chuck a major semi in favor of his long time friend and godfather to one of his kids Rublev. Pity Raymand Poulidor was not riding today. Instead of being the eternal second riders would have been forced into gifting him a few tours. There should be no place in professional sport for "Gifting" wins to someone.

Stage 21

Win
Molano @ 11/2

had hopes for a podium from this guy. He still has his full team here so maybe today

1-3
Menten @ 9/1
Last edit: 9 months 2 weeks ago by The Vann.

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