Vuelta a Espana 2023
- The Vann
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OUTRIGHTS
Not going large here as we already have the first w/d because of a positive Covid test - Thijssen of Wanty.
There are comfortably over 6 breakaway stages so I am interested in the - To win a stage market.
My three picks are Zana - 3rd and 1st from breakaways at the Giro this year and Battistella - two 2nds and a 6th from breakaways in last years Vuelta and Denz who is a multiple break maker in Grand Tours.
None of my books are offering Battistella so no bet. I see he is 7/2 in the free market countries. I would take this.
Zana is 5/2 which is a little short so I am taking the bet as follows
Any rider to win a stage from team Jayco Alula - Yes @ 2/1
To win a stage Denz Yes @ 9/2
On the various jersey markets I am leaning Almeida podium. Currently 9/2 but I think it may go out after the TTT as he could lose 30+ seconds on day one. Would like to see something longer then 5/1
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- Brent Graham
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Outright Preview
Stage 1 TTT
Take the Roglic outright with a pinch of salt for now - it is a small play as I am looking to take Vingegaard on
As for todays stage with some rain about it could a lottery and I have gone with 0.25 units on EF and Bora at 66/1
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- The Vann
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Agree with Brent. Not sure this is a big power course and a little rain would level the playing field.
To win
Jumbo/Ineos or any other Not placed. Several teams more then I saw originally.
Also a double on teams with close starting slots
Jumbo/Ineos into Soudal Quick Step/UAE 23/10
Have taken
e/w
EF Education @ 66/1 as they start earliest of the teams with some chance
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Stage 2
Agree with Brent's write up re GC finish and the castle climb too hard for Coquard and his fellow sprinters. Van den Berg may just get there in which case he wins but I'm going with Remco on the basis he beat my in-play Bilbao bet in a straight sprint in San Sebastian
Win
Evenepoel @ 8/1
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- Couch Critic
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Lads I just dont see how Remco can beat Primoz in a sprint - Roglic is the master at the uphill explosive effort. Usually too short but reckon as its the 2nd stage and break should have no shot I will take the 9/4.
Also a little nibble on Buitrago at 33/1 just in case.
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- Brent Graham
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Hopefully we get a proper stage today
I honestly have no clue and throwing darts at
Storer 25/1 and Elissonde 50/1
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Another dodgy weather forecast with 70km per hour winds and possible rain on the descent. Would have taken a full run at the match bets but decided probably wise to skip.
Win
Poels @ 80/1
e/w 1-3
Thomas @ 80/1
Godon @ 750/1
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- Brent Graham
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I have persuaded WSB to introduce the Money back for 2nd promo and so today Groves at 11/10 is the play
Far from a straight forward sprint stage though
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- The Vann
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A large chunk of winning at the top level is about mental toughness and an absolute refusal to accept defeat. The "Little Bastard" as Thomas laughingly refers to him has this in spades. Todays finish looks like a sharp bend 500m out followed by a rise around 5% then flat to the line. I see no reason why Casper Pedersen can't give him a 30-50m lead and drop him off 150m or so from the line. Will he try? Bet your socks he will
e/w 1-3
Evenepoel @ 66/1
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- The Vann
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In view of Brent's deal making skills I have added
M van den Berg @ 13/2
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Stage 5
Should really lump the lot on Groves but, in cycling, the lot is not much dosh so going
e/w
Dainese @ 8/1 Was nowhere in sight yesterday but is better on the wide finishes
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- Brent Graham
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I like Groves again today at 1/1 at WSB as make him a top 2 banker if there is a sprint
I think the break has a small chance today though and have nibbled on
Godon at 100/1
and Bissegger at 150/1 (may get in break if Van Den Berg not 100% after crash)
Reason I think break has a chance is EF may not work and Groves team must have some tired riders after yesterday
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- Brent Graham
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There should be a strong break today and I reckon it sticks
Backed Kamna at 10/1 and also taking some 18/1 he wins the KOM
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Stage 6
Win
Evenepoel @ 8/1
Kamna @ 10/1
e/w
Battistella @ 150/1
Match bet double
Thomas/Cras - Uijtderbroeks/Arensman @ 5/2
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Martinez @ 10/1
Poels @ 40/1
Valter @ 80/1
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Finish up a mountain where Alla won a few years ago from a break. Looks like another break today so a darts day
Win
Poels @ 50/1
Battistella @ 80/1
e/w
Moniquet @ 150/1
Castroviejo @ 200/1
Godon @ 400/1
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- Brent Graham
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I took 14/1 Remco in running and the bugger does all the work and comes 2nd claiming he didn't know the sprint was for the stage win
Was very impressed the way he rode that final climb keeping the 3 JV and UAE riders in check
Today is the day Egan Bernal returns and I have taken 40/1 and 25/1 Lazkano (was 66/1 when I wrote preview but moved straight away across all books so had nothing to do with the preview and Bernal was not quoted)
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Stage 9
Sticking with my first week favorites for the last stage before the rest day.
e/w
Battistella @ 150/1
Sobrero @ 150/1
Godon @ 400/1
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Stage 10
Always difficult to know who will ride 100% in the ITT. I know Caruso is probably looking at KOM but his team lie just over four minutes back in the team comp so hoping he gives it gas today.
Match bet double
Caruso/Kamna - Ayuso/Almeida @ 11/4 (Site switched to decimals when placing. Odds are 7/4)
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- kcmarinopirlo
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- Brent Graham
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Ganna 100/1
Ellisonde 125/1 for stage 11
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Hoping Jumbo Free Tratnik for Stage 11
400/1
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Stage 11
Darts for me Win only
Evenepoel @ 10/1
Gregoire @ 18/1
Herrada @ 66/1
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- Brent Graham
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Bloody Ineos backed the wrong horse there - Thomas looks awful and reckon Ganna should have gone before the climb
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Stage 12
As far as I can determine there is no sharp bend in the last km. I do fancy this guy has a stage win in him but he just loses half a dozen places around any bend on the run in so maybe today's finish will suit.
Win
Dainese @ 10/1
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Stage 13
Normally the kind of stage I would take a run at but it looks way too much like Jumbo will decide who will win the stage. In a straight race Vingegaard wins today but they will take Kuss and Roglic before him if they are ahead of the main GC guys. Reminds me of the Williams sisters in tennis. Their father decided who would win the tournament.
Going for a double hoping that if Poels makes the break then so does Thomas.
Thomas/Poels - Roglic/Ayuso @ 5/2
and the only rider I think capable of crashing the Jumbo party
1-3
Almeida @ 6/1
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- Brent Graham
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Will still have a couple of punts though
Hirt at 33/1
Bernal; at 40/1
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Stage 14
Get the whole stage again today so may have an in-play dig. Starting with
Win
Herrada @ 40/1
e/w
Castroveijo @ 150/1
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Stage 15
Lumpy bumpy and probably a little too difficult for the pure sprinters with the Cat 2 at the end so taking a few darts on the break
Win only
Ganna @ 16/1
Gregoire @ 22/1
Denz @ 33/1
Herrogodts @ 50/1
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- The Vann
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Strangely there are two markets which interest me today.
Jumbo via Seb have confirmed that he will win if he can stay the distance. He has always made it clear he is not a GC Leader so can he hang on for a week in the mountains? I think the legs may but the brain will decline and Jumbo will have to go with Vingegaard. The other mental problem is Remco who will pull if he cannot compete hence the loss of 25odd minutes on one stage. With no chance of winning I expect him to race to the KOM jersey and make big in roads into the Top 10 times.
Win the Vuelta
Vingegaard @ 10/3
Finish Top 10
Evenepoel @ 5/1
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With the stage being short I am not sure there is enough road for the break to build a big enough lead to win. Hoping that Jumbo will wish to save as much energy as possible for tomorrows stage which could see attacks on Kuss thereby giving today's break a realistic chance. Very similar profile to stage 11 so sticking with
Win
Gregoire @ 22/1
Herrada @ 25/1
Have loaded this match bet double coupon but am unsure so will decide at very last minute. May only go a beer or so
Vingegaard/Kuss - Almeida/Soler @ 9/4
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I also wonder if Groves is not spending way too much energy collecting points at the intermediate sprints. He runs out of gas and that Evenepoel outright could sneak in by default.
Stage 17
One for me today and it carry's a full cycling bet
Vlasov over Landa @ 16/10
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Stage 18
Looks like the last stage for a solid strike but I find myself short on enthusiasm for this Vuelta so just a few beers for the day.
Joining Brent on Bardet and adding
Win
Soler @ 25/1
e/w
Hamilton @ 150/1
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- The Vann
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Mas/Ayuso - Cras/Vlasov @ 9/2
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Played him nearly every sprint. Not giving up now (Yep Dumb logic)
Win
Dainese @ 8/1
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- Brent Graham
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I couldnt watch, what happened to Groves?
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- The Vann
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Brent Graham wrote: Vann you beauty!
I couldnt watch, what happened to Groves?
Thanks. Groves lead out switched lines and collected back wheel of EF rider. Came down and took out Groves. Groves managed a quality dismount and landed on his feet so no harm done but could not participate in the sprint.
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- Brent Graham
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Roglic is 20/1 at Betx and I have just backed him - reckon Jumbo keep break on a leash and bring it back to placate Pimoz
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Probably a lock for Evenepoel so a few darts. Most of the stake on those two podiums
Win
Herrada @ 40/1
e/w
De Gendt @ 150/1
Castroveijo @ 200/1
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Stage 21
Win
Molano @ 11/2
had hopes for a podium from this guy. He still has his full team here so maybe today
1-3
Menten @ 9/1
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