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Cycling : The Tour de France

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4 years 9 months ago #101 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
I see Tommy dG is not in the top 20 on most boards for today - what rubbish. Should finish well inside top 10. Scrolling through the match bets would make Bernal's match up choice and Uran at around even against Mas so worth a dip at the odds.
Match bets
Bernal over Kruiswijk @ 15/10
Uran over Mas @ 13/10
and have to take a few beers on
1-3
De Gendt @ 25/1
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4 years 9 months ago #102 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Well that's it done. Haga already out of it and Lampert also to far out.

All the best with your selections guys.

Hope they come flying home.

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4 years 9 months ago #103 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Cycling : The Tour de France

The Vann wrote: I see Tommy dG is not in the top 20 on most boards for today - what rubbish. Should finish well inside top 10. Scrolling through the match bets would make Bernal's match up choice and Uran at around even against Mas so worth a dip at the odds.
Match bets
Bernal over Kruiswijk @ 15/10
Uran over Mas @ 13/10
and have to take a few beers on
1-3
De Gendt @ 25/1


Vann. 25/1 for top 3 looks great at moment. Hope you got some wins as think he will be tough to beat.

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4 years 9 months ago #104 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France

kt6747 wrote:

The Vann wrote: I see Tommy dG is not in the top 20 on most boards for today - what rubbish. Should finish well inside top 10. Scrolling through the match bets would make Bernal's match up choice and Uran at around even against Mas so worth a dip at the odds.
Match bets
Bernal over Kruiswijk @ 15/10
Uran over Mas @ 13/10
and have to take a few beers on
1-3
De Gendt @ 25/1


Vann. 25/1 for top 3 looks great at moment. Hope you got some wins as think he will be tough to beat.


Only took the 1-3. Was cursing some but pleased two guys beat him. Closest bet I've made on cycling - 0.28 seconds to 4th.

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4 years 9 months ago #105 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Thomas 2nd = my 3rd in a row - money back at least - the win is coming LOL

Unbelievable Alaphilipe
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4 years 9 months ago #106 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Great top 3 call on TdG there Vann, stiff with Thomas second Brent.

Saturday 3 guys who look overpriced each way bets

Wilco Kelderman 200/1
Xandro Meurisse150/1
Steven Kruijswijk 40/1
twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 9 months ago #107 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Today's stage will be a GC battle I think - Thomas a worthy fav and 5/1 Hollywood the best I have seen - I am hoping he is not as good as he looks though and will go with the plays below

0.5 u Mas 40/1
0.5 u Bachmann 50/1

2 u Aru/Bennett at 5/4

28 u Alaphilippe Tour Podium NO at 4/10 (had 60 units in account but only allowed to get 28 down at Sporting - pity cause I think this is put and take)
Disclaimer: Remember the Matthews bet - follow at own risk

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4 years 9 months ago #108 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Landa 10/1
Uran 40/1

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4 years 9 months ago #109 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Joining Brent on the Aru match bet and also throwing it into a double with
Porte over Landa @ 38/10
Two from GC today
Win
Pinot @ 11/2
1-3
Buchmann @ 8/1

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4 years 9 months ago #110 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Reckon there is a good chance of the big boys being together half way up the Tournalet and then a few of those with a bit of room on GC will try and have a go. I'm thinking Landa, Bardet, Zakarin, Barguil, both Martins and both UAE lads. After this its just a case of whether the Ineos steady tempo catches them back up or if one of those find some serious climbing legs.

My plays:
Zakarin @ 50/1 (taken last night)
Aru @ 50/1
Guillaume Martin @ 97/1
Twitter: @HDiemont

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4 years 9 months ago #111 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Sunbet just opened a market on stage 15. Winning margin Stage 15 - 8 seconds or less @ 5/4. Took me some of that.
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4 years 9 months ago #112 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Looked outside before first light this morning to check if it was still raining and saw an image of a Mitch Scott riding powering his way up towards the top of the Prat d'Albis alone..... it was Jack Haig (25/1). Further in the distance was Wilco Keldermann (100/1) and a way overpriced Fabio Feline (300/1)

Have reinvested the place returns from Kruijswijk's excellent ride yesterday accordingly with 3 each way bets.
twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 9 months ago #113 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Alaphilippe making a fool out of me - further thoughts in the stage 15 video below

Stage Bet:
0.5 u Haig win 25/1
1 u Pinot win at 7/1
0.5 u Keldermann 100/1

KOM:
5 units Pinot top 3 at 6/4 Sunbet
1 unit Barguil win 18/1 WSB

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4 years 9 months ago #114 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Taken another 5 units Alaphilippe Top 3 NO at 11/10 WSB

I may be remembering this TDF for all the wrong reasons
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4 years 9 months ago #115 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
For a Sunday interest -

Costa 66/1
Bardet 40/1
Ciccone 28/1

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4 years 9 months ago #116 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
The top of the final climb today is quite shallow 3% - 6% . This means a GC finish will see the guys close together hence the 8 second bet above covers all riders in the top 10 @ 5/4 and probably half of any break away scenario. Like everyone else I am keen on Haig for today ( actually sat in front of PC last night hitting refresh until TdF stage came up ). Today is also Belgium's National Day so have to add a few of them.
e/w
Haig @ 25/1
Win - My Belgium picks
De Gendt @ 33/1
Teuns @ 75/1
Meurisse @ 189/1
As the final few km's are a perfect Alaphilppe finish
Alaphilippe over Pinot @ 7/4

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4 years 9 months ago #117 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Half the field in the break and have come up empty. Taken with 120km to go
Win
Yates S @ 5/1

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4 years 9 months ago #118 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Nice in running play Vann - what a great stage and this race is wide open
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4 years 9 months ago #119 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France

Brent Graham wrote: Nice in running play Vann - what a great stage and this race is wide open


Yeah. Managed to get out of that stage even. Would fancy Pinot for the tour but the predicted temperatures of 38 dgrs for the Alps worry me - He does not like the heat. Probably a coin toss between the two Ineos guys for the overall.

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4 years 9 months ago #120 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
A few thoughts on the out rights.
Yellow Jersey
Thomas came in under cooked owing to the crash in Swiss Tour. He may be better in week three. Bernal at 22 years old has never been in a third week of a Grand Tour. Temperatures for tomorrow forecast at 39 C and expected to hold through the Alps. - Pinot does not handle the heat.
Win
Thomas @ 15/4
Mountains Jersey
They asked S Yates if he is going for this jersey - He said no - but then he would. If he goes, in my opinion, he wins it.
Win
S Yates @ 11/2
Team Competition
Here is one of Vann's famous theories. Quintana is leaving for Arkea in the off season. I have never seen him criticised by anyone at Movistar but Valverde had a go at him a few days ago and Landa was scathing (quite rightly so) for his total lack of effort on stage 15 when Landa came past. This is not a happy camp. On stage 15 Landa, Valverde and Quintana were counting times. Soler finished 19 minutes down. Stages 18/19/20 all run well over 2,000 m and Valverde clutches at around 1,900 m. If Quintana pulls a sulk the half hour advantage they have on Ineos will not be enough. Ineos will go for the team prize on the last two stages if they feel they are close enough (just a matter of telling 3rd rider to ride in)
Win
Ineos @ 22/1
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4 years 9 months ago #121 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
My first proper stake on Tdf this year, to date just played the odd interest stake here and there but I’m convinced Thomas is struggling and his teammate looks fresher and primed for an attack this week if the Welshman isn’t on his game and team flip to the Colombian.

4 units Bernal outright @ 9/2

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4 years 9 months ago #122 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Today should be a print but that climb with 17km to go could be tough for some of the sprinters if ridden hard - I am thinking the break has a chance though and a couple of speculative plays

0.5 u Politt win at 200/1 Hollies
0.5 u Narsen win at 125/1 Hollies

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4 years 9 months ago #123 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Joining the boards on Politt and Naesen and adding
Sagan @ 6/1
Bettiol @ 300/1

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4 years 9 months ago #124 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
I was eyeing Bettiol for tomorrow but took a half unit at 400/1 at Hollywood LOL
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4 years 9 months ago #125 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
I might be cruising in a certain Fantasy Game we play but honestly lads as this tour goes into the final week the truth is - I'm clueless! I have no idea who takes the yellow in Paris at this stage.

Barnal should enjoy the altitude but he also looked at times to be right on his limit and as Vann says he has talent rather than experience to fall back on.
Buchmann has been one of the finds of the tour but whilst he has done well to follow I don't see him grabbing the race by the scruff of the neck and putting himself right in contention.
Kruisjwijk has bee impressive - to me Jumbo Visma have far and away been the team of the race. Again though we started to see a few little cracks from the Dutchman on the highest slopes and things are about to get even nastier for him - I reckon he blows on Friday.
Pinot is looking great and boy must he be cursing those crosswinds. He has worked his ass off to try and claw back some time but somehow I fear there's just one stage where he can't keep climbing as he has and that throws the ball back into the court of the Ineos pair.
Thomas has me well and truly scratching my head. On two occasions now he couldn't keep pace with the top lads. Yet he has done well to not panic and just settle back down into his own rhythm and get to the line in the best way possible for me (in true Sky fashion).

So clearly you can see that I offer no real input on the outright apart from saying I'm clueless. I have some coin on Pinot but at this stage am leaning toward Bernal to push the others at altitude and break free to win the race.
Twitter: @HDiemont

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4 years 9 months ago #126 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Was originally thinking Pollit would target Wednesday but competition could be fierce for that break and in the circumstances pointed out by Brent in his preview he could be worth a go today so he's in my plan. Also thrown in Luke Durbridge at 400/1 and Edvald Boasson Hagen at 40/1, all each way picks
twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 9 months ago #127 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Onto today.

Again - who the hell knows whats going to happen. We might just see three straight breakaway victories over the next three stages!

As most have said in their pre stage views. The likes of Jumbo Visma and DQS have bigger fish to fry and might not worry about doing any chasing. Sagan has green in the bag and also could get in the break which would take Bora out the mix as well. Lotto Soudal, perhaps Bahrain and even UAE could do the chasing if they don't have a break representative. (Sunweb must surely be done with putting in all the effort for no reward).

So, my feeling is a sprint between a few breakaway riders:
Matthews @ 44/1 (Reckon he dearly wants a win)
Trentin @ 48/1 (No team duties and strong enough to make the break)
Stuyven @ 67/1 (Will out-sprint most in a reduced dice)
Mohoric @ 124/1 (Can't have him winning a stage without my money on)
Twitter: @HDiemont

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4 years 9 months ago #128 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Still living on borrowed PC so early call for stage 17. Taking one up front and will try and pick two or three when the break forms (just has to be a large break)
e/w
Trentin @ 17/1

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4 years 9 months ago #129 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Good coin wasted as Jumbo put Martin on the front and smash any chance the break might have had.

I will stick to my exact same selections for Stage 17 here as I feel the reasoning remains unchanged. Prices willl however come in significantly. Reckon Astana will also go all out for a win tomorrow after their double setback today.
Twitter: @HDiemont

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4 years 9 months ago #130 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Maybe heat was a factor on Tuesday but still disappointed that the break wasn't much stronger.

Wednesday picks

Lutsenko 22/1
Impey 40/1
Feline 50/1
Pollit 50/1
twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 9 months ago #131 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
With you there Mackem, a bit disappointed in yesterday but perhaps understandable - no real harm done betting wise and I will be treading carefully again on what looks a stage for the break

1 u Trentin 12/1
0.5 u Bettiol 50/1
2 u winning distance 2 sec or more at 17/10

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4 years 9 months ago #132 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
2 u Matthews/Sagan at 15/10 Holly - I think Matthews climbing the better and Sagan moaning about the heat suggests to me he may be suffering a bit
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4 years 9 months ago #133 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
How dare you skip our Mohoric Chris?!

Love Trentin but have him in my fantasy team whilst few other have so will be delighted if he wins!

I reckon Matthews will be super keen today but jeez he's short.

Mohoric @ 24/1
Lutsenko @ 25/1
Stuyven @ 36/1
Valgren @ 70/1
Twitter: @HDiemont

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4 years 9 months ago #134 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
So both road captains for Ineos and Jumbo have been kicked out - Interesting. Think I am going to have only small plays tomorrow as I believe the break wins and 9/2 on Yates is just not my kinda odds. Will probably try for the other two podium places.

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4 years 9 months ago #135 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Watched stage a few hours late - Trentin you beauty and winning distance trots up for a good day

Couch you beauty - no 1 globally - I am no longer riding against you but will assume domestique duties
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4 years 9 months ago #136 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Trentin you biscuitttt!!!

Well done on the bet lads - super glad he finally got that win.

I like to get my own bets down before checking Will and the rest of Twitter...
Keeping it rather simple tomorrow - reckon Landa is in a league of his own in the steep stuff.

Stage 18:
Landa @ 9/1
Barguil @ 32/1
Jack Haig @ 42/1
Twitter: @HDiemont

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4 years 9 months ago #137 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Here we go guys - The Alps

This is a stage I am struggling to pic - a couple of small interests and then my main interest a match bet treble

0.5 u Quintana win at 33/1 Sunbet
0.5 u Lutsenko win at 28/1 WSB

2 units at 28/10 WSB
Lutsenko/Bilbao
G Martin/Kreuziger
Valverde/Alaphilippe

Video preview and update below

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4 years 9 months ago #138 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Also struggling with Thursday's stage Brent, nibbles at Jack Haig 33/1 and Bernal 18/1
twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 9 months ago #139 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Unless one of the big GC riders has a bad day I see a break staying today so having a stab at the win and two podium places
Win
S Yates @ 21/4
Top 3
Barguil @ 9/1
Zakarin @ 15/1
and a match bet double to cover above stakes if it goes pear shaped
Zakarin over Nibali into
Aru over Martin @ 5/2

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4 years 9 months ago - 4 years 9 months ago #140 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
The more I think about this stage the more I reckon descending could possibly be even more important than climbing - especially if the weather doesn't hold.

The Yates boys, Nibali and Bardet are very good going downhill but I really am concerned for Pinot today! Ala is the best of the lot and if the GC teams don't all help to push the pace he might even kick us in the teeth (still reckon he loses big time in the following two days).

Taking who I believe to be the better down-hillers:
Landa over Pinot @ 18/10
Ala P over Valverde @ evens (opposing Brent here)
Nibali over Zakarin @ 11/10 (hoping Nibs is feeling good so opposing Vann as the Zak will do well to stay upright)
Buchmann over Kruijswijk @ 910
Twitter: @HDiemont
Last edit: 4 years 9 months ago by Couch Critic.

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4 years 9 months ago #141 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Looks like the books are guaranteed some winnings today on the Valverde and Zakarin match bets. Did not post my second match bet double but here it is. Three climbs over 2,000m - just can't have Valverde
Barguil over Quintana into
Alaphilippe over Valverde @ 17/10

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4 years 9 months ago #142 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Quintana you beauty - amazing how TDF form can change

Have not looked at outright betting and well done Ala but I still believe he will crack
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4 years 9 months ago #143 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Great picks there Brent - and pretty darn good match bets from Couch - very skillful on the Zakarin/Valverde one as they rode in together. Did some work on my fantasy side and discovered I needed 9 picks for perfection. Sadly only have 6 left.
A little late on the thanks to Brent but ran with that 2 seconds on stage 17 which made it a brilliant stage all round.

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4 years 9 months ago #144 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Was pretty pissed that my Landa over Pinot punt lost as I thought that was a good value play. But I suppose I got lucky on others so can't complain.

Movi all of a sudden have 3 guys within 6 mins of Ala and within 5 of the others so they have a few jokers up their sleeve to play and really crack open the race in a big way. By far the strongest team around they have dictated terms without doubt. Again all eyes will be on them tomorrow (despite their best placed rider only being in 7th place overall).

Ineos just dont look to have their regular power and control to dish out the pain and finally bury Ala P. Even FDJ might find it tougher than in the Pyrenees and one might start to wonder whether some grande French conspiracy might not be whispered around so as to stop the French team from really going all out to smash the current yellow jersey holder. As per usual with grand tour rides you also get to a point of self preservation and thus Jumbo V and Bora will in all likelihood revert to heads down and just hold on. Thus it really could be all down to Movistar to make a real race of this!
Twitter: @HDiemont

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4 years 9 months ago #145 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
I would have preferred less than than 25km odd descent from the Iseran to the last climb as it yet again gives Ala P a chance to come back...

Went with him today and his team mate did the business but reckon there is only one win play for me tomorrow: Movi to smash the pace at the front and burn the others away before Landa launches for the win whilst the top five sans Ala look at each other and wonder who dares have a go but happy enough to settle for taking time on the Frenchie.

To win Stage 19:
Landa @ 19/2
Twitter: @HDiemont
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4 years 8 months ago #146 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
I think the GC men fight this out and Bernal a worth favourite

Just a small interest for me in the outrights

0.5u Barguil win at 33/1

In the match bets I like this double at 9/2

2 units Poels/Mas (1.75/1) - both domestics but expect Poels to be up there while Mas hopefully stays with a broken Ala

onto

Barguil/Ala (1/1) - 11/10 at WS but the double works out slightly better at Hollywood

Here is the video preview

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4 years 8 months ago #147 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Well done yesterday lads.

I’m not as up to speed as others but when I posted my bet on Bernal outright @ 9/2 I expected that Ineos would back him as soon as Thomas struggled, but reading reports last night i can’t get a clear picture - are they going to let him attack today or is he still riding for Thomas?

I see he’s now outright favourite around 6/4, so hoping this is a good sign. Just worried he’s not allowed to do his own thing today. Anyone have a clearer view?

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4 years 8 months ago #148 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Great call Quintana Brent :beer

South - I've backed Bernal to win the stage today, think its short enough and GC will try and break Alla today so hopefully he will be strongest. Nibbled at Jack Haig today as well just in case a break does stick but strongly favour a GC battle for stage win.
twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 8 months ago #149 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France

southpaw wrote: Well done yesterday lads.

I’m not as up to speed as others but when I posted my bet on Bernal outright @ 9/2 I expected that Ineos would back him as soon as Thomas struggled, but reading reports last night i can’t get a clear picture - are they going to let him attack today or is he still riding for Thomas?

I see he’s now outright favourite around 6/4, so hoping this is a good sign. Just worried he’s not allowed to do his own thing today. Anyone have a clearer view?


The team cars carry spare bikes in slots on the roof. These slots are numbered with slot No 1 being the outside slot above the door the mechanic gets out of ie the slot he can get to the quickest. Since stage 16 Bernal's spare bike has been in this slot. Maybe an indication of team thinking?

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4 years 8 months ago #150 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Today's finish is virtually flat. Fastest in the top 10 GC is Valverde but I think he gets dropped on the I'Íseran which leaves Thomas as the fastest finisher. Pinot has an apartment in Tignes and the two climbs are where he does his altitude training ie he is on his home climbs today.
Pinot @ 29/4
Thomas @ 23/2
keep losing one leg in my match bet doubles so just two singles today
Kruijswick over Buchmann @ evens
Aru over G Martin @ 16/10

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