Super Rugby Week 6 and Other Rugby

Still spitting at my mistake and not checking my Waratahs in running bet , was a huge swing and insured week 5 was a poor weekend.

My Caps for the new week.

Crusaders vs Bulls Crusaders minus 16.5
Rebels vs Sharks Rebels minus 4.5
Wolves vs Chiefs wolves plus 13.5
Canes vs Highlanders canes minus 11.5
Stormers vs Reds stormers minus 11.5
Jags vs Lions ( Jags plus 5.5 )

Have edited to be clear

Lets give this a try (copied Coil's picks and added mine in brackets:

Crusaders vs Bulls minus 16.5 (-19.5)
Rebels vs Sharks minus 4.5 (-8.5)
Wolves vs Chiefs plus 13.5 (+9.5)
Canes vs Highlanders minus 11.5 (-11.5)
Stormers vs Reds minus 11.5 (-7.5)
Jags vs Lions ( Jags plus 5.5 ) (+11.5)

Assuming Jags play badly again, and Lions pick up their game. Sharks just do not seem to have the passion or skill this year.

coil wrote: Still spitting at my mistake and not checking my Waratahs in running bet , was a huge swing and insured week 5 was a poor weekend.

My Caps for the new week.

Crusaders vs Bulls minus 16.5
Rebels vs Sharks minus 4.5
Wolves vs Chiefs plus 13.5
Canes vs Highlanders minus 11.5
Stormers vs Reds minus 11.5
Jags vs Lions ( Jags plus 5.5 )

So you are making the bulls minus 16.5 or that makes Crusaders + 16.5 ?

Sorry if not clear. Making Crusaders to win by 20 or more.

the reds did play well last night, only allowing the Jags to score 1 try..... but if you watched the game the Jags prevented themselves to score at least 3 other tries... Stormers on the mins 4 me

bradie82 wrote: I know it’s a bit early to punt on games happening in 4 weeks but last night I looked at the calendar in the Top 14 and looking at the fixture in European Challenge, I think the book are over estimating 2 French sides.
Both Brive and Stade Francais qualified for the European Challenge quarter finals (because teams like Toulouse, Sale, Bordeaux,… did not give a damn about this competition) and will be playing away in Newcastle and Pau, 2 teams that lost this year only 1 game for New and none for Pau. I keep in mind that both team are playing for either a semi-final spot or a first qualification for the European Champions Cup but I cannot see the 2 French sides bringing the big guns for those games.
Looking at the French table, both Brive and SF are fighting for relegation and if you add their schedule around that time, that gives :

24 mar : SF vs Toulouse
31 mar : Pau vs SF (Challenge)
07 April : SF vs Clermont

24 mar : Brive vs Agen
31 mar : Newcastle vs Brive (Challenge)
07 April : Oyonnax vs Brive

2 massive game for SF with Toulouse and Clermont home (they will target home game to avoid relegation) while Brive will be playing 2 teams fighting as well for relegation.
Therefore I am going with the biggest punt of the year so far

Newcastle x Pau @ 1.82

I will probably with more bet (handicap and over) later on but wanted to share this one now.
For those with a SB account, the Pau -6 is good as it is -8 everywhere else (I am restricted to 0.01 on SB)

Seems your early call is still on track as SF and Brive lost this weekend, they now sit 12th and 14th respectively:
Top 14 table: www.planetrugby.com/tournament/top-14/tables/

bradie82 wrote: Seems your early call is still on track as SF and Brive lost this weekend, they now sit 12th and 14th respectively:
Top 14 table: www.planetrugby.com/tournament/top-14/tables/

Thanks Cettas
Indeed and the calendar goes definitely in that way, especially as those 2 teams have 2 home game before and after the Challenge, with Agen (fighting with Brive for relegation) and Lyon for Brive while SF will have Toulouse trying to catch a semi final spot and Clermont being back in business with loads of key players back from injury.
Both handicap started to drop but I added 2 bets on top on the two I took already. Newcastle to win Challenge as I can't see them not reaching the semi final + home game for the semi final if Connacht beats Gloucester

5U Pau DNB x Newcastle DNB @ 1.57
0.5U Newcastle to win Challenge @ 6

Caps are out on bet365

Crusaders (-20.5) vs Bulls
Rebels (-6.5) vs Sharks
Wolves (+24.5) vs Chiefs
Canes (-4.5) vs Highlanders
Stormers (-11.5) vs Reds
Jags (+10.5) vs Lions

Early thoughts are on Canes H, Rebels H and Wolves H

All over the Stormers - vs the Reds.

Reds lucky to get that win in Argentina and had to fly to CPT via London! 12 hours behind schedule and the Stormers with their confidence up, need to follow it up with a win! Last game in 2016 saw Stormers win by 18 points.

I have to agree with RB, this jumped out at me when looking at first lines, as was doing usual reading up on any NZ rugby stories on NZ Herald site. Very bad travel for Reds, getting to CT almost a day late.

I got burnt on Reds a fortnight ago but i think this is a tough game for them this weekend.

Piling into the Stormers -11 @ 10/11.

Hurricanes -4.5 @1.93 is my main early pick

I was not impressed by the Highlanders this week end – Crusaders should have score more but too many handling errors and wrong choices that Canes will not do I reckon. On top of that, I found the referee slightly pro Landers with weird decisions (might be wrong but first half, few penalties given quickly).

Wolves +24.5 @1.89 – could be wrong on that one but I find it slightly too high

Rebels -6.5 @1.93 – like last week with my early call on Brumbies, I don’t rate this Sharks team – Rebels played well yesterday but Tahs were just on fire

Rebels x Stormers x Canes (all dnb) @ 2.60

Being far from the brightest blade of grass on the rugby field The Vann is registering pretty darn chuffed this am. When Bradie posted the caps took 2 units each on
Stormers - 11.5 and Canes - 4.5
and threw in a unit on the double @ 5/2

Hi gents
Please forgive me if this sounds like throwing money away..... or a bit crazy..... but im going against the grain, way against the grain.
BULLS outright win and the + just to cover.
Bulls very unlucky not to win last two games. Bad refree calls that did influence the game negatively for the bulls. This BULLS team is due a win against a mediocre crusadres team. Cant see them crushing the bulls at all, and believe the BULLS will go very close....

CHIEFS on the minus.... CHIEFS will destroy this wolves team. They were very lucky that they played a lions team that had a off day. Nothing seemed to stick, and Jantjies played very very very poorly. Lions couldhv been beaten by mossel bays 3rd team. Sure wolves scored some nice tries, but tries that were created by the lions. CHIEFS will cover their cap by half time, and double it with 10 to go.... this is not a bad chiefs team, they are not a poorly coached lions team.

Just my tboughts

My early picks

Bulls +20.5 (2 units)
Rebels - 6.5 (2 units)
Hurricanes - 4.5 (5 units)
Treble @7/1 1 unit

Hi Guys,

First official tips on this site so let's hope i can bring some beginners luck to a fair few of you!

REBELS (-5) v Sharks = The logic for this is relatively simple. The Rebels will be stinging after throwing away the 2nd half against the Waratahs and after watching the Sharks last week against the Brumbies and at home against the Waratahs i think the Sharks look bang average and putting the Austrailian derby to one side the Rebels have had a decent enough start to the season and this looks reasonably solid to me.

REDS (+13.5) v Stormers = Despite The Stormers looking very good at blues they were blowing in the last 10 or so and i think after the accumulation of some long distance travelling in the past week or so they will be relieved to be back on home soil for a good period of time to prepare for this one and they will need to be 100% ready to go against a Reds side that were so strong against the Jags at the weekend. This Reds side look a decent unit and were strong in the tackle against the Jags and dominated the game, running out winners at 3/1 pre-match. This handicap in my opinion is far too big and one that should be fully taken advantage of

No Ross Cronje for Lions and a few others out. I’m also warming to Jaguares to run Lions close -

Jaguares +10.5 @ 17/20
And double with Stormers -11.5 @ 5/2

Split forum on the Stormers v Reds match ...
I'm in the Stormers camp, Reds not played a team in the top half of the table yet and have travel factor to contend with while the Stormers are on the up. Stormers by 18.

Then the Lions without Whiteley are cluess, the minute he came off against the Blues the wheels fell off. Agree with Catsmug's sentiments on Swys ... he will be found out this season! Can't believe that he said the Lions "showed character" in their 2 point win against the Sunwolves, a top level coach would have had a different post match interview.
Lions don't match up well against the Jags and have lost both previous matches in Argentina by 12 points. The +10.5 is absolutely golden. Swys will praise his boys after a narrow 3 point win this weekend ...

Then in-play in the Sunwolves match looks enticing, expect the Sunnies to keep it tight for 60 minutes then the flood gates open

Following the trend on Jaguares

Jaguares +10.5 @1.89

I get the love for the Jaguares but I'd rather take their points over if its low enough. Lions' defense is woeful but they could still outscore the Jags by two tries.

Sharks have been horrific so far but I feel this game against the rebels will be close. Sharks have their backs against the wall, psychologically they gonna be pumped for this. Whether they will win, I'm not convinced, but at the end of the game, we will be asking ourselves where this Sharks team has been so far this season.

There is no way in hell Reds will beat Stormers this weekend. Reds are on a high, the win last week was unexpected for them, will negatively affect their play this weekend. Stormers shud cruise.

I doubt Chiefs will run away with it against the wolves. Chiefs tend to rise to the occasion depending on the class of the opponent.

Once again I am going to go on the Oyonnax handicap away which I find very high
They play at Pau and despite Pau being still fighting for a spot in the play off and having rested few key players last week in Clermont, they have a quarter final the following week while Oyonnax will rest.
Oyonnax has been the team of the past few weeks in the Top 14 with 4 consecutive win and they play very well with a Ben Botica on fire

My call is : Oyonnax +16.5 @1.85

bradie82 wrote: Once again I am going to go on the Oyonnax handicap away which I find very high
They play at Pau and despite Pau being still fighting for a spot in the play off and having rested few key players last week in Clermont, they have a quarter final the following week while Oyonnax will rest.
Oyonnax has been the team of the past few weeks in the Top 14 with 4 consecutive win and they play very well with a Ben Botica on fire

My call is : Oyonnax +16.5 @1.85

max units ?

Stoossy wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Once again I am going to go on the Oyonnax handicap away which I find very high
They play at Pau and despite Pau being still fighting for a spot in the play off and having rested few key players last week in Clermont, they have a quarter final the following week while Oyonnax will rest.
Oyonnax has been the team of the past few weeks in the Top 14 with 4 consecutive win and they play very well with a Ben Botica on fire

My call is : Oyonnax +16.5 @1.85

max units ?

No max unit on that one but on a scale from 0 to 5, this is a 3.5 Units call

Going for Rebels and Canes outright, onto Jaguares +9.5. 3to1 at WSB

Bulls +32.5, Sunwolves +38.5, Highlanders +16.5, Reds +24.5, Jaguares +22.5 and Sharks +16.5 will give you 2to1 and WSB.......safe bet?

Stark wrote: Bulls +32.5, Sunwolves +38.5, Highlanders +16.5, Reds +24.5, Jaguares +22.5 and Sharks +16.5 will give you 2to1 and WSB.......safe bet?

looks very safe gee good find

On the Bulls +20.5 but hesitant with crotty and whitelock back. Taking Rebels 1-12 based on being at home and in good form (not considering 2nd half vs tahs as a fall from grace) but low units knowing that Sharks could fire, JL Du Preez starting also helps them big time imo.

Also with Landers +5.5 and Landers to win, I don't know why it isn't a level game. Canes only beat saders by 10 when saders were absolutely awful while landers have beaten every handicap so far and have been firing.

Sometimes we just over think these games. Canes will Chow the Landers on the board!

Mapimpi not a happy camper at the moment. He was clearly not impressed when he got pulled off against the Brumbies. And when Sharks scored in the second half he wasn't celebrating on the bench.

Regarding the Jags, if their coach has a Dstv explorer, he should look at the Reds 2nd half try in slow Mo. It will make him wanna put some of the players through a lie detector Test?

I am unsure of the backlash that will come from the Crusaders after their last two losses. They are still a really quality side. Add in the fact that Crotty is back to marshal the defences in the backline and Whitelock back in to lead from the front.
So, on that note and the Bulls recent performances in the first halves of their tour games, I think there is a lot of value in:
Bulls H/T +10.5
And if the trend from the last two games continues, a dabble on:
Bulls / Crusaders @9

Zambusta wrote: I am unsure of the backlash that will come from the Crusaders after their last two losses. They are still a really quality side. Add in the fact that Crotty is back to marshal the defences in the backline and Whitelock back in to lead from the front.
So, on that note and the Bulls recent performances in the first halves of their tour games, I think there is a lot of value in:
Bulls H/T +10.5
And if the trend from the last two games continues, a dabble on:
Bulls / Crusaders @9

I agree the HT cap of around +100.5 is fantastic value

Gonna have a go at:

Crusaders -12
Hurricanes
Stormers -11

@ 3.4/1

Thursday night Pro D2:

Beziers for the win @ 1.83, they are still in with a hope for the play-offs

Cettas wrote: Thursday night Pro D2:

Beziers for the win @ 1.83, they are still in with a hope for the play-offs

That one is extremely hard to call
Beziers will be without quite loads of key players ( Marie, Viiga, bourdeau, Fualau,Marcopena, Hagan, Puletua, Porical ) and therefore will have 8 youngsters tonight on the pitch and I wonder if Beziers is not targeting the last two game against Carcassonne and Nevers with that turnover. Will stay away

Hey guys thoughts on how important travel factor is, seems like it will play huge factor in reds v stormers

kingalex44 wrote: Hey guys thoughts on how important travel factor is, seems like it will play huge factor in reds v stormers

these clowns fly first class lol dont think it will bother them 2 much

Sharks to score a penalty before 35" @1.86

Surely that's a winner!!

bradie82 wrote: Sharks to score a penalty before 35" @1.86

Where do u find that exotic market

sebokeng wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Sharks to score a penalty before 35" @1.86

Where do u find that exotic market

Bet365

Bulls over 7.5 half time points at WSB

Have taken the Crusaders to win by 11-20 @3.25....there could be rain here in Christchurch tonight when the game is on but I don't think there will be that much if it does.

Saders v Bulls under 8.5 tries
Rebels v Sharks under 7.5 tries

Double @ 15/10 with Sunbet.