Cycling : Giro d Italia

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5 months 2 weeks ago #1 by The Vann
Cycling : Giro d Italia was created by The Vann
The first Grand Tour has arrived. This years tour has only 44km of ITT ( 2017 - 69km ) and the climbs peak at 2,135m ( 2017 - 2,858m ). The climbs are also less severe then prior tours with only stage 14 - 10km at 11.9% looking like something that could seriously affect the GC.
Young Riders Classification
Teams have been reduced from 9 to 8 riders in Grand Tours. The field thus has 176 riders as opposed to previous years 198 riders. Stats from the last 3 years tell us that over 19% of riders do not finish the tour. With the smaller teams this should mean an increased work load and this figure could be higher this year. Lopez is the overwhelming favorite for this jersey at 2/10. My take on this is that statistically there is a 20% chance that he may not finish so I am going for
Win Oomen @ 9/1
Points Classification
Vivianni at 9/10 is in top form this year and Quickstep are fielding a team specifically to win this jersey. With the second favorite on offer at only 5/1 this is a No Bet for me.
King of the Mountains
With the smaller teams ( see above ) it is going to be more difficult to chase down breaks and this classification could be targeted and won by a non GC contender. I think Visconti at 11/1 ( winner in 2015 ) has a shot but I prefer the longer odds on
Win Geniez @ 33/1
Win Polanc @ 80/1
Overall Classification
Difficult to look past Froome and Dumoulin but at 15/10 and 2/1 not worth a punt. With the flat ITT riders like Chavez/Yates/Meintjies are going to struggle to build up enough time in the climbs to podium. Michael Wood at 29 years old has only been riding for 5 years. In his first 2 Grand Tours last year he finished 38th at the Giro and 7th at the Vuelta. He also came 2nd in Liege a few weeks ago so is carrying form. Carlos Betancur is one of the most talented riders around. He placed 5th at the Giro in 2013 and won the Young riders classification. Since then he has been both over weight and mentally away with the fairies. He has been handed the leadership of a weakened Moviestar outfit and, should he be only 80% fit, he is still good enough to compete.
Top 3 Wood @ 14/1
Top 10 Betancur @ 11/2
Teams Classification
With the smaller teams I am expecting a few breaks to stay away which means any team who puts 2 riders in a break could make up 10-20 minutes on a stage. I think this makes a punt here a little risky so
No Bet
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5 months 2 weeks ago #2 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Giro Stage 1
This is a 10km ITT and is quite technical. It is not a pure power type course. Dennis is 2/5 to win and therefor not worth a punt. Have to go to the top 3 market to try and find our value. My pick is a rider who has been very positive on twitter since arriving in Israel and should run close over this course
Mullen @ 7/1 at BetXchange

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5 months 2 weeks ago #3 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Great stuff Vann (B)

I will follow on Betancur for Top10
Then Pinot for the overall win @ 15/2

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5 months 2 weeks ago #4 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Giro Overall
Amazingly - after 10km of a Grand Tour the books have switched favorites. I am having a little dig on
Froome over Dumoulin @ 16/10
Stage 2
Not going to spend big bucks this early on a stage but a beer for the watch. This is a short stage - 167km - and Sunweb will not chase a meaningless break with any real intent. I am not sure how many sprint teams are going to help Quickstep drag the overwhelming favorite - Viviani - to the line so my beer goes on the break at Sportingbet
Any rider other then 14 listed @ 6/1

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5 months 2 weeks ago #5 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Doesn't seem to be much depth in the sprinting ranks for this Giro and I don't get too excited when you have an odds fav for the flat stage so will rather leave it. Got to be some good stage profiles next week.

Instead of Giro I will have a nibble at GvA in Tour de Yorkshire Stage 4 at around 28/10

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5 months 2 weeks ago #6 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Bennett @ 17/4 with Sportsbet for me

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5 months 2 weeks ago #7 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Viviani looked untouchable yesterday and,with the time differences still in the seconds BMC will take the sprint teams to the last 50km so still looking at a bunch sprint. Going with a match bet
Bonifazio over Modolo @ evens

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5 months 2 weeks ago #8 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Also on Bennet who is shortening, got 7/2 Betx

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5 months 2 weeks ago #9 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Also on Bennet who is shortening, got 7/2 Betx

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5 months 2 weeks ago #10 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
I like Danny Van Poopel @12/1, looked like his team were trying to get him in yesterday but missed out.

For beer money as The Vann says. (B) (B)

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5 months 2 weeks ago #11 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Stage 4 Tuesday, a roller.

Got to think Wellens is a huge runner but I'd rather put the beer money on longer odds riders.

Betancur at around 33/1 and in case the GC guys get dragged along to the finish then Pinot at 16's.

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5 months 2 weeks ago #12 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Stage 4
One from the bunch and a wild guess should the break stay
Ulissi @ 13/2
De Marchi @ 150/1

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5 months 2 weeks ago #13 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
A nice little warm-up before Thursday's mouth-watering stage.

Also fancy Ulissi but just a touch short for me.

Giovanni Visconti @ 28/1
Matej Mohoric @ 33/1

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5 months 2 weeks ago #14 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Jeez quite a power effort needed at the end there. Another nice little stage today though not the same steep finish.

Break might have a better chance today as the time gaps appear but I am hoping for one last "sprint". Only a select few will duel it out. Sam Bennett might have enough strength in the legs to get over the humps near the end and then he should be favourite. I reckon he will be super keen for a sprint without Viviani to worry about. That said Modolo probably even stronger than him going up.

If the punchier boys make it tough then the likes of Wellens, Bettaglin, Goncalves, Schachmann and perhaps Stybar should be right in it.

Having a stab at:
Mohoric @ 22/1 - In reduced company he could be the man
Conti @ 29/1 - Another late attempt like yesterday

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5 months 2 weeks ago #15 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Thanks Couch, following with Mohoric and added also a stab at Sbaragli at 100/1

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5 months 2 weeks ago #16 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
At 153km the break has a better chance today but there are several GC guys who may fancy their chances at the 10-6-4 second bonuses so I'm going for two from, hopefully a GC sprint
Brambilla @ 80/1 ( Not really GC but looked interested yesterday before the crash )
Chavez @ 90/1

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5 months 1 week ago #17 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Visconti leaves it a day too late for me to have an interest in any of the two nice little stages.

Onto the Volcano today gents!! I have been waiting for this one...

Problem - I REALLY fancy the top of the betting card at present. Froome a touch off his best and everyone gunning at trying to steal some time before he perhaps kicks into gear during the second half of the race. Pozzovivo has looked sublime. Yates is full of fire and has a great kick. Michael Woods has the legs for a climb and also good gas. Lopez wants some time back, Chavez showed in Stage 4 he is feeling sprightly and perhaps Aru will want to show he should not be forgotten.

Who to choose...?? (Will mull it over for an hour or so)

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5 months 1 week ago #18 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Today we get our first indication on which of our long term bets have a shot and which tickets are heading for the bin :lol:
In his last Grand Tour Lopez started well and then faded. Hopefully he is not too damaged from being down twice.
Stage 6
Win Lopez @ 15/2
I don't expect this to land but the odds are just too long so a beer on
Betancur @ 60/1

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5 months 1 week ago #19 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Im with Pinot today for Stage 6, has been in good form and was buzzing around the front a couple of days back. I'm banking on GC battle thinking that Froome's rivals will want to test him on the first big slope so should be a cracking watch

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5 months 1 week ago #20 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Okay time to erupt into a bet for the volcano stage :silly:

George Bennett @ 19/1 - Climbing legs of course and showed me enough yesterday to back him for a late surge for the line.

Outsider - Goncalves @ 61/1 & Pello Bilbao @ 71/1

The more I look at the stage the more I wish Sky would let Poels off the leash. Reckon he has both the climbing legs as well as being able to beat most climbers in a sprint.

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5 months 1 week ago #21 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Going to record todays stage but have to have an interest

Woods 16/1
Chavez 28/1
Polanc 80/1
Betancur 80/1

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5 months 1 week ago #22 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia

Brent Graham wrote: Going to record todays stage but have to have an interest

Woods 16/1
Chavez 28/1
Polanc 80/1
Betancur 80/1

Correct me if I am wrong - but I make that 2 from 2 on Etna (B) (B) (B)
I cannot wait for Giro d Italia 2019 :lol:

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5 months 1 week ago #23 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
LOL Vann you have a great memory, it took me a while but then I remember Polanc at around 100/1 last year

Great win Chavez, geez I was cursing when Yates attacked but it all worked out

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5 months 1 week ago #24 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Nice one Beeeg!! (B)

Haha when Yates made the break I was thinking BG must be sweating bullets right now... :P Touch of class from SY to do the right thing.

Unbelievable to see the form of Yates. It seemed effortless for him whilst the rest were in a world of hurt - even Superman. Nice to see Pinot still looking sprightly but Betancur was a worry.

I had this stage highlighted as a must watch and boy did it deliver! I just love it when the road goes up and teams have a proper go.

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5 months 1 week ago #25 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Great stage yesterday, well done with Chavez BG (B) That team looking really strong.

Sitting out the flat stage Friday

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5 months 1 week ago #26 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Another Vivianni stage today. Because its shortish I am taking a beer on the break at Sportingbet
Rider other than 15 listed @ 5/1

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5 months 1 week ago #27 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Big bet by cycling standards today - Tim Wellens at 9/1

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5 months 1 week ago #28 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Have seen enough form to encourage me to go for a real bet on today's stage
Treble
Wellens/Pantano
Woods/Dennis
Dumoulin/Froome @ 2/1 at Sunbet
and the stage beer goes to
Bennet @ 60/1 ( That would be George :silly: )
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5 months 1 week ago #29 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Schachmann @24/1
Conti @ 28/1

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5 months 1 week ago #30 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Gone with 3 guys who should be given leeway, Hermans my top bet at 22/1, Pantano at 28/1 and Nicholas Roche at 50/1.

You seen the climbing to come on Sunday? marathon..!!

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5 months 1 week ago #31 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Gone with a few outsiders:

Bennet @ 66/1 (Vann selection)
Poels @ 100/1

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5 months 1 week ago - 5 months 1 week ago #32 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Slow burning steady climb (at high altitude) ending with 4km's of steep finish.GC hasn't really given the break the opportunity yet and its tough deciding between the two today.

Pantano @ 40/1
De Marchi @ 50/1
Joe Dombrowski @ 60/1

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Last edit: 5 months 1 week ago by Couch Critic.

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5 months 1 week ago #33 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
I think Astana go for this stage and main bet Lopez at 7/1

Also throwing in Formolo 22/1
Reichenbach 100
Geniez 100
Pantano 33/1

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5 months 1 week ago #34 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Pity about the rain yesterday. Neutralized the charge to the line with only the youngster dumb enough to take risks in those conditions.
GC guys still pretty bunched with the 10-6-4 on the line worth going for so sticking with the peleton.
Pinot @ 8/1
Froome @ 33/1

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5 months 1 week ago #35 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
I'm thinking GC only on Sunday and Pinot and Lopez against the field for me

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5 months 1 week ago #36 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Visconti at 18/1 for me tomorrow

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5 months 1 week ago #37 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Reckon if the break has the right make up ie everyone over 15min plus behind it could stay
De Marchi @ 35/1
Pedersen @ 60/1
Carthy @ 200/1
van Rensburg @ 200/1

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5 months 1 week ago #38 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Also hoping for a break on Tuesday, whether from the start or a solo from the bunch

Mohoric, Tony Martin, Stybar my riders

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5 months 1 week ago #39 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Have to pick someone from Androni as they have put a rider in every break
Torres @ 300/1

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5 months 1 week ago #40 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
I'm on:
Conti @ 35/1
Mohoric @ 23/1
Ben Hermans @ 40/1

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5 months 1 week ago #41 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
If Henao had not latched on to De Marchi I may have had a shout. However, today's beer goes to - damn a dead heat. Ok (B) (B) a beer each then to Mackem and Couch.

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5 months 1 week ago #42 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Battaglin at 6/1 today on a finish when suits and from a possible break Lutsenko at 50/1 and Chaves at 100/1

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5 months 1 week ago #43 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
and a match bet treble

Battaglin over Wellens
Woods over Formolo
Yates over Pinot at just over 1/1

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5 months 1 week ago #44 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Reckon its Battaglin all the way if it is relatively "together" up the final incline.

But I'm sticking with guys I feel just HAVE to get it right some time:
Ulissi @ 14/1
Conti @ 47/1
Brambilla @ 50/1
Ben Hermans @ 59/1

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5 months 1 week ago #45 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Short stages usually favour the break but both Lotto teams will probably assist the main GC sides in the chase for their men Wellens and Battaglin to hunt for the stage win. I get more enjoyment value for my money by picking a rider in the break so with Couch here
Conti @ 33/1
Ciccone @ 50/1
Polanc @ 125/1

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5 months 1 week ago #46 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Needed that Mohoric win on Tuesday, well done Couch (B)

Hermans for me on Wednesday, Betancur a complete roughie and want a GC man as well so Pinot for buttons.

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5 months 6 days ago #47 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Nothing - at the right odds - appeals on Stage 12. I have noticed something odd in the Giro. It is the first Grand Tour in years where I have seen Sky repeatedly try and place a rider in the break. I have no idea what the plan is but have taken a unit on

Team competition Sky @ 35/10

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5 months 5 days ago #48 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Bennett today at 14/10

Recorded yesterdays stage and watched the last 30km - a seriously exciting one and hopefully we get another today despite the flat profile

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5 months 5 days ago #49 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Around 20km downhill and flat to finish today and, reportedly, not as technical as yesterday with the last bend 5km from the finish. Just has to be
Viviani @ 35/20

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5 months 5 days ago #50 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d Italia
Well played Vann

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