Vuelta a España 2018

I think yesterday's logic fits today's stage so Majka spent his penny yesterday which leaves us with
Woods @ 25/1
At some point in time I expect this guy to win from a break - maybe today
Cataldo @ 125/1

Break not going anywhere. Taken a chunk in play
Valverde @ 12/1

Came up empty on the money side but that final climb is quite similar to the World's finish so have taken some

S Yates @ 15/1

(Don't expect these odds to stay for long if he makes the GB side)

Really think Lopez dropped the ball there yesterday. He is talking about the long game but he has got to remember that Yates is much improved in the TT. Lopez will need to have quite a bit in hand over Simon and yesterday he missed a huge opportunity imo. Quintana just needed some help from his fellow Columbian to make it a winning move I feel but he refused to contribute. Not very heroic from Superman!

Mountain opportunities are getting less for Nairo and Lopez and by not taking a bit of time yesterday they are starting to leave themselves in need of an earlier break to try gain 1 minute somewhere...

Lagos de Covadonga is a brute of a climb so we should see the top 4 or 5 GC guys slug it out again today. But I reckon could be the second show after the break contests the win. Mitch-Scot are intent on learning from past mistakes by not doing too much work. Astana will be keen on setting Superman up for a proper shot today after looking like he had some legs to spare yesterday. I just think Movi and Astana will be more focussed on their main players than worrying about a break having to be brought back.

Majka @ 14/1
Mollema @ 25/1

In the big mountain stages we often see the same contenders coming to the fore. Majka looks to be going great guns atm and Mollema could make a play for KOM.

Hopefully no Kwiatkowski type rider in the break today

Teuns @ 50/1
Porte @ 50/1
Pardillla @ 80/1
Rodriguez @ 80/1

(No need to pick a GC guy as I have noticed their odds stay about the same quite a way into the stage - when the books carry in play on a stage)

Brent Graham wrote: I think the big boys fight this out but I've the break a chance so going

Pinot 25/1 - impressed yesterday and will prefer longer climb, may take advantage of Lopez and Quintana watching each other

Zakarin 40/1 - could win from a break

Pemsteiner 66/1 - could get into break for team comp

Wow! BG absolutely FLYING in this Vuelta!

RESPECT Brent. Great show guys. My two pennies worth on the outrights are as follows. Valverde's older legs have struggled on the short sharp climbing stages viz
lost 3 1/2 min over 108km on TdF 11 and 2 1/2 min on TdF17 over 65km. Kruiswijk took 2 1/2 min and 1 1/2 min out of him on those stages. I think Kruiswijk gets very close to top 3 today ( may even overtake Quintana and Lopez ) and I expect Valverde to struggle on Stage 20 which gives me
Top 3
Kruiswijk @ 7/2
On the team side I think Bahrain match or beat Moviestar today and they will look to place a rider or two in the breaks. Am taking
Team to win
Bahrain @ 5/4
Will hold fire on the KOM till I see how Mate goes today. I think there are less points left in this competition then expected as I agree with Couch that Stage 20 will probably be a GC shoot out and the best the KOM contenders can hope for is points on the first climb and maybe something on the second.
ITT
Not sure how well this guy is after his crash but he finished 4th behind Tom D/Froome/Thomas in the TdF ITT and, except for Dennis, there is not that quality in this field.
Top 3
Kwaitkowski @ 5/2

The Vuelta beautifully set-up for the final few stages.

I reckon Movistar will now look to play the two-card trick. Quintana to move earlier and Valverde to sit and wait for Yates to close before he has a go. And then poor Yates also has Lopez to worry about. The Brit also showed to be a bit of a nervous leader as he even chased Pinot the other day - he will have to abandon this idea very quickly. He might be wearing red but Yates needs to rely on the ego of other riders to also do some chasing - either to protect a podium, top five or the outright win opportunity for themselves. He can't do it all himself.

And it is exactly on this point that I am a touch concerned with Nairo and Lopez - the two Colombians seem to be heading to a point where neither of them wants to lose a podium spot to the other rather than just laying it all down to have a go at ultimate glory. Anyway, we wait and see whether this dynamic changes on the 3 remaining mountain stages.

The guys behind Valverde, Kruisjwijk and Yates can't afford to just let a mountain stage go by anymore. Thus the chances are pretty good that Astana ride tempo today. That being said the climbs during the stage just don't seem lethal enough to really sap too much energy and it is only the final climb which is a brute. Still, it is certainly Lopez country this! As you guys have mentioned the best option could be to wait for in-play action and then take Lopez if the break seems doomed.

Thus for me:
Kwiatkowski @ 30/1
Theuns @ 50/1
Brambilla @ 59/1
Merhawi Kudus @ 200/1

Thanks guys for all the previews, really enjoying them.

I have gone for the following for today:

Richie Porte @ 66/1 E/W
Daniel Moreno @ 250/1 E/W

Hoping one of them get into the break and can hold on at the end.

Enjoy the racing

Today's stage is a good example of what makes the Vuelta show better then the TdF. Same stage profile in TdF would be 60km longer - many more riders interested in a break on a stage this length. Needless to say, my confidence in the break is also around Brent's 40% mark so just one and a match bet up front.
e/w
Woods @ 66/1
Match bet
Agree with Brent but making it a double
I Izagirre over Buchmann into
Pinot over Uran @ 15/10

Have decided to go with TdG power over the five lower cat climbs today
KOM
De Gendt @ 3/1

(Seriously disappointed in the Nibali ITT yesterday - Thought he would make an effort for the team competition)

Wow BG on fire .... what a Vuelta! Wow wow wow

Unbelievable grand tour this! And what a stage - jeez Woods almost looked like he was about to fall off his bike with 200meters to go. Man I love those beastly climbs! The mist at the top just added to the suspense.

BG take a bow - you've nailed the stages and now have a serious runner in Valverde.

Brilliant stage all round. Was very pleased that Sunbet offer stage Top 3 this year and I had Woods e/w when I saw Teuns closing in the final 100m.
Not much on offer in the match bets today so taking a beer on Sunbets place offers
Top 3
Soto @ 11/2

@Brent - Missus says Sagan is still here because his wife has filed for divorce and he is too chicken to go home and face the music.

World Cycling Road Race
Possible early value - The road race over 260km plus ends with a 2.8km climb at 12% with 20+% ramps. The "A" list has only two names - Valverde and Ala P ( D Martin not riding ). The "B" list are guys like Yates, Kwaito etc.
Spain announced their long list last night and it includes Nicolau Mas. He beat Valverde up yesterdays climb and I believe he should be near the top of the "B" list at around the 15-20/1 mark. Found this at WSB last night
Win Only
N Mas @ 100/1

I just don't see Movistar and Astana letting the second last mountain day come and go without trying to win some time.

If Valverde survives the early slopes (and an expected attack from Lopez) then he will surely win the dice for the line as well as the carrot of the 10 second time bonus. But 5/1 is just a bit too short for me.

For an interest I will back Kelderman (@ 65/1) to have a good day and hopefully try and sneak away on the early steep sections of the climb a la Pinot.

Thanks for the show Brent. I still have my doubts re Valverde on Saturday's stage and so must he. This means he has to place around top 5 today to secure the points jersey should he come up empty on Saturday. Therefor I'm with the forum that a break has very little chance today ( and virtually none if Teuns is in it - also a points threat ).
Going with the punter on a winning run Uran @ 66/1 and Izagirri @ 150/1.
Have to support Sunbet with the top 3 so a roughie
e/w
Kuss @ 200/1

(Just some info for the punters - Today and tomorrows stage are S Yates off season training roads. He has ridden all these climbs many, many times )

Today's final climb was first used in 2012 and stage was won by Valverde but the stage's only other climb was a cat 2. Valverde is six years older and has struggled on these short stages with several climbs recently. Even though the break will contain good climbers I believe Astana and Lotto Jumbo need to "burn-off" Valverde before the final climb to ensure podium finishes. I expect this scenario to deliver a GC contested finish and am taking
Win
Yates @ 13/2
Top 3
Yates @ 7/4 (Main bet)
To make Top 3 - No
Valverde @ 11/10

Well guys - That was one of the best Grand Tours I have seen. The par course was brilliant ( except for one or two dodgy finishes ) and we have seen glimpses of cycling's future stars. On the punting side I'm normally large on the out rights and smaller on the stages but, with my TdF disaster fresh in my mind, I went light up front and wagered more on the stages. Thanks to BG's brilliance this has meant a nice profit over the three weeks and I have no intention of returning any to the books today.
Can't watch a stage completely dry so taking a beer on
Win
Sagan @ 5/2
Thanks to all who posted thoughts on the boards and see you guys at the World's.