Rugby Champs week 5, Currie Cup round 8, Pro 14 + other rugby

All over the Argies this week! Australia are at a low point, throw in the travel factor and the fact that the Argies would have circled this as THE must win of their Rugby Championships before it started.
Winner avoids the wooden spoon and just feel that Los Pumas have more going for them going into this match

Same here. I can't see Argentina losing at home against Australia so going big on that.

And I also got onto the All Blacks -10.5 at WSB last night. I'm expecting a 20 point win by New Zealand.

That's a nice Monday morning present. All over it as well.

Really liking ARG for the win at 0.9. Aussies must travel and struggling for form....I expected a minus cap of 4.5 or so.... Go Argies!

Argies at 1.9 is a gift! I am liking the Boks +12.5. They will be determined to show that the Wellington test wasn't a flash in the pan. While I don't expect them to win the game, a 12 point head start is generous against a travelling AB side at altitude in a packed out Loftus.

Mitre Cup Action:
Otago -6.5 vs BOP is the pick so far. BOP will be without Delaney and Otago at home are finding form

I'm of the opinion that the Bok win against the All Blacks was a flash in the pan.

We won't be seeing the intercept tries this coming Saturday. And it will be much harder to keep the All Black running game at bay at Loftus. Plus the All Blacks will be much more clinical and determined. They won't just pitch and expect to easily win this time around.

The amount of traveling is worrying but altitude won't be much of a problem. The Springbok side is mostly filled with coastal based players in any case.

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Argies at 1.9 is a gift! I am liking the Boks +12.5. They will be determined to show that the Wellington test wasn't a flash in the pan. While I don't expect them to win the game, a 12 point head start is generous against a travelling AB side at altitude in a packed out Loftus.

Mitre Cup Action:
Otago -6.5 vs BOP is the pick so far. BOP will be without Delaney and Otago at home are finding form

Agree with you on Otago and you got a nice handicap at 6.5. I have taken - 9.5 at 9/10.

My big Mitre10 Cup play this week is Canterbury -12.5 at 5/6. Taranaki has been rubbish this year, but it seems the bookies keep pricing them up on last year's form. My only concern is that they are in a relegation scrap with the Steelers, but Canterbury has plenty to play for. They are still in the hunt to finish top of the log. At home, against a poor Taranaki side I would be surprised if Canterbury win this by less than 20.

Got on the Otago -9.5 train! See its moved out at Playa so just in time before their Hanrick Warning Signals got triggered!

Can't believe how bad Naki are this season!

Back after quite some time. Spent the last few weeks dusting off my math and stats skills to develop a basic model for predicting some rugby handicaps. Focused on the Northern Hemisphere games(Pro14, Top14 and English Prem). More of a side project for me using some attacking, defensive and scoring statistics to predict the handicaps of the games. Below are the 20 games in the NH this weekend, got the handicaps from a UK site and my predicted handicap in bold. I will be playing the teams I highlighted in orange, which are the games that I have a more than 6 points difference from the spread.

La Rochelle v Clermont -3 5.57
Racing v Lyon -10 -6.51
Grenoble v Bordeaux -3.5 1.21
Pau v Perpignan -13.5 -15.45
Toulouse v Agen -26.5 -19.97
Castre v Stade -9 -1.66
Montpellier v Toulon -13 -17.24
Bath v Exeter 6.5 9.36
Northampton v Leicester -4.5 -10.53
Wasps v Gloucester -10.5 -9.05
Sale v Newcastle -3.5 -3.46
Harlequins v Saracens 9.5 4.26
Worcester v Bristol -4.5 -10.28
Edinburgh v Cheetahs -13.5 -20.95
Glasgow v Zebre -25.5 -19.53
Ulster v Connacht -7.5 -1.44
Llanelli v Ospreys -8.5 -8.67
Newport v Cardiff 5.5 2.66
Leinster v Munster -9.5 -6.48
Benetton v Kings -19.5 -16.46

Thanks Sir for sharing your findings. I want to follow a few of those, but just want to double check, what sort of average win percentage does your model get correct week on week?

e.g. your model has been run over the past 3 weeks in the competitions you mentioned and has an average win percentage of 70%. something like that.

Betxchange out with next week's currie cup handicaps

Pumas +6.5 v Lions
Griquas +14.5 v Sharks
Bulls +7.5 v WP

Rugby champs over so boks should be back in action for the unions

WP -7.5 & Lions -6.5 for me

Cettas wrote: Betxchange out with next week's currie cup handicaps

Pumas +6.5 v Lions
Griquas +14.5 v Sharks
Bulls +7.5 v WP

Rugby champs over so boks should be back in action for the unions

WP -7.5 & Lions -6.5 for me

Just remember contracted Boks are not allowed to play in the Currie Cup. Not sure who is contracted though.

hanrick wrote:

Cettas wrote: Betxchange out with next week's currie cup handicaps

Pumas +6.5 v Lions
Griquas +14.5 v Sharks
Bulls +7.5 v WP

Rugby champs over so boks should be back in action for the unions

WP -7.5 & Lions -6.5 for me

Just remember contracted Boks are not allowed to play in the Currie Cup. Not sure who is contracted though.

Thanks Hanrick, in any case think on current form the WP -7.5 seems good value

I havent tracked how it performed against the spread for that long. Was more focused on trying to get it close to the actual results initially. Had a 3-2 week last week which included 2 loses on Cardiff minus vs Cheetahs and Zebre. Suspect that the model under rate Cheetahs after a few big losses early and overrate Zebre after a couple decent games early.

Over the whole season which has about 120 games so far my average number of points that im off is about 6.5 per game. It is about half a standard deviation which my limited knowledge tells me might be half decent. If you exclude a few games that I was way off, Kings victory, Cheetahs lost by 38 and Montepellier had a big loss it might be even better.

Not sure if that answers any of your quesions.

Thanks Sir. Yeah one of the one I want to avoid is cheetahs but really cool that you came up with a model that's relatively close. Maybe you can add a flag where there is good or bad current form (vs good or bad form earlier in season), so those ones might be worth staying away from.

Really like Argies win but surprised the price hasn't moved much. Expecting WP -7.5 to move a lot so taking that.

Might start using a weight to more recent games or to games that I feel were outliers. Montpellier losing by 42 one week and winning by 51 the next is going to break most models.

@ Sir
Thanks for sharing your model - quite interested to understand a bit more about it especially how do you include turnovers and games played prior to the European Cup for example ( Agen will do a turnover for the Challenge Cup next week and will for the first time this season away play with the best squad available)
On top of it, quick question on a particulate game : La Rochelle v Clermont -3 5.57
If I understand well, you were predicting a Clermont +5.57 and the cap has been set at -3 which indeed is a difference or more than 6 bit in the your way so why would you pick up that game? (I might have miss a point but if so, could you please let me know where I got your predictions wrong - thanks in advance).

Havent got turnovers in the model yet, it is still a mission to get data in a nice format so my lack of time is the limitation at the moment.

Regarding the Clermont game, the cap that is out is La Rochelle -3 but I have it at La Rochelle +5.57 hence why I would play Clermont at +3.

@Sir
If you are looking for a possible comparable basic model the links below might be of some assistance

www.statschat.org.nz/category/sports-statistics/

www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott/

Yeah, I use the same method of home team rating - away team rating + home ground advantage. Been following these guys: massey-peabody.com/ for a while on Twitter and my new favourite podcast is itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/bet-the-process/id1291010585?mt=2 Great one that comes out weekly where Jeff Ma and Rufus Peabody chat all things sports analytics.

For the Arg game I'm taking:

Arg -2.5 @2.0

And

Edit: Changed my mind on second bet. Taking the cap and also Arg by 1-12 @2.8

Wellington vs Auckland
Auckland +6 @1.85

Quill wrote: Wellington vs Auckland
Auckland +6 @1.85

Nice Quill!

In tomorrow's Mitre 10 cup match between the Manawatu Turbos and Hawkes Bay, Ngani Laumape lines up for the Turbos for the first time this year.

Otere Black (who has looked excellent following his return from injury) inside him at 10 and Rob Thompson (their best player) outside him at 13.

Have taken chunk of Turbos +5, and also smaller play on Turbos win at 2.60

@Oracle & Brent
At least Brent will have an excuse this week for not having watched your videos before the show tonight

Cettas wrote: @Oracle & Brent
At least Brent will have an excuse this week for not having watched your videos before the show tonight

I've also been checking Oracle's site throughout the day. It's not normal for him to miss videos. I hope he is alright.

Ruan Fourie wrote:

Cettas wrote: @Oracle & Brent
At least Brent will have an excuse this week for not having watched your videos before the show tonight

I've also been checking Oracle's site throughout the day. It's not normal for him to miss videos. I hope he is alright.

Howzit boys, sorry for the late response!!

I had a power failure on Tuesday and then last night it rained, so I did not get going until earlier tonight, the videos will be up in an hour and a half or so, around 19h30.

Thanks for the good wishes, I am fine and alive!!

Sorry for not being visible at the moment but travelling loads and this until the end of the year

For this week end one bet so far : Saints @ 1.87

This game against Tigers is a derby and will be played at Twickenham. The reason I go with Saints is that this game is a tribute to Rob Horne who lost usage of his right arm after a tackle last year in a game against Tigers and all funds will be given to him and his family. The motivation will be at his maximum and on top of that, Tigers have been quite poor and have a Champions Cup game while Saints are playing "only" the challenge cup (big game against Clermont I agree but Challenge Cup)

Brad Breath wrote:

Quill wrote: Wellington vs Auckland
Auckland +6 @1.85

Nice Quill!

In tomorrow's Mitre 10 cup match between the Manawatu Turbos and Hawkes Bay, Ngani Laumape lines up for the Turbos for the first time this year.

Otere Black (who has looked excellent following his return from injury) inside him at 10 and Rob Thompson (their best player) outside him at 13.

Have taken chunk of Turbos +5, and also smaller play on Turbos win at 2.60

Absolute shambles from the Turbos.
17-0 up then conceded 45 unanswered points ffs.
Laumape did nothing either.

Racing v Lyon:

Think Lyon should do a turn over as they play at home next week after being promoted to the Champions cup and so far the only team that have been able to win @ Racing's new stadium was Clermont.

Racing -9.5 @ 1.90

Also added Racing DNB & Castres DNB double @ 1.63

Under 46.5 total at Bath

Was eyeing up a decent punt on Goodhue to score a try.
Sadly he's been ruled out - Crotty to start and ALB onto the bench.

Think the cap is well set, so going with ABs by 11-20 @ 4

I hope nobody sold their grandmothers and followed my bet. Got that horribly wrong. Can't believe the Bokke ended up losing it though. Worst possible result.

So no New Zealand until the final (if they make it that far) next year at the World Cup. Springboks to triumph at 37/4 seems like good value to me at this rate of progress.

Otago vs Tasman

Tasman -11.5 @1.85 Pinnacle
Tasman -10.5 @1.85 bet365

Go to bed with Argentina 31-7 up at half time. Supposedly another winner. Wake up for the khabib fight and see Argentina somehow lose 34-45. Absolutely ridiculous second half performance.!

3-3 for the weekend so far. Zebre cost me again!

Sunday support for Stade +9 and Worcester -4.5.

Will wait for local caps before making my pics, could have added Quins and a few other wins if I waited for locals before making my picks.

After a couple of weeks where nothing could go wrong I ended up having my worst weekend of the year. Had big bets on both the All Blacks to beat the handicap and Argentina to win.

Ruan Fourie wrote: After a couple of weeks where nothing could go wrong I ended up having my worst weekend of the year. Had big bets on both the All Blacks to beat the handicap and Argentina to win.

Exactly the same Ruan. Steadily made some decent profits the last five weeks or so and then gave most of it back on the Boks, Argies and a bit of in-running cricket betting on the Protea batsmen this weekend. Eish!

5-3 weekend for me. European games on this weekend. Lets see how the model does on these. Will try and post my picks by Wednesday.

Hi there,

I have only just joined this forum. I have watched the Handicap show for the last few weeks and I have really enjoyed that show.

I just want to know, how do you setup a model?

I have been watching a few games from the Pro D2 division on the Eurosport Player site over here in the UK recently and I am very interested in setting up a few handicap type bets in games in that league, but I don't know a lot of stuff about the league. I have been impressed though by how good the standard actually is in that league. There are players in that league that are definitely Top 14, Pro 14 or Gallagher Premiership quality. Ben Botica and Timoci Matanavou are a couple of names that spring to mind.

Look forward to your reply.

Cheers