Currie Cup semi's, Mitre 10 Cup Week 4, Internationals + other

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4 years 8 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
Opening the rugby thread for what looks an interesting set of Currie Cup semi-finals. The dream final at Tafel Lager Park looks unlikely but is not impossible.

Fixtures

Lions v Griquas
Free State v Sharks

I will be doing a video with my handicap projections and a look at the outright betting in the next hour

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4 years 8 months ago #2 by Brent Graham
Here are my semi-final handicap projections

Lions -7.5 v Griquas
Free State -5.5 v Sharks

Video with a look at the differences between WSB and Sunbet in the outrights


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4 years 8 months ago #3 by threepeat
Mitre 10 Cup Early bet with 3P

Managed 5 out of 7 results last week in Mitre 10 Cup, and still finished short due to multis including one or three of Canterbury HTH (lost by 1) Auckland -6.5 (lost by 1) and followed Team GFTG with Griquas HTH (lost by 1). Unbelievable!

Betting early comes with higher risks and returns. I thought Wellington found a better team than expected v Canterbury.
Also, on tab nz you get very few options on a Monday.

This weeks early bet is Otago -11.5 @ $1.87. Easy bet option is Otago HTH @ $1.26 does not return enough, but a safe add to any multi.

Manawatu looked pedestrian against a rampant Tasman last weekend.
Manawatu have leaked over 100 points in only three games.
Manawatu Coach, Peter Russell does not seem to have won anything, and this will not change on Friday night.
Have assumed Josh Ioane does not get in the 31 man squad for AB RWC, announced this coming Wednesday.
No weather factor as played in covered stadium in Dunedin = big home field advantage with noisy student crowd.
No chance of Turbos winning the Ranfurly Shield.

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4 years 8 months ago #4 by bradie82
Hi All
Seeking some advice on the currie cup outright please as I have not seen many games this year
A bookmaker is proposing the following odds

Cheets 3
Sharks 3.25
Griquas 5
Lions 5.5

I reckon the Lions odd is far too high and they should reach the final but not sure if they have enough to beat Cheetahs or Sharks in final
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4 years 8 months ago #5 by Bookie Basher

bradie82 wrote: Hi All
Seeking some advice on the currie cup outright please as I have not seen many games this year
A bookmaker is proposing the following odds

Cheets 3
Sharks 3.25
Griquas 5
Lions 5.5

I reckon the Lions odd is far too high and they should reach the final but not sure if they have enough to beat Cheetahs or Sharks in final


Great prices on the Cheetahs and Lions.
Here is a comparison from WSB

9/10 Free State Cheetahs
5/2 Golden Lions
11/2 Sharks
7/1 Griquas
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4 years 8 months ago #6 by catsmug
The Lions have already beaten the Cheetahs so Im not sure how accurate that opinion is. If anything their squad has been strengthened since that game. Interestingly Liins unbeaten away from home this season so an away final may be a blessing in disguise

As you go through life it’s a long, long road. There’ll be joys and sorrows too
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4 years 8 months ago #7 by bradie82
And the outright just disappeared from the bookie....

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4 years 8 months ago #8 by hanrick
My early thoughts on this week's Mitre10 Cup:

Counties +11.5. Wellington overrated and Counties underrated imo.

Otago -11.5. Turbos rubbish.

Canterbury vs Southland. No betting out yet. If the handicap is 28.5 or higher I'll be on the plus. Will also have a look at the ht plus. Southland tend to start well and fade late.

Hawke's Bay -7.5. HB playing good rugby and the Taniwha struggling.

Waikato +5.5. I would have made this choice.

Bay of Plenty to win the game at 13/10. Harbour overrated and Steelers playing great rugby.

Tasman -11.5. Tasman will win by 20-plus

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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4 years 8 months ago #9 by mackem
Currie Cup outright's changing all the time but still some significant differences, here is the current best book locally as at time of this post

Cheetahs 15/10 Hollywood, BetXchange
Golden Lions 7/2 BetXchange
Sharks 4/1 WSB
Griquas 8/1 WSB

twitter: @goodforthegame
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4 years 8 months ago - 4 years 8 months ago #10 by The Vann
Going to go with the Lions. Odds are long enough to cover in a once-off final and they would probably be the shortest of the four sides to make the final.
Last edit: 4 years 8 months ago by The Vann.

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4 years 8 months ago #11 by Brent Graham
The early handicaps lining up with mine so sitting tight. I do think both away teams have strong chances mind you

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4 years 8 months ago #12 by CLrugby
Do you know what team the Southern King will lineup up against Georgia?

@Chris_Lacharge

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4 years 8 months ago #13 by Pierrebal
I did some research now into the Georgia v Kings match. All pointed me to Kings +21.5 with WSB.

Both teams are allowed to have a squad of 26 for the game. Georgia coaches said they are going to rotate quite a bit so we even may see almost two different teams.

Georgia starting line-up filled with youngsters and only 7 players that played their final Europe Cup game against Romania a couple of months ago.

Georgia play Scotland also at home of Saturday which will be their big one for the fans and is back to 23 players per team. Sounds like that will be the first team. Scotland only -6.5 favourites.

Kings have a decent squad, only place to see it is on their Twitter. Catrakilis, Banda, Mnisi, Super Sarel, Sithole, Ungerer, Bholi, Sexton, Burger, Astle, Lerm etc. So they can pretty much line-up with Pro14 team.

You can watch the game on Georgia Rugby's facebook page.

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4 years 8 months ago #14 by bradie82
This is the French squad for Friday friendly game against Italy

Médard - Huget, Guitoune, Fofana, Fickou - (o) Ntamack, (m) Dupont - Camara, Picamoles, Lauret - Taofifenua, Iturria, Slimani, Chat, Poirot (cap.)
Bench: Guirado, Baille, Setiano, Lambey, Cros, Serin, Vakatawa, Ramos.

Belleau and Rattez are probably out of the world cup but for the rest, impossible to know who s not going as Brunel is unpredictable.

Why is Fickou playing on the wing? Why is Iturria back on the second row when Brunel requested Clermont to make him play third row? 2 days ago Brunel said that the players who did not play yet will have their chance and here we are….I like the Guitoune/Fofana association but for the rest, I start thinking the Italy +16 is value.

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4 years 8 months ago #15 by CLrugby
Agree with you on the Georgia match but I am not confident with the Kings capacity to defend their rolling maul and pick and go approach. There is a King over 14.5 appealing as well, they play on perfect conditions and with all the changes the game will open

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4 years 8 months ago #16 by Quill
I've taken the following bets:

Kings +24.5 @1.80
Over 55 points @1.80
Kings over 14.5 points @1.80

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4 years 8 months ago #17 by Pierrebal
Hi Quill,

Which bookie is offering the points?

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4 years 8 months ago #18 by Quill

Pierrebal wrote: Hi Quill,

Which bookie is offering the points?

bet365

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4 years 8 months ago #19 by CLrugby
It looks like we all have same bets then :)

@Chris_Lacharge

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4 years 8 months ago #20 by Pierrebal
Got 16.5 with WSB and hit it hard. Now just have to sit through this Georgian commentary!

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4 years 8 months ago #21 by CLrugby
Same I got it at 14.5 and killed it on B365 as soon as I saw the Kings lineup and the fact that Catrakillis is kicking. This is a decent Georgian pack but their backline is the B choice (and the A choice is anyway relatively poor) with lot of local league players. Even the Kings HT and Kings FT were great value, on paper their starting XV is definitely better than the Georgian one. (But psychologically it is not easy to put money on the Kings). Let's see if we got that one right!

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4 years 8 months ago #22 by CLrugby

Pierrebal wrote: Got 16.5 with WSB and hit it hard. Now just have to sit through this Georgian commentary!



At least we only had to get 20min of Gerogian commentary :) What an easy one!

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4 years 8 months ago #23 by Brent Graham
Just caught up with this thread now - well played guys, never even knew about that one

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4 years 8 months ago #24 by BookieDave
Quick rundown as super busy!...All Pre Teams

Wellington -12.08 v Counties
-No Bet

Otago -21.29 v Manawatu
-Cant believe this opened -8.5!!!!!!!!!!!! ..Tried to get on but they kept rejecting my bet :( Insane. BET Otago -12.5

Canterbury -35.84 v Southland
-No Bet

Northland +4.81 v Hawkes Bay
-Small bet Northland +9.5

Waikato +4.02 v Auckland
-No bet

Harbour -4.04 v BOP
-No bet

Taranaki +7.18 v Tasman
-Small bet Taranaki +11.5

OUTRIGHTS

TASMAN $1.79
AUCKLAND $4.45
WELLINGTON $10.46
CANTERBURY $17.56
HARBOUR $26.11
WAIKATO $52.23
COUNTIES $187.76

TARANAKI $1.93
BOP $3.88
HAWKES BAY $8.10
OTAGO $13.23
NORTHLAND $54.01
MANAWATU $148.79
SOUTHLAND $9999
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4 years 8 months ago #25 by BradNZ12
I’ve got Otago -11.5 think that’s an easy beat, Otago at home and a shield challenge will be fired up. Turbos haven’t been very good.

I also went Hawke’s Bay -9.5, the line has now dropped to -7.5. I think Hawke’s Bay win this and have been playing good rugby, they beat Otago and drew with Wellington. While northland has got a hiding from Auckland and Taranaki. They only beat Southland by 10 points.

I’m unsure on the auk v Waikato game I thought the -4.5 for auk was a solid bet. Interested to hear any thoughts on this or any other games.

Cheers
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4 years 8 months ago #26 by ThoughtsOnSports
Time to load up on the RWC loot.

Canterbury - Southland. 2pm NZ time kick off.
Over 50.5 @0.89
Over 56.5 @16/10
Southland over 6.5 points @ evens
Otago -11.5
Sharks +6.5 (GG) @8/10

Eat your heart out.

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports

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4 years 8 months ago #27 by Brad Breath
Not at all convinced the Turbos have the right game plan for a match under a roof.
A second row playing 6 and a 6 playing 7.

On board the Otago -12

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4 years 8 months ago #28 by mackem
Golden Lions v Griquas Currie Cup semi final preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Currie-Cup-2019/gol...betting-preview.html

2 units, Lions win by 1-12 points, 7/4 with Sunbet

(Unit scale 1-5)

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 8 months ago #29 by Quill
I'm on Wellington today.
Wellington -11 @1.87
Wellington over 33.5 points @1.95
Wellington over 4.5 tries @1.68

All with bet365.

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4 years 8 months ago #30 by hanrick
Counties +11.5 at 9/10

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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4 years 8 months ago #31 by BookieDave

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Time to load up on the RWC loot.

Canterbury - Southland. 2pm NZ time kick off.
Over 50.5 @0.89
Over 56.5 @16/10
Southland over 6.5 points @ evens
Otago -11.5
Sharks +6.5 (GG) @8/10

Eat your heart out.


Where on earth are you getting the game totals from!! Who is up!!>?

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4 years 8 months ago #32 by Wies Bang
Canterbury vs Southland

Over 50.5 points

Canterbury should be desperate for 5 points , even if they are playing terrible rugby at the moment.

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4 years 8 months ago #33 by Wies Bang

BookieDave wrote:

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Time to load up on the RWC loot.

Canterbury - Southland. 2pm NZ time kick off.
Over 50.5 @0.89
Over 56.5 @16/10
Southland over 6.5 points @ evens
Otago -11.5
Sharks +6.5 (GG) @8/10

Eat your heart out.


Where on earth are you getting the game totals from!! Who is up!!>?



Betway

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4 years 8 months ago #34 by BookieDave

Wies Bang wrote:

BookieDave wrote:

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Time to load up on the RWC loot.

Canterbury - Southland. 2pm NZ time kick off.
Over 50.5 @0.89
Over 56.5 @16/10
Southland over 6.5 points @ evens
Otago -11.5
Sharks +6.5 (GG) @8/10

Eat your heart out.


Where on earth are you getting the game totals from!! Who is up!!>?



Betway


I would pay serious $$$$$ to get my hands on one of those accounts!!

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4 years 8 months ago #35 by mackem
The Handicap, live on Thursday night from 21:00



IF you wish to comment on the show whilst it is live please use this link to our Youtube channel

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4 years 8 months ago #36 by mackem
Cheetahs v Sharks Currie Cup semi final preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Currie-Cup-2019/fre...betting-preview.html

2 units Cheetahs to win by 1-12 points, 17/10 BetXchange

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4 years 8 months ago #37 by southpaw
Italy +18.5 @ 9/10 Hollywoodbets

Think this line is too big and fancy it to be much tighter.

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4 years 8 months ago - 4 years 8 months ago #38 by Brent Graham
Will discuss the internationals in tonights edition of The Handicap - Click Here to join Hanrick and Gerhard at 21h00 with Couch lurking in the live comments

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Last edit: 4 years 8 months ago by Brent Graham.

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4 years 8 months ago #39 by hanrick
Still Otago -14.5 at 10/11 available at Sportingbet. Get on

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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4 years 8 months ago #40 by Geros
Great call..couldnt watch the game but when counties were leading after half time it felt good. Last weeks Mitre 10 was not the normal ‘money for nothing’..
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4 years 8 months ago #41 by Zambusta
Otago -8.5 2nd half @2.06
Turbos very poor second half team and Otago the opposite.

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4 years 8 months ago #42 by BookieDave
With you here, can you believe this line opened -8.5! insane...

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4 years 8 months ago #43 by threepeat
Anyone need cash to fund RWC betting? Rugby fever growing every week. Wales v Boks & England v AB's for me in the semi-finals.

Opportunities to pick up easy cash at good returns in the Mitre 10 Cup are getting harder and harder to find, as the bookies close down the odds everywhere.

Lots of good Mitre 10 Cup picking in the forum but nobody punting with confidence.

Here is the 3P Mitre 10 Cup value bet.

Otago 13+ @ $1.62 into Hawkes Bay -18.5 @ $3.10 = $5.02

Got on Otago -11.5 on Monday in my best early pick @ $1.87 (refer thread), and accepting the higher line and lower payout for this double.

The Taniwha is a supernatural creature in Maori mythology, which lives in deep water. Well, if you haven't noticed, the Taniwha is more like the Lochness monster, yet to be sighted in defence, attack or anywhere else this Mitre 10 Rugby Cup.
In fact the Taniwha have leaked more points than a Manawatu turbine. Taniwha are cellar dwellers, together with Stags @ Turbos, and -7.5 line is a gift. Take the easy double, the value double or both!

Head Coach Mark Ozich of the Magpies is a super-nova of Mitre Cup coaching, combining his professional teacher training (like Graham Henry), people skills, Razor R enthusiasm & love of the game. This is evidenced by all the Hawkes Bay youth he has been able to retain within the province. Players want to play for him and their teammates.

Magpies are unbeaten this season, including holding premier team Wellington to a draw. They are youthful and get better every week.

Cheers 3P

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4 years 8 months ago #44 by Geros
Loanshark Threepeat?

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4 years 8 months ago #45 by Geros
Dont know about Otago -15, Manuwatu will want to correct last weeks performance? Then again Otere Black vs Josh Ioane there can only be one winner. Otere's Defence is another weak spot. Are there other reasons to back Otago as they have not been up to standard themselves..

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4 years 8 months ago #46 by bradie82
Otago & over 59.5 @ 2.20

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4 years 8 months ago #47 by hanrick

hanrick wrote: Still Otago -14.5 at 10/11 available at Sportingbet. Get on


Have added Otago to win and under 60.5 points at 21/20. When Glen Jackson has the whistle you go unders. And contrary to what you might expect, games under the roof in Dunedin tend to be unders games.

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4 years 8 months ago - 4 years 8 months ago #48 by bradie82

hanrick wrote:

hanrick wrote: Still Otago -14.5 at 10/11 available at Sportingbet. Get on


Have added Otago to win and under 60.5 points at 21/20. When Glen Jackson has the whistle you go unders. And contrary to what you might expect, games under the roof in Dunedin tend to be unders games.


Indeed but the last 3 Otago vs Manawatu ended played under the roof ended up with 93, 63 and 70 points, with Glenn Jackson referring the 93 and 63 points game so depends on which side you look. GL for your bet.
Last edit: 4 years 8 months ago by bradie82.

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4 years 8 months ago #49 by bradie82

southpaw wrote: Italy +18.5 @ 9/10 Hollywoodbets

Think this line is too big and fancy it to be much tighter.


I m with you on that one - Italy brought their strongest squad while France is still doing some experiment.

Italy +18.5 @ 2

I think the cut tries (6.5) and points ( 50.5) are quite high.
Both Brunel and Fickou explained that they would not go for try systematically but will sit on those 2 for now and share before the game if I take them.

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4 years 8 months ago #50 by Thrasher6
Jeez...Otago are inept...

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