Rugby World Cup - Pool matches 20-29 September, Pro 14 + other

Seems like the handicaps have all been too big for the first couple of games. Eng made loads of mistakes and could well have reached their minus but the slippery ball and box kicking does seem like it slows down the scoreboard. Georgia wont be a walkover and 28 seems too high for me..getting onto Georgia +.

For tomorrow I've gone for:

Georgia +28 at 21/20 Lads
Parkes try at 21/10 Lads
Georgia try in each half at 5/2 Hills

I used my boost option on those Lads prices; +28 is widely available at evens or you can get +29 at 10/11 with Fred. Lads have cut the 2/1 on Parkes but he's still that price with Sportingbet.

Wales clearly capable of covering that line but, based on past World Cups and this one to date, I'd say it's more likely that not that they'll fall short tomorrow.

Parkes looks a bit generous to me at 2/1 or more. The other bet seems ok though might be a bit muggy given I was tempted by a free bet offer!

Points conceded in this year's 6 nations:
Wales 65
Ireland 100
England 101
France 118
Scotland 125
Italy 167

Backing Wales defence along with a forecast of rain and wind tomorrow in Toyota.

Georgia under 10,5 points

England v USA Betting 8 of 10 USA +38.5 (Thursday 26)

Eddie Jones fielded First XV against Tonga so has to rotate.
EJ failed to deliver statement of intent.
England on four day turn around.
Thinking England will be content with the W, Argie & France to follow
USA will benefit from first game RWC euphoria.
USA tight five mainly English Premiership.
USA better than Tonga IMO

Betting Wales First half -12.5 v Georgia @ $1.87 (2 of 10)
Betting Drop Goal in Game 9-1 (5 of 10) Great payout!

Thinking Biggar has distance and history, so will take a shot to build confidence for playoffs.

threepeat wrote: Betting Wales First half -12.5 v Georgia @ $1.87 (2 of 10)
Betting Drop Goal in Game 9-1 (5 of 10) Great payout!

Thinking Biggar has distance and history, so will take a shot to build confidence for playoffs.

Just got cut off by tab nz when trying to add to my Dan Biggar play - Must be a good bet!

Series of early winning bets (first thread) on RWC must have caught their attention.
Problem is tab nz is a government monopoly.

Georgia +14.5 HT @ 9/10 for me today

A very good RWC start with both Italian and Argentinian caps so will go easy on next games

For today, 3 small punts
First scoring play penalty wales @ 3.55 on 888
Over 1.5 penalties scored @ 1.66 on Bet365
Under 7.5 tries @ 1.83 on Skybet

All over that USA +37.5

Eddie Jones interview stating they don't need to make statements and its just a 4 day turnaround.
Last RWC for teams in "Same Spot" of a 4 day turnaround between game 1 and game 2.

FRANCE
Game 1 - 19 Sep - Beat Italy 32-10 (Covered cap of -15.5)
Game 2 - 23 Sep - Beat Romania 38-11 (Cap was -47.5 so Romania covered with ease)

SCOTLAND
Game 1 - 23 Sep - Beat Japan 45-10 (Covered cap of -13.5)
Game 2 - 27 Sep - Beat USA 39-16 (Just missed cap of -23.5)

AUSTRALIA
Game 1 - 23 Sep - Beat Fiji 28-13 (Failed to cover -25.5 cap)
Game 2 - 27 Sep - Beat Uruguay 65-3 (Failed to cover -66.5 cap)

Throw in the fact that Englands next game is Massive against the Argies and it all points to a comfortable win for the Poms but not a demolition.

COME ON YOU YANKS!!!

threepeat wrote: Betting Drop Goal in Game 9-1 (5 of 10) Great payout!

Thinking Biggar has distance and history, so will take a shot to build confidence for playoffs.

Like the sound of that, taken 15/2 with PP.

RuggaBugga wrote: All over that USA +37.5

Eddie Jones interview stating they don't need to make statements and its just a 4 day turnaround.
Last RWC for teams in "Same Spot" of a 4 day turnaround between game 1 and game 2.

FRANCE
Game 1 - 19 Sep - Beat Italy 32-10 (Covered cap of -15.5)
Game 2 - 23 Sep - Beat Romania 38-11 (Cap was -47.5 so Romania covered with ease)

SCOTLAND
Game 1 - 23 Sep - Beat Japan 45-10 (Covered cap of -13.5)
Game 2 - 27 Sep - Beat USA 39-16 (Just missed cap of -23.5)

AUSTRALIA
Game 1 - 23 Sep - Beat Fiji 28-13 (Failed to cover -25.5 cap)
Game 2 - 27 Sep - Beat Uruguay 65-3 (Failed to cover -66.5 cap)

Throw in the fact that Englands next game is Massive against the Argies and it all points to a comfortable win for the Poms but not a demolition.

COME ON YOU YANKS!!!

I agree on the yanks plus but dont share the same sentiments behind the reasoning. I think Eddie Jones is saving face by saying that. He was clearly frustrated by England's performance based on his smashing the table antics lol

Smalls on Josh Adams to score in each half at 9.0 (boosted at Will Hill)

And modest stake Wales -14 2nd half cap

It may look like I've been a bit indecisive with my bets on tomorrow's games but I'd say I've split my stake across the main "shortie" bets and had smaller bets (sometimes smaller than I'd have liked) on the long shots.

Russia +31 at 21/20 with Lads
Russia >10.5 points at 21/20 with Lads
Russia >1.5 tries at 27/20 with Lads
Buy Russia tries squared at 3.7 with SX
Russia to win race to 10 points 9/1 Betway
Russian player man of the match 20/1 Betway
Russia most converted tries 17/1 888
At least 1 yellow card for each team at 11/2 Betway

I'm expecting Russia to at least attempt a more expansive game tomorrow and hoping that fatigue from a short turnaround won't be too much of a factor. Samoa have only won 6 of their 27 games over the last 4 years and only 1 (by 51 v Germany) by more than 20. The yellow card bet is only 5/2 with Hills.

Forecast for Kumagaya is few showers on the afternoon and heavy rain from 7 PM with a kick off at 7.15 so despite not being a fan of unders, will throw few on :

First try after 10" @ 1.91 on William Hill
Under 8.5 tries @ 1.47 on 888
Under 47.5 points Samoa @ 1.57 on 888
Under 4.5 tries 2nd HT @ 2.20 on betclic

bradie82 wrote: Forecast for Kumagaya is few showers on the afternoon and heavy rain from 7 PM with a kick off at 7.15 so despite not being a fan of unders, will throw few on :

First try after 10" @ 1.91 on William Hill
Under 8.5 tries @ 1.47 on 888
Under 47.5 points Samoa @ 1.57 on 888
Under 4.5 tries 2nd HT @ 2.20 on betclic

888 going 2.5 for 1st try after 13:00 if that's of interest to anyone. Seems a decent jump in price for the extra 3 minutes.

bradie82 wrote: Forecast for Kumagaya is few showers on the afternoon and heavy rain from 7 PM with a kick off at 7.15 so despite not being a fan of unders, will throw few on :

Hi Bradie, We must have looked at slightly different Kumagaya weather forcasts, because the three day forcast suggest rain tapering off tonight.

Entertainment betting tonight: 3 of 10 units on Tim Nanai Williams to score an anytime try. Hot stepping NZ & Samoan Sevens player too classy for the Russians. SA punters will remember him from five seasons with the Chiefs. Got on @ $1.91 two hours ago and line has already moved in.

Betting 1 unit of 10 on Samoa -28,5 @ $1.90 tab nz. Low confidence due to weather and decent showing by Ruskies in first game.
But Ruskies going to get tackled a lot harder tonight (they have never felt the might of the Manu Samoa tackles) and Pacific Island Teams all on the improve. Thinking Japan better than Samoa, but they had a bad opening game. Cheers 3P

Mitre 10 Cup Double: 3 of 10 tab nz Tasman at home -12.5, with Bay Of Plenty at home to win paying $2.89

@ 3P
I use accuweather which has been the most accurate forecast website for the past few years for me.
I checked again and heavy rain to start at 7 pm tonight but not the same story on other websites indeed

Samoa -29.5 for me.

Fiji v Uruguay - conditions should be good.

Anytime try - Radrada @ 10/11
Anytime try - Nakarawa @ 6/4

both Sunbet

Followed on Radradra @ 1.91 with 888

On Samoa -28 today, think they'll have far too much power for the Russians and their 4 day turnaround

Taking Samoa -15.5 2nd half cap. Same Ruskies team that played against Japan, no way they can keep up the intensity on a 5 day turn-around. Samoa will run riot in the 2nd 40

Adding a couple of units of Samoa First Half Lead (-13.5) @ 1.78.
Four Day turnaround will kick in almost immediately with same 15 starting as Japan Game.

Well done Brent. Russia didn't quite score enough points to put me into profit but landed the handicap and yellow card bet so no harm done.

Can't call the handicap tomorrow, would plump for Uruguay +31 if you pushed me but not willing to trust them with my hard earned

.I might be buying into the narrative (players being lucky to get away with yellow rather than red) but tomorrow's game certainly won't be one for shrinking violets. With that in mind, I've bought bookings at 16 with SX (was 14 just before I bet, 19 with SPIN) and had a bit on a red card at just better than 9/1 with Hills (dutching 16/1 and 25/1 for which team will get the first red card). Hills go 7/2 for a yellow card in both halves and 4/1 a yellow card for each team which might not be a bad alternative angle to the spread bet. Red card is 9/1 in a couple of other places.

Only other bet so far is Veitokani to score a try at 5/4 with Fred.

Not a bad morning on the Samoan game so will keep going with small stakes on few bets

Radradra anytime @ 1.91 on 888
Kessler anytime @ 10 on William Hill
A converted try in each 20 min period @ 2.30 on WH

I like Kessler cause he scored few in the Nation cup

bradie82 wrote: Not a bad morning on the Samoan game so will keep going with small stakes on few bets

Radradra anytime @ 1.91 on 888
Kessler anytime @ 10 on William Hill
A converted try in each 20 min period @ 2.30 on WH

I like Kessler cause he scored few in the Nation cup

Thanks, Kessler looks a great bet, followed at 10/1 with Fred and had a bit on the brace at 130/1 with Lads (boost from 100/1). That's 150/1 with 365 if you can get on. Also gone for a buy of Uruguay front 5 try minutes at 12 with SX. The other 4 players don't bring much to the table but enough for me to get involved.

It seems that there is just a few of us dabbling in the minnow games. Yellow cards definitely cost me small bets last night. Samoan tackles were definitely head high so not complaining. Not red as attacking player was dropping down made them cards yellow??? Tell that to Scooter Barrett.

Last game Fiji v Uruguay was in England in November 2018, Fiji winning 68-7.
Noted that Fiji has made 12 changes to starting line as they are in a must win v Georgia in the next game for RWC auto qualify.

Cannot believe Uruguay have had enough time to improve since Nov 2018.
Full game is on Youtube if anyone interested, and it looks like boys v men.

Betting 3 of 10 Fiji - 31 @ $1.90
Betting 7 of 10 Fiji -24.5 @ $1.50 Cheers 3P

Well done Brent on your Uruguay 11+ points - bolted home, and its only half time.

Got of a Uruguay insurance bet @$6 and a Fiji -13.5 to cover my earlier bets, just b4 half time.

Have taken Namibia +59.5 at 17/20 against Boks

hanrick wrote: Have taken Namibia +59.5 at 17/20 against Boks

Taken same bet @ slightly less odds @ 5/6. Full change to Boks side, I think this cap comes in by about 7 points.

Uruguay have seriously improved since Nov 2018! WOW

hanrick wrote: Have taken Namibia +59.5 at 17/20 against Boks

Have added Namibia +25.5 ht cap at evens

Still shaking my head at that Fiji performance. That second half move where the Fijians were 3 on 1 to score and the Fijian player passed it to the Uruguay player was next level poor. A short turn around time doesn’t excuse that.

USA +34.5
Canada +20.5
England u45.5
Tonga +29.5 vs Arg
Not RWC but Cheetahs to beat Glasgow at home this weekend screams golden.

Going for a double on both games tomorrow and throwing a n a fun bet, both on William Hill

At least 1 try in each 20 minutes period ENG vs USA x Over 1.5 tries in each half ITA vs CAN @ 2.03
At Least 1 converted try in each 20 minutes period on both game @ 7

I like Cheetahs @ 1.83 and Scotland -14.5 vs Samoa but will sit on it for the time being

bradie82 wrote:
I like Cheetahs @ 1.83 and Scotland -14.5 vs Samoa but will sit on it for the time being

I too like the Cheetahs and the Jocks -14.5, though can only see -16.5

Where is the -14.5 Bradie?

Glasgow have 12 players away at the World Cup.If Cheetahs cannot capitalize now while they have Currie Cup momentum then they gonna battle this season.

I am with you on Cheetahs even if they have always struggled against Glasgow. I am also on the Kings (I know...), Cardiff has a relatively poor squad and highly depend on their top 5/6 players. The Kings have a decent squad this year, they should take it @1.80 thoughts?

Brad Breath wrote:

bradie82 wrote:
I like Cheetahs @ 1.83 and Scotland -14.5 vs Samoa but will sit on it for the time being

I too like the Cheetahs and the Jocks -14.5, though can only see -16.5

Where is the -14.5 Bradie?

I saw it yesterday on bet365 but just saw the cut moved to 16.5

England/USA:

Taken the +34 handicap at evens and bought USA front 5 try minutes at 8 with SPIN. That's largely on the back of Joe Taufete'e who has scored 18 tries in 16 starts for the USA! Not the worst anytime bet at 9/2 but I just missed 6/1 with Lads so will stick to the spread bet (with a quid on him scoring a brace at 130/1 with Lads).

In the other game I've just had small interest bets on Canada 4+ tries at 7/1 PP and both teams 2+ tries in each half at 66/1 with PP, Van der Merwe brace and hat trick at 15/1 and 130/1 with Lads.

RuggaBugga wrote: Uruguay have seriously improved since Nov 2018! WOW

Bugga!!!!

Half Time Points Start Mitre 10 Cup: Taranaki v Southland Rugby UnionThu, 26 Sep 2019, 7:35pm
Taranaki (-9.5) @ 1.90
Feature Options World Cup: Italy v Canada Rugby UnionThu, 26 Sep 2019, 7:45pm
Giulio Bisegni to Score the 1st, 2nd OR 3rd Try in the Match @ 3.00
Combined Odds of Double 4.70

Feature option is a tab nz special. Suggest alternate of adding Taranaki at Home -9 half time to whatever RWC special available at your bookie.

Italy V Canada

Italy is running out a B squad I count only 2 in the starting lineup that started last against Namibia. Italy shut it down in the 44 minute in that game as soon as the bonus point was locked up. I expect a similar tactic Vs Canada not confident to back Canada in the + its probably about right but Ill have a light play on Canada Over 15.5 points. There should be opportunities for Canada in the second half with what is likely be an Italy C team closing out the game.