NH Rugby 14-16 August

Seasons resumes next week, games all behind closed doors. This mostly wipes out home ground advantage, and one away bet stands out for me -

Sale -2.5 @ 0.81 with Sunbet.

Sale have a big squad, one of the biggest. They have Faf back and ready to fire, and have Manu Tuilagi in midfield after signing last month. They hammered Quins last time out 48-10 without De Klerk or de Jäger, and Sale will be gunning for wins every game in coming weeks to try get to top of table.

Don’t know why I posted rugby twice in title, probably the bet got me excited. Brent feel free to correct.

I agree Southpaw. Sale to win looks like a great bet.

I also can't see Leicester losing to Exeter by more than 18 points (which is the spread on Betfair) the next day.

They were rubbish last year but I expect them to be a different proposition under Steve Borthwick. Still expect them to lose but definitely not by 18+

Been a keen follower of NH rugby for the last 18 months. My early thoughts are:

Sale -2.5 is beaut. Empty crowd and Sale with a big dominant forward back. They have the best defence in the comp and are in with a sniff for the title.

Tigers +17.5 - Chiefs lethal at Sandy Park but this cap is too big. Even after losing Manu, Tigers have enough to beat this cap.

Gloucester -2.5: They have strengthened nicely and should beat this cap.

Saints -5.5 vs Wasps. Saints have added some beef with Isiekwe to compliment their backs. Wasps are poor with an unsettled side and no continuity. Wasps very poor on the road.

Munster +9.5 - Munster have strengthened nicely with DdA and RG Synman added to their ranks. In a Irish derby, this cap is too big.

Those are my initial plays, if I had to choose in the others I would go Edinburgh -3.5 vs Glasgow and Scarlets -6.5 vs Cardiff.

Big Bet Leicester Tigers +18.5 v Exeter Chiefs

The bookies have got this one wrong due to their failure to comprehend the re-birth of the Tigers.
Post lockdown Steve Borthwick has taken the coaching helm and he will make a huge difference. He has completed an eight year apprenticeship under Eddie Jones in Japan and then England. Steve is a proven world class coach.
Tigers have lost 23 players and imported 17 since the lockdown. I have taken note as they include former Crusader and Fiji centre/wing Nemani Nadolo (replaces Manu) and hardest working Crusader #6 Jordan Taufua (AB selected). Tigers have retained key current or former English Internationals, including Dan Cole, George Ford, Ben Young & Tom Youngs.

Margin is way too big - +18.5 = three trys with two conversions. Reminds me of my successful early call last week on Highlanders +15.5 The new look team has an inspirational coach and a hard edge. Even though they are playing the current #1 Team in the Premiership Tigers will come out "fit as" and will want to make a statement. They will not need to catch Chiefs by surprise but they may very well do, as Chiefs have #2 Team Sale Sharks the following week, and will only want to do enough to win. Cheers 3P

PS: Noted that top try scorer for the Canes in SR Aotearoa and former Stormer, Van Wyk is the latest recruit. Borthwick will continue to attract top talent. Bookies will not offer +18.5 on the Tigers ever again under Steve Borthwick!! Get on it.

"Four Coach" Multi - Combines all selected single bets @ 11.94 $ xxx

Sale Sharks (-3.5) @ 1.80 Points Start Harlequins v Sale Sharks

Leicester (+18.5) @ 1.80 Points Start Exeter Chiefs v Leicester

Northampton (-5.5) @ 1.92 Points Start Northampton v Wasps

Scarlets (-7.5) @ 1.92 Points Start Scarlets v Cardiff Blues (played a week later than the rest)

Potential Return 11.94 X $ xxxx

Want to consider Pat Lam's Bristol Bears v Saracens but no bet offered by tab nz at this time. Cheers 3P

We're pretty aligned with TOS and 3P.

First 2 strikes on:

Saints -4.5 vs Wasps

Tigers +17.5 v exeter

Also liking:

Sharks -2.5 v Quins

Scarlets -7.5 v. Blues (this game is only next week)

southpaw wrote: Seasons resumes next week, games all behind closed doors. This mostly wipes out home ground advantage, and one away bet stands out for me -

Sale -2.5 @ 0.81 with Sunbet.

Sale have a big squad, one of the biggest. They have Faf back and ready to fire, and have Manu Tuilagi in midfield after signing last month. They hammered Quins last time out 48-10 without De Klerk or de Jäger, and Sale will be gunning for wins every game in coming weeks to try get to top of table.

Line moved out a nudge to 3.5, hopefully a positive sign. Also looking at points this weekend across most games - pitches are firm and in fantastic condition all over country, this should make for high scoring games than usual for the Premiership.

I am not sure why there is so much appetite for the Tigers but I might be totally wrong.
First of all, this is almost a brand new squad with 27 players leaving the club so it means all new players will have to adapt to new ways of working, new systems,.. and we all know it takes time.
Then, Tigers lost for few key players including Manu, May and Veainu, Eastmond so not easy to replace. A player like Nadolo is not the top players he was, Van Wyk is not there yet, Lavinini will get at least a yellow card per game and Taufua has been very weak since he joined the Tigers last year. So on paper a decent starting 15 I can’t see It working perfectly after only few weeks of training, and then the substitutes are not as good as the bench other team have.
On the other hand, Exeter has kept the same frame, adding only 2/3 players and losing only few and I think that will make a huge difference in the first few weeks. They have been smashing team like Saints, Bath, La Rochelle in the last home games and if they managed to get a fast start, that could be a very long afternoon for the Tigers.
Finally, it is important to remember than next week, teams will be playing 3 games in 10 days and if Exeter leads by 10 points HT, I don’t think Borthwick will keep his key players on the pitch with 2 home games following this one.
Anyway wishing you all good luck with your cap but thought I would share my pov

southpaw wrote:

southpaw wrote: Seasons resumes next week, games all behind closed doors. This mostly wipes out home ground advantage, and one away bet stands out for me -

Sale -2.5 @ 0.81 with Sunbet.

Sale have a big squad, one of the biggest. They have Faf back and ready to fire, and have Manu Tuilagi in midfield after signing last month. They hammered Quins last time out 48-10 without De Klerk or de Jäger, and Sale will be gunning for wins every game in coming weeks to try get to top of table.

Line moved out a nudge to 3.5, hopefully a positive sign. Also looking at points this weekend across most games - pitches are firm and in fantastic condition all over country, this should make for high scoring games than usual for the Premiership.

Agree with you South on the over points
I will be looking at first half points in priority as I wonder if we would not face the same type of game as per Super Rugby wit high scoring first half and low points in second

Bradie,

You make some good points but the flip side of this is if Exeter get up by 10 to 14 points then I can't imagine they will be keen to keep their best players on either, especially as they play Sale in a top of the table clash next week.

Dizzle wrote: Bradie,

You make some good points but the flip side of this is if Exeter get up by 10 to 14 points then I can't imagine they will be keen to keep their best players on either, especially as they play Sale in a top of the table clash next week.

Fully agree with your statement but I believe the Exeter squad depth would still make the difference if both team were to rest their key players
Anyway won t touch that H but if it drops dowm to 13 and with the squad news I might give it a go

For those who aren't aware - Leicester Tigers signed Aled Walters, the Welsh fitness guru who was part of Rassie's SA world cup winning team and worked previously alongside him at Munster.

He has only officially started in the last couple of weeks but apparently he sent all of their COVID mini-preseason running programmes to them prior to this.

So expect Leicester not to fade out of as many games in the last 15 to 20 mins as they did previously.

And more importantly lets hope that they can stay within 18 points of the Chiefs on Saturday!

Good luck all.

Dizzle

Strong on under 48.5 at 19/20 in Quins - Sharks.

Bit of rain about and Sale have the best defense in the comp.

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Strong on under 48.5 at 19/20 in Quins - Sharks.

Bit of rain about and Sale have the best defense in the comp.

I m with you on the under - took the 49.5 @1.70 on 888 but the rains stopped for about an hour now so lets see how it will be in 2h

Harlequins under 20.5 points 22/25. Would have won in 14 of Sale’s last 16 games

Harlequins under 20.5 points 22/25. Would have won in 14 of Sale’s last 16 games

Under 48.5 points in Bath v London Irish

&

Under 46.5 in Worcester v Gloucester

Sale were woeful as was the game itself and the ref. But really just Sale bad. Got that wrong and don’t mind holding hands up when it happens.

Rubber stamping that under in the Bath game.

Adding Bears 1-12 at 18/10.

Also taking Bath - LI under 53.5 onto Bears outright victory at 11/10.

Bath vs London Irish
The forecast does not seem as bad as expected but you never know what it will really be
However, I like that Bath backline, very explosive, while London Irish squad is quite weak I reckon and I think Bath will target a bonus point try here

Bath over 3.5 tries @ 2

Well done to all Tigers backer!! Surprised the Exeter bench did not make the the difference I was expecting but believe Chiefs will be hard to beat this season

I know that late posting isn’t a great look - but it’s more to say thanks to SOAP...

Thanks to his under points tip for Bristol vs Saracens, I saw the weather and placed No First Tryscorer 100/1. Luckily the penalty try doesn’t affect that! Only had £2 on, but can’t complain about a 100/1 winner

Thanks again @son_of_a_punt

Saints vs Wasps

Over 5.5 tries @ 1.91 on WH
Forecast is 50/50 but those 2 teams have the potential to score loads

Northampton (-4.5) & Under (48.5) Points
Points Start/Total Combined Points Double Northampton v Wasps @ 3.40 tab nz

1) Inclement weather at Franklins Garden. 2) Good home teams have been beating good away teams, in games with less than forty points in resumption round, refer Exeter, Bristol & Quins games. Confidence 80% Same as 4 from 5 home wins so far this round. No crowds not stopping Premiership Teams defending their home turf, except woeful Worcester. Cheers 3P

Thanks Northerner!

That’s an epic punt, well done on cashing in there! A proper bullish bet for a bullish reward.

But, all thanks must go to Thoughts on Sports! Love that mans work spotting the shitty weather, and it paid huge dividends. All the best for the rest of the weekend gents - we still on the early Saints -4.5 , otherwise will wait for in play.

Adios

Cracking weekend so far.

Already on Saints -4.5 but a tad nervous as it was placed with the premise of clear skies.

Adding Saints 1-12 at 15/10

Saints - Wasps under 5.5 tries and under 46.5

bradie82 wrote: Saints vs Wasps

Over 5.5 tries @ 1.91 on WH
Forecast is 50/50 but those 2 teams have the potential to score loads

Adding the over 42.5 @ 1.90 on Sportnation
Weather is good so far and had the over in mind from the beginning of the week