Rugby 28 Sep to 4 Oct: Premiership, Pro 14 wk 1, Top 14, Mitre 10 Cup

Blog won't be out in time for tomorrow's game so here goes:

Gallagher Premiership Round 21

Comp performance:
Since break - 30/43 = 70%
2019/2020 season - 76/121=63%

Harlequins vs Wasps -7.5
Stig line: -9
Tip: Wasps minus 3.5 @ 0.94
Book: playabets.co.za

TheBettingStig wrote:
Harlequins vs Wasps -7.5
Stig line: -9
Tip: Wasps minus 3.5 @ 0.94
Book: playabets.co.za

I saw this opened at -9. Checked a couple of hours later it was still -9. Checked an hour later and it was -3.

Anyone know why the big shift??

First NZ TAB Mitre 10 Cup caps

BOP v Auckland -7.5
Counties v Manawatu +7.5
Northland v Taranaki -6.5
Canterbury v Welly +2.5
Otago v HB +1.5
Southland v Waikato -10.5
Nth Harbour v Tasman -15.5

Have taken a bit of Northland +6.5. Taranaki fall from grace post-Barrett brothers set to continue with Vaia (their best player yesterday) likely back with ABs and captain Te Walden leaving the field with what looked like serious injury....

ballaholic wrote: First NZ TAB Mitre 10 Cup caps

BOP v Auckland -7.5 (+9.5)
Counties v Manawatu +7.5 (-7.5)
Northland v Taranaki -6.5 (+7.5)
Canterbury v Welly +2.5 (-1.5)
Otago v HB +1.5 (-0.5)
Southland v Waikato -10.5 (+10.5)
Nth Harbour v Tasman -15.5 (+15.5)

Have taken a bit of Northland +6.5. Taranaki fall from grace post-Barrett brothers set to continue with Vaia (their best player yesterday) likely back with ABs and captain Te Walden leaving the field with what looked like serious injury....

Here we have small differences, adding what SK is offering in bracket.

I am also on Northland H, at first view I also like Counties ML, Canterbury ML, North Harbour H and will keep an eye on BOP H+ depending on injury return and lineup they field.

Brad Breath wrote:

TheBettingStig wrote:
Harlequins vs Wasps -7.5
Stig line: -9
Tip: Wasps minus 3.5 @ 0.94
Book: playabets.co.za

I saw this opened at -9. Checked a couple of hours later it was still -9. Checked an hour later and it was -3.

Anyone know why the big shift??

Mainly because of lineups, Quins go with their best possible team and that is the farewell match of Robshaw so with the legend he is you can be sure they won’t take that one lightly despite not playing for anything, first match as well as starter for the 2 SA players so they have a strong lineup with also the return of Ashton, Marler is out and Care is bench. Wasps going for the win as well, but few guys out like Launchbury, on paper a 45/55 game imo.

Two early mitre 10 plays both at evens:

Auckland -9.5 vs BOP (can get -8.5 at playabets)
&
Waikato -10.5 vs Southland

I don't understand the odd of Otago versus Hawke's Bay. I don't see the Shield changing hands three weeks in a row, that would still be historic. Josh Ioane was brilliant against Hawke's Bay, I didn't expect this performance against Taranaki in wet conditions at all, even though the conditions were not as bad as expected. Hawke's Bay wins against Canterbury, maybe that's what justifies this odd, but Canterbury is not good at the start of the season, and I still think that Brad Weber is the maestro of this team. Without it, it is not the same. In Dunedin, with the roof closed, I see a victory for Otago to keep the Shield with their electric back-three and Ioane at ten.

I agree with you son of the punt with Waikato, but I wait for the weather conditions because in Invercargill it rains often but if it is dry, I think that the game of Waikato is going too fast for the Southland and they will come back down to earth after three big performances.

The Thirteen wrote: I don't understand the odd of Otago versus Hawke's Bay. I don't see the Shield changing hands three weeks in a row, that would still be historic. Josh Ioane was brilliant against Hawke's Bay, I didn't expect this performance against Taranaki in wet conditions at all, even though the conditions were not as bad as expected. Hawke's Bay wins against Canterbury, maybe that's what justifies this odd, but Canterbury is not good at the start of the season, and I still think that Brad Weber is the maestro of this team. Without it, it is not the same. In Dunedin, with the roof closed, I see a victory for Otago to keep the Shield with their electric back-three and Ioane at ten.

I agree with you son of the punt with Waikato, but I wait for the weather conditions because in Invercargill it rains often but if it is dry, I think that the game of Waikato is going too fast for the Southland and they will come back down to earth after three big performances.

Agree with you I just worry about the Shield hangover effect with players spending 2-3 days of celebration and taking pictures across the city.

2 early bets for me on the Mitre

Northland +8.5 @ 1.84
Otago -0.5 @ 1.93

First win in the bag.

Rest of my lines here dudes and dudetts:

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Betting-Stig/st...04-october-2020.html

The weather forecast in Invercargill is terrible. Some websites announce 50mm of rain on Sunday, I've never seen it, it looks like a tornado haha

TheBettingStig wrote:
Rest of my lines here dudes and dudetts:

Here's one I genuinely don't understand Stiggie:

Canterbury 2.5 vs Wellington
Stig line: 6
Tip: Canterbury minus 2.5

Canterbury have been rubbish so far, whilst Wellington have been impervious.

How do you, and the bookies, make Canterbury favourites ?

Warriors -2.5 vs Sarries.

Chiefs to beat LI at 15/20

Fill your boots!

Arrived too late but managed to take

Exeter -3.5 @1.90
Exeter x Warriors @ 2.25

Echoing TOS and Bradie:

WW -4.5 v Sarries at 8/10

Sale over 27.5 points at 0.84 at sunnies.

Sale need a win, and BP win would go along way too! Saint have nothing to play for. We see one way traffic at Franklin Gardens!

Took earlier this morning the Sale over 26.5 @ 1.84
Found some Sale to win & to score a try bonus point @ 2.30 on a french bookie

I follow you on Sale over 3.5 tries @1.83

son_of_a_punt wrote: Echoing TOS and Bradie:

WW -4.5 v Sarries at 8/10

Really guys ? A proud outfit like Saracens is gonna lose to the Worcester Warriors ?

I just honestly cannot see it happening. Hoping I'm wrong, but staying out of it.

In French Top 14, I like the combo: Lyon x La Rochelle @ 1.83. Lyon started with two losses, they had a lot of injured players in the first two games but i except some of them will be back this week. Bordeaux have lined up the same team 3 times, I expect changes.

Same analysis on La Rochelle Racing, Racing will put players to rest this weekend.

The Thirteen wrote: In French Top 14, I like the combo: Lyon x La Rochelle @ 1.83. Lyon started with two losses, they had a lot of injured players in the first two games but i except some of them will be back this week. Bordeaux have lined up the same team 3 times, I expect changes.

Same analysis on La Rochelle Racing, Racing will put players to rest this weekend.

Just be careful with Lyon, the game was moved to Monday because of COVID cluster, I did not check yet the positive players that won’t be able to play.

Kirky wrote:

TheBettingStig wrote:
Rest of my lines here dudes and dudetts:

Here's one I genuinely don't understand Stiggie:

Canterbury 2.5 vs Wellington
Stig line: 6
Tip: Canterbury minus 2.5

Canterbury have been rubbish so far, whilst Wellington have been impervious.

How do you, and the bookies, make Canterbury favourites ?

Hi Kirky,

I agree it does look a bit counterintuitive and whether the prediction is correct will remain to be seen. What I can say is the reason for this is that on paper Canterbury is still a better side than Wellington (if you believe the scores rugbypass attribute to the players) and since we have only had one round without the AB's it's difficult to give too high a weighting to the form side of the equation. Then factor in that home ground advantage has been quite big so far this season, and we end up with a call for Canterbury to beat the cap.

It could be completely wrong of course

Thanks Stig - we'll wait with bated breath as they say: I've taken Wellington on the board.

On the subject of Rugbypass (RPI) ratings, I really struggle with them and I don't think they update properly anymore.
I mentioned that they've still got Sonny Bill Williams rated under Mitre 10 players as well as a bunch of others. What's up with that ?

Keep up the brilliant work bud, you're doing good

Exeter over 24.5 pts
WW v Sarries over 42.5 pts

Double @ 22/10

Does it will rain tonight in England ? Cut points looks low

The Thirteen wrote: Does it will rain tonight in England ? Cut points looks low

yes rain about most country, tread carefully.

Sandy Park takes rain well, Exeter great handling team.

Synthetic surface at Worcester, should still keep flowing despite if wet.

That's my take anyway.

I will go with a combo

Bristol / Leicester '' Neither 40 ''
Worcester / Saracens '' Neither 35 ''
@1.73

Exeter vs London Irish

Exeter over 23.5 @ 1.80
Exeter over 3.5 tries @ 2.20

Its supposed to rain, this is Exeter C team but we will never such low cut with Exeter at home, so this is too juicy not to be taken

Have a small double on Chiefs & Warriors to win @ 2.33

Didnt get the early value available, but happy to take the Chiefs cap -6.5 @ 1.80 also

Keep in mind that Bristol needs a BP win today, I am looking at the Under penalty etc and luckily 3.5 tries like the gift from yesterday's Sale match as rightly pointed out in the forum earlier. If Bristol don't get a BP win they are out of semi final race

Hello,

Can someone explain me why do you all take Exeter ? OK Irish is poor but they have nothing to play for.

louis22 wrote: Hello,

Can someone explain me why do you all take Exeter ? OK Irish is poor but they have nothing to play for.

Pride in club. Competitiveness. Hate losing. Need some more reasons ?

Bristol vs Leicester

Bet 1: Total points over 43 @1.80
Bet 2: Bristol Team Total points Over 32.5 @1.82

Kirky wrote:

louis22 wrote: Hello,

Can someone explain me why do you all take Exeter ? OK Irish is poor but they have nothing to play for.

Pride in club. Competitiveness. Hate losing. Need some more reasons ?

And Exeter has such a competive roster that all players are giving it all to earn their minutes. The B Team of Exeter would be top 8 in England

Absolutely kak performance from Exeter. I am never betting on a team with nothing to play for ever again!

So far for me I am going on the following bets:

- Northland +6.5 - Crowd is back and Northland is relatively confident, Taranaki's lineup is not that impressive and their backline is a mess I believe Northland can win that one.

- Connacht ML @2 - Can't get why Glasgow was favorite here, they have lost a lot of players and didn't have a single friendly game under the belt since they stopped 4 weeks ago, Nakarawa is not allowed to play and this will be their first away match since lockdown. Heavy rain in Connacht and even is they have the 2 red cards suspended they should keep it physical and get a home win here.

- Otage ML @1.70 - Can't see the shield moving again even if I don't like betting a team after a Shield win, Indoor conditions should suit to Otago more than Hawkes Bay.

Keeping an eye on Scarlets - Munster lineups and also Ospreys as they should be stronger than last year. Good luck everyone

FYI - La Rochelle Racing is cancelled as Racing has a COVID cluster (almost a dozen of players apparently). I guess they have celebrated a bit too much their win over Saracens!

Just seen the Wellington lineup - Numia, O'Reilly & Fidow back in the front row, replacing the kids who started last week.
Bench is a bit light, but the starting XV is strongest available.
Canterbury will be desperate at home, but they haven't impressed me much.

Loving the Wellies +3 @ 1.91

SA Gold 1-12 win @ 43/20 with Sunbet

Match-day squad looks stronger, although i don't expect too big a win margin.

I'm aligned with you South but took

Gold on the board @ 2.12
Gold +2.5 @ 1.85

I have Toulon handicap in sight. +17.5. Let me explain.

From the information I gathered: they had a complicated preparation against Exeter, they weren't able to do a lot of training sessions. They may be weaker physically. Rory Arnold got injured, they have problems in the 2nd row because Tekori (36) cannot play every game. Their recruit from Wasps will not arrive until the end of the Premiership. Huget, Kolbe and Guitoune came out injured against Exeter. Maybe at rest against Toulon. Mentally, we do not really know what state they will be.

Toulon is doing well at the moment. They folded the game in the 60th minute against Leicester, they killed them in all areas of the game.

Important precision: rain announced all day Sunday in Toulouse, with a lot of wind.

I think handicap is a bit high. I wait for the information on the Toulon side.

For tomorrow’s game

Pau + 7.5
Benetton + 11.5

Bay of Plenty vs Auckland

Bet 1: Auckland -4.5 @1.89
Bet 2: Total tries Over 6.5 @1.68
Bet 3: Auckland Over 28.5 points @1.87
Bet 4: BoP Over 21.5 points @1.88

Quill wrote: Bay of Plenty vs Auckland

Bet 1: Auckland -4.5 @1.89
Bet 2: Total tries Over 6.5 @1.68
Bet 3: Auckland Over 28.5 points @1.87
Bet 4: BoP Over 21.5 points @1.88

Hey Quill
May I ask which bookie you are using cause you have decent lines in both rugby and tennis recently - cheers

Hi Bradie,

I use two bookies, bet365 and an Australian one, sportsbet.com.au.
For these bets I used as follows:

Bet 1: Auckland -4.5 @1.89 bet365
Bet 2: Total tries Over 6.5 @1.68 bet365
Bet 3: Auckland Over 28.5 points @1.87 bet365
Bet 4: BoP Over 21.5 points @1.88 sportsbet

I don't know if bet365 has different lines depending on the country they're in.

A little bit or Friday morning research on my part:

Taking Manawatu +11.5 at 0.77

In the last 5 meetings between these two sides:

Manwatu have won 2/5
The other 3 games have been settled by a margin of 5 points or less.
Manawatu have covered the spread in 4/5 of those games.
Counties have only covered 2 of their last 12 matches at home.

Just to add to that, Counties have lost their last 11 games in a row and last 12 at home.