Super Rugby Unlocked, Mitre 10, Pro 14, Bledisloe + other rugby 5-11 Oct

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3 years 7 months ago - 3 years 7 months ago #1 by ballaholic
Edit from BG:
Thanks Ballaholic as you forecast we will make this into the rugby thread for the week. A crazy amount of rugby this weekend and on a personal note hoping to continue momentum and can't wait for the local comp

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Original Post

Guessing this will get moved to the weekly rugby thread - but just a quick note that NZ TAB are out with Mitre 10 Cup odds:

Manawatu v Cantabs -19.5
Naki v Auckland -10.5
North Harbour v Hawkes bay +3.5
Welly v Otago +15.5
Waikato v Counties +13.5
Tasman v BOP +15.5
Northland v Southland +7.5

Early bets for me so far North Harbour -3.5 and Auckland -10.5
Last edit: 3 years 7 months ago by Brent Graham. Reason: heading
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3 years 7 months ago #2 by ThoughtsOnSports
No massive standouts for me when having a glance at the opening lines. Will have to put the thinking cap on.

I'm warming up to:

Taranaki +10.5
Northland -7.5
Tasman -15.5

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports

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3 years 7 months ago #3 by The Thirteen
I also like Northland against Southland. First real test for Southland as early weather trends say it will be dry in Whangarei, as Southland has only played matches in wet conditions which went well with his style of play. Robinson, Goodhue and Dan Hawkins play extremely good for Northland at the moment, I think the odds are poorly adjusted due to the results of Southland (2W)

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3 years 7 months ago #4 by CLrugby
I agree with the above, none of the lines look completely off to me at the moment.

I will keep it simple Northland + Waikato + Tasman @1.80 for me on money line.

@Chris_Lacharge

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3 years 7 months ago #5 by Quill
Hi Bradie (or anyone else who knows Top14 rugby),

I'm trying to find out news about Lyon vs Bordeaux to decide on a bet.
I found that Bordeaux will make 9 changes from their Challenge Cup match. Also Guido Petti to be in the squad (he was part of Jaguares in the Super Rugby days).

I don't know what the 9 changes mean, are they first team players coming in, or are they replacing first team players?

As for Lyon, they have 8 players returning to the team and 7 players out due to injuries or Covid. Same question here, are the 8 returning players from the first team or not?

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3 years 7 months ago #6 by bradie82
Hey Quill, i ll try to give you a quick summary
Lyon brings back some players that were injured and especially in the backline - the team is quite strong but question mark on the fly half
Bordeaux makes some changes too, team slightly weakened vs Challenge Cup but they have their best scrum half / fly half on the picth.
I would say Lyon is a better team on paper, would reckon they should win by that should be a tight one

Personally going with over 43.5 @ 1.75
Weather is good and with the number of penalties whistled on every game, I can see that over landing

Hope that helps!
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3 years 7 months ago #7 by Quill

bradie82 wrote: Hey Quill, i ll try to give you a quick summary
Lyon brings back some players that were injured and especially in the backline - the team is quite strong but question mark on the fly half
Bordeaux makes some changes too, team slightly weakened vs Challenge Cup but they have their best scrum half / fly half on the picth.
I would say Lyon is a better team on paper, would reckon they should win by that should be a tight one

Personally going with over 43.5 @ 1.75
Weather is good and with the number of penalties whistled on every game, I can see that over landing

Hope that helps!

Thank you.

Following you on that over, plus Lyon team total over 24.5 @1.80, bet365.

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3 years 7 months ago #8 by Kitchen_theBuys
Bradie any opinion on the plus spread 8.5 for Bordeaux?

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3 years 7 months ago #9 by bradie82
Its slightly high I reckon but would not put my son’s piggy bank on it!!
There is a lot of movement at the moment on the game - cap moved from 8.5 to 3.5 and now back to 5.5

I added Lyon on the board @ 1.60 and cap -3.5 @ 1.91 but think the 8.5 could be interesting in a small play (my 3 bets are small)
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3 years 7 months ago #10 by NicPack
Blue Bulls -17.5 vs Griquas at 0.9 odds WSB a no brainer IMO.
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3 years 7 months ago #11 by Brent Graham
Welcome NicPack

Here are the handicaps at WSB - from Sunday I will do my own handicapping on the local games

Sharks -3.5 v Lions
Cheetahs -19.5 v Pumas
Bulls -17.5 v Pumas

Bledisloe

New Zraland -16.5 v Australia

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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3 years 7 months ago #12 by Laraxwell
I wonder why Bet 365 are so slow to field prices on SA rugby? I fear I'll miss that price on the Bulls

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3 years 7 months ago #13 by ThoughtsOnSports
Couple Pro14 plays from me:

Dragons -6.5 vs Zebre

Ulster 11/10 board

Scarlets 1/1 board

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
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3 years 7 months ago #14 by landrews77
Golden bet : Bledislo Cup match

Wallabies +16,5 @ Evens (WSB)

All Blacks have for the past 3 seasons or more struggled at Wellington against the Springboks, Wallabies, Brittish and Irish lions and France.

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3 years 7 months ago #15 by hanrick

landrews77 wrote: Golden bet : Bledislo Cup match

Wallabies +16,5 @ Evens (WSB)

All Blacks have for the past 3 seasons or more struggled at Wellington against the Springboks, Wallabies, Brittish and Irish lions and France.


Reckon we might be in the minority, but I'm also in the Aussie camp. I expect money for the All Blacks so holding off with my bet until later in the week.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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3 years 7 months ago #16 by landrews77
I am also waiting for a bigger price on the handicap like +8,5 and or +6,5 .I am going to fire on the Wallabies for the first match.

Happy punting.

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3 years 7 months ago #17 by Bookie Basher

Laraxwell wrote: I wonder why Bet 365 are so slow to field prices on SA rugby? I fear I'll miss that price on the Bulls


Already moved from -17.5 to -19.5 since posted here.

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3 years 7 months ago #18 by CLrugby

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Couple Pro14 plays from me:

Dragons -6.5 vs Zebre

Ulster 11/10 board

Scarlets 1/1 board


Fully with you on Dragons -6.5 but I am on the Ospreys side against Ulster. They have a very well balanced team this year and the new coaching staff is doing a good job. GL

@Chris_Lacharge

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3 years 7 months ago #19 by son_of_a_punt
Northland -7.5 at 8/10 v southland (supabets)
&
Bulls -18.5 at 9/10 v griquas (supabets)

Twitter: son_of_a_punt | Time to win some beer money
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3 years 6 months ago #20 by ThoughtsOnSports
Not too impressed with Cantabs side:

Taking Manawatu +10.5 HT
Manawatu +21.5

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports

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3 years 6 months ago #21 by Brent Graham
Stig lines for the Mitre 10 Cup and Pro 14 are up #StigLines5-12Oct

Details on tonights Handicap show at 21h00 to follow - it is going to be packed

Word on the street is that Oracle will be doing some previews with the Stig as well as we will put a page up for those

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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3 years 6 months ago #22 by Kirky

Brent Graham wrote: Stig lines for the Mitre 10 Cup and Pro 14 are up #StigLines5-12Oct


Your and my numbers are near-as-dammit identical Stig, specially (all of) the Mitre 10 scores - Got me licking my lips for the action.

Hoping we can take a sjambok to them this week :woohoo: :woohoo:

Bring it on tonight guys - looking for that special overdue acca :) :beer
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3 years 6 months ago #23 by Laraxwell
In Pro 14 -
Dragons have gone out to -12 from -9 this morning
Prices removed (Bet365) for Ospreys match as 2 Ulster players test positive. Further tests today and I guess then they will decide on the fixture.
Sad but looks like we have a stop start season ahead.

*Still no SA prices up on Bet 365 -and this is a firm that covers the Didi 10 in Georgia!
** Why are we calling a 12 team tournament the Pro14?

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3 years 6 months ago #24 by mackem
Bledisloe preview from Brent who sides with AB's 1st half handicap of -8.5 points with Sunbet for 3 of 10 units

goodforthegame.co.za/Int-Rugby/new-zeala...betting-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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3 years 6 months ago #25 by Brent Graham
Tonights THE HANDICAP should be a cracker with so much rugby to talk about

It is live at 21h00 Click Here to watch on You Tube

Order of events:
1. Super Rugby Unlocked - Oracle and Hanrick
2. Mitre 10 Cup - Hanrick
3. Bledisloe Cup - Hanrick, Oracle, Dave
4. Pro 14 and Premiership - Dave


Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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3 years 6 months ago #26 by Brad Breath
Couple of Mitre 10 bets for me:

Northland -7 @ 1.91

North Harbour win @ 1.70

Waikato -13 @ 1.91 (Best bet)

Also smalls on Dragon -9 @ 1.91 in Pro 14
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3 years 6 months ago #27 by CLrugby
Going Big on North Harbour, Hawkes Bay is rotating half of the team with Dixon not even on the Team Sheet. Looks like they are not focusing on that one to target Northland next week. Massive value @1.70

@Chris_Lacharge
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3 years 6 months ago #28 by Brent Graham
Thanks CL - managed to get that up on the show so plenty of punters climbing in no doubt

Here is the Podcast version of the show

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3 years 6 months ago #29 by mackem
Oracle is back with his previews ...

Unlocked and Bledisloe


goodforthegame.co.za/Oracle/oraclepedia-...to-11th-october.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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3 years 6 months ago #30 by bradie82
I m gonna follow the lads on the show tonight, especially on the livechat

Canterbury under 40.5 @ 1.90

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3 years 6 months ago #31 by Quill
Following the bets on this forum, Manawatu +9.5 HT and +20.5 FT, Canterbury Under 39.5

Adding
Manawatu over 17.5 points @1.93, sportsbet.com.au

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3 years 6 months ago #32 by Kirky
Great show last night guys - plenty rubber-stamping of opinions, could be a top weekend for us :woohoo: :woohoo:

With all Gav's waitresses looking for boyfriends, nice to see Couch get some competition with his 'hookies' :) :P

Damm, if I wasn't so old, wrinkly and decrepit, I'd throw my hat into both rings - but don't think my thousand years of experience will get me to the post :blush:

Bring on the rugger now.. Cheers :beer
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3 years 6 months ago #33 by mackem
Sharks v Lions from Brent who is home side -6.5 points for 5 of 10 units

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2020/sh...betting-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame
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3 years 6 months ago #34 by CLrugby

Brent Graham wrote: Thanks CL - managed to get that up on the show so plenty of punters climbing in no doubt

Here is the Podcast version of the show


Now down to 1.36 here so I guess we all have hammered it. Hope it’s not a classic trap but on paper it looks solid and NH lineup is as per the plan.

I have taken as well some Waikato -11.5 (manage to scrap that on alternative B365 H), in general bottom teams start fading away badly after 4-5 rounds and Molos will go for a BP here

@Chris_Lacharge
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3 years 6 months ago #35 by mackem
Cheetahs v Pumas from Brent who goes 3 of 10 units CHE -21.5

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2020/ch...betting-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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3 years 6 months ago #36 by mackem
Bulls v Griquas from Brent who goes 5 of 10 units Bulls -22.5 points 9/10 Sportingbet

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2020/bu...betting-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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3 years 6 months ago #37 by bradie82
Dragons vs Zebre

Forecast seems alright in Newport and with Zebre missing few players, I can see Dragons targeting a try bonus point tonight

Dragons over 28.5 @ 1.80
Dragons over 3.5 tries @ 1.90

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3 years 6 months ago #38 by southpaw
Crawled out from under my rock last night after a simply disastrous 2 punts last week on Bok game and Leicester. Took one of my bookies accounts down to R0. One of those weekends - didn't get involved in many games but the 2 i did, called badly wrong.

Anyway glad to have watched the show on replay and seen Bradies post on Canterbury points, joined on the unders and glad to get off to a good start, albeit tentative stake. Thanks Bradie for the pick.

Onto tonight - Sharks over 25.5 pts - is tempting me - any Durbs locals think the rain might come with the Southerly?

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3 years 6 months ago #39 by Laraxwell
Sharks v Lions finally up on Bet365
Points line appears low at 44.5
Any local views on this, Weather etc?

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3 years 6 months ago #40 by Laraxwell
So I am new here but have lurked for a few years.
Really enjoy what you have built and the varied output/contributions.
My preferred bet is a Rugby Union Accu on Alternative Handicap - often a painful bet, but I enjoy the ride.
Eg- Iast week, I was 12/12 but woke up to see that Tasman had burned me on the final leg.
A decent Sunday morning coffee later, and all was well with the World again.

Accu this week:

Dragons -5.5 AH
Exeter ML
Sharks ML
New Zealand HT/FT
North Harbour ML
Wellington ML
Waikato ML
Northland ML
Tasman -6.5 AH
Arizona Cardinals ML NFL
Rabbitohs ML NRL

Approx 15/1 on Bet 365

Best of Luck all

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3 years 6 months ago #41 by Chickendinner
Hi guys.
Maybe I’m swimming upstream, but I am in the Lions boat tonight. +8,5 available. So I’m taking some of that.

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3 years 6 months ago #42 by mackem
Couch's Super Rugby Unlocked preview and plays

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...und-1-best-bets.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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3 years 6 months ago #43 by CLrugby
Managed to take some Edinburgh H+8.5 at the line up release as Munster is starting a lot of young players due to the Covid cases from this week, even if Edinburgh is not in great shape their team is stronger than last week against Ospreys and Munster did not manage to train the past 3 days. Even H6.5 should be a decent value.

Still on my Ospreys ML which was my early pick of the week and the lineups are not changing my mind especially with Madigan starting for Ulster. Dragons H-6.5 as another early pick.

Glasgow ML with small unit bet.

The rest is combo with the early Northland x Tasman x Waikato (And I also added Waikato H-11.5).

I also fancy Bath to hold the H+ against Exeter but will likely watch that one with a cold beer

GL everyone

@Chris_Lacharge
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3 years 6 months ago #44 by southpaw
Took the overs - Sharks over 24.5 @ 8/10.

Here's hoping this is not a misread.
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3 years 6 months ago #45 by TheBettingStig
Stig Lines updated with Super Rugby Unlocked, Top 14, Premierships Semis bit.ly/2FaSH7c

Twitter @BettingStig
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3 years 6 months ago #46 by Kitchen_theBuys
Putting a small play on the Sharks to win 1-12 @1.6 sunbet ,with the weather in play I think this is gonna be a tight contested low scoring affair.
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3 years 6 months ago #47 by Kitchen_theBuys
Putting a small play on the Sharks to win 1-12 @1.6 sunbet ,with the weather in play I think this is gonna be a tight contested low scoring affair.
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3 years 6 months ago #48 by Kirky
It's been my experience over the past few years punting, that the most consistently incorrect of outcomes, is 'The Sure Thing'.

I now give 'the sure thing' a triple examination - and it's rewarded me for the trouble :)

Not because I'm smart, just sick and tired of being dumb :unsure:

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #49 by Kirky
Although I've a packet of loot on NZ -17.5, I'm hoping the Ozzies beat them by 20. :sick: :( :pinch: C'mon you Ozzie Bastids :woohoo: :woohoo:
Whatever, I'll read about it tomorrow - had rugby in chunks for now.

Reality is, good honest British rugby will revive my fortunes again this weekend - Pro12 and Premiership.
Thinking I may stop placing bets on Mitre 5 rugby. Give NZ a wide berth from now on - they're a joke.
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Kirky.

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3 years 6 months ago #50 by ThoughtsOnSports
Against the grain here:

Aussies +18.5 at 17/20

I'm a huge Dave Rennie fan and reckon the Wallabies keep it close.

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports

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