Springboks v B&I Lions 3rd test, Bledisloe Cup, Currie Cup, NPC Rugby 6-8 Aug

Will try add my two cents on NPC:

Counties -2.5

Big boost for Steelers pack to have Kepu in the ranks.

Hawke's Bay -1.5

Standout pick of the round for me. No Barretts for Taranaki and the Magpies have a solid pack.

Wellington -14.5

Long season ahead for Northland - they will have a huge reliance on Big Red.

Southland +16.5

Tricky fixture to call as Otago have a great squad.

Bay of Plenty +6.5

This is a cracking punt as the Steamers look the business. Wouldn't be surprised if they upset the Mako in round 1.

Waikato -2.5

Enough quality for the mooloos to put away North Harbour.

Auckland -3.5

Favourites at home in round 1? I'll grab that minus, thank you.

Seen any reporting an availability of ABs in round 1 ToS?

Unlikely, but wondering if a few who don’t make matchday 23 for bledisloe could be released to provinces...

ballaholic wrote: Seen any reporting an availability of ABs in round 1 ToS?

Unlikely, but wondering if a few who don’t make matchday 23 for bledisloe could be released to provinces...

www.allblacks.com/news/several-all-black...nings-warehouse-npc/

Cheers Bookie Basher

Have climbed into Wellington -14.5, they will be very strong side this week with Amua and TJ Perenara in (a key leader)

Also took some Counties -3.5 with Sotutu released to play

Sticking my head above the perapet here:
Those of you on the Oracle’s group will be familiar with my dreadful punting track record during the time since covid struck. Before this, and before Stig's algorithm for that matter, when I too used RPI’s rating system, I did ‘fairly well’.

I operated a simple research based and logic driven team rating system, upon which I made my choices in the NZ leagues and Super rugby, but I abandoned it. I’ve revived it now and have no idea whether it will succeed or not, but will now put my handicap choices onto our forum chat, publicly, and let’s see how it runs. So for the Bunnings NPC here are my picks.

Manawatu +4.5 vs Counties Manukau / -4.5 (80% certainty)
Taranaki +1.5 vs Hawkes Bay / -1.5 (70%)
Wellington -17.5 vs Northland / -17.5 (60%)
Otago -16.5 vs Southland / -16.5 (80%)
BOP +5.5 vs Tasman / Tasman W or 1-12 (70%)
North Harbour +2.5 vs Waikato / -2.5 (70%)
Auckland -3.5 vs Canterbury / -3.5 (80%)

So, that’s what I’ve got to say. Is it rubbish ? Time will tell, but there’s nowhere for me to hide, so.
Strongly suggest you take it with a pinch-of-salt, as I’m a notorious bullshitter.
Happy punting guys - bokke bokke

Confident strike on Lions +5.5

Griquas notoriously bad as favourites

Manawatu v Counties - over 48.5 @ 10/11

Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.

southpaw wrote: Manawatu v Counties - over 48.5 @ 10/11

Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.

Sorry South, no chance. Ref is blowing a penalty a minute, and blowing against the attacking teams. Firing in to the unders. This is kak.

Counties players walking after 34 mins, in attack. Walking. Wow.

South you’re back! 23-9 at HT. Not expecting too many more points from Counties here.

Chiefie wrote:

southpaw wrote: Manawatu v Counties - over 48.5 @ 10/11

Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.

Sorry South, no chance. Ref is blowing a penalty a minute, and blowing against the attacking teams. Firing in to the unders. This is kak.

Counties players walking after 34 mins, in attack. Walking. Wow.

South you’re back! 23-9 at HT. Not expecting too many more points from Counties here.

Good jinxing earlier, Chiefie!

southpaw wrote: Manawatu v Counties - over 48.5 @ 10/11

Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.

Easy peazy - Nicely done South! Followed you here.

Matador wrote:

southpaw wrote: Manawatu v Counties - over 48.5 @ 10/11

Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.

Easy peazy - Nicely done South! Followed you here.

Shot Matador. Nervy start but the 3's taken kept the scoreboard ticking over.

Think overs the way to go this first round of NPC where conditions ok.

The conditioning of the Counties team looked very poor, they looked buggered.

Quill wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

southpaw wrote: Manawatu v Counties - over 48.5 @ 10/11

Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.

Sorry South, no chance. Ref is blowing a penalty a minute, and blowing against the attacking teams. Firing in to the unders. This is kak.

Counties players walking after 34 mins, in attack. Walking. Wow.

South you’re back! 23-9 at HT. Not expecting too many more points from Counties here.

Good jinxing earlier, Chiefie!

Nice one south! Jinx works

shot Chiefie. Let these games play out, anything under 50 pts always a chance.

Now have just been caught napping, UK bookies had Griquas/Lions game @ 4:45pm SA time start, went to get a bet on the overs, already 21-7 to Lions. Thats a bit upsetting!

Overs just sneaks in...

#GRIvLIO

Zambusta wrote: Overs just sneaks in...

#GRIvLIO

It was a nail biter

Couple long priced exotics for tomorrow -

SA Lions -
Last try Marx @ 16/1
MOM Reinach @ 21/1

NZ V aus -
1st try Reece @ 13/2
Last try Jordie Barrett @ 12/1

May be a little relaxing with no FAF so my long odds are something along the line of South's but just a different take

First Try Reinach @ 15/1
Over 1.5 Try's Reinach @ 25/1

NZ over 36.5 points @ 5/6

anyone have a stream for the early NPC games?
the one I use does not show any of the 4am games

kompos wrote: anyone have a stream for the early NPC games?
the one I use does not show any of the 4am games

Try this

freestreams-live1.com/rugby-live-stream/

Springboks v B&I Lions

I took this at bet365

Bet: Total successful Drop Goals - Over 0.5 @4.33

My other bets are:

Bet 1: Under 42.0 points @1.83
Bet 2: Under 3.5 tries @1.80
Bet 3: Either team to win by 1-7 @1.70

Bledisloe Cup

Bet 1: Australia +24.0 @1.82
Bet 2: Australia Over 13.5 points @1.83

Bledisloe #1:

I couldn’t believe how bad Australia were in their 3 test vs France. It’s hard to back them here in any fashion imo.
History in Auckland scares me a little so I won’t go for points, especially when I don’t really think Aus can contribute.
I’ll have a little go at NZ -11.5 HT.

GL

Laokai wrote: Bledisloe #1:

I couldn’t believe how bad Australia were in their 3 test vs France. It’s hard to back them here in any fashion imo.
History in Auckland scares me a little so I won’t go for points, especially when I don’t really think Aus can contribute.
I’ll have a little go at NZ -11.5 HT.

GL

This bledisloe cup game is horrific. Unders will arrive easily…. Whatever it is

Chiefie wrote:

Laokai wrote: Bledisloe #1:

I couldn’t believe how bad Australia were in their 3 test vs France. It’s hard to back them here in any fashion imo.
History in Auckland scares me a little so I won’t go for points, especially when I don’t really think Aus can contribute.
I’ll have a little go at NZ -11.5 HT.

GL

This bledisloe cup game is horrific. Unders will arrive easily…. Whatever it is

I hope the Aussies get murdered in this second half. Lolesios kicking is disgraceful

Chiefie wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Laokai wrote: Bledisloe #1:

I couldn’t believe how bad Australia were in their 3 test vs France. It’s hard to back them here in any fashion imo.
History in Auckland scares me a little so I won’t go for points, especially when I don’t really think Aus can contribute.
I’ll have a little go at NZ -11.5 HT.

GL

This bledisloe cup game is horrific. Unders will arrive easily…. Whatever it is

I hope the Aussies get murdered in this second half. Lolesios kicking is disgraceful

Aus were fighting against the strong wind in the first half.

Bookie Basher wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Laokai wrote: Bledisloe #1:

I couldn’t believe how bad Australia were in their 3 test vs France. It’s hard to back them here in any fashion imo.
History in Auckland scares me a little so I won’t go for points, especially when I don’t really think Aus can contribute.
I’ll have a little go at NZ -11.5 HT.

GL

This bledisloe cup game is horrific. Unders will arrive easily…. Whatever it is

I hope the Aussies get murdered in this second half. Lolesios kicking is disgraceful

Aus were fighting against the strong wind in the first half.

Just what you need when you chasing the game. Matthew Toomua.

How many points did the Wallabies leave on the park!?
It would have been an entirely different outcome.

Quill wrote: How many points did the Wallabies leave on the park!?
It would have been an entirely different outcome.

Such poor kicking from the Snapchat kid.

Fair play to Australia though, not many teams match New Zealand points wise in the 2nd half. Kiwis tend to have this knack of running away with in the the 2nd half.

Overs line lands in match as well as Australia points. Ironically New Zealand fell short team points wise.

under 58.5 at 0.73 in WP - Cheetahs

Bookie Basher wrote: Fair play to Australia though, not many teams match New Zealand points wise in the 2nd half. Kiwis tend to have this knack of running away with in the the 2nd half.

All Black teams of previous years that wasn't coached by Ian Foster...

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: under 58.5 at 0.73 in WP - Cheetahs

13-21 after 30mins. Oh boy… defence optional it appears.

16-28 at HT. aggggg - let that one go.
23-31 at 52min.
30-39 at 65min.
Bokke/Lions - Unders play at HT, and FT

hanrick wrote:

Bookie Basher wrote: Fair play to Australia though, not many teams match New Zealand points wise in the 2nd half. Kiwis tend to have this knack of running away with in the the 2nd half.

All Black teams of previous years that wasn't coached by Ian Foster...

True

Quill wrote: Springboks v B&I Lions

I took this at bet365

Bet: Total successful Drop Goals - Over 0.5 @4.33

My other bets are:

Bet 1: Under 42.0 points @1.83
Bet 2: Under 3.5 tries @1.80
Bet 3: Either team to win by 1-7 @1.70

So far Pollard scored 12+ points in each match.
Dan Biggar got subbed in the second half in both matches and didn't reach 12 points last time, he stopped at 9.

Handre Pollard to score 12 or more points @1.67 is lower than the previous two matches, so I'm adding the following to my above bets:

Dan Biggar & Handre Pollard to score 9 or more points each @1.83

Quill wrote:

Quill wrote: Springboks v B&I Lions

I took this at bet365

Bet: Total successful Drop Goals - Over 0.5 @4.33

My other bets are:

Bet 1: Under 42.0 points @1.83
Bet 2: Under 3.5 tries @1.80
Bet 3: Either team to win by 1-7 @1.70

So far Pollard scored 12+ points in each match.
Dan Biggar got subbed in the second half in both matches and didn't reach 12 points last time, he stopped at 9.

Handre Pollard to score 12 or more points @1.67 is lower than the previous two matches, so I'm adding the following to my above bets:

Dan Biggar & Handre Pollard to score 9 or more points each @1.83

Great market that, if you don't mind me asking, where do you find that market?

Bookie Basher wrote:

Quill wrote:

Quill wrote: Springboks v B&I Lions

I took this at bet365

Bet: Total successful Drop Goals - Over 0.5 @4.33

My other bets are:

Bet 1: Under 42.0 points @1.83
Bet 2: Under 3.5 tries @1.80
Bet 3: Either team to win by 1-7 @1.70

So far Pollard scored 12+ points in each match.
Dan Biggar got subbed in the second half in both matches and didn't reach 12 points last time, he stopped at 9.

Handre Pollard to score 12 or more points @1.67 is lower than the previous two matches, so I'm adding the following to my above bets:

Dan Biggar & Handre Pollard to score 9 or more points each @1.83

Great market that, if you don't mind me asking, where do you find that market?

Sportsbet.com.au, Australia

Throwing in
Any Draw @ 8/1
to go with the Reinach jnr punt

Main bet Lions +3.5 @ 1.85

Lions 1-12 @ 3.30

Adams MOM @ 34

SA over 21.5 @ 10/11
Last try Marx @ 16/1
MOM Reinach @ 21/1