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- Springboks v B&I Lions 3rd test, Bledisloe Cup, Currie Cup, NPC Rugby 6-8 Aug
Springboks v B&I Lions 3rd test, Bledisloe Cup, Currie Cup, NPC Rugby 6-8 Aug
- Brent Graham
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July was still a good month though and will be looking to put the final weekend out of mind with some winners this weekend.
We have the 3rd and deciding test between the Boks and Lions, the Bledisloe Cup between the All Blacks and Australia and 3 Currie Cup games
Boks v Lions 3rd test and Bledisloe - current handicaps
South Africa -3.5 v BIL +3.5
New Zealand -20.5 v Australia
Currie Cup - my projected handicaps
Griquas -4.5 v Lions
Bulls -9.5 v Sharks
WP -3.5 v Cheetahs
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Counties -2.5
Big boost for Steelers pack to have Kepu in the ranks.
Hawke's Bay -1.5
Standout pick of the round for me. No Barretts for Taranaki and the Magpies have a solid pack.
Wellington -14.5
Long season ahead for Northland - they will have a huge reliance on Big Red.
Southland +16.5
Tricky fixture to call as Otago have a great squad.
Bay of Plenty +6.5
This is a cracking punt as the Steamers look the business. Wouldn't be surprised if they upset the Mako in round 1.
Waikato -2.5
Enough quality for the mooloos to put away North Harbour.
Auckland -3.5
Favourites at home in round 1? I'll grab that minus, thank you.
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- ballaholic
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Unlikely, but wondering if a few who don’t make matchday 23 for bledisloe could be released to provinces...
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- Bookie Basher
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www.allblacks.com/news/several-all-black...nings-warehouse-npc/ballaholic wrote: Seen any reporting an availability of ABs in round 1 ToS?
Unlikely, but wondering if a few who don’t make matchday 23 for bledisloe could be released to provinces...
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- ballaholic
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Have climbed into Wellington -14.5, they will be very strong side this week with Amua and TJ Perenara in (a key leader)
Also took some Counties -3.5 with Sotutu released to play
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- Brent Graham
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Griquas -4.5 v Lions (-3.5)
Bulls -9.5 v Sharks (-7.5) - I had it at a Bulls home game for some reason, would likely have gone +6.5 Sharks
WP -3.5 v Cheetahs (-3.5)
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- mackem
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- Kirky
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Those of you on the Oracle’s group will be familiar with my dreadful punting track record during the time since covid struck. Before this, and before Stig's algorithm for that matter, when I too used RPI’s rating system, I did ‘fairly well’.
I operated a simple research based and logic driven team rating system, upon which I made my choices in the NZ leagues and Super rugby, but I abandoned it. I’ve revived it now and have no idea whether it will succeed or not, but will now put my handicap choices onto our forum chat, publicly, and let’s see how it runs. So for the Bunnings NPC here are my picks.
Manawatu +4.5 vs Counties Manukau / -4.5 (80% certainty)
Taranaki +1.5 vs Hawkes Bay / -1.5 (70%)
Wellington -17.5 vs Northland / -17.5 (60%)
Otago -16.5 vs Southland / -16.5 (80%)
BOP +5.5 vs Tasman / Tasman W or 1-12 (70%)
North Harbour +2.5 vs Waikato / -2.5 (70%)
Auckland -3.5 vs Canterbury / -3.5 (80%)
So, that’s what I’ve got to say. Is it rubbish ? Time will tell, but there’s nowhere for me to hide, so.
Strongly suggest you take it with a pinch-of-salt, as I’m a notorious bullshitter.
Happy punting guys - bokke bokke
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Griquas notoriously bad as favourites
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- Brent Graham
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- Brent Graham
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Overs will get the newsletter nod if it lasts
New Zealand v Australia Betting Preview
Aussie overs
Springboks v B&I Lions Betting Preview
Either team by 7 or less - might have a strike on a red card or a drop goal if I can get those markets
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- southpaw
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Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.
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- Chiefie
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southpaw wrote: Manawatu v Counties - over 48.5 @ 10/11
Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.
Sorry South, no chance. Ref is blowing a penalty a minute, and blowing against the attacking teams. Firing in to the unders. This is kak.
Counties players walking after 34 mins, in attack. Walking. Wow.
South you’re back! 23-9 at HT. Not expecting too many more points from Counties here.
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- mackem
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- Quill
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Chiefie wrote:
southpaw wrote: Manawatu v Counties - over 48.5 @ 10/11
Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.
Sorry South, no chance. Ref is blowing a penalty a minute, and blowing against the attacking teams. Firing in to the unders. This is kak.
Counties players walking after 34 mins, in attack. Walking. Wow.
South you’re back! 23-9 at HT. Not expecting too many more points from Counties here.
Good jinxing earlier, Chiefie!
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- Matador
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southpaw wrote: Manawatu v Counties - over 48.5 @ 10/11
Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.
Easy peazy - Nicely done South! Followed you here.
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- southpaw
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Matador wrote:
southpaw wrote: Manawatu v Counties - over 48.5 @ 10/11
Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.
Easy peazy - Nicely done South! Followed you here.
Shot Matador. Nervy start but the 3's taken kept the scoreboard ticking over.
Think overs the way to go this first round of NPC where conditions ok.
The conditioning of the Counties team looked very poor, they looked buggered.
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- Chiefie
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Quill wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
southpaw wrote: Manawatu v Counties - over 48.5 @ 10/11
Always like points in these early rounds, I see it’s 36-0 in ladies game at same ground after 30min so going to assume conditions okay.
Sorry South, no chance. Ref is blowing a penalty a minute, and blowing against the attacking teams. Firing in to the unders. This is kak.
Counties players walking after 34 mins, in attack. Walking. Wow.
South you’re back! 23-9 at HT. Not expecting too many more points from Counties here.
Good jinxing earlier, Chiefie!
Nice one south! Jinx works
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- southpaw
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Now have just been caught napping, UK bookies had Griquas/Lions game @ 4:45pm SA time start, went to get a bet on the overs, already 21-7 to Lions. Thats a bit upsetting!
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- Zambusta
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#GRIvLIO
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- Quill
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Zambusta wrote: Overs just sneaks in...
#GRIvLIO
It was a nail biter
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- southpaw
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SA Lions -
Last try Marx @ 16/1
MOM Reinach @ 21/1
NZ V aus -
1st try Reece @ 13/2
Last try Jordie Barrett @ 12/1
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- Brent Graham
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southpaw wrote: shot Chiefie. Let these games play out, anything under 50 pts always a chance.
Now have just been caught napping, UK bookies had Griquas/Lions game @ 4:45pm SA time start, went to get a bet on the overs, already 21-7 to Lions. Thats a bit upsetting!
Pleased I saw this as thought I had gone made - planned day around 1645 and would have got more involved on overs
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- The Vann
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First Try Reinach @ 15/1
Over 1.5 Try's Reinach @ 25/1
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- southpaw
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- kompos
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the one I use does not show any of the 4am games
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- Quill
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Try thiskompos wrote: anyone have a stream for the early NPC games?
the one I use does not show any of the 4am games
freestreams-live1.com/rugby-live-stream/
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- Quill
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I took this at bet365
Bet: Total successful Drop Goals - Over 0.5 @4.33
My other bets are:
Bet 1: Under 42.0 points @1.83
Bet 2: Under 3.5 tries @1.80
Bet 3: Either team to win by 1-7 @1.70
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- Quill
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Bet 1: Australia +24.0 @1.82
Bet 2: Australia Over 13.5 points @1.83
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- Laokai
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I couldn’t believe how bad Australia were in their 3 test vs France. It’s hard to back them here in any fashion imo.
History in Auckland scares me a little so I won’t go for points, especially when I don’t really think Aus can contribute.
I’ll have a little go at NZ -11.5 HT.
GL
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- Chiefie
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Laokai wrote: Bledisloe #1:
I couldn’t believe how bad Australia were in their 3 test vs France. It’s hard to back them here in any fashion imo.
History in Auckland scares me a little so I won’t go for points, especially when I don’t really think Aus can contribute.
I’ll have a little go at NZ -11.5 HT.
GL
This bledisloe cup game is horrific. Unders will arrive easily…. Whatever it is
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote:
Laokai wrote: Bledisloe #1:
I couldn’t believe how bad Australia were in their 3 test vs France. It’s hard to back them here in any fashion imo.
History in Auckland scares me a little so I won’t go for points, especially when I don’t really think Aus can contribute.
I’ll have a little go at NZ -11.5 HT.
GL
This bledisloe cup game is horrific. Unders will arrive easily…. Whatever it is
I hope the Aussies get murdered in this second half. Lolesios kicking is disgraceful
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- Bookie Basher
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Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Laokai wrote: Bledisloe #1:
I couldn’t believe how bad Australia were in their 3 test vs France. It’s hard to back them here in any fashion imo.
History in Auckland scares me a little so I won’t go for points, especially when I don’t really think Aus can contribute.
I’ll have a little go at NZ -11.5 HT.
GL
This bledisloe cup game is horrific. Unders will arrive easily…. Whatever it is
I hope the Aussies get murdered in this second half. Lolesios kicking is disgraceful
Aus were fighting against the strong wind in the first half.
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- Brent Graham
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- Chiefie
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Bookie Basher wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Laokai wrote: Bledisloe #1:
I couldn’t believe how bad Australia were in their 3 test vs France. It’s hard to back them here in any fashion imo.
History in Auckland scares me a little so I won’t go for points, especially when I don’t really think Aus can contribute.
I’ll have a little go at NZ -11.5 HT.
GL
This bledisloe cup game is horrific. Unders will arrive easily…. Whatever it is
I hope the Aussies get murdered in this second half. Lolesios kicking is disgraceful
Aus were fighting against the strong wind in the first half.
Just what you need when you chasing the game. Matthew Toomua.
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- Quill
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It would have been an entirely different outcome.
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- Chiefie
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Quill wrote: How many points did the Wallabies leave on the park!?
It would have been an entirely different outcome.
Such poor kicking from the Snapchat kid.
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- hanrick
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Bookie Basher wrote: Fair play to Australia though, not many teams match New Zealand points wise in the 2nd half. Kiwis tend to have this knack of running away with in the the 2nd half.
All Black teams of previous years that wasn't coached by Ian Foster...
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- Chiefie
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ThoughtsOnSports wrote: under 58.5 at 0.73 in WP - Cheetahs
13-21 after 30mins. Oh boy… defence optional it appears.
16-28 at HT. aggggg - let that one go.
23-31 at 52min.
30-39 at 65min.
Bokke/Lions - Unders play at HT, and FT
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- Bookie Basher
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hanrick wrote:
Bookie Basher wrote: Fair play to Australia though, not many teams match New Zealand points wise in the 2nd half. Kiwis tend to have this knack of running away with in the the 2nd half.
All Black teams of previous years that wasn't coached by Ian Foster...
True
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- Quill
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Quill wrote: Springboks v B&I Lions
I took this at bet365
Bet: Total successful Drop Goals - Over 0.5 @4.33
My other bets are:
Bet 1: Under 42.0 points @1.83
Bet 2: Under 3.5 tries @1.80
Bet 3: Either team to win by 1-7 @1.70
So far Pollard scored 12+ points in each match.
Dan Biggar got subbed in the second half in both matches and didn't reach 12 points last time, he stopped at 9.
Handre Pollard to score 12 or more points @1.67 is lower than the previous two matches, so I'm adding the following to my above bets:
Dan Biggar & Handre Pollard to score 9 or more points each @1.83
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- Bookie Basher
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Quill wrote:
Quill wrote: Springboks v B&I Lions
I took this at bet365
Bet: Total successful Drop Goals - Over 0.5 @4.33
My other bets are:
Bet 1: Under 42.0 points @1.83
Bet 2: Under 3.5 tries @1.80
Bet 3: Either team to win by 1-7 @1.70
So far Pollard scored 12+ points in each match.
Dan Biggar got subbed in the second half in both matches and didn't reach 12 points last time, he stopped at 9.
Handre Pollard to score 12 or more points @1.67 is lower than the previous two matches, so I'm adding the following to my above bets:
Dan Biggar & Handre Pollard to score 9 or more points each @1.83
Great market that, if you don't mind me asking, where do you find that market?
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- Quill
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Bookie Basher wrote:
Quill wrote:
Quill wrote: Springboks v B&I Lions
I took this at bet365
Bet: Total successful Drop Goals - Over 0.5 @4.33
My other bets are:
Bet 1: Under 42.0 points @1.83
Bet 2: Under 3.5 tries @1.80
Bet 3: Either team to win by 1-7 @1.70
So far Pollard scored 12+ points in each match.
Dan Biggar got subbed in the second half in both matches and didn't reach 12 points last time, he stopped at 9.
Handre Pollard to score 12 or more points @1.67 is lower than the previous two matches, so I'm adding the following to my above bets:
Dan Biggar & Handre Pollard to score 9 or more points each @1.83
Great market that, if you don't mind me asking, where do you find that market?
Sportsbet.com.au, Australia
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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Any Draw @ 8/1
to go with the Reinach jnr punt
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- Brad Breath
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Lions 1-12 @ 3.30
Adams MOM @ 34
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- southpaw
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Last try Marx @ 16/1
MOM Reinach @ 21/1
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