Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
- The Vann
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On the jerseys. The leaders red and the mountains polka are the same as other tours. Points jersey is similar but the points on each stage is the same ( 25 down to 1 for top 15 ) and the interim sprint only carries 4/3/2. The white combi jersey is the rider best placed in the other three jerseys.
I never punt the combi jersey as its about the same as the race winner.
GC will probably be decided on the two massive climbing days - stages 17 + 18 - and the final day ITT over 34km.
LA VUELTA OUT RIGHTS
A few notes
Last week Bardet won the big climbing stage in Burgos and there are a few stages with climbs late and finishing on a downhill being Bardet territory. Aru finished second to Landa over the five days of Burgos. Dombrowski robbed me of a 60/1 shot in the Giro when he beat de Marchi from the break in a medium mountain stage - he owes me. Yates has improved his time trialing by leaps and bounds since joining Ineos and I think his chances here are around the 11/2 mark so taking on odds.
Win
A Yates @ 12/1
Top 10
Aru @ 4/1
To win a stage Yes
Bardet @ 7/2
Dombrowski @ 8/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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mackem wrote: Thanks Vann, I've only had chance to have a look at the start list now, have you seen a price for Shachmann to win a stage?
Thanks. Best list at Sunbet. Also strangely have the best out right odds - unusual.
Schachmann is at 13/2. Was one of the last three on my list together with Carapaz @ 3/1 and Cort @ 7/2
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- Brent Graham
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Going to approach this Vuelta a bit differently. Times are tough and my Sunbet account is on 0 (betting been ok for me but 2 years and no increase has seen the pressure ramp up)
I am only going to allow myself R1000 for the Vuelta which will put me under some serious pressure to hit something early
Will track my balance on this thread
Early long term fancy Movistar team prize at 3/1 but with a limited starting balance no long terms yet
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- Brent Graham
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Stage 1
A tricky looking route and I am not convinced Roglic will go 100% through corners and being so short it may be that even a slight drop off is enough to see someone else in
R40 places on Van Baarle 20, Aranburu 22 Fraile 40
R10 win on each at 80, 100 and 150
Spend R150
Balance R850
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- The Vann
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Also on a long losing run with Sunbet but they keep throwing up good odds like the Wurtz Schmidt bet today so have to take it.
VUELTA STAGE 1
Win
Cort @ 12/1
e/w
Izagirre Ion @ 66/1
1-3
Wurtz Schmidt @ 50/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Today is Florian Vermeersch @150/1 Young Belgian who goes off last for Lotto Soudal
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- Couch Critic
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- Brent Graham
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Balance R1770
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- Brent Graham
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Molano top 3 at 23/20 R115/100
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- The Vann
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The nice thing about Grand Tours is you get a few looks at the riders over similar stages. I see today as a reccie for larger punts and match bets on stages 4 + 5. Was half stage stake yesterday and will go similar today as I have another out right in mind. Undecided on sprinters so running with Brent
e/w
Molano @ 5/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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- Brent Graham
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Big climb at the end of today - headwind might make it tough to attack but have a feeling Lopez is going to go for it and is strong
Balance R1670
R20 win Lopez at 25/1
R50 top 3 Lopez at 6/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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The final climb today was climbed in the Vuelta a Burgos on 5 Aug and Bardet was first over the top ahead of Landa and Bernal. He unfortunately crashed on the descent but looks like he has fully recovered going by the first stage ITT. Also heard the wind will be head-on so could have a small bunch sprint.
Vuelta Stage 3
Win
Bernal @ 14/1
e/w
Bardet @ 20/1
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- The Vann
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Madrazo @ 125/1
Holmes @ 150/1
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- The Vann
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Today's finish is 400-500metres at 4-6% depending what you read. I'm going to presume sprinters still win as they should be in front. Giving my stage 2 pick a second chance.
Vuelta Stage 4
e/w
Molano @ 11/1
and a match bet double
Jakobsen/Phillipsen into
Molano/Demare
@ 5/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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- Brent Graham
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Been quiet this week. Took some in running action (small plays) on likes of Roglic and Yates at big prices on stage 3 but the break never came back
Small nibble Magnus Cort yesterday top 3 at 13/2 and balance sitting on 1725
Work hectic so will get more involved from Friday
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- The Vann
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Smalls on today's win and a little double
Vuelta Stage 5
Win
Molano @ 8/1
Match bet Double
Matthews/Aberasturi - Lobato/Venturini @ 7/4
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Ion Izagirre @250/1
Joe Dombroswki @300/1
Daniel Navarro @500/1
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- Brent Graham
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Had R10 on Storrer 66/1 and Vanhoucke 100/1 last night and see both have come in
Throwing in another R20 on Herrada at 33/1
Must say setting myself a tight budget and betting small hasn't detracted from my enjoyment of the race
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- The Vann
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Obviously I cannot pick a stage winner so going with two from the boards and two very long shots. Saving 20% of days stake for in-play as the right break probably stays away.
Vuelta Stage 6
Win
Herrada Jesus @ 28/1
Vanhoucke @ 66/1
e/w
Cabedo @ 200/1
Caicedo @ 500/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Valverde @ 11/2
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- Brent Graham
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R25 on each of the following today
Mader 33/1
Carr 40/1
Bizkarra 80/1
Polanc 100/1
added R50 Mader young rider 20/1 and R25 Polka at 40/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Joe Dombroswki @80/1
Alex Aranburu @80/1
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- The Vann
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Vuelta Stage 7
Win
Kron @ 20/1
Vansevenant @ 50/1
e/w
Cabedo @ 100/1
Cepeda @ 125/1
and a match bet double
Cepeda/Meintjies - Landa/Vlasov @ 26/10
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- The Vann
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The Vann wrote: A little late today as my Sunbet account suffered the same fate as Brents.
Vuelta Stage 7
Win
Kron @ 20/1
Vansevenant @ 50/1
e/w
Cabedo @ 100/1
Cepeda @ 125/1
and a match bet double
Cepeda/Meintjies - Landa/Vlasov @ 26/10
Like the Polanc pick and wondered whether this guy has recovered enough from the earlier crash - so a couple of beers
Win
Vine @ 50/1
Polanc @ 80/1
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- The Vann
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Thought Bernal was either over doing the facials or is not having a great time so today's stage moola heading to a little out right
Bernal Top 3 - No @ 17/10
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- gogabee
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Good value bet Sepp Kuss Top 3 for stage 9 @10/1
Can get 50/1 to win the stage.
Great climber should go well here
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Vuelta Stage 9
Win
Padun @ 16/1
Vansevenant @ 50/1
e/w
Meintjies @ 125/1
Cabedo @ 200/1
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- Brent Graham
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I think the break sticks tomorrow and it should be a really good stage to watch
R50 on Balioli at 12/1
R30 on Aranburi at 20/1
R10 on Verona at 66/1
R10 on Ellisonde at 200/1
Someone talk me out of depositing and placing a big bet on Bahrain for the team comp at 6/10
They have so much depth in the team and Movi are already 2 riders light and won't have too many to get into breakaways with Mas and Lopez in contention
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Mark Padun @50/1
Carlos Verona @80/1
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- The Vann
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Vuelta Stage 10
Bagioli @ 14/1
Fraile @ 28/1
Padun @ 50/1
Madrazo @ 350/1
Caicedo @ 350/1
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- Couch Critic
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Pick you Astana player today I reckon. Aranburu, Fraile, LLS and the bros...
I'll take LLS at 40/1 & Gorka at 80.
Also the "Champ" at 100/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Storer @ 17/1 and
Martin @ 18/1
to give me three in the break
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- kcmarinopirlo
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break has 7 minutes
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I ended up adding Van Barle late and took Eiking in play - needless to say I once again came up just short with 3rd, 4th and fifth on the day! In fairness though Storer was a cut above today.
What a day in all, it really is only the Vuelta where you can see such a big swing thanks to a strong break and just nowhere near enough control from a dominant team to keep them in check. If G Martin can find his best climbing legs he could stay well in the mix until the very end. Unbelievable to see Primoz feel the need to try and do so much work on his own (his team really is nowhere near what he is used to) and then almost cock up the entire race - but respect to him for showing some serious balls though he is starting to fall off his bike a bit more often than the very best should be.
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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Not sure a break stays today as Astana/Bike Exc/Quick-Step will all be interested so going with Bagioli who could win from either. I also think his match bet odds are way too long based on what I saw on stage 6.
Vuelta Stage 11
Win
Bagioli @ 25/1
Match Bet
Bagioli/Kron @ 22/10
Also fancy the Grossschartner match bet so a beer double
Grossschartner/Vlasov into above @ 23/4
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- The Vann
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Vanhoucke @ 125/1 (3rd in Giro on similar stage)
Simmons @ 125/1 (Won in Wallonie on similar stage)
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- The Vann
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Points Winner
Roglic @ 6/1
and the usual suspects
Vuelta Stage 12
Win
Bagioli @ 18/1
van Baarle @ 28/1
Simmons @ 66/1
e/w
Cepeda @ 300/1
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- Brent Graham
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R50 on Baglioli and Kron both at 16/1
Balance 1195
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Vuelta Stage 13
Taking the beer Win
Dianese @ 4/1
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- Brent Graham
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R25 on each of these
Kron 66/1
Vansevenant 80/1
Baglioli 200/1
Majka 25/1
Should be a great stage
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