Cycling : Vuelta a Espana

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2 years 9 months ago #1 by The Vann
Cycling : Vuelta a Espana was created by The Vann
Last Grand Tour of the season starts 14/08. Probably my favorite as we have a fair sprinkling of shorter more exciting stages and the climbs can be tricky. Its also August which is open season for transfers/new contracts in cycling so we get some desperate riders out there.
On the jerseys. The leaders red and the mountains polka are the same as other tours. Points jersey is similar but the points on each stage is the same ( 25 down to 1 for top 15 ) and the interim sprint only carries 4/3/2. The white combi jersey is the rider best placed in the other three jerseys.
I never punt the combi jersey as its about the same as the race winner.
GC will probably be decided on the two massive climbing days - stages 17 + 18 - and the final day ITT over 34km.


LA VUELTA OUT RIGHTS
A few notes
Last week Bardet won the big climbing stage in Burgos and there are a few stages with climbs late and finishing on a downhill being Bardet territory. Aru finished second to Landa over the five days of Burgos. Dombrowski robbed me of a 60/1 shot in the Giro when he beat de Marchi from the break in a medium mountain stage - he owes me. Yates has improved his time trialing by leaps and bounds since joining Ineos and I think his chances here are around the 11/2 mark so taking on odds.

Win
A Yates @ 12/1
Top 10
Aru @ 4/1
To win a stage Yes
Bardet @ 7/2
Dombrowski @ 8/1
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2 years 9 months ago #2 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Thanks Vann, I've only had chance to have a look at the start list now, have you seen a price for Shachmann to win a stage?

twitter: @goodforthegame

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2 years 9 months ago #3 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana

mackem wrote: Thanks Vann, I've only had chance to have a look at the start list now, have you seen a price for Shachmann to win a stage?


Thanks. Best list at Sunbet. Also strangely have the best out right odds - unusual.

Schachmann is at 13/2. Was one of the last three on my list together with Carapaz @ 3/1 and Cort @ 7/2

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2 years 9 months ago #4 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Shot for starting the thread Vann

Going to approach this Vuelta a bit differently. Times are tough and my Sunbet account is on 0 (betting been ok for me but 2 years and no increase has seen the pressure ramp up)

I am only going to allow myself R1000 for the Vuelta which will put me under some serious pressure to hit something early

Will track my balance on this thread

Early long term fancy Movistar team prize at 3/1 but with a limited starting balance no long terms yet

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2 years 9 months ago #5 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Opening Balance R1000

Stage 1
A tricky looking route and I am not convinced Roglic will go 100% through corners and being so short it may be that even a slight drop off is enough to see someone else in

R40 places on Van Baarle 20, Aranburu 22 Fraile 40
R10 win on each at 80, 100 and 150

Spend R150

Balance R850

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2 years 9 months ago #6 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Agree on the route today Brent. Too technical so I do not expect any GC riders to risk losing the Vuelta today. Also - at 7.1km anyone who is prepared to risk injury could get close. Someone dumb and young like Simmons maybe.
Also on a long losing run with Sunbet but they keep throwing up good odds like the Wurtz Schmidt bet today so have to take it.

VUELTA STAGE 1
Win
Cort @ 12/1
e/w
Izagirre Ion @ 66/1
1-3
Wurtz Schmidt @ 50/1

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2 years 9 months ago #7 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Similar to Brent looking for more inplay bets for this; giving my main antepost this year was for a Team Ineos rider to podium in all 3 tours happy to pick the odd big priced outsider.


Today is Florian Vermeersch @150/1 Young Belgian who goes off last for Lotto Soudal

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2 years 9 months ago #8 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Nice start with Aranburu BG!

Twitter: @HDiemont

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2 years 9 months ago #9 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Thanks Couch, thought he was going to win there for a while

Balance R1770

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2 years 9 months ago #10 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Just 1 bet for me today and not risking too much of the bankroll

Molano top 3 at 23/20 R115/100

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2 years 9 months ago #11 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Great call Brent. Annoyed I did not follow on Aranburu.
The nice thing about Grand Tours is you get a few looks at the riders over similar stages. I see today as a reccie for larger punts and match bets on stages 4 + 5. Was half stage stake yesterday and will go similar today as I have another out right in mind. Undecided on sprinters so running with Brent
e/w
Molano @ 5/1

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2 years 9 months ago #12 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana



Hate to be an aftertimer; but was on nightshift and was surprised Philipsen wasnt favourite tbh.

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2 years 9 months ago #13 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Certainly a close sprint to start the Vuelta

Big climb at the end of today - headwind might make it tough to attack but have a feeling Lopez is going to go for it and is strong

Balance R1670

R20 win Lopez at 25/1
R50 top 3 Lopez at 6/1

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2 years 9 months ago #14 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Should be a good watch on Monday with the final climb really tough. Will follow BG with a nibble at Lopez and also Bardet 18/1 based on Vanns pre - race thinking.

twitter: @goodforthegame

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2 years 9 months ago #15 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Spot of inexperience costing us the money yesterday. Molano starts the sprint a little early, which is not unusual, but the bugger-up comes when he sprints in the centre giving riders both sides to pass.
The final climb today was climbed in the Vuelta a Burgos on 5 Aug and Bardet was first over the top ahead of Landa and Bernal. He unfortunately crashed on the descent but looks like he has fully recovered going by the first stage ITT. Also heard the wind will be head-on so could have a small bunch sprint.

Vuelta Stage 3
Win
Bernal @ 14/1
e/w
Bardet @ 20/1

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2 years 9 months ago #16 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
This is the Vuelta so anything is possible. A beer each
Madrazo @ 125/1
Holmes @ 150/1

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2 years 9 months ago #17 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Had high hopes for my Dombrowski out right yesterday but just missed - we soldier on.
Today's finish is 400-500metres at 4-6% depending what you read. I'm going to presume sprinters still win as they should be in front. Giving my stage 2 pick a second chance.

Vuelta Stage 4
e/w
Molano @ 11/1
and a match bet double
Jakobsen/Phillipsen into
Molano/Demare
@ 5/1

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2 years 9 months ago #18 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Getting Involved in some Outrights tonight; I'm worried Bernal will crack at some point so have taken GINO MADER for the Young Rider Classification @25/1, Also like Roglic for the PTS jersey ew @16/1, and Doubled both at a whopping 441/1

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2 years 9 months ago #19 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Hi guys,

Been quiet this week. Took some in running action (small plays) on likes of Roglic and Yates at big prices on stage 3 but the break never came back

Small nibble Magnus Cort yesterday top 3 at 13/2 and balance sitting on 1725

Work hectic so will get more involved from Friday

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2 years 9 months ago #20 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Not shaping on the stages so joining kc on the Mader pick. Looked very much like UAE went with Trentin in the sprint yesterday. Either that or the lead out was badly buggered-up.
Smalls on today's win and a little double

Vuelta Stage 5
Win
Molano @ 8/1
Match bet Double
Matthews/Aberasturi - Lobato/Venturini @ 7/4

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2 years 8 months ago - 2 years 8 months ago #21 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Feel the break wins today so taken a few flyers;

Ion Izagirre @250/1
Joe Dombroswki @300/1
Daniel Navarro @500/1

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Last edit: 2 years 8 months ago by kcmarinopirlo.

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2 years 8 months ago #22 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Balance 1725

Had R10 on Storrer 66/1 and Vanhoucke 100/1 last night and see both have come in

Throwing in another R20 on Herrada at 33/1

Must say setting myself a tight budget and betting small hasn't detracted from my enjoyment of the race

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2 years 8 months ago #23 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Scary narrow farm road 6km from finish today. Could see a few GC hopes dashed. Does not look like a well thought out route.
Obviously I cannot pick a stage winner so going with two from the boards and two very long shots. Saving 20% of days stake for in-play as the right break probably stays away.

Vuelta Stage 6
Win
Herrada Jesus @ 28/1
Vanhoucke @ 66/1
e/w
Cabedo @ 200/1
Caicedo @ 500/1

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2 years 8 months ago #24 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Will also hope for the break on Thursday and chancing Andreas Kron, 33/1. Didn't know much about the guy but looks a talent with wins in Catalunya and Swiss this year and 16 mins back on GC so no concern to the race leaders.

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2 years 8 months ago #25 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
22km left
Valverde @ 11/2

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2 years 8 months ago - 2 years 8 months ago #26 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Had a few small in-running plays and balance down to R1640

R25 on each of the following today

Mader 33/1
Carr 40/1
Bizkarra 80/1
Polanc 100/1

added R50 Mader young rider 20/1 and R25 Polka at 40/1

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Last edit: 2 years 8 months ago by Brent Graham.

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2 years 8 months ago #27 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Friday sticking with Kron at 25/1, think he tried for the break early yesterday so maybe shelved his effort for today when it took so long to get established. Miguel Lopez the back up at 33/1 in case GC battle it out

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2 years 8 months ago #28 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Should be a good stage; im sticking with;

Joe Dombroswki @80/1
Alex Aranburu @80/1

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2 years 8 months ago #29 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
A little late today as my Sunbet account suffered the same fate as Brents.

Vuelta Stage 7
Win
Kron @ 20/1
Vansevenant @ 50/1
e/w
Cabedo @ 100/1
Cepeda @ 125/1
and a match bet double
Cepeda/Meintjies - Landa/Vlasov @ 26/10

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2 years 8 months ago #30 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana

The Vann wrote: A little late today as my Sunbet account suffered the same fate as Brents.

Vuelta Stage 7
Win
Kron @ 20/1
Vansevenant @ 50/1
e/w
Cabedo @ 100/1
Cepeda @ 125/1
and a match bet double
Cepeda/Meintjies - Landa/Vlasov @ 26/10


Like the Polanc pick and wondered whether this guy has recovered enough from the earlier crash - so a couple of beers
Win
Vine @ 50/1
Polanc @ 80/1

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2 years 8 months ago #31 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Had three for a win in the break and Bardet from my out right and came up empty again.
Thought Bernal was either over doing the facials or is not having a great time so today's stage moola heading to a little out right

Bernal Top 3 - No @ 17/10

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2 years 8 months ago #32 by gogabee
Replied by gogabee on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Stage 9
Good value bet Sepp Kuss Top 3 for stage 9 @10/1
Can get 50/1 to win the stage.
Great climber should go well here
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2 years 8 months ago #33 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Thought we may get the whole stage today but looks like only the last 50min or so. Start with a long downhill so not sure little climbers can make the break but will take a few darts - can always take one of the GC guys in play as their odds stay around the same.

Vuelta Stage 9
Win
Padun @ 16/1
Vansevenant @ 50/1
e/w
Meintjies @ 125/1
Cabedo @ 200/1

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2 years 8 months ago #34 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Not alot of involvement from me just some small in running plays which has seen the balance come down to 1445

I think the break sticks tomorrow and it should be a really good stage to watch

R50 on Balioli at 12/1
R30 on Aranburi at 20/1
R10 on Verona at 66/1
R10 on Ellisonde at 200/1

Someone talk me out of depositing and placing a big bet on Bahrain for the team comp at 6/10

They have so much depth in the team and Movi are already 2 riders light and won't have too many to get into breakaways with Mas and Lopez in contention

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2 years 8 months ago #35 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Not going to mess with my Sunbet balance but broke strategy a bit and took Bahrain for the team comp at 4/6 at WSB - to win 1k which is my limit there

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2 years 8 months ago #36 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
I'm hoping Padun gets off the Landa leash today; also been impressed with Verona, and he may be the Movistar dangerman for the Team Comp Brent!

Mark Padun @50/1
Carlos Verona @80/1

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2 years 8 months ago #37 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
A big fat Zilch from the first weeks stages. Only bet with any chance is the day I skipped the stage and took the lay bet on Bernal. Have tried Vansevenant several times with no joy so switching to another Quick-Step rider.
Vuelta Stage 10
Bagioli @ 14/1
Fraile @ 28/1
Padun @ 50/1
Madrazo @ 350/1
Caicedo @ 350/1

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2 years 8 months ago #38 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
A stage where going down could prove more crucial than going up.

Pick you Astana player today I reckon. Aranburu, Fraile, LLS and the bros...
I'll take LLS at 40/1 & Gorka at 80.
Also the "Champ" at 100/1

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2 years 8 months ago #39 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Lacking imagination here but I couldn't get away from the favourite Matthews on Tuesday

twitter: @goodforthegame

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2 years 8 months ago #40 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Beering
Storer @ 17/1 and
Martin @ 18/1
to give me three in the break

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2 years 8 months ago #41 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Adding Bagioli in play @7/1

break has 7 minutes

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2 years 8 months ago #42 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Brent with some very lively runners in that break but lovely in-play work Vann!

I ended up adding Van Barle late and took Eiking in play - needless to say I once again came up just short with 3rd, 4th and fifth on the day! In fairness though Storer was a cut above today.

What a day in all, it really is only the Vuelta where you can see such a big swing thanks to a strong break and just nowhere near enough control from a dominant team to keep them in check. If G Martin can find his best climbing legs he could stay well in the mix until the very end. Unbelievable to see Primoz feel the need to try and do so much work on his own (his team really is nowhere near what he is used to) and then almost cock up the entire race - but respect to him for showing some serious balls though he is starting to fall off his bike a bit more often than the very best should be.

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2 years 8 months ago #43 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
No joy despite all the runners in the break and my 6/10 team classification bet goes 5/2 as Ineos stick 2 in the break - strange as it sounds it is this unpredictability that I love about cycling and especially the team comp.

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2 years 8 months ago #44 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
After eventually ditching Vansevenant he finishes second. One place better and I would of flour bombed the Quick-Step bus.
Not sure a break stays today as Astana/Bike Exc/Quick-Step will all be interested so going with Bagioli who could win from either. I also think his match bet odds are way too long based on what I saw on stage 6.

Vuelta Stage 11
Win
Bagioli @ 25/1
Match Bet
Bagioli/Kron @ 22/10
Also fancy the Grossschartner match bet so a beer double
Grossschartner/Vlasov into above @ 23/4

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2 years 8 months ago #45 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
I can't get a run for my money, try again today, this time with Pidcock, Ineos having a bit of a nightmare so far and badly need a stage win

twitter: @goodforthegame

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2 years 8 months ago #46 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
When you finish your morning chores and have nothing to do until lunch why not run your eyes down the stage odds list. A beer apiece

Vanhoucke @ 125/1 (3rd in Giro on similar stage)
Simmons @ 125/1 (Won in Wallonie on similar stage)

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2 years 8 months ago #47 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
With Philipsen's withdrawal there is only Jakobsen ahead of Roglic in the points competition. Not sure if Jakobsen has the legs to make it through the next weeks heat and those two brutal stages 17 + 18. Joining kc on the out right - quite surprised still on offer at these odds

Points Winner
Roglic @ 6/1

and the usual suspects
Vuelta Stage 12
Win
Bagioli @ 18/1
van Baarle @ 28/1
Simmons @ 66/1
e/w
Cepeda @ 300/1

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2 years 8 months ago #48 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Balance continues to fall after some in running attempts

R50 on Baglioli and Kron both at 16/1

Balance 1195

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2 years 8 months ago #49 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Finish with the circle around 600m out means rider with lead out train wins. So either lump kitchen sink on Jakobsen or beer for the watch.

Vuelta Stage 13
Taking the beer Win
Dianese @ 4/1

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2 years 8 months ago #50 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Vuelta a Espana
Balance (after bets below) down to R1095

R25 on each of these

Kron 66/1
Vansevenant 80/1
Baglioli 200/1
Majka 25/1

Should be a great stage

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