NFL Week 1

Excited to have NFL back but will try and be a bit cautious with the first week. Made some notes on stats from 2020 season too which I'll attach (apologies, it's a bit crude, didn't think I'd post it but thought it might be helpful.) - not going to live or die by those stats but I think it's a pretty good baseline. Stats from PFF.

Buccaneers vs Cowboys:

Buccaneers at home with a stacked roster against the Cowboys who at least have Dak Prescott back. The problem for them however is on defense and it's really hard to not see a blowout happening here. Cowboys also had one of the worst secondaries, and one of the worst o-lines last year and their top guard, Zack Martin, looks likely to sit out due to covid but that could change. I think Dak might be a bit hesitant due to last year's injury and with the Buccs pressure, tied 4th most sacks 2020, I could see a few INT's happening.

Buccs -7 @ 1.78
Brady Passing Touchdowns - Over 2.5 @ 2.55
Anytime TD - Ronald Jones II @ 2.38 (Cowboys had 2nd worst rush defense last year...one of the RB's is going to score and Jones is listed as starter)

Giants v Broncos

I like Broncos as a dark horse team this year. I think both QB's are solid and they have an excellent secondary, even stronger after the draft. I'm not going on the handicap for this one for two reasons: 1) Broncos have a weak rush defense and Barkley is back for the Giants. I want to see how both do first. 2) Giants defense was sneakily pretty decent last year, tied 5th for least passing TD's allowed and tied 10th for least rushing TD's.

Broncos have Von Miller back. If their defense can stop the run somewhat I believe it should be pretty low scoring.

Under 42 @ 1.91

Saints v Packers

What should have been a home game for Saints in the dome is now in an open stadium in Jacksonville due to the hurricane. I'm big on Packers this season. Last season Rodgers played angry, now he has something to prove. Rodgers had some more say in the roster and a deadly offense is even more dangerous now. Defense let them down last year but a new defensive coordinator is brought in and when you look at the stats they weren't even that bad, they just broke down at crucial times.

Saints have a new QB which I quite like but I think they might struggle a bit at first. Not a lot of threats apart from the running game with Kamara and if Packers can keep him in check I can see Packers outscoring them.

Packers -5.5 @ 2.00

Rams v Bears

Rams at home, in a packed dome with the top defense in the league (and it's not even close). Very excited for the Rams season, huge hopes for new QB Stafford, underrated receivers, clever playcalling...Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.

Would definitely recommend you guys look up some stats from last year on defense. Rams 1st (overall); 1st against the pass, 3rd against the rush. 2nd most sacks. Bears also have an average o-line (ranked 20th) with Andy Dalton as QB - it feels like Bears are almost offering him up to protect their first round pick Justin Fields (only reason I can think of why they are not starting him). This feels like the most lob-sided game of the weekend, along with Buccs/Cowboys.

Rams -8 @ 2.00
Bears Under 19 @ 1.91 (probably the bet I feel the most comfortable out of week 1)

(Will look for more markets to open up on this game like Anytime TD, etc which I don't have atm)

Thanks MrMeeSeeks

Been a long 6 months but we go again. A small Build a bet to test the waters for the 1st game (02:20am Friday)

Brady Over 2.5 Touchdown passes + Jones anytime touchdown + Jones Over 48.5 Rushing yards

10/1

Early bet for Sunday games

Packers/Saints
Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 Touchdown passes
14/10

Naidoo wrote: Early bet for Sunday games

Packers/Saints
Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 Touchdown passes
14/10

Adding onto this
Chiefs/Browns

Mahomes over 2.5 Touchdown passes
1/1