Tennis w/c 01 Nov - Paris Masters + Other

Djoko and Tsitsipas in one half, Zverev and Medvedev in the other one.
I don't want to go for Djoko, too low the odds anyway, and I don't think Tsitsipas can win this, even if he beats Djoko.

Zverev and Medvedev will potentially meet in the semis, so one of them will make it to the final, and so far they've threatened and even beat Djoko in big matches.

My futures:
Medvedev @5.00
Zverev @6.50

Ivashka vs Ramos

Ivashka won Winston-Salem and then reached the semifinal at Nur-Sultan.
This is not a good surface for Ramos, who hasn't won in the first round here since 2016. On a clay court he would have a chance against Ivashka, but not here. He has a terrible 21-52 (W-L) record on indoor hard courts.

Bet: Under 21.5 games @1.90


McDonald vs Lajovic

McDonald has a high first serve percentage and he doesn't rush his second serve. Last week he didn't commit any double faults in St Petersburg, and he played 4 sets.
In the only previous meeting between these two players, McDonald beat Lajovic on the clay courts of Munich 6-4 6-4, and he had only one double fault there.
Lajovic won only one match in Paris, against Mahut in 2015, and since then he has played four main draw matches in this tournament and lost them all.

Bet 1: McDonald 2-0 @2.15
Bet 2: Under 22.5 games @1.89


Norrie vs Delbonis

Delbonis is on a 9-match losing streak and he's now running into a player who reached the semis in San Diego and won Indian Wells. He hasn't won a single match this year that was on a surface other than clay. He has won only 18 matches on indoor hard courts so far in his career (since 2005).
Norrie has come a long way this year and is in contention for a place in the ATP Finals in Turin.

Bet: Under 20.5 games @1.80


Multiple:
Ivashka + McDonald + Norrie @2.06

Paris

Fognini/McDonald/Norrie @ 26/10

Karatsev vs Korda

Karatsev recently won in Moscow, but right after that he lost in St Petersburg to Millman, who wasn't in any great form.
Korda is enjoying his best season so far in 2021, although he hasn't achieved much in the second part of the year.
However, these two players met twice so far and both times Korda won in straight sets, once on clay last year and once on hard in Miami this year.

Bet 1: Korda @2.55
Bet 2: Korda +3 @1.83

Will catch some tennis between the cricket and the late EPL match.

Mannarino v Basilashvili
You just never know which Basilashvili will show up on the day but if its the one who ran Norrie and Berrettini close and beat Carreno-Busta in the last two weeks he wins here easily.

Murray v Brooksby
The youngsters results have been falling away recently and rumours are he is tiring after his longest season. Should suit Murray

Both to win 2-0 Basilashvili/Murray @ 38/10

The Vann wrote: Will catch some tennis between the cricket and the late EPL match.

Mannarino v Basilashvili
You just never know which Basilashvili will show up on the day but if its the one who ran Norrie and Berrettini close and beat Carreno-Busta in the last two weeks he wins here easily.

Murray v Brooksby
The youngsters results have been falling away recently and rumours are he is tiring after his longest season. Should suit Murray

Both to win 2-0 Basilashvili/Murray @ 38/10

Taking them as plain wins as well, because the odds are above 2.
Basilashvili + Murray @2.35

Auger-Aliassime vs Mager

There is a huge difference between these players, not only in ranking, but talent as well.
Auger Aliassime still got an outside chance of qualifying for the ATP Tour Finals in Turin, and he needs a big result in Paris this week.

He reached the semifinal at US Open and quarter-finals in Viena. Mager is a more modest player and he's coming from qualifications.

The odds for a straight sets win are very low, so I'm going for total games.

Bet 1: Total Match Games - Under 22 @1.92
Bet 2: Total Player Games - Aliassime Under 12.5 @2.18

I should really try and avoid betting on first round matches as you never sure what form a player arrives with even if they played well the previous week - something like this bet where these two played in the final last week.

To win Fritz + Cilic @ 16/10

Harris has just withdrawn from his match against De Minaur and now Popyrin will play instead.

Dimitrov should take care of Gasquet, who is no longer the threat he used to be.

De Minaur + Dimitrov @2.04

Hugo Gaston vs PC Busta

In the previous round here Busta (no. 17) dismissed Paire (no. 47) in two sets, 6-3 6-4.
Gaston (no. 103) is lucky to be in this round. He came through qualifications and he was staring down the barrel of a gun in his first-round contest against Rinderknech, as he was down 4-6 and 2-3 in the second set, as he had just got broken, when he took a medical time out. That completely halted his opponent's momentum and swung the match in his favor.
One year ago these two players met on the same courts and the Spaniard beat Gaston in 2 quick sets, losing only 5 games, 6-3 6-2. The difference has not changed much between them and I expect another comfortable win by Careno Busta.

Bet 1: Busta -4.5 @1.97
Bet 2: Total Games - Busta Under 12.5 @1.90
Bet 3: Total Match Games - Under 21.5 @1.84
Bet 4: Total Games - Gaston Under 9.5 @1.76

Busta 2-0
Aliassime win

Total odds @2.06

Hurkacz and Norrie are chasing a qualifying spot to the ATP Finals in Turin.
Tsitsipas should be too good for Popyrin and I added him to boost the odds.

Hurkacz + Norrie + Tsitsipas @2.35

Took the Hurkacz + Norrie double @ 21/20

Tsitsipas v Popyrin
I have been impressed by Popyrin recently. That straight set loss against Berrettini last week could very easily have gone the other way. Tsiptsipas, on the other hand, looks like he is mentally on holiday already. He has not beaten a top player in a couple of months and has lost to Tiafoe and Basilashvili in recent weeks. The Tsitsipas odds are too short for this match so I'm looking at games.

Match games over 21.5 @ 9/10

Unbelievable this week in tennis. Matches that should end quickly go the full three sets, now Hurkacz was 5-0 up and all of a sudden it's 5-5!

Another player who is in a good position to clinch his ATP Finals spot is Sinner.
I'm taking him in a double with Norrie, as I think he will beat Alcaraz. Sinner has had an incredible year, and recently he won in Sofia and Antwerp, and he reached the semifinals in Vienna last week.

Norrie + Sinner @2.23

Khachanov/Rublev vs Murray/Soares

Murray/Soares are in with a chance to clinch one of the last two spots at the ATP Finals in Turin. They played the final at the US Open and won the title in St Pete last week.

Khachanov/Rublev have been playing together for a while now, but without notable results.

I'll take a double (pun not intended) with Sinner.

Murray/Soares + Sinner @2.29

In play Monfils just lost first set to Mannarino

Win
Monfils @ 24/10

Hurkacz vs Koepfer

The early exit of ATP Finals competitors Auger-Aliassime and Jannik Sinner has taken a bit of pressure off Hubert Hurkacz. He is now up to the eighth position — and the final automatic qualification spot — in the FedEx ATP Race To Turin.

Koepfer eliminated Auger-Aliassime, so it will be no easy task for Hurkacz, but he has been very good this year and here in Paris he has a huge chance to qualify for the ATP Finals for the first time.

Norrie vs Fritz

Norrie is in the fight for a spot at the ATP Finals. He's had an amazing year so far, and after his last win here he said:
"I really want to make the top eight and be playing, competing,” said Norrie. “There’s only two spots for basically the four of us, so I think it adds another element, and I really like that. Even to be in the conversation even this late in the year, means a lot to me and shows that I have made some improvements this year in my game… I want to play and I want to keep pushing and I want to give everything I've got and try and make that event.”
Norrie defeated Opelka in two sets in the previous round. Opelka is of a similar calibre as Fritz. They played in Atlanta 3 months ago and the match was a 3-setter, all tie-breaks.

Bet: Hurkacz + Norrie @1.96

Krawietz/Tecau vs Martin/Mies

Krawietz/Tecau are currently seventh in the ATP Doubles Team Finals Race, and are fighting for one of the last two spots with 3 other doubles teams.

I'm not taking Hurkacz in this combo, just in case Koepfer comes up with another giant killing performance.

Bet: Krawietz/Tecau + Norrie @2.40

Popyrin vs Duckworth

Popyrin replaced Jenson Brooksby as the lucky loser and defeated Alex de Minaur in the first round.
Then in the second round he was gifted a place in the next round by Stefanos Tsitsipas, who retired midway through the first set with an arm injury.

Duckworth has had some very good results here, beating Roberto Bautista Agut and Lorenzo Musetti, and in the past few months in general.
Although Duckworth appears to be the in-form player of these two, facing a well rested Popyrin should make this match a bit longer.

Bet: Over 22.5 games @1.83

Duckworth v Hurkacz
I think the Popyrin walk-about in the previous match was more responsible for Duckworth being here then him playing a great match. Hurkacz should win easy here just depends how much pressure he feels from the win putting him into the finals. I'm thinking he should be OK

Match games under 21.5 @ 23/20

Djokovic v Fritz

This will only be Djoko's second match since that US Open loss and he looked a little at sea against Fucsovics the other night. His stated aim now is to finish the season at No 1 which is virtually a lock. Strangely he has not won a Masters event this season. I think Fritz has a shot here but not taking the match bet as I think if Fritz does win here he could easily make the final

Paris Masters Outright
Win
Fritz @ 22/1

Along the same lines in Duckworth v Hurkacz match.

Bet 1: Match games under 22.5 @1.83
Bet 2: Hurkacz 2-0 @1.95
Bet 3: Duckworth Under 11.5 Total Games @1.84

Gaston vs Medvedev

Horrible week I've had at this tournament.
Trying to look at a different market, not always offered by the bookies.

I think that Hugo Gaston will manage to fire at least one ace. He's got a good enough serve and ace can come out from just about anywhere and anybody. Gaston served at least one ace in every match he's played in Paris, while Medvedev was served at least 2 aces in each of his two matches here so far.

Bet: Player Aces - Gaston Over 0.5 @1.90

And he gets that single Ace. Nice Quill
The tennis in the Djokovic v Fritz match was absolute rubbish with 8 of 17 games being breaks of serve. I reckon Djokovic was there for the taking but Fritz just had a bad day at the office.

Djokovic v Hurkacz
Hoping Hurkacz may play more freely now that he has qualified for the finals. If he gets the same Djokovic as yesterday this match should go the distance

Sets over 2.5 @ 2/1

and even taking a beer today on the double
Hurkacz + Zverev @ 9/1

That opening 5.0 on Medvedev looks safe Quill.

Djokovic v Medvedev
Thought Djokovic looked poor in the whole tournament yet here he is in the final. The last three H2H between these two have been straight sets and I am really tempted by that Medvedev 2-0 at 18/10 but have settled for games instead.

Match games under 22.5 @ 21/20

I think Medvedev will win this and since I already have him as an outright winner, for an interest I made this Bet Builder at bet365:

Player to win a set - Medvedev
Player with most aces - Medvedev (he does fire more aces than Djoko - even when Djoko won 3-0 at the Aus Open, Medvedev outscored him in aces)
First Medvedev Service Game - Medvedev to win (I don't think there will be a break of serve as soon as they start)
First Djokovic Service Game - Djokovic to win

Total odds - 2.20