Tennis: Wimbledon

Gauff should take care of Anisimova, she's been playing very well here.

Halep plays against Frech, who is just inside top 100.
Halep leads 2-0. She won both of those matches in straight sets, in the quarterfinal of 2020 Prague (as part of her title run) and in the first round of the Australian Open this year.

Fritz + Gauff + Halep 2-0 @2.18

Sonego vs Nadal

OK, here's how things are.
Looks like the bookies know what they are doing at this tournament. They've priced Nadal's markets well so far, and for this match tonight they put Nadal at 19.5 games and total match games at 34.5.
This means we'll have another long match, i.e. at least longer sets.

Nadal will require dramatic improvement if he wants to get past Sonego.
Sonego is a much more dangerous opponent than Nadal’s first two opponents, Francisco Cerundolo and Ricardas Berankis, both of whom took a set off him. Two of Sonego’s ATP final appearances have come on grass, including the 2019 Antalya title. He reached the fourth round at Wimbledon last summer and so far at this tournament he has taken out grass-court specialist Denis Kudla in five sets and Hugo Gaston in straights.

Bet 1: Nadal over 19.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Match games over 34.5 @1.83

The Vann wrote: Rushed pick yesterday and it was poor.
Gasquet's body has held up so far and if it's still good today he should snaffle a set off the Dutchman
Gasquet v Van de Zandschulp
Win ans Sets
Van de Zandschulp 3-1 @ 32/10

Nice call here Vann!

Kyrgios + Nadal @2.01

Kyrgios vs Tsitsipas

Kyrgios just beat Tsitsipas in Halle and leads the overall head-to-head series 3-1. Now they are at a Grand Slam, where the Aussie is always more focused and motivated. Grass is his best surface and he withdrew from the doubles competition to focus on the singles.

Kyrgios absolutely annihilated Queen’s Club runner-up Filip Krajinovic on Thursday, which made a real statement.

Tsitsipas is the no. 5 player in the world, with impressively consistent results throughout the 2022 season and with a grass-court title in his pocket (Mallorca just a week ago). Under most circumstances, this would make Tsitsipas a clear favourite in any match, particularly against a player ranked 40th. Not so against Nick Kyrgios at Wimbledon, however.

Kyrgios on grass is one of the most dangerous players in all of men’s tennis. He’s a threat on the lawn even when he’s playing poorly, owing to his monster serve and deadly groundstrokes. And right now he is definitely not playing poorly. He had three semifinal results in a row in 2022 starting with the clay event in Houston, then two more on the grass courts of Stuttgart and Halle.

Kyrgios has already sent Tsitispas packing this season, just a few weeks ago in Halle, so he won’t head into this match lacking in confidence.

Even with Kyrgios’s unpredictability, it is hard to pick against him in the form he’s in.

Tsitsipas is playing very well too, so I think that we'll have a longer match too.

Bet 1: Kyrgios @1.74
Bet 2: Over 41.5 games @1.84

Wow, the match that was supposed to be Nadal's most difficult here so far, he is schooling Sonego!

Not a good card for me today. Have not made a Goffin bet all year and also in the red on Norrie. Like the Sinner match for games but he has had a dodgy knee all year so can't go there. Going with two doubles at half stakes on the early matches and may look at that Rijthoven games line of 12.5 later.

Both to Win
Tiafoe + Norrie @ 23/10
Over 3.5 sets in
Norrie/Paul - Sinner/Alcaraz @ 29/20

Norrie vs Paul

Norrie won the last two encounters against Paul, both on American soil.
He had a super-dominant win over Steve Johnson, 6-4 6-1 6-0. He delivered a bagel in each of his last two matches against Pablo Andujar in the first round and Jaume Munar Clar in the second, but his performance against the American in the third round was by far the best of his campaign.

He dominated Paul in Delray Beach earlier this year, 6-3 6-3, and playing at home and on grass only improves his chances of a clear win.

Bet 1: Norrie -2.0 games @1.90
Bet 2: Norrie -1.5 sets @2.07

Norrie + Alcaraz @2.15

Alcaraz vs Sinner

Alcaraz had played only two grass-court matches in his career prior to this fortnight, so it’s no surprise that he struggled through five sets in his opener against Struff. Since then, however, he has looked like the player who took the ATP Tour by absolute storm from February through May. He beat Tallon Griekspoor in straight sets and then destroyed Oscar Otte 6-3, 6-1, 6-2.

Sinner is in strong form as well, having beaten Stan Wawrinka (four sets), Mikael Ymer (four), and most impressively John Isner in three.
He is quite inexperienced on grass, too, so it’s not like he has any kind of surface advantage.
Alcaraz is the better player right now and his three performances here are clear indicators that he is getting better and better with each match.

Alcaraz may be the favourite in this match, however I don't think he will beat Sinner in straight sets on grass. The difference between them is not that big, as Sinner is an established name too by now.
I think we'll have a longer match with Alcaraz the winner.

Bet 1: Alcaraz win & Over 35.5 games @2.50
Bet 2: Over 38.5 games @1.83

Quill wrote: Norrie vs Paul

Norrie won the last two encounters against Paul, both on American soil.
He had a super-dominant win over Steve Johnson, 6-4 6-1 6-0. He delivered a bagel in each of his last two matches against Pablo Andujar in the first round and Jaume Munar Clar in the second, but his performance against the American in the third round was by far the best of his campaign.

He dominated Paul in Delray Beach earlier this year, 6-3 6-3, and playing at home and on grass only improves his chances of a clear win.

Bet 1: Norrie -2.0 games @1.90
Bet 2: Norrie -1.5 sets @2.07

That -1.5 set h/cap appeals Quill. Joining you there.

Ons Jabeur vs Elise Mertens

With Iga Swiatek out, Jabeur is now the favourite and she deserves it too.
She is up to no. 2 in the world thanks to her 2022 brilliant performance and she is showing no signs of slowing down.

In week one just a single set went to 6-4, two were 6-3, and everything else was a bagel, breadstick, or 6-2. Mertens is a minor step up in competition, but she has been struggling this year.
I think that Jabeur will win in two sets.

Bet: Under 20.5 games @1.78

Courtesy of the Quill's Norrie pick I may be in the money today so spending a case of beer here

Djokovic v van Rijthoven
Djoko has not had his walk about where some unknown takes him to 4-4 in the final set. Could be this evening
van Rijthoven over 11.5 games @ 17/20

Novak Djokovic vs Tim van Rijthoven

Tim Van Rijthoven is in the form of his life at the moment and is 4-0 against top 20 players in career (all in this grass swing). 
Rijthoven lifted his maiden ATP title in 's-Hertogenbosch a few weeks ago, defeating Felix Auger Aliassime and Daniil Medvedev, and he's been riding on that confidence and momentum so far at Wimbledon.

I'm banking on (I like this pun here) a tighter match than the ones Djokovic has had so far, as the Dutchman is one of the most in-form and dangerous players on grass.

Bet 1: Van Rijthoven Over 11.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Van Rijthoven +7.5 @2.04
Bet 3: Over 30.5 Games @1.85

Wow, these two youngsters, Sinner and Alcaraz!

Quill wrote: Wow, these two youngsters, Sinner and Alcaraz!

Brilliant watch

De Minaur + Kyrgios + Fritz + Nadal @2.03

Garin vs De Minaur

Alex de Minaur leads 3-0 (7-0 in sets) and he beat Garin recently in Eastbourne, 6-3 6-3.

Bet: De Minaur -6.5 @1.80

Nakashima vs Kyrgios

This match is seen by many more balanced than at first glance.

I've just seen Kyrgios (on tv) finishing his training session then walking around and he looked in good mood.
He loves it here and he keeps saying it, so Nakashima really has to be at the top of his game or Kyrgios to have one of his brain farts for us not to see a Kyrgios win.

They both serve very well and Kyrgios fires aces with his second serve too.

Bet 1: Total Aces Over 32.5 @1.83
Bet 2: Kyrgios Total Aces Over 21.5 @1.83

Kubler vs Fritz

Kubler came out of nowhere through qualifications and now he is in the 4th round.
However he hasn't really been tested, as Fritz is a steep step up in competition.

Bet: Fritz 3-0 @2.37

Badosa vs Halep

None of these players have lost a set yet. Badosa showed a lot of composure against Kvitova, as apart from the lapse in the very first game, she did not drop another service game and rallied from 3-5 to prevail 7-5 7-6.

Halep has moments of magic, when she is unstoppable, but she is inconsistent and can lose out of the blue.
It should be time for these two players to lose a set.

Bet 1: Over 21.5 games @1.85
Bet 2: Over 2.5 sets @2.50

Van de Zandschulp vs Rafael Nadal

Nadal dropped sets to both Cerundolo and Berankis in mediocre performances, but raised his level considerably to crush Sonego 6-1, 6-2, 6-4.

Van de Zandschulp has been on the rise since last summer, reaching a career-high of no. 25 in the world.

The 36-year-old Spaniard has won each of the first two Grand Slams in 2022 and is No. 1 in the race to Turin by almost 2,000 points. He has improved his season record to 33-3 and extended his slam winning streak to 17 with victories over Francisco Cerundolo, Ricardas Berankis, and Lorenzo Sonego.

Van de Zandschulp does have a fair amount of firepower, but not enough to make him that prototypical player who would consistently give Nadal trouble. And given the way Nadal looked in the previous round, all signs point to this being one-way traffic.

Bet 1: Nadal 3-0 @2.10

Djokovic vs Sinner

We all know how good Alcaraz is.
We all saw how Sinner beat him. How hard it was for Alcaraz to win a set.
Both of them had similar experience on grass before this Wimbledon, that is little, and yet, both of them played so well at this tournament.

OK, so Sinner beat Alcaraz. For those who watched the match, it would not have been a surprise to see Sinner win in straight sets.

Now Sinner plays Djokovic. Sinner is obviously better than van Rijthoven. Van Rijthoven took a set from Djokovic.
I hope Sinner will give Djokovic a run for his money and not collapse like van Rijthoven.

Bet 1: Over 33.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Sinner +6.5 @2.00

Goffin vs Norrie

I like Goffin here so far. He beat strong opponents, Humbert and Tiafoe.
He may lose this match, with Norrie playing at home, the huge crowd support and all that, but I think Goffin is good enough for two sets.

Bet: Goffin to win two sets @1.90

Don't like the look of the Djokovic match so am stupidly going Goffin again.
Goffin v Norrie
Same take as Quill here in that Goffin gives Norrie a good run. Value for me in that scenario is
Norrie over 20.5 games @ evens

And a few beers for the watch
Djokovic v Sinner
First set and Match bet
Sinner/Djokovic @ 9/2

The Vann wrote: ...

And a few beers for the watch
Djokovic v Sinner
First set and Match bet
Sinner/Djokovic @ 9/2

Well done here!
How did it cross your mind to take this bet?

Quill wrote:

The Vann wrote: ...

And a few beers for the watch
Djokovic v Sinner
First set and Match bet
Sinner/Djokovic @ 9/2

Well done here!
How did it cross your mind to take this bet?

Best match of the tournament thus far was Sinner v Alcaraz. If Sinner brought the same game it would take Djokovic a while to work it out. Nice take on the Goffin v Norrie match Quill. Would have to say that this match is producing absolutely rubbish tennis and the next Djokovic bet is going to be either 3-0 or under 18.5 games.

Rybakina vs Tomljanovic 

Rybakina beat Tomljanovic 6-4, 6-0 last spring in Madrid and she will be even tougher on grass. She is second this fortnight in total aces, tied for first in first-serve points winning percentage, and second in fastest serve speed. Rybakina has not lost a single set, not even in the second round against Bianca Andreescu.

Tomljanovic has been on a great run at Wimbledon, but this is her biggest test yet. Rybakina should show her class here.

Garin vs Kyrgios

When Kyrgios came up on court last round, De Minaur was leading Garin two sets to nil. Kyrgios said that he thought he'd play De Minaur tonight.
De Minaur was furious at himself at the way he let that match slip away.
I'm taking Kyrgios to avenge his friend.
Anyway, what is Garin doing here? How did he get here? (note to Garin: this is just a rhetorical question, I don't want you to actually show me. Just go with the flow, the Kyrgios flow).

Bet 1: Rybakina + Kyrgios @1.92
Bet 2: Kyrgios 3-0 @2.50
Bet 3: Kyrgios -5.5 @2.00 (he can cover this handicap in 2 sets when he gets motivated, he just needs a target, someone to focus his anger at)
Bet 4: Garin under 17.5 games @1.91 (even if Garin wins a set, he can still finish under this total in 3 normal sets)

Jabeur vs Maria

Jabeur is on fire, while Maria has played almost nothing but three-setters. The 34-year-old has to be gassed mentally and physically. Plus this is a terrible matchup for her from a stylistic standpoint.
Jabeur dominated all her opponents so far, and when she lost a set, she won the other two with interest, like against Bouzkova in the previous round, 3-6 6-1 6-1.


Rybakina vs Halep

Halep has been crushing her opponents.
Why would Rybakina be the first to take a set off the Romanian this fortnight? She has just played a long three-setter against Ajla Tomljanovic and struggled to close out the match, giving Tomljanovic the chance to come close.

Halep is in great form, great mood and she wants it.

Bet 1: Jabeur -5.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Jabeur under 12.5 games + Halep win @2.10
Bet 3: Jabeur 2-0 + Halep win @1.86
(just in case Jabeur wins a set going to 7-5 or 7-6)

Adding Halep 2-0 @1.83

Jabeur vs Maria

What an ugly, boring match!
Jabeur's brain must have farted, as she plays into Maria's slicing game. This is not how I've seen Jabeur play so far.

Djokovic vs Norrie

I think Djokovic will dominate Norrie as he did in the ATP Finals last November (6-2 6-1).
Norrie got a bit lucky with the draw and some withdrawals or upsets in the early rounds, and he took his chances.

Otherwise I'm asking myself the same question again: what is he doing here?

Kyrgios is the only hope now to snatch this Grand Slam from Djoko's hands.

Bet 1: Djokovic -7.5 @1.83
Bet 2: 3-0 and under 31.5 games @2.45

Thanks Quill - Agree
Took yesterday and forgot to post
Djokovic under 18.5 games @ 15/10

I've seen Djokovic play for too many times to believe a single thing of what he wants to show us now.
Not for a minute do I believe that he is struggling against Norrie.
He is pretending.

Only as recently as his match against Sinner, he came out of nowhere after 2 sets down to crush Sinner.

Years ago I noticed that he pretends to struggle, he tries so hard to get to some balls and he grunts and farts to get those balls, he even pretends he is tired, he is dejected, only to trick his opponents into believing him and drop their guard.

The match against Sinner is the latest proof.
Now here again the same circus, his antics.

How can that crowd believe that Djokovic actually makes those mistakes, hits the ball outside the lines and that Norrie is actually better than him... It's not the first day of the tournament, it's the semifinal, he played 5 matches here already, he is used to it.

It's just a show that he puts on.

When a player hits the net and the ball drops into the opponent's court and wins the point, they raise their hands, right?

The commentators then say that the players apologize.

I don't think that that is an apology. Why indeed would they apologize, and even the commentators say it that the players don't have to apologize for such a point.

But then I want to ask those commentators: why do you call it an apology in the first place?

I don't see it as an apology, but rather an acknowledgement to the other player that yes indeed, I was lucky to get that point. Or that I admit that that shot was not fair to you.
And I raise my hands to admit that. Not to apologize, but to admit that I was lucky and my opponent didn't lose the point fairly, the opponent didn't get the chance for a fair go at it.

I put a couple of beers on Kyrgios to win Wimbledon @4.33

It's his best chance and he can do it. He's had time to rest, he has the skills and the talent.

Later I will look at the other markets to see what else is there.
I'm not sure I'll take Kyrgios on Aces, as Djoko is too good a returner and he may touch a few extra balls.

Kyrgios over 17.5 games @1.83
Total games over 38.5 @1.80

Djokovic v Kyrgios
Have struggled with a bet on this match. Not a fan of betting on matches where there is "History" between players because it can affect the crowd and therefor the match.
My take is Kyrgios looks to finish points early and he now faces the player who makes you play more shots on your serve then any other. Both players are quite capable of breaking the others serve here so I'm thinking the sets may be shorter then expected.

Match Bet and Games
Djokovic and under 41.5 games @ 23/20

I do hold the 33/1 Kyrgios ticket but the 3/10 on Djokovic does not appeal. Should his odds run out to 13/20 - 7/10 in playI will probably cash out.

Quill wrote: Kyrgios over 17.5 games @1.83
Total games over 38.5 @1.80

Well played on the final Quill. My bet misses by one game. Did get 13/20 cover on Djokovic at start of second set so 13/1 return on the Kyrgios ticket.
Maybe we do this again at the US Open. Not my favorite tournament and also a slight struggle with the time zone. Happy punting

The Vann wrote:

Quill wrote: Kyrgios over 17.5 games @1.83
Total games over 38.5 @1.80

Well played on the final Quill. My bet misses by one game. Did get 13/20 cover on Djokovic at start of second set so 13/1 return on the Kyrgios ticket.
Maybe we do this again at the US Open. Not my favorite tournament and also a slight struggle with the time zone. Happy punting

Hard luck on your bet Vann.
I was thinking it could finish 7-5 in the 4th set and we'd both win.

US Open is bad for me too with the time zone.
Let's see.