US Open Tennis

Outrights
From the top half of the draw I think Medvedev has looked a little off recently. Coin toss between Fritz and Tsitspas. In the bottom half not sure Rafa is fully fit. Like Coric but he may lack the stamina for two weeks of five sets. Taking a little nibble though at the odds but going with the Spanish wunderkind.
Win
Alcaraz @ 5/1
Tsitsipas @ 12/1
Coric @ 28/1

A couple from the early matches. Korda can go walkabout in a match sometimes so Bagnis may sneak a set or at least get to a tie breaker. Wolf should give Roberto a decent work out.

Korda over 18.5 games/Bautista-Agut over 19.5 games @ 33/20

Murray's experience and first round record should see him through. Zhang comes in with some good form and Paul there to pop the odds over 2/1

To win
Murray/Zhang/Paul @ 21/10

The Vann wrote: Outrights
From the top half of the draw I think Medvedev has looked a little off recently. Coin toss between Fritz and Tsitspas. In the bottom half not sure Rafa is fully fit. Like Coric but he may lack the stamina for two weeks of five sets. Taking a little nibble though at the odds but going with the Spanish wunderkind.
Win
Alcaraz @ 5/1
Tsitsipas @ 12/1
Coric @ 28/1

I took Nadal @5.00 (yes, I know )
Fritz @21
Berrettini @26

A cheeky multi to start things off -

Millman
Berrettini
De Minaur

2/1

Mondo86 wrote: A cheeky multi to start things off -

Millman
Berrettini
De Minaur

2/1

Dellien withdrew this morning and I am not sure whether a lucky loser has been allocated the Berretini match. May need to check that.

Kyrgios vs Kokkinakis

These two are very good friends.
After the draw Kyrgios said "let's give them a good show brother".

I don't think this will finish in 3 sets.

Bet: Over 36.5 games @1.83

Quill wrote: Kyrgios vs Kokkinakis

These two are very good friends.
After the draw Kyrgios said "let's give them a good show brother".

I don't think this will finish in 3 sets.

Bet: Over 36.5 games @1.83

Adding another bet here:
Match winner and both players to win a set - Kyrgios @2.50

Wow, Tsitsipas is 0-6 and 0-3 after 9 games against Galan Riveros!!

Nakashima vs Kotov
Kotov plays mainly in Challenger and ITF tournaments and I don't think Nakashima will have too many problems in this match.

Verdasco vs Soon Woo Kwon
Verdasco is at the end of his career. Soon Woo Kwon is better than Verdasco right now.

Sousa vs McDonald
Although Sousa won a hard tournament this year (Pune in February), he lost 8 of his 9 matches on hard courts, including the last 5.
Playing in the USA I give McDonald a good chance to win this.

Norrie vs Paire
Baez vs Alcaraz

Norrie and Alcaraz are there to increase the odds.

Bet: Nakashima + Soon Woo Kwon + McDonald + Norrie + Alcaraz @2.48

Poor day yesterday. Amazed that Tsitsipas went down like that and Zhang had seven match points but still managed to lose.

A double and treble first up. Will probably take on a match or two later depending what we get live in SA.

Over 3.5 sets
Nakashima/Kotov - Verdasco/Kwon @ 16/10

All to win
McDonald/Rune/Evans @ 5/4

Djere made the final in Winston Salem a week ago so brings some form in here and Rublev has been known to get a little distracted.

Djere v Rublev
Total games over 31.5 @ 19/20

Hijikata vs Nadal

Hijikata spends almost all of his time at the Futures and Challenger levels and he just got his first main-tour victory via retirement in Los Cabos (he lost to Daniil Medvedev 6-4, 6-3 in the second round). This will be a great experience for Hijikata, but this should be almost entirely one-way traffic.

Total games: Under 26.5 @2.03

Gombos vs Ramos

All their previous three meetings were on clay and went the distance. There is no reason why they shouldn't play out a close match here.

Bet: Over 38.5 games @1.81

Quill wrote: Hijikata vs Nadal

Hijikata spends almost all of his time at the Futures and Challenger levels and he just got his first main-tour victory via retirement in Los Cabos (he lost to Daniil Medvedev 6-4, 6-3 in the second round). This will be a great experience for Hijikata, but this should be almost entirely one-way traffic.

Total games: Under 26.5 @2.03

Some players should just sit quietly in their hole and not stick their heads up.
Why did Hijikata win that first set? The following three sets would have won my bet.



Very poor tournament from a betting perspective so far.

Cristian Garin vs Alex de Minaur

De Minaur is actually seeking a bit of revenge here. They just faced each other in a fourth-round match at Wimbledon, where Garin saved two match points and ended up completing a comeback from two sets down for a 2-6, 5-7, 7-6(3), 6-4, 7-6(6) victory.
After that encounter De Minaur was mad at himself at the way he let the match slip away from him. He was furious.

De Minaur won each of their first three meetings in straight sets, including twice on hard courts–6-3, 7-5, 6-3 in the same round of this same event three years ago and 6-4, 6-2 in Indian Wells. Moreover, De Minaur has remained in strong form since Wimbledon, including a second Atlanta title and a 7-5, 6-2, 6-3 beating of Filip Krajinovic in the first round here.
Garin went back to clay following his success at Wimbledon and suffered first-round losses twice in a row. He did well to beat Jiri Lehecka 3-6, 7-6(3), 7-5, 6-1 in his opener here, but that certainly doesn’t mean he is going to upset De Minaur for a second straight time.

Bet: De Minaur 3-0 @1.95

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alexander Bublik

Busta is in great form, he has just won the Montreal title, where he beat Berrettini, Rune, Sinner, Evans and Hurkacz, all very good hard court players.
Bublik is a tall player and relies heavily on his serve. He loves fast courts, he fires plenty of aces, but he also makes lots of double faults.

I think we'll have a tight match here, same like the three previous matches between them, which have gone the distance.

Bet: Over 36.5 games @1.83

I think Busta will beat Bublik, as I consider Busta to be the more accomplished player between the two.

Triple: De Minaur + Busta + Van de Zandschulp @2.08

Paul vs Korda

Paul has improved a lot this year, compared to last year, when Korda beat him three times. Even then, two of the matches went the distance.
Paul is on his way up, Korda has dropped from 22 to 52.

Bet 1: Over 39.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Paul @2.00

Medvedev vs Rinderknech

Medvedev breezed through the first round.
Rinderknech is not as good as he was last year.

Bet: Under 28.5 games @1.84

Coric vs Brooksby

Jenson Brooksby is a good hard-court player. He had a run to the final in Atlanta, but he's had disappointing results since.

Coric doesn’t seem to have carried his Cincinnati form into New York. He spent five sets, more than 4 hours, battling lowly Enzo Couacaud in the first round. Although he got the eventual victory, his form was quite clearly not what it was when he was able to inflict so much damage in Cincinnati.

I think this might end up being a real battle, four or even five sets.

Bet: Over 39.5 games @1.91

Coria vs Alcaraz

Alcaraz is by far the better player between these two.
He has lost only nine matches so far this year and has already won four titles on the main tour.

Coria plays mainly on clay and doesn't have the weapons to disturb Alcaraz too much. I expect Alcaraz to take care of business in 3 quick sets.

Bet: Under 27.5 games @1.82

Kecmanovic v Gasquet
The old guy may be getting tired but I think he still has enough left in the tank to sneak a set here and run Serb close in at least another one.

Match Games over 38.5 @ evens

The Vann wrote: Kecmanovic v Gasquet
The old guy may be getting tired but I think he still has enough left in the tank to sneak a set here and run Serb close in at least another one.

Match Games over 38.5 @ evens

Just bad luck, mate, Kecmanovic had quite a few opportunities to sneak one more game.

Fognini vs Nadal

It is well known that Fognini becomes a different player when he plays Nadal.

Nadal lost a set to little-known wild card Rinky Hijikata in the first round.
Even if Nadal wins in straight sets, Fognini should cover. Asking him to lose 3, 3 and 4 really shouldn’t be too much. He may even take a set himself.

Bet: Fognini +8.5 @1.90

Tommy Paul vs Casper Ruud

These two players met three times before and every time they both won sets.

Bet: Over 38.5 games @1.83

Galan Riveros vs Fokina

Cachin vs Moutet

Galan Riveros beat Tsitsipas and then Jordan Thompson. He came out of nowhere, playing mostly on clay and here he is now in the third round at the US Open.
Fokina climbed through the rankings this year to reach number 39. He is by far the better player of these two and I expect him to end Galan's fairy tale at the US Open.

Pedro Cachin has spent nearly eight hours on the court to win two matches so far in this US Open campaign. He wasted a two-set lead and later won the deciding set in the super tiebreaker against the out-of-form and unfit Aljaz Bedene in the first round, and fought back from two sets down and again got the job done in the super tiebreaker against lowly ranked (303) Brandon Holt in the second round.
Cachin plays mainly in Challenger events and mainly on clay.

Moutet defeated Stan Wawrinka in the first round and followed it up with a solid four-set win over last year's quarterfinalist Botic Van De Zandschulp in the second round.
These two players met at Lyon Challenger in June where Moutet won comfortably in straight sets.
The Frenchman is the more talented player of these two and I expect him to take care of business here.

Bet: Fokina + Moutet @1.90

Murray vs Berrettini

Murray said, "Physically this is the best I have felt in the last few years. My movement is by far the best it has been in a long time, that has always been an important part of my game. I’m getting closer to where I want to be, and hopefully, I can have a deep run here."

Berrettini is one of the favourites to win the tournament, but Murray has impressed through two rounds, especially from a physical standpoint.

Let's see how long this one will go.

Bet: Over 38.5 games @1.90

Khachanov vs Jack Draper

The world has finally begun to notice Draper and he is the favourite to win this match.
He is without question one of the top rising stars in the game. Draper reached the quarterfinals in both Montreal and Winston-Salem and now he is crushing opponents in New York, very good opponents, too. Draper opened with a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 dispatch of Emil Ruusuvuori and then had no trouble sending Felix Auger-Aliassime home 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.

Khachanov has been going in the opposite direction from Draper since capturing the silver medal at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. He had been just 6-6 in his last 12 matches prior to the US Open.
Khachanov won his first two matches here in four sets over Denis Kudla and Thiago Monteiro, much lower calibre than Draper's victims.
I think Draper's lefty serve will be especially tough on the Khachanov backhand and should carry him into the second week of this Grand Slam.

Bet: Draper @1.68
Double: Draper + Moutet @2.27

Pity about Draper last night. At least got stake back with a small profit for the single.

Shapovalov v Rublev
Games are high here but I think a couple of sets will run to 12-13 games so could make the line in four sets
Match games over 40.5 @ 19/20

All to win
Alcaraz/Tiafoe/Cilic @ 7/4

Medvedev vs Kyrgios

These two players are known for their big amount of aces.
Also, their 3 matches played on hard courts had the first set a tie-breaker.

Bet 1: Over 40.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: First set score any players - 7-6 @3.00
Bet 3: First set total games Over 10.5 @2.37
Bet 4: Over 36.5 Aces @1.83

Cameron Norrie vs Andrey Rublev

Norrie is in great form here. He hasn't lost a set yet.
Rublev has spent a lot of time on court so far. In the previous round he defeated Shapovalov after a very entertaining 5-setter with a super tie-break in the 5th set.

Norrie has been very good this year, he reached the semifinals at Wimbledon, his improvement this year is obvious.
Rublev on the other hand, has dropped out of top 10 after his poor results in the North American tournaments prior to the US Open, when he lost to Nishioka, Evans and Fritz.

Bet 1: Norrie to win @1.69

Bet 2: Double N (N²): Norrie + Nadal @1.94

Danielle Rose Collins vs Aryna Sabalenka 

Danielle Collins lost in the first round in Wimbledon and Lausanne, and before this tournament she has not played on hard at all.
Here she defeated Osaka, Bucsa and Cornet without losing a set.

Sabalenka has a very good serve and here she defeated Harrison, Kanepi and Burel. She saved two match points in the second set tie-break against Kanepi and turned it around to win the match.

This is the 4th match between these two players, and Sabalenka won all three so far, including two times at the US Open, last time being one year ago (6-3 6-3).

Bet 1: Sabalenka @1.80

Bet 2: Double S (S²) Sabalenka + Swiatek @2.07

Top calls Medvedev match Quill.
Tiafoe v Nadal
Should leave this for Quill but am sampling some red vino pre-bottling so popped this on before the wheels fall off.

Tiafoe under 14.5 games @ 9/10

Stosur/Ebden have had good results in mixed doubles, they are favourites to win their encounter against Flipkens/Roger-Vasselin and I believe that.

Alcaraz already beat Cilic two times this year on the American hard courts in Miami and Cincinnati, both times 2-0.
Sinner should take care of Ivashka, so I'm taking

Stosur/Ebden + Ivashka + Alcaraz @2.22

Berrettini vs Ruud

I have Berrettini to win it all here (now Kyrgios is the favourite to win, but at 2.75 is not worth it).

These two players met 5 times, Ruud leading 3-2.
Four of those matches have been on clay courts and only one on hard, here at US Open in 2020, when Berrettini won in 3 sets.
Regardless, my impression is that Berrettini is better, more dangerous on hard courts than Ruud.

Bet: Berrettini to win @1.82

Kyrgios vs Khachanov

These two players met twice so far, both times on hard courts: in Cincinnati in 2019 and at the Australian Open in 2020, and both times the matches went the distance.
Also, in both matches there were tons of aces on both sides.

I expect the same here, of course.

Bet 1: Total Aces Over 36.5 @1.82
Bet 2: Total Games Over 37.56 @1.83

Quill wrote: Kyrgios vs Khachanov

These two players met twice so far, both times on hard courts: in Cincinnati in 2019 and at the Australian Open in 2020, and both times the matches went the distance.
Also, in both matches there were tons of aces on both sides.

I expect the same here, of course.

Bet 1: Total Aces Over 36.5 @1.82
Bet 2: Total Games Over 37.56 @1.83

A Festival of Aces with these two guys!

Nice pick Quill. I think it safe to say Kyrgios was a little upset with his racquets.

Rublev v Tiafoe
Don't see long sets in this match and I expect even a four setter to finish short of the games line
Match games
Under 40.5 @ 9/10

With most of the recent matches going to the longer odds player taking this double today
To win
Tiafoe + Sinner @ 4/1

I think Kyrgios was at least impolite towards Khachanov, as he had just congratulated him at the net, then proceeded to smash his racquets right there and then.

Sinner vs Alcaraz

These two guys will become the new big rivalry in tennis.
Although their recent matches have been long, the sets have been on the shorter side, and if the number of games was 40.5 I'd have gone under.

Bet: Over 38.5 games @1.83

Saying that, I will also take a double in set numbers.

Rublev vs Tiafoe over 3.5 sets
Sinner vs Alcaraz over 3.5 sets
Total odds @2.00

In the Rublev vs Tiafoe match I think we'll have quite a few aces.

Bet: Over 26.5 aces @1.88

Sinner vs Alcaraz, just beautiful tennis!
The way they go after every ball, the shots they make one after another, top quality from them.

Acing the aces bets Quill, awesome stuff

Caroline Garcia vs Ons Jabeur
Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka

Garcia is in great form. After Wimbledon she played 8 matches in Cincinnati, as she had to qualify for the main draw, and won the tournament. She continued her great form into US Open where she hasn't lost a set until now in the semifinals.

Jabeur wasn't so good in the warm-up tournaments for the US Open and although she is now in the semifinals here, Garcia is looking very good.

Swiatek beat Sabalenka three times this year already, so it seems that she has her number. Moreover, she is the absolute dominant player in women's tennis this year.

Garcia + Swiatek @2.50

Longer odds have been landing in the later rounds
Both to win
Khachanov + Tiafoe @ 7/1

Alcaraz vs Tiafoe

Alcaraz is coming after two very long matches, a total of 9 hours 14 minutes of tennis, some great matches against Cilic and Sinner. 

Tiafoe was dominant in all his matches here, losing only one set in 5 matches. His serve is great and in 7 sets played against top players like Nadal and Rublev, he lost his serve only two times.
Alcaraz may be very fit, but the fact that he spent so much time on court in the last few days might affect him.
This is the third encounter between the two players, and Tiafoe beat him both times, last time in June on grass at Hurlingham.

Tiafoe fired 18 aces against Nadal and Rublev.
Prior to that he had 9 aces against Schwartzman and 15 and 16 aces in the first two rounds.

Bet 1: Tiafoe win @2.62 (1/3 stake)
Bet 2: Tiafoe +3.5 @1.88 (2/3 stake)
Bet 3: Total Aces Tiafoe - Over 10.5 @1.99

The Vann wrote: Longer odds have been landing in the later rounds
Both to win
Khachanov + Tiafoe @ 7/1

I've been looking at the Khachanov's match against Ruud and still couldn't figure out why is Ruud such a big favourite. Not denying that he shouldn't be, but at such small odds!

I'm betting on Khachanov too.

Ruud vs Alcaraz

OK, I saw why Ruud was a big favourite against Khachanov, but I also saw why Alcaraz should win this.
The desire, the power to stay in, the way he got his revenge against Sinner, and at 19 years of age, I don't want to hear that he is tired because he played so many 5-setters in a row.
Remember when we were 19? We were moving mountains, we were invincible.

He showed that he's got the "umph" to win this.

Bet: Alcaraz -3.5 @1.80

Ruud v Alcaraz
Leaving my Alcaraz outright uncovered as I think he should win here. I don't see sets going deep in this match as neither player has a massive serve and could be broken at any time.
Match Games
Under 40.5 @ 21/20

The Vann wrote: Ruud v Alcaraz
Leaving my Alcaraz outright uncovered as I think he should win here. I don't see sets going deep in this match as neither player has a massive serve and could be broken at any time.
Match Games
Under 40.5 @ 21/20

Well done, sir, what a good bet to end this tournament!