URC Round 9, Gallagher Prem Week 12 + other Rugby 2-4 December
- Brent Graham
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I then fired Lions over 34.5 and over 4.5 tries (late a stupid decision) so perhaps luckily I closed up shop before the Sharks game.
Unders was the call by many but I was probably going to buy Sharks points and they couldn't get one. I tweeted this morning that I reckon this is the first time in history that a team has started double digit favs and failed to score a point. It must also be close to the biggest ever handicap swing (50 points) from a team that has started double digit underdogs
Anyway on we roll and a hectic week for me as flying to the UK with my family on Friday to watch my son play on a rugby tour.
Here are my URC projected handicaps* and there is also Gallagher Prem action
Sharks -10.5 v Ospreys
Edinburgh -5.5 v Munster
Stormers -15.5 v Dragons
Zebre +4.5 v Glasgow
Connacht -9.5 v Benetton
Bulls -15.5 v Cardiff
Leinster -9.5 v Ulster
Lions -12.5 v Ulster - sorry Scarlets
*I am assuming that Irish, Italian and Scottish internationals will be returning to action
This week's THE HANDICAP rugby betting who may be the last of the year - click here to set a reminder and subscribe
I will try to make amends for a poor week in the newsletter which will likely go out on Thursday - Join us here
Cheers
BG
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- wslark1
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- England players should have a weeks rest - however not 100% - Fringe players will go straight back in
- * = favorite
BAT v HAR* -2.5
LON* v NEW -4.5
GLO* v NOR -3.5
BRI v LEI* -5.5
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- southpaw
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Bulls -13 @ 10/11
I don't see Bulls not pitching up like Sharks. Tough for Cardiff to follow up that win, Bulls have a few Boks straight back into training today.
I also took this on lines from other games not being value, eg. Sharks -15. Why would anyone touch that if Bulls are minus 13.
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- Brent Graham
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Agree with South on the Bulls
Sharks -10.5 (-15.5) v Ospreys - 5 points
Edinburgh -5.5 (-1.5) v Munster 4 points
Stormers -15.5 (-21.5) v Dragons 6 points
Zebre +4.5 (+14.5) v Glasgow 10 points
Connacht -9.5 (-9.5) v Benetton
Bulls -15.5 (-14.5) v Cardiff
Leinster -9.5 (-10.5) v Ulster
Lions -12.5 (-11.5) v Scarlets
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- shaft
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Stormers' Boks resting plus neutral venue.
"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Kirky
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Ospreys +14.5 (Sunbet) is my pick.
Munster on the board @ 2.10 (Sunbet) v Edinburgh (wrong favorite)
Leinster v Ulster. Ulster +10.5 @ 1.81 (or Leinster 1-12)
In Gallagher Premiership: Bath +1.5 or on the board @ 2.10 v Harlequins (wrong favorite)
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- Pablo
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Zebre playing well specially at home while Glasgow underperforming away from Scotstoun. I don't understand this line so I'm going with the italians, no worries.
Good weather expected in Brentford on Saturday evening so I expect points flowing. Line looks low for a Saturday evening match.
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- Pablo
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- Kirky
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Hah, as it happens I've got Bath +1.5 as banker in 3 accumulators, as well as a 2 unit strike on the board. This is a purposeful brown-eye at my 'Friday nite jinx', I've had a good run of form recently, and I'm tempting the fates again.Pablo wrote: Agree with Kirky I'm with Bath +5 ha @1.763 (line in Pinnacle is golden). Strong lineup
Not to mention ridicule 
The clock is ticking, I don't think Quins are gonna beat them at home.
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- coil
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I've taken plus 17.5 Ospreys and also cannot believe the cap against the Sharks , a few changes and even more disruptions though one would expect a huge difference to last week's performance , will be looking at going under on the points as well , hoping for mid 50's , one worry is this Irish referee , he just loves points in the few games he's been involved in so far .
Edinburgh are half point favourites against Munster and though I don't like going for Scottish sides in general I do think they will win it .
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- Brent Graham
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Join us live if you can
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- Pablo
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coil wrote: Nice thoughts lads , the Bath game tomorrow night will be close as the betting suggests , Quins can never be written off being such a plucky side and as I'm also on the Bath plus 2.5 train I'm sure we'll be sweating until the final whistle .
I've taken plus 17.5 Ospreys and also cannot believe the cap against the Sharks , a few changes and even more disruptions though one would expect a huge difference to last week's performance , will be looking at going under on the points as well , hoping for mid 50's , one worry is this Irish referee , he just loves points in the few games he's been involved in so far .
Edinburgh are half point favourites against Munster and though I don't like going for Scottish sides in general I do think they will win it .
Also agree with you on Edinburgh dnb, @1.80 in bet365 is valuable. Pretty strong lineup and, although Munster is strong as well, they have some important absences in the backline. Edinburgh should be more favourite playing at home.
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- mackem
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Sharks v Ospreys
goodforthegame.co.za/United-Rugby-Champi...review-and-tips.html
4 units Ospreys Under 18.5 points at 8/10 at Sportingbet
Stomrers v Dragons
goodforthegame.co.za/United-Rugby-Champi...review-and-tips.html
4 units Dragons +23.5 at 17/20 at Sportingbet
Bulls v Cardiff
goodforthegame.co.za/United-Rugby-Champi...review-and-tips.html
6 units Blue Bulls over 32.5 points at 5/6 at WSB
Lions v Scarlets
goodforthegame.co.za/United-Rugby-Champi...review-and-tips.html
5 Units Lions over 31.5 at 9/10 at WSB
twitter: @goodforthegame
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- Kirky
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Our reading of the Bath game, coupled with my Friday nite jinx (I'm not even superstitious), had me a bit shaky on my call, but the rubber-stamps from both the Conductor and Thought On Sports on last nite's Handicap show, has soothed my fear somewhat.coil wrote: Nice thoughts lads , the Bath game tomorrow night will be close as the betting suggests , Quins can never be written off being such a plucky side and as I'm also on the Bath plus 2.5 train I'm sure we'll be sweating until the final whistle .
I've taken a bit more on the board and some 1-12 @ 2.90 Bath.
Guys, may the betting Gods smile upon us all.
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- Quill
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Fiji vs Uruguay
Bet 1: Fiji -24.5 @1.90
Bet 2: Fiji over 33.5 points @1.85
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- Quill
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Australia vs Kenya
Bet 1: Australia -17.5 @1.90
Bet 2: Total Over 38.5 points @2.01
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- Quill
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Ireland vs Uganda
Uganda played a great match against France earlier, losing 10-7 towards the end of the match.
Hopefully they'll keep it close to Ireland, two converted tries sounds good enough.
Bet: Uganda +14.5 @1.80
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- Quill
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Samoa vs USA
These two teams are sitting together at the top of their group with two wins each.
At the Sevens World Cup in September Samoa beat USA 40-12.
Samoa conceded 17 points from Japan today, so I expect USA to be able to score at least 15.
Bet 1: Samoa -6.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Samoa over 21.5 points @1.85
Bet 3: USA over 14.5 points @2.05
Bet 4: Total over 36.5 points @1.83
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- Jameson
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Why didn't I go unders ffs
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- Chiefie
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Jameson wrote: Sharks total shite again .....
Why didn't I go unders ffs
This is even worse than last week. Lol.
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- Jameson
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Chiefie wrote:
Jameson wrote: Sharks total shite again .....
Why didn't I go unders ffs
This is even worse than last week. Lol.
I cant recall a game with more errors !
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- Laraxwell
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Actually think Attitude is much better from Sharks but Ospreys have turned up.
Maybe Sharks are just not as good as some folk think
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- Jameson
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mackem wrote: Hi guys, wishing Brent a safe and memorable trip to the UK, here are the URC previews and his picks
Unlikely, as it appears he's staying in the London area and not off west to Bath and Cardiff!
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- R3V3R3NT_
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- Kirky
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So Lady Friday Night Jinx fucks me again on Bath and the Sharks. If I ever get my hands around her throat, I'll,.. I'll.., I'll... no, shouldn't declare such things publicly other than to say it won't be kisses I'll be planting on her forehead.Kirky wrote: I think 5 days is not enough time for the Sharks to get their act together enough to beat the Ospreys by 2 tries:
Ospreys +14.5 (Sunbet) is my pick.
Munster on the board @ 2.10 (Sunbet) v Edinburgh (wrong favorite)
Leinster v Ulster. Ulster +10.5 @ 1.81 (or Leinster 1-12)
In Gallagher Premiership: Bath +1.5 or on the board @ 2.10 v Harlequins (wrong favorite)
4 bets dead with Bath, 1 with Sharks, and to cap it off Munster too.
Was right about the Sharks though, except I didn't correctly factor in just how utterly shit the Ospreys are. The Sharks have never received a 7 point gift like that, with the clock in the red, ever in their history. Sharks by 15 - and i'm holding +14.5
Aaargh, just another shitty start to my punting weekend, even the Munster call I got wrong because I was on them at 1-12, Fuckit.
This is just so fucked up - On Superbru I'm consistently in the top 10%, but punting I can't pick a handicap, and my bookie is a shocker (sunbet) with points lines, anyway going over or under a point line, given their (bookies) accuracy, seems to me a bit a coin-toss - heads or tails.
So nou ja. my rant is done done.
Watched the replays: either of them could have gone my way. Only that bitch 'Lady Luck' said "NO".
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- Jameson
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- coil
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Had a large bet on Edinburgh outright at 5/7 , and a bigger bet on Bath plus 3.5 at 4/5 .
Edinburgh were just useless but Bath .... two potential tries un awarded as they tried to dot down before they were even over the line and against 13 men they don't go for a scrum , I'm appalled and was so mad I missed Dragons and Zebre on both plusses .
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- Pablo
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coil wrote: I can relate to the frustration of Friday nights events , I started off well , Ospreys plus and unders in the Sharks game , then it all went pear shaped .
Had a large bet on Edinburgh outright at 5/7 , and a bigger bet on Bath plus 3.5 at 4/5 .
Edinburgh were just useless but Bath .... two potential tries un awarded as they tried to dot down before they were even over the line and against 13 men they don't go for a scrum , I'm appalled and was so mad I missed Dragons and Zebre on both plusses .
Bath should have won but poor game management at the end and poor kicking display by Bailey went Harlequins way. As with Zebre +14.5 both were valuebets (Bath ended evens and Zebre +8.5) so both are winning bets in the long term. At least o53 in Irish-Newcastle landed safely.
For tomorrow Castres+Toulon @1.537 3u looks nice. Castres almost impossible to beat at Pierre-Fabre and Racing rotates for this match so Toulon should win this one, -8 looks nice as well but I prefer the combo as I don´t trust Toulon to beat the handicap even if its valuable.
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- Chiefie
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Pablo wrote:
coil wrote: I can relate to the frustration of Friday nights events , I started off well , Ospreys plus and unders in the Sharks game , then it all went pear shaped .
Had a large bet on Edinburgh outright at 5/7 , and a bigger bet on Bath plus 3.5 at 4/5 .
Edinburgh were just useless but Bath .... two potential tries un awarded as they tried to dot down before they were even over the line and against 13 men they don't go for a scrum , I'm appalled and was so mad I missed Dragons and Zebre on both plusses .
Bath should have won but poor game management at the end and poor kicking display by Bailey went Harlequins way. As with Zebre +14.5 both were valuebets (Bath ended evens and Zebre +8.5) so both are winning bets in the long term. At least o53 in Irish-Newcastle landed safely.
For tomorrow Castres+Toulon @1.537 3u looks nice. Castres almost impossible to beat at Pierre-Fabre and Racing rotates for this match so Toulon should win this one, -8 looks nice as well but I prefer the combo as I don´t trust Toulon to beat the handicap even if its valuable.
The state of welsh rugby. It’s quite sad.
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- Jameson
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Being taken apart and need a massive turn around. 12- 23 the 1/2 time score.
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- southpaw
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If it wasn’t for Sunday curse would be flying into the over 53.5 in Joburg. I’ve just undone so many good Saturdays on a Sunday I’m heavily resisting getting involved. At the moment!
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- Mondo86
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- Brad Breath
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Scarlets +10.5 @ 1.90
Smaller play Scarlets over 23.5 @ 1.85
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- Chiefie
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Brad Breath wrote: Think the Scarlets might have a good crack here
Scarlets +10.5 @ 1.90
Smaller play Scarlets over 23.5 @ 1.85
If there aren’t 100 points in this game I will be bitterly disappointed.
Scarlets are the only team to stand in the way of a Welsh clean sweep this weekend.
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- Kirky
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I'm going to find 4/5 games that are more or less certainties, (and with 20 games per weekend I'm sure to pick the winner in 19 of them, borne out by my superbru stats), and make 1 accumulator.
So, 4 or 5 games at odds like 1.35 each (typically the -6.5 to -10.5 bookies favorites) is going to add up to about 2.20, or if I can get the odds up to about 3.00 them I'll put my entire weekend's gambling budget onto it, and let the devil do as he wants.
Essentially this new strategy is going by driven by 'not losing money'.
I'm going to sit back and enjoy the games, and either I win, or I lose.
I reckon if I can win like this consistantly for the about the next six months, I'll have got some of the money I've donated to the bookie's widow's pension fund over he past couple of years.
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- Chiefie
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It’s a fucking joke.
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote: Nothing I enjoy more than goal kickers shanking it from dead in front when backing overs.
It’s a fucking joke.
Not as much as a joke as lions butchering tries.
How has nohamba not scored that.
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote: Nothing I enjoy more than goal kickers shanking it from dead in front when backing overs.
It’s a fucking joke.
Not as much as a joke as lions butchering tries.
How has nohamba not scored that.
This scarlets fly half - ha ha ha, just got run over. Who is this child?
Reminds of a Dutchman being dumped in the Margate shore break in the December holidays.
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote: Nothing I enjoy more than goal kickers shanking it from dead in front when backing overs.
It’s a fucking joke.
Not as much as a joke as lions butchering tries.
How has nohamba not scored that.
This scarlets fly half - ha ha ha, just got run over. Who is this child?
Reminds of a Dutchman being dumped in the Margate shore break in the December holidays.
Lions butchering more tries with an open line.
Christ. This might be my last bet if this over doesn’t hit.
I can’t believe what I’m seeing.
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote: Nothing I enjoy more than goal kickers shanking it from dead in front when backing overs.
It’s a fucking joke.
Not as much as a joke as lions butchering tries.
How has nohamba not scored that.
This scarlets fly half - ha ha ha, just got run over. Who is this child?
Reminds of a Dutchman being dumped in the Margate shore break in the December holidays.
Lions butchering more tries with an open line.
Christ. This might be my last bet if this over doesn’t hit.
I can’t believe what I’m seeing.
5 tries butchered. This is village.
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote: Nothing I enjoy more than goal kickers shanking it from dead in front when backing overs.
It’s a fucking joke.
Not as much as a joke as lions butchering tries.
How has nohamba not scored that.
This scarlets fly half - ha ha ha, just got run over. Who is this child?
Reminds of a Dutchman being dumped in the Margate shore break in the December holidays.
Lions butchering more tries with an open line.
Christ. This might be my last bet if this over doesn’t hit.
I can’t believe what I’m seeing.
5 tries butchered. This is village.
6 tries butchered
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote: Nothing I enjoy more than goal kickers shanking it from dead in front when backing overs.
It’s a fucking joke.
Not as much as a joke as lions butchering tries.
How has nohamba not scored that.
This scarlets fly half - ha ha ha, just got run over. Who is this child?
Reminds of a Dutchman being dumped in the Margate shore break in the December holidays.
Lions butchering more tries with an open line.
Christ. This might be my last bet if this over doesn’t hit.
I can’t believe what I’m seeing.
5 tries butchered. This is village.
6 tries butchered
7 tries butchered
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
Chiefie wrote: Nothing I enjoy more than goal kickers shanking it from dead in front when backing overs.
It’s a fucking joke.
Not as much as a joke as lions butchering tries.
How has nohamba not scored that.
This scarlets fly half - ha ha ha, just got run over. Who is this child?
Reminds of a Dutchman being dumped in the Margate shore break in the December holidays.
Lions butchering more tries with an open line.
Christ. This might be my last bet if this over doesn’t hit.
I can’t believe what I’m seeing.
5 tries butchered. This is village.
6 tries butchered
7 tries butchered
And 6 missed kicks. What a shower of shit.
About 30 points left out there
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- southpaw
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- Chiefie
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southpaw wrote: Thank goodness for 5yr old birthday party invites, avoided being tempted into a Sunday overs trap. Feels like a win! Lions just can’t be trusted like Bulls.
Yep, left about £1,000 out there on that final result. Was my final leg on 3 bets. Jesus wept.
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