Heineken Champions Cup, Challenge Cup + other Rugby 20-22 January

A bit of an up and down weekend for me with nice wins on the Sharks handicap and Exeter overs however I had got off to a bad start so those games put me slightly ahead only to finish down after backing overs in the Stormers game

Onto this week and we have Heineken Cup and Challenge Cup - the final round of group action.

I will focus on the Champions Cup for now - here is a short summary for each game and a predicted handicap (warning this could be way out as I am only getting back into things and I could see a couple of teams making big changes due to their position on the log)

Lyon +5.5 v Bulls
Lyon are 10th n the group and could still sneak into the top 8 to qualify. The Bulls are 6th and just need a bonus point to qualify and they will likely go through even if they don't have one. A tough game to handicap - do Lyon feel they have any hope?

Leicester -13.5 v Ospreys
Ospreys are 5th in their group and likely to qualify even if they lose. They just need a bonus point to ensure qualification. Leicester are 3rd in their group and in the last 16.

Northampton +12.5 v La Rochelle
Northampton are bottom of the log and only have a mathematical chance of qualifying. La Rochelle are 2nd in their group and already qualified.

Harlequins -5.5 v Sharks
Quins are 7th and need a win to ensure qualification. The Sharks are 2nd and qualified

Bordeaux +8.5 v Gloucester
Bordeaux are 11th and Gloucester 9th in Pool A - both could in theory still qualify with a win.. A tough game no idea the motivation levels of Bordeaux in particular

Leinster -25.5 v Racing 92
Leinster are top of their group and a bonus point will will ensure they finish there.. Racing are 8th in the same group and have qualification in their own hands. Will Racing even try?

Exeter -22.5 v Castres
Exeter are 4th in their Pool (A) and have qualified. Castre have yet to get a point in the same pool and have only a mathematical chance of going through

Stormers -24.5 v Clermont
Stormers are 4th in pool B and should qualify even in defeat - a bonus point would ensure passage to the last 16. Clermont are 8th and at risk if they lose. I am thinking the French will send a B team

Ulster +5.5 v Sale
10th v 9th in Group B. Another tough one - I am frankly guessing with the cap

Montpellier -22.5 v London Irish
Montpellier are 7th in Pool B with Irish 11th. Irish would need a bonus point win and other results to go their way to qualify. I think Irish send a weakened team

Toulouse -16.5 v Munster
Toulouse are top of group B and qualified. Munster are 6th and likely to qualify even if they lose

Edinburgh +9.5 v Saracens
Edinburgh are 5th in Pool A and qualified. Saracens are 3rd and qualified - cap I have no idea but should be an open game


The Handicap and Newsletter will return this week!

Here are my caps v current caps - left original comments

Lyon +5.5 v Bulls (-1.5)
Lyon are 10th n the group and could still sneak into the top 8 to qualify. The Bulls are 6th and just need a bonus point to qualify and they will likely go through even if they don't have one. A tough game to handicap - do Lyon feel they have any hope?

Leicester -13.5 v Ospreys (-11.5)
Ospreys are 5th in their group and likely to qualify even if they lose. They just need a bonus point to ensure qualification. Leicester are 3rd in their group and in the last 16.

Northampton +12.5 v La Rochelle (+19.5)
Northampton are bottom of the log and only have a mathematical chance of qualifying. La Rochelle are 2nd in their group and already qualified.

Harlequins -5.5 v Sharks(-1.5)
Quins are 7th and need a win to ensure qualification. The Sharks are 2nd and qualified

Bordeaux +8.5 v Gloucester (-5.5)
Bordeaux are 11th and Gloucester 9th in Pool A - both could in theory still qualify with a win.. A tough game no idea the motivation levels of Bordeaux in particular.

Leinster -25.5 v Racing 92 (-18.5)
Leinster are top of their group and a bonus point will will ensure they finish there.. Racing are 8th in the same group and have qualification in their own hands. Will Racing even try?

Exeter -22.5 v Castres (-26.5)
Exeter are 4th in their Pool (A) and have qualified. Castre have yet to get a point in the same pool and have only a mathematical chance of going through

Stormers -24.5 v Clermont (-15.5) opened -11.5
Stormers are 4th in pool B and should qualify even in defeat - a bonus point would ensure passage to the last 16. Clermont are 8th and at risk if they lose. I am thinking the French will send a B team

Ulster +5.5 v Sale (-5.5)
10th v 9th in Group B. Another tough one - I am frankly guessing with the cap

Montpellier -22.5 v London Irish (-20.5)
Montpellier are 7th in Pool B with Irish 11th. Irish would need a bonus point win and other results to go their way to qualify. I think Irish send a weakened team

Toulouse -16.5 v Munster (-15.5)
Toulouse are top of group B and qualified. Munster are 6th and likely to qualify even if they lose

Edinburgh +9.5 v Saracens (+5.5)
Edinburgh are 5th in Pool A and qualified. Saracens are 3rd and qualified - cap I have no idea but should be an open game

Got some pretty close and well out on others. Stormers line was biggest difference but moving closer

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Stormers v Clermont betting preview

I suspect this line will continue to move out and taking the -15.5

Lyon v Bulls betting preview

Bulls over 21.5 at 0.82/1

Going to wait for teams before putting up a bet in the Sharks game

Thanks man yeah I saw like a 3 degree max forecast today - a bit concerned about that Lyon team but I am hoping for an open game

Bulls were awful - only consolation for me was that I dozed for most of the match

Quins v Sharks preview

Over 55.5 - line a few points higher than what I was hoping for but nothing else stands out

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Lucky Draw

Prize is R100 bet on HCC outright - I take the bet at Betway and if it wins eft stake and profits to you

Dragons v Lions Preview

Either team by 7 or less at 23/20

Will wait for points line for Cheetahs match

Leinster over 38.5 fornme - think Racing drop heads

Can't believe how poor those Stormers were in the 1st half - I had also added Stormers over 34.5 so badly needed 1 more try to land both bets which has been written off at the break

In the end both lose, its the hope that kills

Still can't find points lines for Challenge Cup games

Cheetahs v Pau

Couldn't wait for points any longer as have a lunch to attend - Cheetahs by 1-12 at 6/4

Thank goodness I missed points lines on the Cheetahs game - would have been overs for sure

As it is the 1-12 lands with a great final kick

Saracens -5.5 my final play of the weekend