URC Week 7 Gallagher Prem Week 8 plus other rugby 1-3 December

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5 months 4 days ago #1 by Brent Graham
It was a bit of a mixed bag rugby punting wise for me foolishly talking myself out of an overs play and into an unders play in the Lions game. Fortunately I had a big winner on the Summer Cup (thanks Chris and Royal Victory) and so I stormed into the newsletter Best Bet Bulls over 36.5 and also added some over 37.5
Full of confidence I was also big on the Sharks minus and although I gave some back chasing leinster overs I managed to recover from a poor Friday night and finish well ahead.

There is Gallagher Prem and URC action this weekend and here are my URC handicap projections

Munster -7.5 v Glasgow
Bulls -7.5 v Sharks
Cardiff -8.5 v Scarlets
Lions -28.5 v Dragons
Ulster -12.5 v Edinburgh
Stormers -23.5 v Zebre
Connacht +8.5 v Leinster
Benetton -7.5 v Ospreys

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5 months 4 days ago - 5 months 4 days ago #2 by Kirky
I don't have enough clarity on my punting to say anything other than that I had another decent weekend. iow I was more right than what I was wrong, ending about 5 units up, which is pretty good for me :)

I play the handicap, the win, and accumulator markets across Premiership, URC, and Top 14, as I'm trying week after week to find an edge of some kind.

Anyway, here's where I think the Premiership H/Cs will be set:

Harlequins -2.5 vs Sale Sharks (-4.5)
Bath -3.5 vs Exeter Chiefs (-7.5)
Bristol Bears -5.5 vs Gloucester (-7.5)
Saracens -8.5 vs Northampton Saints (-13.5)
Leicester Tigers -15.5 vs Newcastle Falcons (-20.5)

I'll edit the correct caps once they're released.
So caps are out at Pokerbet and I've marked them off bold and in brackets for the home team

I'm a fair bit out on some of them so I've got a bit of pondering to do, :dry: :)
Best of luck for everyone :beer
Last edit: 5 months 4 days ago by Kirky.
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5 months 4 days ago #3 by SirDesChamps00

Brent Graham wrote: It was a bit of a mixed bag rugby punting wise for me foolishly talking myself out of an overs play and into an unders play in the Lions game. Fortunately I had a big winner on the Summer Cup (thanks Chris and Royal Victory) and so I stormed into the newsletter Best Bet Bulls over 36.5 and also added some over 37.5
Full of confidence I was also big on the Sharks minus and although I gave some back chasing leinster overs I managed to recover from a poor Friday night and finish well ahead.

There is Gallagher Prem and URC action this weekend and here are my URC handicap projections

Munster -7.5 v Glasgow
Bulls -7.5 v Sharks
Cardiff -8.5 v Scarlets
Lions -28.5 v Dragons
Ulster -12.5 v Edinburgh
Stormers -23.5 v Zebre
Connacht +8.5 v Leinster
Benetton -7.5 v Ospreys

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You are being very generous with your -23.5 Stormers I think it'll be closer to 35. Zebre could be in for a BIG hammering, Libbok and Willemse probably return I think it'll be a long evening for Zebre.

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5 months 4 days ago #4 by Mondo86
If the Stormers were playing at Cape Town stadium on our new pitch I would already have a second bond and have it down on Stormers -33.5 but Stellies is a bit of a slower and heavier pitch - It seems the heatwave has made its way down to CT based on today and a hot and dry week could really make that Stellies pitch sing. A Stormers TT over anywhere under 40.5 is a slam dunk.

Stormers HT over anything under 24.5 is a slamaroni and cheese.

In the mean time, Bristol & Bath & Munster @ 2.2 is my weekend not so cheeky -

Also, Lions to put on another cricket score in JHB
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5 months 4 days ago #5 by SirDesChamps00
Hi Mondo

That pitch in Stellenbosch looked ok when you played the Scarlets and hammered them. I'm trying to figure if Team Points is a better bet than the handicap

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5 months 4 days ago #6 by Mondo86
It’s definitely not a bad pitch - just not the same as that beautiful hybrid pitch that is brewing in CT! La Rochelle beware!

I’m defiantly biased towards points punting as that’s my bread and butter but I think honestly that’s the best shout - Stormers can tend to lose focus and leak a few soft tries and when they are 30+ points ahead they aren’t going to keep the Boks on for the full 80 on their first game back surely? I think they defo should cross 50 - but could Zebre score 2/3 tries and turn the minus into an unnecessary sweat? Yes.

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5 months 4 days ago #7 by SirDesChamps00
My exact thinking too mate I'm preferring the points here. Lions to put up a big score too
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5 months 4 days ago #8 by Pablo

Mondo86 wrote: If the Stormers were playing at Cape Town stadium on our new pitch I would already have a second bond and have it down on Stormers -33.5 but Stellies is a bit of a slower and heavier pitch - It seems the heatwave has made its way down to CT based on today and a hot and dry week could really make that Stellies pitch sing. A Stormers TT over anywhere under 40.5 is a slam dunk.

Stormers HT over anything under 24.5 is a slamaroni and cheese.

In the mean time, Bristol & Bath & Munster @ 2.2 is my weekend not so cheeky -

Also, Lions to put on another cricket score in JHB


Stormers TT at 40.5 would be for a big big stake but that'd mean Zebre line opens at 7.5 ...

Zebre at 14.5 is fair enough so Stormers should start at 47.5 (total at 61.5). If you right and its around 40.5 that will be the bet of the weekend.
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5 months 4 days ago #9 by Brent Graham
Handicaps are out, Pokerbet caps in brackets

Munster -7.5 (-9.5) v Glasgow
Bulls -7.5 (-7.5) v Sharks
Cardiff -8.5 (-7.5) v Scarlets
Lions -28.5 (-28.5) v Dragons
Ulster -12.5 (-10.5) v Edinburgh
Stormers -23.5 (-33.5) v Zebre
Connacht +8.5 (+8.5) v Leinster
Benetton -7.5 (-6.5) v Ospreys

All within 2 points other than the glaring difference of 10 points in Stormers v Zebre - as pointed out by SirDes I was likely a bit too generous to Zebre with this one

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5 months 3 days ago #10 by Kirky
Something here from left field chaps...

Siya starts for Racing 92 against Clermont on Saturday. Clermont are -5.5 favorites.
I figure that he'll have a motivational boost effect on them, so I've taken a 1 unit punt on them on the board at 2.59 (pokerbet).

I think it would be so cool if he gee'd them up for it, and they won. I genuinely think that he will.

Go Siya :woohoo: :woohoo:
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5 months 3 days ago #11 by Mondo86
Bookies underpriced Bulls and Sharks last week so was hoping for the same -

Line has emerged at 46.5 which is getting up there -

Stormers over 49.5 @ 2.2 on Pokerbet is decent and -13.5 HT @1.8 looks great value

Lions over 43.5 @ 2.2 is tasty with -13HT @ 1.9

Dragons with so many injuries will really struggle to score points which makes the over a bit tricky in JHB. With these massive caps I love a cheeky HT punt.

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5 months 3 days ago #12 by Mondo86
Bookies underpriced Bulls and Sharks last week so was hoping for the same -

Line has emerged at 46.5 which is getting up there -

Stormers over 49.5 @ 2.2 on Pokerbet is decent and -13.5 HT @1.8 looks great value

Lions over 43.5 @ 2.2 is tasty with -13HT @ 1.9

Dragons with so many injuries will really struggle to score points which makes the over a bit tricky in JHB. With these massive caps I love a cheeky HT punt.

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5 months 1 day ago - 5 months 1 day ago #13 by coil
Some lovely pointers so far everyone , very nice to read and agree the Dragons should be very loose .
Freezing cold in the UK this week with snow beginning to fall here and there , not much rain to speak of but possible showers in Bath , Belfast and Galway .

Friday night Munster host Glasgow in Cork , it'll be very cold , I make Glasgow plus 9.5 a decent bet .

In the Premiership , a great game at The Stoop between Quins and Sale takes place , Sale will look to play fast if they're allowed to whilst Sale's preferred method could well be a forward battle. I couldn't find the referee appointed for the game as I do expect a few points , I'm leaning the best plus I can get for Sale ( currently 4.5 ) , they have a good record against Quins and should spar nicely throughout the match .
Last edit: 5 months 1 day ago by coil.

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5 months 1 day ago #14 by Pablo

coil wrote: Some lovely pointers so far everyone , very nice to read and agree the Dragons should be very loose .
Freezing cold in the UK this week with snow beginning to fall here and there , not much rain to speak of but possible showers in Bath , Belfast and Galway .

Friday night Munster host Glasgow in Cork , it'll be very cold , I make Glasgow plus 9.5 a decent bet .

In the Premiership , a great game at The Stoop between Quins and Sale takes place , Sale will look to play fast if they're allowed to whilst Sale's preferred method could well be a forward battle. I couldn't find the referee appointed for the game as I do expect a few points , I'm leaning the best plus I can get for Sale ( currently 4.5 ) , they have a good record against Quins and should spar nicely throughout the match .


I may be wrong but I cannot agree with Glasgow, actually I did Munster -10 ha @1.80 2u after lineups. Not a bad Glasgow side but some important missings while Munster goes as strong as posible. Glasgow is a very dangerous side and may be a tricky match but with that absences I'm leaning on Munster.

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5 months 1 day ago #15 by Brad Breath
Agree Pablo, I was initially interested in the plus, but after lineups have gone Munster -9.5 @ 1.91

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5 months 1 day ago #16 by Brent Graham
Live tonight at 21h00 with a URC preview and also a look at the Dubai 7s (high level)

Click here to watch on You Tube


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5 months 12 hours ago #17 by Brent Graham

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5 months 9 hours ago #18 by Brent Graham
Lions v Dragons Preview

Staying on the overs train

Over 58.5

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5 months 3 hours ago #19 by The Vann
Friday evening. Not a fan of Tiger or his tournament so rugby it is.

Munster v Glasgow

Glasgow over 16.5 @ 19/20

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4 months 4 weeks ago #20 by Brent Graham
Nice call Vann - I toyed with getting involved but had to fetch my son mid game and was pretty tired so left it alone

The final preview for the weekend

Stormers v Zebre

Quite pleased I have my year end poker tournament tonight as no strong feel and am no longer thinking Zebre overs and instead gone over 9.5 tries at 11/10

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4 months 4 weeks ago #21 by Mondo86
Lions over 49.5 @ 2.7

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4 months 4 weeks ago #22 by southpaw
missed the early lines, gone double @ 18/10 -

Bull Sharks over 52.5
Lion Drags over 58.5

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4 months 4 weeks ago #23 by coil
Thankfully broke square last night but biggest disappointment was Sale , completely outplayed and out thought by a very good Quins side .

Main bet today is Northampton plus 12.5

Next best Leinster minus 3.5

Racing plus 10.5

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4 months 4 weeks ago #24 by Chiefie

southpaw wrote: missed the early lines, gone double @ 18/10 -

Bull Sharks over 52.5
Lion Drags over 58.5


Willie le roux just doing Willie le roux things.

Looks like there could be 70 points in this bulls sharks game.

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4 months 4 weeks ago #25 by SirDesChamps00
Spoke too soon. There was really no need to kick it there

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4 months 4 weeks ago #26 by coil
Willie is sooooooooooooo kak

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4 months 4 weeks ago #27 by SirDesChamps00
Really disappointing that nobody is stopping the clock when there's stoppages, during the TMO check is was not stopped and again during the Bulls knock on that led to a try but was brought back..

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4 months 4 weeks ago #28 by SirDesChamps00
You've jinxed Le Roux he's made some very questionable decisions here

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4 months 4 weeks ago #29 by SirDesChamps00
Overs in big trouble
Terrible officials and very sloppy play from both sides

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4 months 4 weeks ago - 4 months 4 weeks ago #30 by Pablo
The referee in Pretoria killed the overs, it was a 70 points match ...

He missed like 5 playable minutes due to not stopping the clock with TMO´s and substitutions.
Last edit: 4 months 4 weeks ago by Pablo.

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4 months 4 weeks ago #31 by SirDesChamps00
Yeah. He was a total embarrassment that and the Sharks being absolutely useless
Time to give it up I think it's not paying for me anymore

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4 months 4 weeks ago #32 by SirDesChamps00
That's my luck. Why not just take the 3 FFS

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4 months 4 weeks ago #33 by Chiefie

SirDesChamps00 wrote: That's my luck. Why not just take the 3 FFS


This lions v dragons is a horror show.

Never seen such inept play. Wow. Tough watch.

Will be lucky to get 50 points. So wasteful from both teams.

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4 months 4 weeks ago #34 by Pablo

Chiefie wrote:

SirDesChamps00 wrote: That's my luck. Why not just take the 3 FFS


This lions v dragons is a horror show.

Never seen such inept play. Wow. Tough watch.

Will be lucky to get 50 points. So wasteful from both teams.


Dragons playing better than Lions is a clear sign of the shitshow we are watching.

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4 months 4 weeks ago #35 by Chiefie

Pablo wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

SirDesChamps00 wrote: That's my luck. Why not just take the 3 FFS


This lions v dragons is a horror show.

Never seen such inept play. Wow. Tough watch.

Will be lucky to get 50 points. So wasteful from both teams.


Dragons playing better than Lions is a clear sign of the shitshow we are watching.


Not sure if I agree. Dragons are dog. No attacking shape or execution.

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4 months 4 weeks ago #36 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Pablo wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

SirDesChamps00 wrote: That's my luck. Why not just take the 3 FFS


This lions v dragons is a horror show.

Never seen such inept play. Wow. Tough watch.

Will be lucky to get 50 points. So wasteful from both teams.


Dragons playing better than Lions is a clear sign of the shitshow we are watching.


Not sure if I agree. Dragons are dog. No attacking shape or execution.


Wouldn’t be surprised if the dragons players have their wages withheld.

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4 months 4 weeks ago - 4 months 4 weeks ago #37 by Jameson
Ospreys +14.5 @10/11 ..... :-o

Edit: Ahhhh, a lot of kids playing.
Last edit: 4 months 4 weeks ago by Jameson.

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4 months 4 weeks ago #38 by SirDesChamps00
Best of luck with your bets fellas I am giving it up, enjoyed my short time here.
Disaster of a weekend and that's it for me

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4 months 4 weeks ago #39 by coil
Ridiculous effort by the Stormers so far , Zebre the better side , I just wonder how much this surface is affecting the game .

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4 months 4 weeks ago #40 by Pablo
Imagine going with Oyonnax +4.5 and concede that last minute total joke try ...

There has to be a definition to that because unlucky isn´t.

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4 months 4 weeks ago #41 by Chiefie
Reckon we might get 44 points in the second half in stellies?

Nahhh, don’t think so. Literally can’t even land a double.

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4 months 4 weeks ago #42 by Pablo
Evan Ross has lost the ball like 4 times in the Zebre 22, Bok number 8 contender for sure ...

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4 months 4 weeks ago #43 by The Vann
Benetton v Ospreys

Ospreys over 14.5 @ 9/10

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4 months 4 weeks ago #44 by Chiefie
Upon reflection, I’m amazed Evan Roos is even playing rugby, after he underwent surgery to have his hands replaced with actual human breasts.

Good old tits for hands. Jesus.

I do think the bulls 8, Cameron Hannekom, will be a bok one day. He’s awesome.

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4 months 4 weeks ago - 4 months 4 weeks ago #45 by BuggerBoy
Bet of the weekend for me in the Dubai Sevens.

Australia Women +3.5 vs New Zealand.

Based on the way the two teams have played this weekend I was expecting this to be at least Australia -5.5. The wrong team is favoured here. Australia have demolished all of their opposition so far this weekend and played the majority of the 2nd half of the semi final vs France with 6 players and still looked the better team. New Zealand have struggled against far inferior competition, nearly losing to Canada in the Semis and only beating Brazil by 12 points.

New Zealand have really missed Tyla Nathan-Wong and Sarah Hirani this weekend. Their absences have been very apparent. Meanwhile the Aussies have the full complement and are absolutely flying.

Fully unloading the clip on Australia +3.5 @ 1.87
Last edit: 4 months 4 weeks ago by BuggerBoy.
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4 months 3 weeks ago #46 by Brent Graham

SirDesChamps00 wrote: Best of luck with your bets fellas I am giving it up, enjoyed my short time here.
Disaster of a weekend and that's it for me


Good to have had your contributions and sorry to see you go, you are welcome back anytime

A quiet weekend for me as was playing poker (you want to talk financial disaster???) but Newsletter Best bet oer 8.5 tries at Ellis scraped in at least

Never bet on 7's but great to see Blitzboks win and great call Aussies BuggerBoy

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