URC Week 7 Gallagher Prem Week 8 plus other rugby 1-3 December
- Brent Graham
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Full of confidence I was also big on the Sharks minus and although I gave some back chasing leinster overs I managed to recover from a poor Friday night and finish well ahead.
There is Gallagher Prem and URC action this weekend and here are my URC handicap projections
Munster -7.5 v Glasgow
Bulls -7.5 v Sharks
Cardiff -8.5 v Scarlets
Lions -28.5 v Dragons
Ulster -12.5 v Edinburgh
Stormers -23.5 v Zebre
Connacht +8.5 v Leinster
Benetton -7.5 v Ospreys
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- Kirky
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I play the handicap, the win, and accumulator markets across Premiership, URC, and Top 14, as I'm trying week after week to find an edge of some kind.
Anyway, here's where I think the Premiership H/Cs will be set:
Harlequins -2.5 vs Sale Sharks (-4.5)
Bath -3.5 vs Exeter Chiefs (-7.5)
Bristol Bears -5.5 vs Gloucester (-7.5)
Saracens -8.5 vs Northampton Saints (-13.5)
Leicester Tigers -15.5 vs Newcastle Falcons (-20.5)
I'll edit the correct caps once they're released.
So caps are out at Pokerbet and I've marked them off bold and in brackets for the home team
I'm a fair bit out on some of them so I've got a bit of pondering to do,
Best of luck for everyone
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- SirDesChamps00
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Brent Graham wrote: It was a bit of a mixed bag rugby punting wise for me foolishly talking myself out of an overs play and into an unders play in the Lions game. Fortunately I had a big winner on the Summer Cup (thanks Chris and Royal Victory) and so I stormed into the newsletter Best Bet Bulls over 36.5 and also added some over 37.5
Full of confidence I was also big on the Sharks minus and although I gave some back chasing leinster overs I managed to recover from a poor Friday night and finish well ahead.
There is Gallagher Prem and URC action this weekend and here are my URC handicap projections
Munster -7.5 v Glasgow
Bulls -7.5 v Sharks
Cardiff -8.5 v Scarlets
Lions -28.5 v Dragons
Ulster -12.5 v Edinburgh
Stormers -23.5 v Zebre
Connacht +8.5 v Leinster
Benetton -7.5 v Ospreys
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You are being very generous with your -23.5 Stormers I think it'll be closer to 35. Zebre could be in for a BIG hammering, Libbok and Willemse probably return I think it'll be a long evening for Zebre.
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- Mondo86
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Stormers HT over anything under 24.5 is a slamaroni and cheese.
In the mean time, Bristol & Bath & Munster @ 2.2 is my weekend not so cheeky -
Also, Lions to put on another cricket score in JHB
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- SirDesChamps00
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That pitch in Stellenbosch looked ok when you played the Scarlets and hammered them. I'm trying to figure if Team Points is a better bet than the handicap
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- Mondo86
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I’m defiantly biased towards points punting as that’s my bread and butter but I think honestly that’s the best shout - Stormers can tend to lose focus and leak a few soft tries and when they are 30+ points ahead they aren’t going to keep the Boks on for the full 80 on their first game back surely? I think they defo should cross 50 - but could Zebre score 2/3 tries and turn the minus into an unnecessary sweat? Yes.
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- SirDesChamps00
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- Pablo
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Mondo86 wrote: If the Stormers were playing at Cape Town stadium on our new pitch I would already have a second bond and have it down on Stormers -33.5 but Stellies is a bit of a slower and heavier pitch - It seems the heatwave has made its way down to CT based on today and a hot and dry week could really make that Stellies pitch sing. A Stormers TT over anywhere under 40.5 is a slam dunk.
Stormers HT over anything under 24.5 is a slamaroni and cheese.
In the mean time, Bristol & Bath & Munster @ 2.2 is my weekend not so cheeky -
Also, Lions to put on another cricket score in JHB
Stormers TT at 40.5 would be for a big big stake but that'd mean Zebre line opens at 7.5 ...
Zebre at 14.5 is fair enough so Stormers should start at 47.5 (total at 61.5). If you right and its around 40.5 that will be the bet of the weekend.
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- Brent Graham
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Munster -7.5 (-9.5) v Glasgow
Bulls -7.5 (-7.5) v Sharks
Cardiff -8.5 (-7.5) v Scarlets
Lions -28.5 (-28.5) v Dragons
Ulster -12.5 (-10.5) v Edinburgh
Stormers -23.5 (-33.5) v Zebre
Connacht +8.5 (+8.5) v Leinster
Benetton -7.5 (-6.5) v Ospreys
All within 2 points other than the glaring difference of 10 points in Stormers v Zebre - as pointed out by SirDes I was likely a bit too generous to Zebre with this one
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- Kirky
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Siya starts for Racing 92 against Clermont on Saturday. Clermont are -5.5 favorites.
I figure that he'll have a motivational boost effect on them, so I've taken a 1 unit punt on them on the board at 2.59 (pokerbet).
I think it would be so cool if he gee'd them up for it, and they won. I genuinely think that he will.
Go Siya
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- Mondo86
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Line has emerged at 46.5 which is getting up there -
Stormers over 49.5 @ 2.2 on Pokerbet is decent and -13.5 HT @1.8 looks great value
Lions over 43.5 @ 2.2 is tasty with -13HT @ 1.9
Dragons with so many injuries will really struggle to score points which makes the over a bit tricky in JHB. With these massive caps I love a cheeky HT punt.
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- Mondo86
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Line has emerged at 46.5 which is getting up there -
Stormers over 49.5 @ 2.2 on Pokerbet is decent and -13.5 HT @1.8 looks great value
Lions over 43.5 @ 2.2 is tasty with -13HT @ 1.9
Dragons with so many injuries will really struggle to score points which makes the over a bit tricky in JHB. With these massive caps I love a cheeky HT punt.
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- coil
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Freezing cold in the UK this week with snow beginning to fall here and there , not much rain to speak of but possible showers in Bath , Belfast and Galway .
Friday night Munster host Glasgow in Cork , it'll be very cold , I make Glasgow plus 9.5 a decent bet .
In the Premiership , a great game at The Stoop between Quins and Sale takes place , Sale will look to play fast if they're allowed to whilst Sale's preferred method could well be a forward battle. I couldn't find the referee appointed for the game as I do expect a few points , I'm leaning the best plus I can get for Sale ( currently 4.5 ) , they have a good record against Quins and should spar nicely throughout the match .
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- Pablo
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coil wrote: Some lovely pointers so far everyone , very nice to read and agree the Dragons should be very loose .
Freezing cold in the UK this week with snow beginning to fall here and there , not much rain to speak of but possible showers in Bath , Belfast and Galway .
Friday night Munster host Glasgow in Cork , it'll be very cold , I make Glasgow plus 9.5 a decent bet .
In the Premiership , a great game at The Stoop between Quins and Sale takes place , Sale will look to play fast if they're allowed to whilst Sale's preferred method could well be a forward battle. I couldn't find the referee appointed for the game as I do expect a few points , I'm leaning the best plus I can get for Sale ( currently 4.5 ) , they have a good record against Quins and should spar nicely throughout the match .
I may be wrong but I cannot agree with Glasgow, actually I did Munster -10 ha @1.80 2u after lineups. Not a bad Glasgow side but some important missings while Munster goes as strong as posible. Glasgow is a very dangerous side and may be a tricky match but with that absences I'm leaning on Munster.
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- Brad Breath
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- Brent Graham
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Click here to watch on You Tube
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- Brent Graham
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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Munster v Glasgow
Glasgow over 16.5 @ 19/20
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- Brent Graham
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The final preview for the weekend
Stormers v Zebre
Quite pleased I have my year end poker tournament tonight as no strong feel and am no longer thinking Zebre overs and instead gone over 9.5 tries at 11/10
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- Mondo86
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- southpaw
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Bull Sharks over 52.5
Lion Drags over 58.5
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- coil
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Main bet today is Northampton plus 12.5
Next best Leinster minus 3.5
Racing plus 10.5
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- Chiefie
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southpaw wrote: missed the early lines, gone double @ 18/10 -
Bull Sharks over 52.5
Lion Drags over 58.5
Willie le roux just doing Willie le roux things.
Looks like there could be 70 points in this bulls sharks game.
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- SirDesChamps00
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- coil
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- SirDesChamps00
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- SirDesChamps00
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- SirDesChamps00
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Terrible officials and very sloppy play from both sides
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- Pablo
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He missed like 5 playable minutes due to not stopping the clock with TMO´s and substitutions.
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- SirDesChamps00
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Time to give it up I think it's not paying for me anymore
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- SirDesChamps00
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- Chiefie
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SirDesChamps00 wrote: That's my luck. Why not just take the 3 FFS
This lions v dragons is a horror show.
Never seen such inept play. Wow. Tough watch.
Will be lucky to get 50 points. So wasteful from both teams.
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- Pablo
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Chiefie wrote:
SirDesChamps00 wrote: That's my luck. Why not just take the 3 FFS
This lions v dragons is a horror show.
Never seen such inept play. Wow. Tough watch.
Will be lucky to get 50 points. So wasteful from both teams.
Dragons playing better than Lions is a clear sign of the shitshow we are watching.
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- Chiefie
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Pablo wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
SirDesChamps00 wrote: That's my luck. Why not just take the 3 FFS
This lions v dragons is a horror show.
Never seen such inept play. Wow. Tough watch.
Will be lucky to get 50 points. So wasteful from both teams.
Dragons playing better than Lions is a clear sign of the shitshow we are watching.
Not sure if I agree. Dragons are dog. No attacking shape or execution.
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- Chiefie
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Chiefie wrote:
Pablo wrote:
Chiefie wrote:
SirDesChamps00 wrote: That's my luck. Why not just take the 3 FFS
This lions v dragons is a horror show.
Never seen such inept play. Wow. Tough watch.
Will be lucky to get 50 points. So wasteful from both teams.
Dragons playing better than Lions is a clear sign of the shitshow we are watching.
Not sure if I agree. Dragons are dog. No attacking shape or execution.
Wouldn’t be surprised if the dragons players have their wages withheld.
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- Jameson
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Edit: Ahhhh, a lot of kids playing.
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- SirDesChamps00
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Disaster of a weekend and that's it for me
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- coil
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- Pablo
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There has to be a definition to that because unlucky isn´t.
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- Chiefie
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Nahhh, don’t think so. Literally can’t even land a double.
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- Pablo
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- The Vann
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Ospreys over 14.5 @ 9/10
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- Chiefie
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Good old tits for hands. Jesus.
I do think the bulls 8, Cameron Hannekom, will be a bok one day. He’s awesome.
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- BuggerBoy
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Australia Women +3.5 vs New Zealand.
Based on the way the two teams have played this weekend I was expecting this to be at least Australia -5.5. The wrong team is favoured here. Australia have demolished all of their opposition so far this weekend and played the majority of the 2nd half of the semi final vs France with 6 players and still looked the better team. New Zealand have struggled against far inferior competition, nearly losing to Canada in the Semis and only beating Brazil by 12 points.
New Zealand have really missed Tyla Nathan-Wong and Sarah Hirani this weekend. Their absences have been very apparent. Meanwhile the Aussies have the full complement and are absolutely flying.
Fully unloading the clip on Australia +3.5 @ 1.87
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- Brent Graham
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SirDesChamps00 wrote: Best of luck with your bets fellas I am giving it up, enjoyed my short time here.
Disaster of a weekend and that's it for me
Good to have had your contributions and sorry to see you go, you are welcome back anytime
A quiet weekend for me as was playing poker (you want to talk financial disaster???) but Newsletter Best bet oer 8.5 tries at Ellis scraped in at least
Never bet on 7's but great to see Blitzboks win and great call Aussies BuggerBoy
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