Investec Champions and Challenge Cup Rugby 19-21 January

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3 months 1 week ago #1 by Brent Graham
A really poor weekend for me totally underestimating Munster and thinking Toulon were better than they were - not watching Top 14 is proving costly and I am battling to read the French teams

The Toulon loss pulled me square on the weekend having backed Lyon and the Sharks but then I flew into Leinster points again and once again they failed to score against a well beaten team in the last 12 minutes, I closed up shop after that

Here are this week fixtures with my projected handicaps - not even going to attempt handicapping

Glasgow Warriors vs. Toulon

Connacht Rugby vs. Bristol Bears

Harlequins vs. Ulster

Vodacom Bulls vs. Bordeaux

Leicester Tigers vs. Leinster

Racing 92 vs. Cardiff

Munster vs. Northampton Saints

Stade Francais vs. DHL Stormers

Saracens vs. Lyon

Sale Sharks vs. La Rochelle

Toulouse vs. Bath Rugby

Bayonne vs. Exeter Chiefs

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3 months 1 week ago #2 by coil
Agree Brent , held my own in a few games but Leinster not covering the 38.5 point cap , Cardiff capitulating like the Italians in WW2 to Quins and Saracens appalling display in Bordeaux ensured I ended the weekend firmly on the back foot . Will look to take a few gambles regarding team selections this week and try get on some what I perceive as early value.
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3 months 1 week ago #3 by Brent Graham
Opening caps at WSB

Glasgow Warriors -7.5 vs. Toulon

Connacht Rugby +0.5 vs. Bristol Bears

Harlequins -8.5 vs. Ulster

Vodacom Bulls -10.5 vs. Bordeaux

Leicester Tigers +9.5 vs. Leinster

Racing 92 -27.5 vs. Cardiff

Munster -9.5 vs. Northampton Saints

Stade Francais +5.5 vs. DHL Stormers

Saracens -17.5 vs. Lyon

Sale Sharks +6.5 vs. La Rochelle

Toulouse -17.5 vs. Bath Rugby

Bayonne +0.5 vs. Exeter Chiefs

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3 months 1 week ago #4 by southpaw
No bets down yet as want to think thru a bit more but early ones I like -

Bordeaux plus 10.5
Racing -27.5
Quins -8.5
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3 months 1 week ago #5 by Brent Graham
Here are some thoughts based on log positions - I won't claim to understand how the French think :silly:

Glasgow Warriors -7.5 vs. Toulon
4v6- every chance Toulon throw in the towel and focus on Top 14 - this handicap could move out

Connacht Rugby +0.5 vs. Bristol Bears
6v4 - Connacht look to have nothing to play for, reckon Bristol start firm favs

Harlequins -8.5 vs. Ulster
3v4 - Quins look unlikely to improve from 3rd or lose it, Ulster need to win

Vodacom Bulls -10.5 vs. Bordeaux
3v1 Bulls not safe yet I don't think, Bordeaux qualified but could lose top spot - betting suggests Bordeaux may be prepared to forfeit this one?

Leicester Tigers +9.5 vs. Leinster
3v1 - Leinster 5 points clear at top, may rest players? I like Leicester on plus here

Racing 92 -27.5 vs. Cardiff
5v6 - Both sides could sneak in if Ulster lose, Ulster result will be known by kick off.

Munster -9.5 vs. Northampton Saints
3v1 - Munster need bonus point to qualify, Saints are through but need to win to guarantee top spot

Stade Francais +5.5 vs. DHL Stormers

6v2 - Stade are gone but being at home may go for it? Stormers almost qualified and I think they will send weakened team

Saracens -17.5 vs. Lyon
5v2 - interesting betting and assumes Lyon won't chase top spot (which may be out of their reach by kick off anyway, Sarcens may have to win big to qualify

Sale Sharks +6.5 vs. La Rochelle

5v4 - basically winner goes through there should ne no resting here - Sale travelling back from SA

Toulouse -17.5 vs. Bath Rugby
1v2 - winner tops table, Bath likely to rest players and accept 2nd (need a bonus to be sure) or 3rd

Bayonne +0.5 vs. Exeter Chiefs
5v2 - Bayonne can still qualify and will know what to do, if Saints lose to Munster Exeter can finish top

I like Leicester plus 9.5 and Bristol on the board early doors

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3 months 1 week ago #6 by Pablo

southpaw wrote: No bets down yet as want to think thru a bit more but early ones I like -

Bordeaux plus 10.5
Racing -27.5
Quins -8.5


Info I have from France is that UBB may send a mixed team, so I'd wait to fire their hándicap as even their second team is pretty powerful.

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3 months 1 week ago #7 by southpaw
hmm a lot to work out. thanks Brent and Pablo.

On that possibly Ulster plus if Quins rest, and would then avoid backing the Racing minus.

Bordeaux noted pablo, will wait for a bigger plus, as you say depth is strong.

Taken treble @ 6/1 -

Bristol win
Glasgow -7
Saracens -17

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3 months 1 week ago #8 by Pablo
Adding to Top14 info, Stade Français may field a type lineup as they rotated heavily against Leinster and they visit next weekend the mighty Bordeaux in a very tough match and some regular starters need to strech their legs. Or they even throw Bordeaux's match and focus in this one and visit to Oyo the following week. Everything suggest they will field a type team so SF +5.5 looks nice (more if south african friends think that Stormers will send a mixed team)

Bayonne receives Oyo with 6 days rest after Exeter match but a friend from Bayonne told me that the feeling there is that they want to qualify for Challenge knock out. And also they are very tough to beat at home.
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3 months 1 week ago - 3 months 1 week ago #9 by Pablo
Lou will have an import match next weekend in the relegation battle (he he with the squad they have) against Usap so everything suggest they will send a second string against a wounded Saracens side. Berdeu will be for sure as he needs game time but I think here bet is Saracens -18.5 with Lou focused in next weekend next Top14 match.

Only Lucu and Moefana confirmed absences, the rest of cadres looks like will take the plane.
Last edit: 3 months 1 week ago by Pablo.
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3 months 1 week ago #10 by Profitable_Hedgehog
Replied by Profitable_Hedgehog on topic Investec Champions and Challenge Cup Rugby 19-21 January
Connacht can still qualify for the Challenge Cup with a bonus point win and with no games for the next couple of weeks after this one, they should field their strongest side. I have also heard Bristol may rest a few ahead of their Prem clash against Bath next week, as they'd face a tough away draw in the Challenge Cup if they were to make it through.
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3 months 1 week ago #11 by Laraxwell
Agree with Brent re Glasgow

Toulon surely send out the Espoirs to play Glasgow at full throttle.
I'll take Glasgow on or near that -7.5pts
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3 months 1 week ago #12 by southpaw
First mover is Bristol game they’re out to +3.5

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3 months 1 week ago #13 by Kirky

Laraxwell wrote: Agree with Brent re Glasgow

Toulon surely send out the Espoirs to play Glasgow at full throttle.
I'll take Glasgow on or near that -7.5pts

Agree, also Glasgow are gonna be mad a hell after last week.

I've put 5 units on Glasgow -6.5 @ 1.96 with Pokerbet
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3 months 1 week ago #14 by Pablo
Connacht -3.5 @1.90 2u

Blade, Bealham, Aki and O'Halloran back, Bristol with derby next weekend I think this will end up almost double digits for the home side. Tough team at home.

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3 months 1 week ago #15 by Brent Graham
Very little betting movement and only cap to move more than a point is Connacht now -3.5 from +0.5

Will be setting up The Handicap shortly and excited to welcome a 1st time guest

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3 months 1 week ago - 3 months 1 week ago #16 by Pablo
Glasgow -9.5 ha @1.70 4u

Double stake as usual, Toulon with second string lineup (Priso, Brookes, Tolofua, Ribbans, Du Preez, Abadie, White, Biggar, Paaiaua, Nayacalevu, Jaminet, Wainiqolo out; not even Ollivon back as expected) I cannot see them coping with this Glasgow lineup. Sinzelle at 10 ...
Last edit: 3 months 1 week ago by Pablo.
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3 months 1 week ago #17 by Brent Graham
Looking forward to chatting with The Mossman a 1st time guest on THE HANDICAP live at 21h00 tonight, Nathan will be early as he is based in Auckland but follow rugby around the world and says he may have some Pro D2 plays for the lads

Click here to set a reminder to watch on You Tube


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3 months 1 week ago #18 by Pablo
Castres +11.5 is tempting me heavily, lineup looks correct apart from some absences (Chilachava and Hounkpatin at 3 maybe the most importants as their replacement Azar is very weak at scrum time and there is a youngster in the bench; Nakarawa, Delaporte, Ardron and Dumora also out). Backline looks ok apart from Dumora absence (their kicking game may be affected but Palis also ok in that particular area) but as said, up front a little lighter than required. Also commitment may be an issue, you know French teams don't like the Mickey Cup ...

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3 months 1 week ago #19 by TheAdmiral
Full saints team

Taken +10.5 and Northampton win @4.75

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3 months 1 week ago #20 by Brent Graham
Holding back on the Bulls game until I see points

Stade v Stormers Preview


Stormers -4.5 at 19/20

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3 months 1 week ago #21 by Jameson
Its a sad state of affairs when the bookies are giving Scarlets a 7.5pt start, at home, to these Jocks.

Not so long ago I would have expected Edinburgh to be sent home having been on the receiving end.

But I'm a glutton for punishment so Scarlets on the plus it is....

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3 months 1 week ago #22 by coil
Like a lab rat I'm following you Jameson , I'm also going to have a nibble on Castres plus , Connacht can go either way and may take a punt in running , Toulon match potentially a banana peel so side stepping that one.

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3 months 1 week ago #23 by Brent Graham
Glasgow over 32.5 at 19/20

Thinking only positive thoughts LOL

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3 months 1 week ago #24 by coil
Shocking start to the weekend , original fancy Connacht romp home , Scarlets are no longer a rugby side and Castre despite being in the game for a while conceded some very weak tries . Losing on Friday's is so shit .

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3 months 1 week ago #25 by Jameson
Yet another black Friday - also lost on Gloucester overs. I needed a try and Gloucester kick a penalty in the last play 27pts up!
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3 months 1 week ago #26 by Kirky

coil wrote: Shocking start to the weekend , original fancy Connacht romp home , Scarlets are no longer a rugby side and Castre despite being in the game for a while conceded some very weak tries . Losing on Friday's is so shit .

Geez, I feel your pain, it's the pain of Friday nite going-to-hell-in-a-bucket and the twisting of the guts, and I really hate it.
please accept my commiserations :ohmy:

However,
My Friday nite went the opposite way, that unicorn (in my life) of getting Friday nite on the button, and my -6.5 banker came through twice as I doubled-up, and is still intact 4 accas.
Not trying to gloat but I'm walking on clouds atm. :whistle: It's such a great feeling :) :beer
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3 months 1 week ago #27 by Brent Graham
I just cannot catch the Champions Cup - liked Glasgow minus but when line moved out changed to overs - so frustrating but I am almost laughing at it now, numb to the pain

Pleased you are going well Kirky!

Bulls v Bordeaux preview

Bordeaux over 23.5 (was hoping for around 19.5)

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3 months 1 week ago #28 by Brent Graham
Struggling to muster enthusiasm for the Challenge Cup and a speculative HT/FT play for me in Oyonnax v Cheetahs

Oyo/Che at 5/1

Lions and Sharks games will get a good look in the morning

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3 months 1 week ago #29 by southpaw
Stade v Storrmers -

I expect home side to have a crack tonight, much changed team but still a bit of experience in there. Stormers backline should also have some space.

Pitch is 4G and dry/cold night.

Over 42.5 @ 10/11
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3 months 1 week ago #30 by Pablo

southpaw wrote: Stade v Storrmers -

I expect home side to have a crack tonight, much changed team but still a bit of experience in there. Stormers backline should also have some space.

Pitch is 4G and dry/cold night.

Over 42.5 @ 10/11


Strongly agree on this one, will be cold but low humidity and synthetic pitch. SF backline is pretty young but not the rest of the lineup nor the bench.

I expected this line to open around 47.5-48.5 so yeah value there on the overs.
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3 months 1 week ago #31 by southpaw
Bulls over 34.5 @ 17/20

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3 months 1 week ago #32 by Pablo
I have to take Saracens o38.5 @1.80 2u

There will be strong wind but humidity low and synthetic pitch and most important, Lou lineup is shit. I hope Saracens bounce back in fashion against a depleted side.

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3 months 1 week ago #33 by TheAdmiral
Taken Leinster under 30.5

Leinster attack is poor compared to previous years, cold day in Leicester today and a decent Leicester defence

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3 months 1 week ago #34 by southpaw
Beautiful points fest at Loftus, love a game like this.

Racing over 43.5 @ 17/20

Expecting a home crowd pleaser effort from them.

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3 months 1 week ago #35 by Pablo
Italian referees are a big pile of shit. Piardi gifting Leinster 10 points.

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3 months 1 week ago #36 by Pablo
Courtney Lawes you beauty. Two jackal penalties in their own 22 and another couple of turnovers more.

I thought red card was going the fuck our bet.

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3 months 1 week ago #37 by southpaw
Crazy scenes at Stade v Stormers game towards end. Thankfully the overs landed and it’s been a strong day on overs on the right games.

Trying to decide if to follow Pablo on Sarries overs or hold until some of the challenge cup matches tomorrow for points.

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3 months 1 week ago #38 by SirDesChamps00
Saracens have been nothing but an embarrassment here. A complete and utter embarrassment

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3 months 1 week ago #39 by SirDesChamps00
Pablo mate ya having a nightmare on these French teams this weekend, Castres last night now Lyon

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3 months 1 week ago #40 by Pablo
No comment on Saracens apart from they are a shitty side. Losing against a well depleted side that count almost every away match this season as heavy loss (40-10 in Pau, 45-0 in Toulouse, 46-10 in Bordeaux, 38-20 in Oyonnax, 35-14 in La Rochelle)

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3 months 1 week ago #41 by Pablo

SirDesChamps00 wrote: Pablo mate ya having a nightmare on these French teams this weekend, Castres last night now Lyon


Finally I didnt bet on Castres, only the unders so some benefit there. Worse is that I was on Cheetahs and Oyo sneaked it in the 87th minute ...

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3 months 1 week ago #42 by SirDesChamps00

Pablo wrote: No comment on Saracens apart from they are a shitty side. Losing against a well depleted side that count almost every away match this season as heavy loss (40-10 in Pau, 45-0 in Toulouse, 46-10 in Bordeaux, 38-20 in Oyonnax, 35-14 in La Rochelle)


Fully agree. Think Farrell is absolutely useless

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3 months 1 week ago #43 by Pablo

Pablo wrote: I have to take Saracens o38.5 @1.80 2u

There will be strong wind but humidity low and synthetic pitch and most important, Lou lineup is shit. I hope Saracens bounce back in fashion against a depleted side.


Rugby gods in my side.

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3 months 1 week ago #44 by southpaw

Pablo wrote:

Pablo wrote: I have to take Saracens o38.5 @1.80 2u

There will be strong wind but humidity low and synthetic pitch and most important, Lou lineup is shit. I hope Saracens bounce back in fashion against a depleted side.


Rugby gods in my side.


Pablo take a bow, you deserved that one!! Top stuff.
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3 months 1 week ago #45 by Jameson
I cannot pick a winner lately - 5 bet losing streak. Looking for redemption today - help!

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3 months 1 week ago #46 by Jameson
So, here we go. I think +21pts is to high and I'm on Ospreys.The scrum should be solid and the backs are fine. Only issue is the O's bench and the forwards there look a bit green so if the lions pack fancy it then it could get a bit nasty late on.

Come on O's! :-o

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3 months 1 week ago #47 by southpaw
La Rochelle over 23.5 @ 10/11

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3 months 1 week ago #48 by Brent Graham
Lions v Ospreys Preview

Over 62.5 at 1/1

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3 months 1 week ago #49 by Brent Graham
Just seen a points quote of 36.5 in Dragons game so weather likely to be foul

Dragons v Sharks Preview

Dragons on the board 5/2

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3 months 1 week ago #50 by Pablo
u37.5 dragons-sharks @1.83 2u

Weather will be awful by kickoff time, synthetic pith I know but heavy rain and strong wind suggest me that should be a scrappy match. Dragons back row with two fetchers I expect them to be on point in defence.

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