Bulls v Lions, Gallagher Prem Week 12 + other rugby 26-28 Jan

it's months away but Boyles have prices up last 16 Champions Cup games. One that jumps at me -

La Rochelle 8/11 win or -2 @ 10/11

I just cannot see them falling short in CT again like Dec. Assume no further injuries by then they will have some key players back compared to when lost in CT.

Yes like that one South
Also like Munster +8 at Northampton
The English side are flying and played a great game at Thomond last weekend.
But Munster should be bolstered by returnees from injury. Snyman is expected back in March. Risky with break for 6N but that window affects all the sides.

I had to bet on Bristol @2.20 2u

Not the best of years for Bristol but Bath has plenty of internationals (at least 10 called up between England and Scotland) out during this week and not sure they will be back for weekend match. If they´re back I assume my error but if not this odds are to high.

Speculative bet but the odds worth it.

Pablo Bristol is a good call this weekend.

All English teams are without their England internationals this weekend.

Bristol will only be missing Genge, however there has been talk that he might actually play as he needs the game time. Sinckler, Malins, and Randall were not called up so this also helps Bristol.

Bath on the other hand will be missing their starting props Obano and Stuart, Underhill and Barbeary (Banned) mossing in the back row.

Captain Ben Spencer, Max Ojomoh, Lawrence, and Muir all unavailable too.

Finn Russell has been on Scotland media duties this week, but this fixture sits outside the international test window so he has to be available for his club, whether they allow him to 'rest' or not is another thing. Same for Redpath.

When both teams come out I expect this line to swing heavily towards Bristol. It'll be a competitive game but Bath are not favourites at all.

It's not properly clear to me at this stage, but I think that all of the favourites are vulnerable this week due the 6N camps.
Same for French Top 14.
In the past I've hurt myself on this weekend, so I'm being ultra careful.
I'm thinking that there'll be movement on the caps after team announcements

Took Lions +15.5 @ 1.86.

Cap is 5 points too high for me.

Kirky wrote: It's not properly clear to me at this stage, but I think that all of the favourites are vulnerable this week due the 6N camps.
Same for French Top 14.
In the past I've hurt myself on this weekend, so I'm being ultra careful.
I'm thinking that there'll be movement on the caps after team announcements

France released Jaminet, Halagahu, Abadie (all Toulon), Gailleton from Pau, Barlot from Castres and Roumat from Toulouse.

Stade Français +10.5 @1.85 2u

After confirmed players releasing I have to take this line. SF after two weeks rotations in Champions Cup and only with the absence of Gabrillagues. Bordeaux without almost their startint backline apart from Buros (Lucu, Jalibert, Moefana, Depoortere, Penaud and LBB). Bordeaux pack will be strong but backline decimated and SF should take the oportunity to earn at least the LBP.

Bulls v Lions - u57.5 (Palacebet)

Big rain expected in Pretoria today.
Coupled with the fact that all of the Lions' away games this season was an unders fest

damn i wanted to go overs - any Pretoria locals latest update on conditions?

Overcast at the moment, but no rain imminent. Did not rain much overnight, if any. Will update closer to KO...

Taken over 51.5 @ 5/6

Still no rain in sight...

yeah , not a drop in sight and points flowing like the river Nile in full season , will be a miracle if under 57.5 arrives , no bet on the Saints just yet , Newcastle have gone 3 up , not exciting stuff , more money coming for Bath when I had hoped it would go the other way , lets see , no bet yet .

What a fucking joke the last Bulls try. This muppet called referee not allowing Lions nº9 to tackle but still awarded the try.

Bristol and SF in, nice end of the month.

Pablo wrote: Bristol and SF in, nice end of the month.

Very nice pablo.

Do you have a view on Toulon La Rochelle? I see pints 41.5 and La Rochelle 17.5, is a tempting overs play.

southpaw wrote:

Pablo wrote: Bristol and SF in, nice end of the month.

Very nice pablo.

Do you have a view on Toulon La Rochelle? I see pints 41.5 and La Rochelle 17.5, is a tempting overs play.

I got suckered into an overs play after the 2 quick tries - well and truly f@cked now, no score in the 2nd half after 64 mins ffs.

Jameson wrote:

southpaw wrote:

Pablo wrote: Bristol and SF in, nice end of the month.

Very nice pablo.

Do you have a view on Toulon La Rochelle? I see pints 41.5 and La Rochelle 17.5, is a tempting overs play.

I got suckered into an overs play after the 2 quick tries - well and truly f@cked now, no score in the 2nd half after 64 mins ffs.

Which game?

Jameson wrote:

southpaw wrote:

Pablo wrote: Bristol and SF in, nice end of the month.

Very nice pablo.

Do you have a view on Toulon La Rochelle? I see pints 41.5 and La Rochelle 17.5, is a tempting overs play.

I got suckered into an overs play after the 2 quick tries - well and truly f@cked now, no score in the 2nd half after 64 mins ffs.

I was involved in that over 43.5 and very nice match from minute 10 to 70. Proper french rugby with wasted chances and lack of intelligence.

About Rct-Sr I have Toulon dnb in a combo just for 1u and another unit in the o41.5 @1.80

Little interest so low stakes there.

southpaw wrote:

Jameson wrote:

southpaw wrote:

Pablo wrote: Bristol and SF in, nice end of the month.

Very nice pablo.

Do you have a view on Toulon La Rochelle? I see pints 41.5 and La Rochelle 17.5, is a tempting overs play.

I got suckered into an overs play after the 2 quick tries - well and truly f@cked now, no score in the 2nd half after 64 mins ffs.

Which game?

Apologies - I thought you were referring to the game in play at the time.

I'm getting seriously hurt by overs betting - winning about 1 in 10 at the moment. So much so I'm wondering if there is some sort of bookie bias for overs rather than unders? I'm wondering if more people prefer overs as its a positive bet wanting both teams to score tries etc and they consistently price high knowing punters will still go with it? Probably paranoia lol

EDIT: I'm now going to teach the bookies a lesson and gone over 43 @11/10

Racing Toulouse tonight Pablo, your thoughts? Overs?

Kicking myself for not going big into the total overs last night, both came in, only had an interest in the La Rochelle overs and that turned out to be a sweat after looking nailed on at half hour mark.

Will wait for pablos input but think 50 or 51 line overs will be a play under the roof.

49.5 the line now! Hoping a rubber stamp from pablo.

About Racing-Toulouse I took o50.5 but just 1u stake @1.91. in bet365 49.5 at @1.83. It may be a free flowing 80 points match or a scrappy 30 poins match but I think line should stay above 50.

Racing defence is the best of the competition and ST attack away from home is far of their best. Personally I don´t like Mallia at 10 (I´d put Kinghorn there and the argentinian at fullback) and Le Bail at 9 (I hope Hall brings some pace in the second half) but personally I like Meliande at 10 for the home side, what I saw from him in previous matches makes me to go overs here.

Just 1u, low confidence.

PD: my french friend is going confident on ST +8 @1.55 2u but I have nothing in the handicap myself

Some ridiculously sh1t decision making in this game

How pathetic are Racing here. Frauds so far

Hard ever have a bet again on French rugby after this. On the overs, how many chances have Racing fkd up? So slow to do everything. What a sh1t weekend