All Football Tips w/c 12th February

Nice job over the weekend on the EPL plays Chris, cleaned up nicely

Bad beat on the Nigeria outright Vann, hope you managed to hedge when they went 1-0 up.

EPL Monday
Palace vs Chelsea

All of a sudden we have a proper battle for the top 4 spot now. In all likelihood 5th place will also get a UCL spot for next season, so added motivation for teams to string some wins along. Maybe Chelsea can get on a run and add some more pressure to Villa.

Palace, Hodgson and the board are under immense pressure and it wont be long before some departures take place. Hodgson surely on last legs now. To be honest, I feel for the guy as his been dealt an unfair hand.

If you take out Dias, De Bruyne and Haaland from City, or Van Dijk, Trent and Salah from Liverpool or even Saliba, Odegaard and Saka from Arsenal and all of them will struggle. Palace have lost their three main guys to injuries, their spine of the team in Guehi, Eze and Olise, plus add Doucoure and it's no wonder they are struggling.

Chelsea were very impressive against Villa in the FA Cup Replay. However, I still cant trust them to win comfortably and regularly yet, but tonights game should be an ideal time for them to get another three points. Palace away is always tough but this Palace side is missing their 4 stars and they should struggle tonight. I think Chelsea could pepper them with shots while Palace try to play on the counter. Enzo was impressive against Villa and I like his over 1.5 shots line at 11/10 tonight. The Chelsea win at 8/10 is another bet I like.

Due to my lack of trust in this Chelsea team I am taking the double instead as a bet builder over at Sportingbet. Better odds and less risky imo than the two singles.

Chelsea win & Enzo 2+ shots - 24/10

Thanks Vin. Took cover at 19/20 when markets opened so made a few pence. Would have preferred the Nigeria win though.

Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Amazing run this. Chelsea have won the last 13 in all competitions. I think when managers are under real pressure they revert to type ie last night David Moyes went straight to his ability to set up a defense after the disaster of the January transfer window. When that failed spectacularly he took way too long to find plan B. Roy Hodgson is also in big trouble and his go to is match the formation and go for goals. I expect this match to be pretty open and the goal keepers will be busy.

BTTS and over 2.5 match goals @ 23/20

Chelsea over 2.5 match goals @ 9/4

Nicely done Vann, Chelsea deliver in added time for both our bets

I find it strange that UEFA are expanding the "Greatest Club Competition in the World" next year. Tonight we have a last sixteen match with the away side rated at 2/10. What is the point of having more mis-matches at the pointy end?

UEFA CHAMPS LEAGUE

Copenhagen have not played a competitive match for two months and Real Madrid have around 70% of their defenders injured. Not the stats for a big strike on the evening so taking a few beers on

Over 2.5 match goals at

FC Copenhagen + RB Leipzig @ 33/20

UCL Wednesday
PSG vs Sociedad

One of my favorite teams to bet over at La Liga is Real Sociedad. There style of play means that they aggressively try to press the ball and are comfortable with their opponents having the ball. They love quick fouls to break the tempo of the game and make it very stop start.

In La Liga refs generally blow for every foul and they very rarely play advantage. However with the UCL, since we have refs from all over Europe, its difficult to judge what they will do. Luckily tonight we have an Italian ref for this game and I think he should be foul friendly, as PSG at home will try to play on the front foot tonight and get an advantage ahead of the second leg.

Sociedad average over 16 fouls per game in La Liga and thats with Spanish refs who are well aware of their tactics. In their six UCL group matches this season they average 15 fouls per game (14,13,15,18,10 and 21). Take into account that for these six games they had an English ref twice, a French ref, a Swiss ref and a Ukrainian ref. All these refs are not typically card or foul friendly, yet Sociedad still had a high foul count.

The Italian ref tonight averages 5 cards per game in Italy and is a no nonsense ref. He will penalize Sociedad for every foul, and I am sure Sociedad will be trying to disrupt the momentum of PSG, since this is a knockout game away from home.

Sociedad will play on the counter, and try to disrupt the game as often as possible. I think their fouls line is a massive runner tonight.

Real Sociedad over 13.5 fouls - 0.81/1 (Sunbet)

Great logic there Vin. Looks like a lock. I am going to go for the simple old persons bet

Lazio BTTS - Yes into
PSG over 1.5 goals
@ 5/2

Saturday European Soccer

EPL

Brentford First Half Goal - 15/10
Arsenal, Spurs & City all to score 2+ Goals - 17/10

BUNDESLIGA

Leverkusen & Stuttgart both to score 2+ Goals - 11/10

CHAMPIONSHIP

Plymouth/Leeds BTTS & Over 2.5 - 9/10

ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO

Wrexham to score 2+ Goals - 8/10

LA LIGA

Celta/Barca BTTS & Over 2.5 - 9/10

EPL

Some speculative long shots for Saturday Games:

Brentford vs Liverpool
Liverpool just cant seem to get things right in the early KO and a crazy stat is they havent even won away at Brentford in the PL. Toney will probably give Liverpool another headache and if theres any team that can break that Liverpool high line through pace and directness its Brentford.

Ivan Toney to give an assist - 7/1
Van Dijk to get a card - 7/1

Burnley vs Arsenal
Burnley are a shambles at defending set pieces, they look like they could concede every time a corner or free kick is swung into the box. I like the odds of either CB for Arsenal scoring tomorrow so some beers on both guys.

Gabriel to score - 7/1
Saliba to score - 14/1

Villarreal vs Getafe

This Villarreal team does not look like any of Unai Emery teams from the past. This Villarreal does not defend as good as those teams.

Villarreal allows 1.53xG per 90 minutes, which is the second highest in Spain.
They allow the most shots, the most penalty area entries and the most crosses.

Getafe improved their offensive performance, averaging 1.20 xG per 90 minutes, the highest average since xG recordings started in 2015.
Also, they are 4th in terms of number of penalty area crosses.
as for their defence, Getafe are in the top half in La Liga.

Villarreal will miss Pino, Foyth and Parejo, all injured.

Bet 1: Getafe +0.5 @1.90
Bet 2: BTTS - Yes @1.80

Inter vs Salernitana

Inter is at the top of the table and Salernitana is last.

OK, this is not enough, as we've seen plenty of surprises with bottom teams getting results away to the top ones.
Inter has the best defence in Serie A and Salernitana really is the poorest team with a poor attack.

This season they average only 0.74 xG per 90 minutes, and in the last 6-7 matches they haven't created even one xG.

I'm not going for a -2 or -2.5 spread, as Inter have a Champions League match upcoming.
I will however play Inter to win to nil, which is very plausible.

Bet: Inter win to Nil @1.79

Nice job tonight Quill, brilliant way to start the betting weekend

Saturday acca

Notts Forest draw into wins by
Liverpool
Arsenal
Villa
Newcastle
Spurs
Man City
@ 68/1

Brentford v Liverpool

Hoping for goals here

Both halves over 1.5 @ 23/10


and taking a little fifer

Over 2.5 match goals at Brentford + Man City
BTTS - Yes at Fulham
Arsenal over 1.5 match goals
Newcastle win
@ 15/2

Usual hopeful acca -

Btts yes @ 43/1

Preston V Blackburn
Stoke V Coventry
Fulham V Aston Villa
Newcastle V Bournemouth
Fleetwood V Barnsley
Northampton V Bristol Rovers
Swindon V MK Dons
Salford V Barrow

Goal difference becoming a real focus for the top 3. I think City try to make up some ground today-

City over 17.5 shots @ 8/10

Have guests for the weekend but will catch most of the game later.

All four sides today have shown signs of being in reasonable goal scoring form so taking

BTTS Yes at Sheffield Utd + Luton @ 16/10


Luton v Man United

Last met early November when ManU bossed possession 64/36. Also won the corner count 11/3 off that possession. I expect United to run close to that 60% again today feel this is value

Most corners
Man United @ 21/20

Also fancy the second half to be highest scoring so taking

Second half BTTS - Yes @ 7/4